Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

Relationship and transaction lending in a crisis

We study how relationship lending and transaction lending varyover the business cycle. We develop a model in which relationshipbanks gather information on their borrowers, which allows them toprovide loans for profitable firms during a crisis. Due to the servicesthey provide, operating costs of relationship-banks are higher thanthose of transaction-banks. In our model, where relationship-bankscompete with transaction-banks, a key result is that relationship-banks charge a higher intermediation spread in normal times, butoffer continuation-lending at more favorable terms than transactionbanks to profitable firms in a crisis. Using detailed credit registerinformation for Italian banks before and after the Lehman Brothers'default, we are able to study how relationship and transaction-banksresponded to the crisis and we test existing theories of relationshipbanking. Our empirical analysis confirms the basic prediction of themodel that relationship banks charged a higher spread before the crisis, offered more favorable continuation-lending terms in response tothe crisis, and suffered fewer defaults, thus confirming the informational advantage of relationship banking.

The relationship between a short measure of health status and physical activity in a workplace population.

Many interventions promoting physical activity (PA) are effective in preventing disease onset, and although studies have found a positive relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQL) and PA, most of these studies have focused on older adults and those with chronic conditions. Less is known regarding the association between PA level and HRQL among healthy adults. Our objective was to analyse the relationship between PA level and HRQL among a sample of 573 employees aged 20-68 taking part in a workplace intervention to promote PA. Measures included HRQL (using a single item) and PA (i.e. Godin Leisure-Time Questionnaire). The Modified Canadian Aerobic Fitness Test (MCAFT) was also completed by 10% of the employees. MET-minute scores (assessing energy expenditure over one week) were compared across HRQL categories using ANOVA. A multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to further examine the relationship between HRQL and PA, controlling for potential covariates. Participants in the higher health status categories were found to report higher levels of energy expenditure (one-way ANOVA, p < 0.001). In the multiple linear regression model, each unit increase in health status level translated in a mean increase of 356 MET-minutes in energy expenditure (p < 0.001). This single-item assessment of health status explained six percent of the variance in energy expenditure. The study concludes that higher energy expenditure through PA among an adult workplace population is positively associated with increased health status, and it also suggests that a single-item HRQL measure is suitable for community- and population-based studies, reducing response burden and research costs.

The role of unions in an endogenous growth model with human capital

In this paper we study the relationship between unions and growth in a two-sector overlapping generations model with altruism and humancapital. This relationship depends on the interaction between the technology in the sector that produces human capital, the degreeof unionization of the economy and the operativeness of the bequest motive.

Selecting statistical models to study the relationship between soybean yield and soil physical properties

Statistical models allow the representation of data sets and the estimation and/or prediction of the behavior of a given variable through its interaction with the other variables involved in a phenomenon. Among other different statistical models, are the autoregressive state-space models (ARSS) and the linear regression models (LR), which allow the quantification of the relationships among soil-plant-atmosphere system variables. To compare the quality of the ARSS and LR models for the modeling of the relationships between soybean yield and soil physical properties, Akaike's Information Criterion, which provides a coefficient for the selection of the best model, was used in this study. The data sets were sampled in a Rhodic Acrudox soil, along a spatial transect with 84 points spaced 3 m apart. At each sampling point, soybean samples were collected for yield quantification. At the same site, soil penetration resistance was also measured and soil samples were collected to measure soil bulk density in the 0-0.10 m and 0.10-0.20 m layers. Results showed autocorrelation and a cross correlation structure of soybean yield and soil penetration resistance data. Soil bulk density data, however, were only autocorrelated in the 0-0.10 m layer and not cross correlated with soybean yield. The results showed the higher efficiency of the autoregressive space-state models in relation to the equivalent simple and multiple linear regression models using Akaike's Information Criterion. The resulting values were comparatively lower than the values obtained by the regression models, for all combinations of explanatory variables.

