THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND THE WTO: INSTITUTIONAL EVOLUTION AND ADAPTATION. CEPS Policy Brief No. 28/December

Overview. Questions about the interface between the multilateral climate regime embodied in the Kyoto Protocol and the multilateral trade regime embodied in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have become especially timely since the fall of 2001. At that time, ministerial-level meetings in Marrakech and Doha agreed to advance the agendas, respectively, for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and for negotiations on further agreements at the WTO. There have been concerns that each of these multilateral arrangements could constrain the effectiveness of the other, and these concerns will become more salient with the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. There are questions about whether and how the rights and obligations of the members of the WTO and the parties to the Protocol may conflict. Of particular concern is whether provisions in the Protocol, as well as government policies and business activities undertaken in keeping with those provisions, may conflict with the WTO non-discrimination principles of national treatment and most-favoured nation treatment. The WTO agreements that are potentially relevant to climate change issues include many of the individual Uruguay Round agreements and subsequent agreements as well. The principal elements of the Kyoto Protocol that are particularly relevant are its provisions concerning emissions trading, the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation, enforcement, and parties’ policies and measures. In combination, therefore, there are numerous potential points of intersection between the elements of the Kyoto Protocol and the WTO agreements. Previous studies have clarified many issues, as they have focused on particular aspects of the regimes’ relationships. Yet, some analyses suggest that the two regimes are largely compatible and even mutually reinforcing, while others suggest that there are significant conflicts between them. Those and other studies are referenced in the ‘suggestions for further reading’ section at the end of the paper.1 The present paper seeks to expand on those studies by providing additional breadth and depth to understanding of the issues. The analysis gives special attention to key issues on the agenda – i.e. issues that are particularly problematic because of the likelihood of occurrence of specific conflicts and the significance of their economic and/or political consequences. The paper adopts a modified ‘triage’ approach, which classifies points of intersection as (a) highly problematic and clearly in need of further attention, (b) perhaps problematic but less urgent, and (c) apparently not problematic, at least at this point in time. The principal conclusions are that: · The missions and objectives of the two regimes are largely compatible, and their operations are potentially mutually reinforcing in several respects. · Some provisions of the multilateral agreements that may superficially seem at odds are not likely to become particularly problematic in practice. · ‘Domestic policies and measures’ that governments may undertake in the context of the Protocol could pose difficult issues in the context of WTO dispute cases. · Recent WTO agreements and dispute cases acknowledge the legitimacy of the ‘precautionary principle’ and are thus consistent with the environmental protection objectives of the Protocol. · The relative newness of the climate regime creates opportunities for institutional adaptation, as compared with the constraints of tradition in the trade-investment regime. · The prospect of largely independent evolutionary paths for the two regimes poses a series of issues about future international regime design and management, which may require new institutional arrangements. In sum, the present paper thus finds that although there are some areas of interaction that are problematic, the two regimes may nevertheless co-exist in relative harmony in other respects –more like ‘neighbours’ than either ‘friends’ or ‘foes’, as Krist (2001) has suggested.

Long-term Responses of Mountain Ecosystems to Environmental Changes: Resilience, Adjustment, and Vulnerability

The steep environmental gradients of mountain ecosystems over short distances reflect large gradients of several climatic parameters and hence provide excellent possibilities for ecological research on the effects of environmental change. To gain a better understanding of the dynamics of abiotic and biotic parameters of mountain ecosystems, long-term records are required since permanent plots in mountain regions cover in the best case about 50 - 70 years. In order to extend investigations of ecological dynamics beyond these temporal limitations of permanent plots, paleoecological approaches can be used if the sampling resolution can be adapted to ecological research questions, e.g. a sample every 10 years. Paleoecological studies in mountain ecosystems can provide new ecological insights through the combination of different spatial and temporal scales. [f we thus improve our understanding of processes across both steep environmental gradients and different time scales, we may be able to better estimate ecosystem responses to current and future environmental change (Ammann et al. 1993; Lotter et al. 1997). The complexity of ecological interactions in mountain regions forces us to concentrate on a number of sub-systems - without losing sight of the wider context. Here, we summarize a few case studies on the effects of Holocene climate change and disturbance on the vegetation of the Western Alps. To categorize the main response modes of vegetation to climatic change and disturbance in the Alps we use three classes of ecological behaviour: "resilience", "adjustment", and "vulnerability", We assume a resilient (or elastic) behaviour if vegetation is able to recover to its former state, regaining important ecosystem characteristics, such as floristic composition, biodiversity, species abundances, and biomass (e.g. Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1). Conversely, vegetation displacements may occur in response to climatic change and/or disturbance. In some cases, this may culminate in irreversible large-scale processes such as species and/or community extinctions. Such drastic developments indicate high ecosystem vulnerability (or inelasticity or instability, for detailed definitions see Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1) to climatic change and/or disturbance. In this sense, the "vulnerability" (or instability) of an ecosystem is expressed by the degree of failure to recover to the original state before disturbance and/or climatic change. Between these two extremes (resilience vs. vulnerability), ecosystem adjustments to climatic change and/or disturbance may occur, including the appearance of new and/or the disappearance of old species. The term "adjustment" is hence used to indicate the response of vegetational communities, which adapted to new environmental conditions without losing their main character. For forest ecosystems, we assume vegetational adjustments (rather than vulnerability) if the dominant (or co-dominant) tree species are not outnumbered or replaced by formerly unimportant plant species or new invaders. Adaptation as a genetic process is not discussed here and will require additional pbylogeographical studies (that incorporate the analysis of ancient DNA) in order to fully understand the distributions of ecotypes.

