Four essays of environmental risk-mitigation

Expected damages of environmental risks depend both on their intensities and probabilities. There is very little control over probabilities of climate related disasters such as hurricanes. Therefore, researchers of social science are interested identifying preparation and mitigation measures that build human resilience to disasters and avoid serious loss. Conversely, environmental degradation, which is a process through which the natural environment is compromised in some way, has been accelerated by human activities. As scientists are finding effective ways on how to prevent and reduce pollution, the society often fails to adopt these effective preventive methods. Researchers of psychological and contextual characterization offer specific lessons for policy interventions that encourage human efforts to reduce pollution. This dissertation addresses four discussions of effective policy regimes encouraging pro-environmental preference in consumption and production, and promoting risk mitigation behavior in the face of natural hazards. The first essay describes how the speed of adoption of environment friendly technologies is driven largely by consumers' preferences and their learning dynamics rather than producers' choice. The second essay is an empirical analysis of a choice experiment to understand preferences for energy efficient investments. The empirical analysis suggests that subjects tend to increase energy efficient investment when they pay a pollution tax proportional to the total expenditure on energy consumption. However, investments in energy efficiency seem to be crowded out when subjects have the option to buy health insurance to cover pollution related health risks. In context of hurricane risk mitigation and in evidence of recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida, the third essay shows that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow home inspection to seek mitigation information. The fourth essay evaluates the impact of utility disruption on household well being based on the responses of a household-level phone survey in the wake of hurricane Wilma. Findings highlight the need for significant investment to enhance the capacity of rapid utility restoration after a hurricane event in the context of South Florida.

Perceived Risk of Predation Affects Reproductive Life - History Traits in Gambusia holbrooki, but Not in Heterandria formosa

Key to predicting impacts of predation is understanding the mechanisms through which predators impact prey populations. While consumptive effects are well-known, non-consumptive predator effects (risk effects) are increasingly being recognized as important. Studies of risk effects, however, have focused largely on how trade-offs between food and safety affect fitness. Less documented, and appreciated, is the potential for predator presence to directly suppress prey reproduction and affect life-history characteristics. For the first time, we tested the effects of visual predator cues on reproduction of two prey species with different reproductive modes, lecithotrophy (i.e. embryonic development primarily fueled by yolk) and matrotrophy (i.e. energy for embryonic development directly supplied by the mother to the embryo through a vascular connection). Predation risk suppressed reproduction in the lecithotrophic prey (Gambusia holbrokii) but not the matrotroph (Heterandria formosa). Predator stress caused G. holbrooki to reduce clutch size by 43%, and to produce larger and heavier offspring compared to control females. H. formosa, however, did not show any such difference. In G. holbrooki we also found a significantly high percentage (14%) of stillbirths in predator-exposed treatments compared to controls (2%). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first direct empirical evidence of predation stress affecting stillbirths in prey. Our results suggest that matrotrophy, superfetation (clutch overlap), or both decrease the sensitivity of mothers to environmental fluctuation in resource (food) and stress (predation risk) levels compared to lecithotrophy. These mechanisms should be considered both when modeling consequences of perceived risk of predation on prey-predator population dynamics and when seeking to understand the evolution of reproductive modes.

Substance Use and Sexual Risk Behaviors among Adolescent Detainees

During the past two decades there has been much research conducted on the relationship between the risky sexual behavior practices and substance use among U.S. adolescents. This body of research has documented the fact that substance use and not using condoms are the most important indicators associated with the risk of becoming infected with sexually transmitted diseases (STD) both among adolescents and adults (Florida Department of Public Health, 2004; Malow, Devieux, Jennings, & Lucenko, 2001; McCoy & Inciardi, 1995). Data from those reports and studies indicate that adolescents and adults who use a condom regularly and appropriately are 20 times less likely to contract an STD than those who do not (Pinkerton & Abramson, 1997). However, less empirical evidence exists about the factors that influence adolescent use of condoms, particularly among adolescents who are detained due to their criminal lifestyle. Researchers have found both a high prevalence of STD in addition to early onset of sexual activity without protection among some adolescent groups such as the detainees (D'angelo & DiClemente, 1996) and that adolescents tend to underestimate their risks of acquiring the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (Magura, Shapiro, & Kang, 1994). Many adolescents will experiment with alcohol and other drugs. This behavior may compromise their judgment and increase their chances of engaging in risky sex (Rotheram-Borus, 2000). Hence the need for research that investigates the influence that substance use, risky sexual attitudes, knowledge about the transmission of HIV, and both peer and parental approval of condom use have on the use of condoms among both female and male adolescent detainees. Lastly, it is important for additional research to be conducted because adolescent detainees have been identified as being at high risk of becoming infected with an STD (Malow, Rosemberg, & Devieux, 2006). The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship among adolescent substance use, gender, sexual risk attitude, attitude about personal use of condoms, knowledge associated with the transmission of HIV, peer and family approval of condom use, history of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and the level of condom use in a sample of adolescents housed in a correctional institution. Further details of the explanatory variables, the control variables and their expected relationships can be found in the review of the Literature in Chapter 2. Also, more information about the separate analysis of the research questions is detailed in the Methods section in Chapter 3. Based on the literature detailed in Chapter 2 (e.g., Malow et al., 2006), the current study’s researcher anticipated that adolescents’ higher levels of illicit drug use would be related to higher levels of sexual risk behaviors, as measured by lower levels of condom use, than their counterparts who used no drugs. Similarly, it was hypothesized that positive attitudes toward condom use and higher levels of HIV risk knowledge would be associated with a lower level of risky sexual behaviors along with a higher level of condom use skill. It was further hypothesized that the level of approval perceived from parents and peers regarding condom use was going to be related to adolescents’ safe sex behavior (i.e., condom use). Therefore, it was expected that participants’ perception of a high level of approval to use condoms from peers and parents would be a statistically significant variable in helping explain the condom use within this sample of adolescent detainees.

Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Government Bond Returns

Peer reviewed

Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Government Bond Returns

Peer reviewed

The paradoxes of risk management in the banking sector

This paper uses empirical evidence to examine the operational dynamics and paradoxical nature of risk management systems in the banking sector. It demonstrates how a core paradox of market versus regulatory demands and an accompanying variety of performance, learning and belonging paradoxes underlie evident tensions in the interaction between front and back office staff in banks. Organisational responses to such paradoxes are found to range from passive to proactive, reflecting differing organisational, departmental and individual risk culture(s), and performance management systems. Nonetheless, a common feature of regulatory initiatives designed to secure a more structurally independent risk management function is that they have failed to rectify a critical imbalance of power - with the back office control functions continuing to be dominated by front office trading and investment functions. Ultimately, viewing the 'core' of risk management systems as a series of connected paradoxes rather than a set of assured, robust practices, requires a fundamental switch in emphasis away from a normative, standards-based approach to risk management to one which gives greater recognition to its behavioural dimensions.

The Abundance and Behavioral Ecology of Cape Cod Gray Seals Under Predation Risk From White Sharks

The ultimate goal of wildlife recovery is abundance growth of a species, though it must also involve the reestablishment of the species’ ecological role within ecosystems frequently modified by humans. Reestablishment and subsequent recovery may depend on the species’ degree of adaptive behavior as well as the duration of their functional absence and the extent of ecosystem alteration. In cases of long extirpations or extensive alteration, successful reestablishment may entail adjusting foraging behavior, targeting new prey species, and encountering unfamiliar predatory or competitive regimes. Recovering species must also increasingly tolerate heightened anthropogenic presence, particularly within densely inhabited coastal zones. In recent decades, gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) recovered from exploitation, depletion, and partial extirpation in the Northwest Atlantic. On Cape Cod, MA, USA, gray seals have reestablished growing breeding colonies and seasonally interact with migratory white sharks (Carcarodon carcharias). Though well-studied in portions of their range due to concerns over piscivorous impacts on valuable groundfish, there are broad knowledge gaps regarding their ecological role to US marine ecosystems. Furthermore, there are few studies that explicitly analyze gray seal behavior under direct risk of documented shark predation.

In this dissertation, I apply a behavioral and movement ecology approach to telemetry data to understand gray seal abundance and activity patterns along the coast of Cape Cod. This coastal focus complements extensive research documenting and describing offshore movement and foraging behavior and allows me to address questions about movement decisions and risk allocation. Using beach counts of seals visible in satellite imagery, I estimate the total regional abundance of gray seals using correction factors from haul out behavior and demonstrate a sizeable prey base of gray seals locally. Analyzing intra-annual space use patterns, I document small, concentrated home ranges utilizing nearshore habitats that rapidly expand with shifting activity budgets to target disperse offshore habitats following seasonal declines in white sharks. During the season of dense shark presence, seals conducted abbreviated nocturnal foraging trips structured temporally around divergent use of crepuscular periods. The timing of coastal behavior with different levels of twilight indicate risk allocation patterns with diel cycles of empirical white shark activity. The emergence of risk allocation to explain unique behavioral and spatial patterns observed in these gray seals points to the importance of the restored predator-prey dynamic in gray seal behavior along Cape Cod.

Essays in Empirical Operations Management: Bayesian Learning of Service Quality and Structural Estimation of Complementary Product Pricing and Inventory Management

This dissertation contributes to the rapidly growing empirical research area in the field of operations management. It contains two essays, tackling two different sets of operations management questions which are motivated by and built on field data sets from two very different industries --- air cargo logistics and retailing.