Cognitive errors assessed by observer ratings in bipolar affective disorder: relationship with symptoms and therapeutic alliance

The construct of cognitive errors is clinically relevant for cognitive therapy of mood disorders. Beck's universality hypothesis postulates the relevance of negative cognitions in all subtypes of mood disorders, as well as positive cognitions for manic states. This hypothesis has rarely been empirically addressed for patients presenting bipolar affective disorder (BD). In-patients (n = 30) presenting with BD were interviewed, as were 30 participants of a matched control group. Valid and reliable observer-rater methodology for cognitive errors was applied to the session transcripts. Overall, patients make more cognitive errors than controls. When manic and depressive patients were compared, parts of the universality hypothesis were confirmed. Manic symptoms are related to positive and negative cognitive errors. These results are discussed with regard to the main assumptions of the cognitive model for depression; thus adding an argument for extending it to the BD diagnostic group, taking into consideration specificities in terms of cognitive errors. Clinical implications for cognitive therapy of BD are suggested.

LOSS OF EXTRACTION CAPACITY OF MEHLICH-1 AND MONOCALCIUM PHOSPHATE AS A VARIABLE OF REMAINING P AND ITS RELATIONSHIP TO CRITICAL LEVELS OF SOIL PHOSPHORUS AND SULFUR

The Mehlich-1 (M-1) extractant and Monocalcium Phosphate in acetic acid (MCPa) have mechanisms for extraction of available P and S in acidity and in ligand exchange, whether of the sulfate of the extractant by the phosphate of the soil, or of the phosphate of the extractant by the sulfate of the soil. In clayey soils, with greater P adsorption capacity, or lower remaining P (Rem-P) value, which corresponds to soils with greater Phosphate Buffer Capacity (PBC), more buffered for acidity, the initially low pH of the extractants increases over their time of contact with the soil in the direction of the pH of the soil; and the sulfate of the M-1 or the phosphate of the MCPa is adsorbed by adsorption sites occupied by these anions or not. This situation makes the extractant lose its extraction capacity, a phenomenon known as loss of extraction capacity or consumption of the extractant, the object of this study. Twenty soil samples were chosen so as to cover the range of Rem-P (0 to 60 mg L-1). Rem-P was used as a measure of the PBC. The P and S contents available from the soil samples through M-1 and MCPa, and the contents of other nutrients and of organic matter were determined. For determination of loss of extraction capacity, after the rest period, the pH and the P and S contents were measured in both the extracts-soils. Although significant, the loss of extraction capacity of the acidity of the M-1 and MCPa extractants with reduction in the Rem-P value did not have a very expressive effect. A “linear plateau” model was observed for the M-1 for discontinuous loss of extraction capacity of the P content in accordance with reduction in the concentration of the Rem-P or increase in the PBC, suggesting that a discontinuous model should also be adopted for interpretation of available P of soils with different Rem-P values. In contrast, a continuous linear response was observed between the P variables in the extract-soil and Rem-P for the MCPa extractor, which shows increasing loss of extraction capacity of this extractor with an increase in the PBC of the soil, indicating the validity of the linear relationship between the available S of the soil and the PBC, estimated by Rem-P, as currently adopted.

Postmortem pump-driven reperfusion of the vascular system of porcine lungs: towards a new model for surgical training.