Proposal on debt for climate adaptation swaps: a strategy for growth and economic transformation of Caribbean economies

ECLAC advocates that the Caribbean’s high debt dilemma was not principally driven by policy missteps, or the international financial crisis. Rather, it finds its roots in external shocks, compounded by the inherent structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities confronting Caribbean SIDS and their limited capacity to respond. A major factor has been the underperformance of the export sector, partly due to a decline in competitiveness and a slowdown in economic activity especially among the tourism-dependent economies. Caribbean countries have also accumulated debt as a consequence of increased expenditures to address the impact of extreme events and climate change attendant difficulties. Most Caribbean countries are located in the hurricane belt and are also prone to earthquakes and other hazards. Indeed, a disaster resulting in damage and losses in excess of 5 per cent of GDP can be expected to hit any Caribbean country every few years. Moreover, over the period 2000-2014, it is estimated that the economic cost of natural disasters in Caribbean countries was in excess of US$30.7 billion. The English Speaking Caribbean countries are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters.

A longitudinal study of employee adaptation to organizational change: The role of change-related information and change-related self-efficacy

This study examined the role of information, efficacy, and 3 stressors in predicting adjustment to organizational change. Participants were 589 government employees undergoing an 18-month process of regionalization. To examine if the predictor variables had long-term effects on adjustment, the authors assessed psychological well-being, client engagement, and job satisfaction again at a 2-year follow-up. At Time 1, there was evidence to suggest that information was indirectly related to psychological well-being, client engagement, and job satisfaction, via its positive relationship to efficacy. There also was evidence to suggest that efficacy was related to reduced stress appraisals, thereby heightening client engagement. Last, there was consistent support for the stress-buffering role of Time I self-efficacy in the prediction of Time 2 job satisfaction.

Ventilation rate and behavioural responses of two species of intertidal goby (Pisces : Gobiidae) at extremes of environmental temperature

We investigated the behavioural responses of two gobiid fish species to temperature to determine if differences in behaviour and ventilation rate might explain any apparent vertical zonation. A survey of the shore at Manly, Moreton Bay revealed Favonigobius exquisitus to dominate the lower shore and Pseudogobius sp. 4 the upper shore. These species were exposed to a range of temperatures (15-40 degreesC) in aquaria for up to 6 h. At 20 degreesC F. exquisitus exhibited a mean gill ventilation rate of 26 +/- 1.4 bpm (beats per minute) differing significantly from Pseudogobius, which ventilated at a fivefold greater rate of 143 +/- 6 bpm. The ventilation rate in F. exquisitus underwent a fivefold increase from normal local water temperature (20 degreesC) to high temperature (35 degreesC) conditions, whereas that of Pseudogobius did not even double, suggesting that Pseudogobius sp. is a better thermal regulator than F. exquisitus. While both species emerged from the water at high temperatures (>30 degreesC) the behaviours they exhibited while immersed at high temperature were quite different. F. exquisitus undertook vertical displacement movements we interpret as an avoidance response, whereas Pseudogobius sp. appeared to use a coping strategy involving movements that might renew the water mass adjacent to its body. The thermal tolerances and behaviours of F. exquisitus and Pseudogobius sp. are in broad agreement with their vertical distribution on the shore.