The first essay, based on the data set obtained from a world leading third-party logistics company, develops a novel and general Bayesian hierarchical learning framework for estimating customers' spillover learning, that is, customers' learning about the quality of a service (or product) from their previous experiences with similar yet not identical services. We then apply our model to the data set to study how customers' experiences from shipping on a particular route affect their future decisions about shipping not only on that route, but also on other routes serviced by the same logistics company. We find that customers indeed borrow experiences from similar but different services to update their quality beliefs that determine future purchase decisions. Also, service quality beliefs have a significant impact on their future purchasing decisions. Moreover, customers are risk averse; they are averse to not only experience variability but also belief uncertainty (i.e., customer's uncertainty about their beliefs). Finally, belief uncertainty affects customers' utilities more compared to experience variability.

The second essay is based on a data set obtained from a large Chinese supermarket chain, which contains sales as well as both wholesale and retail prices of un-packaged perishable vegetables. Recognizing the special characteristics of this particularly product category, we develop a structural estimation model in a discrete-continuous choice model framework. Building on this framework, we then study an optimization model for joint pricing and inventory management strategies of multiple products, which aims at improving the company's profit from direct sales and at the same time reducing food waste and thus improving social welfare.

Collectively, the studies in this dissertation provide useful modeling ideas, decision tools, insights, and guidance for firms to utilize vast sales and operations data to devise more effective business strategies.

Is there really "nothing you can do"? Pathways to enhanced flood-risk preparedness

Whilst policy makers have tended to adopt an ‘information-deficit model’ to bolster levels of flood-risk preparedness primarily though communication strategies promoting awareness, the assumed causal relation between awareness and preparedness is empirically weak. As such, there is a growing interest amongst scholars and policy makers alike to better understand why at-risk individuals are underprepared. In this vein, empirical studies, typically employing quantitative methods, have tended to focus on exploring the extent to which flood-risk preparedness levels vary depending not only on socio-demographic variables, but also (and increasingly so) the perceptual factors that influence flood risk preparedness. This study builds upon and extends this body of research by offering a more solution-focused approach that seeks to identify how pathways to flood-risk preparedness can be opened up. Specifically, through application of a qualitative methodology, we seek to explore how the factors that negatively influence flood-risk preparedness can be addressed to foster a shift towards greater levels of mitigation behaviour. In doing so, we focus our analysis on an urban community in Ireland that is identified as ‘at risk’ of flash flooding and is currently undergoing significant flood relief works. In this regard, the case study offers an interesting laboratory to explore how attitudes towards flood-risk preparedness at the individual level are being influenced within the context of a flood relief scheme that is only partially constructed. In order to redress the dearth of theoretically informed qualitative studies in this field, we draw on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to help guide our analysis and make sense of our results. Our findings demonstrate that flood-risk preparedness can be undermined by low levels of efficacy amongst individuals in terms of the preparedness measures available to them and their own personal capacity to implement them. We also elucidate that the ‘levee effect’ can occur before engineered flood defences are fully constructed as the flood relief works within our case study are beginning to affect people’s perception of flood risk in the case study area. We conclude by arguing that 1) individuals’ coping appraisals need to be enhanced through communication strategies and other interventions which highlight that future floods may not replicate past events; and 2) the concept of residual risk needs to be communicated at all stages of a flood relief scheme, not just upon completion.

Bond Fund Performance During Recessions and Expansions: Empirical Evidence from a Small Market

This paper provides the first investigation about bond mutual fund performance during recession and expansion periods separately. Based on multi-factor performance evaluation models, results show that bond funds significantly underperform the market during both phases of the business cycle. Nevertheless, unlike equity funds, bond funds exhibit considerably higher alphas during good economic states than during market downturns. These results, however, seem entirely driven by the global financial crisis subperiod. In contrast, during the recession associated to the Euro sovereign debt crisis, bond funds are able to accomplish neutral performance. This improved performance throughout the debt crisis seems to be related to more conservative investment strategies, which reflect an increase in managers’ risk aversion.

Macroeconomic Risk Factors and the Role of Mispriced Credit in the Returns from International Real Estate Securities

The benefits of diversification from international real estate securities are generally well established. However, the drivers of international real estate securities returns are insufficiently understood. We jointly examine the empirical implications of three major international asset pricing models that account for broad macroeconomic risk factors. In addition, we develop the hypothesis that an indicator of mispriced credit is significant in explaining the time series variation in international real estate securities returns. We employ the returns generated by a large sample of firms from 20 countries over the period 1999 to 2011 to test our hypothesis. We find support for the predictions of the major international asset pricing models. We also find evidence in favour of our hypothesised link between local credit conditions and the performance of international real estate securities.