PURPOSE: The objective of this experiment is to establish a continuous postmortem circulation in the vascular system of porcine lungs and to evaluate the pulmonary distribution of the perfusate. This research is performed in the bigger scope of a revascularization project of Thiel embalmed specimens. This technique enables teaching anatomy, practicing surgical procedures and doing research under lifelike circumstances. METHODS: After cannulation of the pulmonary trunk and the left atrium, the vascular system was flushed with paraffinum perliquidum (PP) through a heart-lung machine. A continuous circulation was then established using red PP, during which perfusion parameters were measured. The distribution of contrast-containing PP in the pulmonary circulation was visualized on computed tomography. Finally, the amount of leak from the vascular system was calculated. RESULTS: A reperfusion of the vascular system was initiated for 37 min. The flow rate ranged between 80 and 130 ml/min throughout the experiment with acceptable perfusion pressures (range: 37-78 mm Hg). Computed tomography imaging and 3D reconstruction revealed a diffuse vascular distribution of PP and a decreasing vascularization ratio in cranial direction. A self-limiting leak (i.e. 66.8% of the circulating volume) towards the tracheobronchial tree due to vessel rupture was also measured. CONCLUSIONS: PP enables circulation in an isolated porcine lung model with an acceptable pressure-flow relationship resulting in an excellent recruitment of the vascular system. Despite these promising results, rupture of vessel walls may cause leaks. Further exploration of the perfusion capacities of PP in other organs is necessary. Eventually, this could lead to the development of reperfused Thiel embalmed human bodies, which have several applications.

A Mendelian randomization approach to assess the causal relationship of gamma-glutamyl transferase with blood pressure and insulin

Background: Elevated levels of g-glutamyl transferase (GGT) have been associated with subsequent risk of elevated blood pressure (BP), hypertension and diabetes. However, the causality of these relationships has not been addressed. Mendelian randomization refers to the random allocation of alleles at the time of gamete formation. Such allocation is expected to be independent of any behavioural and environmental factors (known or unknown), allowing the analysis of largely unconfounded risk associations that are not due to reverse causation. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis among 4361 participants to the population based CoLaus study. Associations of sex-specific GGT quartiles with systolic BP, diastolic BP and insulin levels were assessed using multivariable linear regression analyses. The rs2017869 GGT1 variant, which explained 1.6% of the variance in GGT levels, was used as an instrument to perform a Mendelian randomization analysis. Results: Median age of the study population was 53 years. After age and sex adjustment, GGT quartiles were strongly associated with systolic and diastolic BP (all p for linear trend <0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, these relationships were significantly attenuated, but remained significant for systolic (b(95%CI)¼1.30 (0.32;2.03), p¼0.007) and diastolic BP (b (95%CI)¼0.57 (0.02;1.13), p¼0.04). Using Mendelian randomization, we observed no positive association of GGT with either systolic BP (b (95%CI)¼-5.68 (-11.51-0.16), p¼0.06) or diastolic BP (b (95%CI)¼ -2.24 (-5.98;1.49) p¼0.24). The association of GGT with insulin was also attenuated after multivariable adjustment. Nevertheless, a strong linear trend persisted in the fully adjusted model (b (95%CI)¼0.07 (0.04;0.09), p<0.0001). Using Mendelian randomization, we observed a similar positive association of GGT with insulin (b (95%CI)¼0.19 (0.01-0.37), p¼0.04). Conclusion: In this study, we found evidence for a direct causal relationship between GGT and insulin, suggesting that oxidative stress may be causally implicated in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Effective t-J model Hamiltonian parameters of monolayered cuprate superconductors from ab initio electronic structure calculations

The magnetic coupling constant of selected cuprate superconductor parent compounds has been determined by means of embedded cluster model and periodic calculations carried out at the same level of theory. The agreement between both approaches validates the cluster model. This model is subsequently employed in state-of-the-art configuration interaction calculations aimed to obtain accurate values of the magnetic coupling constant and hopping integral for a series of superconducting cuprates. Likewise, a systematic study of the performance of different ab initio explicitly correlated wave function methods and of several density functional approaches is presented. The accurate determination of the parameters of the t-J Hamiltonian has several consequences. First, it suggests that the appearance of high-Tc superconductivity in existing monolayered cuprates occurs with J/t in the 0.20¿0.35 regime. Second, J/t=0.20 is predicted to be the threshold for the existence of superconductivity and, third, a simple and accurate relationship between the critical temperatures at optimum doping and these parameters is found. However, this quantitative electronic structure versus Tc relationship is only found when both J and t are obtained at the most accurate level of theory.