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Position information but not force information is used in adapting to changes in environmental dynamics

This study investigated how movement error is evaluated and used to change feedforward commands following a change in the environmental dynamics. In particular, we addressed the question of whether only position-error information is used or whether information about the force-field direction can also be used for rapid adaptation to changes in the environmental dynamics. Subjects learned to move in a position-dependent force field (PF) with a parabolic profile and the dynamics of a negative spring, which produced lateral force to the left of the target hand path. They adapted very rapidly, dramatically reducing lateral error after a single trial. Several times during training, the strength of the PF was unexpectedly doubled (PF2) for two trials. This again created a large leftward deviation, which was greatly reduced on the second PF2 trial, and an aftereffect when the force field subsequently returned to its original strength. The aftereffect was abolished if the second PF2 trial was replaced by an oppositely directed velocity-dependent force field (VF). During subsequent training in the VF, immediately after having adapted to the PF, subjects applied a force that assisted the force field for similar to 15 trials, indicating that they did not use information about the force-field direction. We concluded that the CNS uses only the position error for updating the internal model of the environmental dynamics and modifying feedforward commands. Although this strategy is not necessarily optimal, it may be the most reliable strategy for iterative improvement in performance.

Environmental features which limit organization and industry viability:a study of the footwear industry

This thesis proposes a conceptual framework for the analysis of organizational environments. Three primary segments of the task environment - the transaction environment, the industrial environment and the ecotone are delineated. The interrelationships between the organization and these three environmental segments are examined. It is suggested that the task environment i) defines the nature of the task confronting the organization and the economic, political and social position of the organization within this network; ii) influences the way organizations and industries are organized; iii) prevents recognition of the need for adaptation and change; and iv) limits the alternatives available to the organization should changes in the environment render existing technology, behaviour and structures obsolete. The British Footwear Industry provides an example of how this framework might be used to investigate the problem of industry decline and organization viability. It is argued that the explanations usually put forth to explain organization failure and industrial decline have not taken into consideration the environmental factors which affect organization and industry viability. The shift from national markets to global markets has altered the composition of the task environment and has changed the nature of competition from firm versus firm to environment versus environment. Organizations do not compete in the market, their products do. These products are often produced by organizations embedded in environments which are significantly different from the one in which the focal organization and industry are embedded.

A goal-based modeling approach to develop requirements of an adaptive system with environmental uncertainty

Dynamically adaptive systems (DASs) are intended to monitor the execution environment and then dynamically adapt their behavior in response to changing environmental conditions. The uncertainty of the execution environment is a major motivation for dynamic adaptation; it is impossible to know at development time all of the possible combinations of environmental conditions that will be encountered. To date, the work performed in requirements engineering for a DAS includes requirements monitoring and reasoning about the correctness of adaptations, where the DAS requirements are assumed to exist. This paper introduces a goal-based modeling approach to develop the requirements for a DAS, while explicitly factoring uncertainty into the process and resulting requirements. We introduce a variation of threat modeling to identify sources of uncertainty and demonstrate how the RELAX specification language can be used to specify more flexible requirements within a goal model to handle the uncertainty. © 2009 Springer Berlin Heidelberg.

Corporate environmental and climate change disclosures:empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Purpose-In this article, we examine the nature and the extent of corporate environmental and climate change disclosures in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/ approach-For this purpose, we have undertaken a content analysis of annual reports related to the year 2008 and websites of the 100 largest companies (according to market capitalization) listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange. We have used 24 content analysis categories to capture the relevant disclosures related to climate change and other environmental issues. Findings-Key findings of our analysis suggest that the level of environmental and climate change disclosures is very low in Bangladesh. Although 91% of companies made disclosures in at least one category, most companies disclosed information only on the ''energy usage'' category, which is a mandatory requirement. Even fewer companies made disclosures in the specific areas of climate change. No disclosure was made in the significant categories such as GHG emissions. The second most popular category related to climate change was adaptation measures. Among the other environmental disclosures, a significant finding is that only 5% of (website 6%) companies disclosed that they had an effluent treatment plant. Closer examination of the nature of disclosures suggests that most of the disclosures are positive and descriptive in nature. Originality/value-As far as we are aware, this is the first study of its kind in Bangladesh which systematically examines corporate climate change disclosures as a particular focus of research. Copyright © 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Climate change produces significant social and economic impacts in most parts of the world, thus global action is needed to address climate change. In this chapter, the different possibilities of mitigation are explored from different points of view, and analyse the possibilities of adaptation to climate change. First, substantial reduction of GHG emission is needed, on the other hand adaptation action must deal with the inevitable impacts. According to the assessment of the chapter, it is essential that coordinated actions be taken at an EU level. In our argumentation, a macroeconomic model is used for the cost- benefit analysis of GHG gas emissions reduction. The GHG emission structure is analysed on European and global level. Even in the case of a successful mitigation strategy there rest the long-term effects of climate change which will need a coherent adaptation strategy to be dealt with. Although certain adaptation measures already have been taken, these initiatives are still very modest, and insufficient to deal with the economic effects of climate change properly.

Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change

Climate change affects both economy and society in several ways throughout the world. Therefore, well-targeted global and regional actions must be taken. In this paper I assess the different options for climate change mitigation policies and analyse the possibilities of adaptation methods. I will focus on three aspects: cost-efficiency, innovation and flexibility.

Specificity, stability and comparative physiology of coral-Symbiodinium mutualisms: Evaluating the potential for acclimation and/or adaptation in reef corals

The relationship between reef corals and endosymbiotic dinoflagellates is fundamental to the existence of coral reefs. To evaluate the fidelity of coral-Symbiodinium mutualisms, corals maintained in aquaria for years were analyzed by denaturant gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Comparing Symbiodinium populations of captive aquarium colonies with known associations in nature is a practical way of examining partner flexibility. The finding of "normal" symbiont populations in corals existing under highly variable conditions supports the premise that most coral colonies possess stable associations. High sensitivity real-time PCR (rtPCR) was used to evaluate background populations of the putatively stress-tolerant Symbiodinium D in reef corals of the Caribbean. Analyses of samples collected during periods of environmental stability indicate the ability of Symbiodinium D to associate with a wider diversity of host taxa than previously recognized. To gain a broader perspective with regard to the ecology of Symbiodinium D1a, rtPCR and DGGE were used to evaluate the symbiont populations of reef corals from Barbados before and after the 2005 mass coral bleaching. Background populations were observed in 56% of the host genera prior to observations of bleaching. These findings indicate that 'stress', not 'bleaching', caused the displacement of 'natural' symbiont population and the opportunistic proliferation of D1a in many host taxa. Of the 12 host taxa monitored before and after the bleaching event, there was a 40% increase in colonies hosting Symbiodinium D1a. Together, these studies elucidate the mechanism responsible for recent observations reporting the emergence of Symbiodinium D following thermal disturbances. These observations are now most easily explained as the disproportionate growth of existing in hospite symbiont populations, rather than novel symbiont acquisition subsequent to bleaching. To evaluate the comparative "fitness" of corals able to host multiple symbiont types, rates of calcification were measured in P. verrucosa hosting either Symbiodinium C1b-c or D1 at elevated temperature. Rates of calcification decreased significantly for both host-symbiont combinations, but differences attributable to symbiont composition were not detected. This research improves our knowledge of the symbiosis biology and ecology of reef corals and contributes information necessary to most accurately predict the response of these ecosystems to global climate changes.

Adaptation in knowledge-based teams: An examination of team composition, leader sensegiving, and cognitive, behavioral, and motivational mechanisms

Organizations are increasingly relying on teams to do the work that has traditionally been done by individuals. At the same time, the environments in which these organizations and teams operate have been becoming progressively more complex and uncertain. These trends raise important questions about the factors that enable teams to adapt. In response to these questions, the current study sought to identify the cognitive, behavioral, and motivational processes and emergent states that promote a team's adaptation to unforeseen changes and novel events, and the team compositional characteristics and leadership processes that enabled these processes and emergent states. Two hundred twenty two undergraduate students from a large Southeastern University composed 74 3-person teams, and participated in a computerized decision-making simulation where each team formed the governing body (i.e., Mayor's cabinet) for two separate simulated cities, and made strategic decisions about city operations. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three roles, distributing expertise and creating mutual interdependence. External team leader sensegiving was manipulated through video recorded communications from an external team leader. Results indicate that team cognitive ability, achievement striving, and psychological collectivism, as well as external team leader sensegiving, were all related to the similarity and quality of team members' strategy-focused mental models (cognitive emergent states), and to the amount of information sharing among members (behavioral process). In turn, teams with more similar and higher quality mental models, and who shared greater levels of information, were found to have a greater ability to react and adapt to environmental changes, and to have greater levels of decision-making effectiveness. Results indicate a pattern of relationships consistent with hypotheses, and have important implications for organizations and knowledge-based teams charged with management responsibilities. Organizations should staff teams with the compositional characteristics that enable the development of similar and high quality mental models, and that promote information sharing among teammates. Similarly, organizations which train and develop leaders to engage in sensegiving behaviors enable team adaptability and promote enhanced decision-making effectiveness when faced with unforeseen changes and novel situations.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.