Public Risk Interpretation and Community Resilience Planning: A Case Study in Aberdeen, Washington

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

An evaluation of trace metal distribution, enrichment factors and risk in sediments of a coastal lagoon (Ria de Aveiro, Portugal)

This paper describes a sediment survey undertaken to unravel patterns of distribution and dispersion of trace metals in an Iberian Peninsula northwestern coastal lagoon (Ria de Aveiro). Cadmium, lead, chromium, copper and zinc were analyzed in bottom sediments. Geochemical normalization is performed and two different regression models for each metal versus aluminum are tested and compared using the respective enrichment factors (EF), an estimation of the relative importance of anthropogenic contributions to the studied sediments. Mean sediment quality guideline quotients (mSQGQ) are used to evaluate sediment quality and associated potential risk to biota with effects range low as empirical sediment quality guideline (SQG) in the basis for mSQGQ calculation. Additionally, the geoaccumulation index is calculated to compare studied sediment levels to global baseline levels. The application of SQGs revealed insufficient characterization capability, especially when contrasted to EF calculated from the regression methods. These pointed a mildly enriched system with localized “hot spot” areas. Therefore, it can be considered that bottom sediments in the Ria de Aveiro system are in their majority unpolluted, zinc being the only metal of concern, presenting enrichment in all four main channels. The major rivers outlets (Caster, Antuã, and Vouga) constitute point sources, thus presenting potential risk for biota. Yet, the strong tidal influence creates a damping effect by efficiently redistributing sediment bound metals.

Financialisation, Capital Accumulation and Economic Development : A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of the Nigerian Economy

The primary focus of this study is to highlight those unobtrusive, yet fundamental, factors undermining economic development in Nigeria. To begin with, it posits that the decelerating pace of capital accumulation in Nigeria, which naturally occasions rising unemployment and poverty levels, and widening inequality gap, is the result of the ‘low possibility’ of capitalist enterprises in the country of earning an adequate rate of profit from their productive processes. In turn, the ‘low possibility’ is argued to be the result of the uneven development inherent in the modern capitalist structure, the high cost of capital and of production peculiar to Nigeria, and the ineffective demand for goods made in Nigeria: these elements are viewed as been precipitated by the contradictions of the contemporary political-economic arrangement that organises the Social Structures of Accumulation. For Nigeria to ‘develop’, it is contended that the unobtrusive elements inherent in the contradiction of the political-economic economic that undermine the capitalists’ ability to earn a commensurate rate of profit in the country needs to be fully addressed first. Furthermore, this study suggests that it is crucial the country embraces knowledge-based industrialisation if it is to achieve some form of ‘competitive advantage’ in the global market, which could enable its productive processes extract a commensurate level of profit from the market. To facilitate the knowledge-based industrialisation, the state should, not only create a conducive environment for industrial development but also play the lead role in transforming the peripheral and oil dependent economy to a knowledge-based economy by coordinating business organisations and investing in high-risk innovations.

Consumer perceived risk, risk reduction strategies and transaction intentions in online marketplaces

Even though online commerce has garnered vast academic interest during the recent years, theoretical grounds for consumer behavior online still remains ambiguous. Despite the globally rapid growth of online commerce, only a fraction of Internet browsers end up purchasing goods online. This is argued to be caused by the intangible and distant nature of the Internet, causing overwhelming perceived risks for consumers and negatively affecting transaction intentions. To combat perceived risks, consumers may actively or passively seek to relieve those risks to tolerable level. These risk reduction strategies refer to both institutional mechanisms as well as consumer risk reduction strategies. The objective of this thesis is to provide further understanding upon the relationships between consumer perceived risk, risk reduction strategies and transaction intentions in online marketplaces. To serve the objectives of the present thesis, a quantitative approach was chosen as the method for conducting empirical research. The data was collected with an online survey through discussion board, using a random sample approach. The proposed research model was examined with a set of hierarchical regression analyses. Results revealed several direct relationships as well as moderating interaction effects. The key finding of this thesis is that institutional risk reduction mechanisms significantly contribute to consumer perceived risks. These mechanisms have the potential to reduce perceived risks, and therefore may stimulate transaction intentions. Additionally, it was observed that risk reduction strategies moderate the relationship between intermediary provided risk relievers, consumer perceived risks and transaction intentions. Retailer related risk reduction strategies were also shown to enforce the effectiveness of payment methods; however feedback and monitoring mechanism was shown to have a diminishing effect of perceived risk only when consumers did not rely on product related risk reduction strategies. The present thesis also illustrates the importance of effective information search, as those consumers are more willing to transact as the perceived risks become less significant. For managerial purposes, the importance of well-functioning institutional mechanisms cannot be emphasized enough.