The role of unions in an endogenous growth model with human capital

In this paper we study the relationship between unions and growth in a two-sector overlapping generations model with altruism and humancapital. This relationship depends on the interaction between the technology in the sector that produces human capital, the degreeof unionization of the economy and the operativeness of the bequest motive.

Age differences in biological monitoring of chemical exposure: a tentative description using a toxicokinetic model

AIM: Specific factors responsible for interindividual variability should be identified and their contribution quantified to improve the usefulness of biological monitoring. Among others, age is an easily identifiable determinant, which could play an important impact on biological variability. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A compartmental toxicokinetic model developed in previous studies for a series of metallic and organic compounds was applied to the description of age differences. Young male physiological and metabolic parameters, based on Reference Man information, were taken from preceding studies and were modified to take into account age based on available information about age differences. RESULTS: Numerical simulation using the kinetic model with the modified parameters indicates in some cases important differences due to age. The expected changes are mostly of the order of 10-20%, but differences up to 50% were observed in some cases. CONCLUSION: These differences appear to depend on the chemical and on the biological entity considered. Further work should be done to improve our estimates of these parameters, by considering for example uncertainty and variability in these parameters. [Authors]

The personality profile of borderline personality disordered patients using the five-factor model of personality

The purpose of this ex post facto study is to analyze the personality profile of outpatients who met criteria for borderline personality disorder according to the Five-Factor Model of personality. All patients (N = 52) completed the International Personality Disorder Examination (IPDE) Screening Questionnaire, the Big Five Questionnaire (BFQ), the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), and the Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS). The results show a high comorbidity with other DSM-IV-TR Axis II disorders, in particular with those from Cluster C. The BFQ average score indicates that the outpatients who met borderline criteria score lower than controls on all five dimensions, and especially on emotional stability. Correlations were computed between the BFQ and the IPDE scales in our sample. These results suggest that specific personality profile are linked to different comorbidity patterns. More than a half of our sample has clinically significant scores on Beck's scales. Surprisingly, depression and hopelessness are neither correlated with the borderline scale, nor have an effect in the relationship between personality and personality disorders.

On the relationship between connections and the asymptotic properties of predictive distributions

In a recent paper, Komaki studied the second-order asymptotic properties of predictive distributions, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a loss function. He showed that estimative distributions with asymptotically efficient estimators can be improved by predictive distributions that do not belong to the model. The model is assumed to be a multidimensional curved exponential family. In this paper we generalize the result assuming as a loss function any f divergence. A relationship arises between alpha connections and optimal predictive distributions. In particular, using an alpha divergence to measure the goodness of a predictive distribution, the optimal shift of the estimate distribution is related to alpha-covariant derivatives. The expression that we obtain for the asymptotic risk is also useful to study the higher-order asymptotic properties of an estimator, in the mentioned class of loss functions.

The neuroanatomical model of post-stroke depression: towards a change of focus?

One third of all stroke survivors develop post-stroke depression (PSD). Depressive symptoms adversely affect rehabilitation and significantly increase risk of death in the post-stroke period. One of the theoretical views on the determinants of PSD focuses on psychosocial factors like disability and social support. Others emphasize biologic mechanisms such as disruption of biogenic amine neurotransmission and release of proinflammatory cytokines. The "lesion location" perspective attempts to establish a relationship between localization of stroke and occurrence of depression, but empirical results remain contradictory. These divergences are partly related to the fact that neuroimaging methods, unlike neuropathology, are not able to assess precisely the full extent of stroke-affected areas and do not specify the different types of vascular lesions. We provide here an overview of the known phenomenological profile and current pathogenic hypotheses of PSD and present neuropathological data challenging the classic "single-stroke"-based neuroanatomical model of PSD. We suggest that vascular burden due to the chronic accumulation of small macrovascular and microvascular lesions may be a crucial determinant of the development and evolution of PSD.