942 resultados para Economic forecasting.


Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

National Seniors Australia (2008) acknowledged the huge contributions that older people have made to Australian society in its policy statement, AdvantAGE Australia. National Seniors Australia commissioned this study to find out more about the extent of these contributions and the factors that influence these contributions. The key outcome of this study is a framework or ‘Chart of Accounts’ that allows users to a) track the participation of older Australians in paid and unpaid work; and b) estimate the value of economic and social contributions by older Australians as well as the value of losses for not utilising the knowledge and skills that older Australians have built up over a lifetime. Users can also make predictions of future contributions and participation in paid and unpaid work by using existing data as the baseline.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

It is widely held that strong relationships exist between housing, economic status, and well being. This is exemplified by widespread housing stock surpluses in many countries which threaten to destabilise numerous aspects related to individuals and community. However, the position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian position provides a distinct contrast whereby seemingly inexorable housing demand generally remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand ensures elements related to housing affordability continue to gain prominence. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability – particularly new housing development – relates to holding costs. These costs are in many ways “hidden” and cannot always be easily identified. Although it is only one contributor, the nature and extent of its impact requires elucidation. In its simplest form, it commences with a calculation of the interest or opportunity cost of land holding. However, there is significantly more complexity for major new developments - particularly greenfield property development. Preliminary analysis conducted by the author suggests that even small shifts in primary factors impacting holding costs can appreciably affect housing affordability – and notably, to a greater extent than commonly held. Even so, their importance and perceived high level impact can be gauged from the unprecedented level of attention policy makers have given them over recent years. This may be evidenced by the embedding of specific strategies to address burgeoning holding costs (and particularly those cost savings associated with streamlining regulatory assessment) within statutory instruments such as the Queensland Housing Affordability Strategy, and the South East Queensland Regional Plan. However, several key issues require investigation. Firstly, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely. In fact, it is not only variable, but in some instances completely ignored. Secondly, some ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Perhaps this may in part be explained by their nature: such costs are not always immediately apparent. Some forms of holding costs are not as visible as the more tangible cost items associated with greenfield development such as regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others. Holding costs are also more difficult to evaluate since for the most part they must be ultimately assessed over time in an ever-changing environment, based on their strong relationship with opportunity cost which is in turn dependant, inter alia, upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a more detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs, and in so doing determine the size of their impact specifically on the end user. This will involve the development of soundly based economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding costs. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We investigate whether the two 2 zero cost portfolios, SMB and HML, have the ability to predict economic growth for markets investigated in this paper. Our findings show that there are only a limited number of cases when the coefficients are positive and significance is achieved in an even more limited number of cases. Our results are in stark contrast to Liew and Vassalou (2000) who find coefficients to be generally positive and of a similar magnitude. We go a step further and also employ the methodology of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994) and once again fail to support the risk-based hypothesis of Liew and Vassalou (2000). In sum, we argue that search for a robust economic explanation for firm size and book-to-market equity effects needs sustained effort as these two zero cost portfolios do not represent economically relevant risk.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The sinking of the Titanic in April 1912 took the lives of 68 percent of the people aboard. Who survived? It was women and children who had a higher probability of being saved, not men. Likewise, people traveling in first class had a better chance of survival than those in second and third class. British passengers were more likely to perish than members of other nations. This extreme event represents a rare case of a well-documented life and death situation where social norms were enforced. This paper shows that economic analysis can account for human behavior in such situations.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

It has been suggested that although the most theorisation about globalisation has emerged from “western” contexts, the material implications of globalisation have been felt most strongly in non-western regions. With this in mind, we are undertaking a situated analysis of how two states, Singapore and Hong Kong, are interacting with the broader processes of globalisation through their educational policies. We apply Foucault's conceptual tool of governmentality to understand (i) the conduct of governing in the contemporary nation-state, and (ii) how the “right” rationalities are being inculcated by government to create “desiring subjects” who will play their part in ensuring national prosperity. We use the Asian Economic Crisis as a point of departure to show how global-local tensions are being managed by Singapore and Hong Kong. We conclude that both these global cities have adroitly managed the Asian economic crisis to steer their citizens away from pursuits of greater political freedom and towards concerns of material well being. They have done so through a selective interpretation of globalisation, by simultaneously resisting and embracing the contradictory strands of globalisation. Education has emerged as a critical space for this selective absorption of globalising trends.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We investigate the roles of finn and country level agency conflicts in determining corporate payout policics. Based on a large sample of 29,610 firms in 42 countries from 2001 to 2006, we show there is a form of "pecking order" in investors' ability to extract cash (whether as dividends only or share repurchases) from firms. Although investors are able to use their legal powers to extract cash from firms in high protection countries, their ability to do so can be substantially hindered when agency costs at the firm level are high. In poor protection countries, investors seem to take whatever cash they can get, even though the amount may be small, and with scant regard for investment opportunities and firm level agency conflicts. Finally, compared to repurchases, we find dividends are more likely to be the sole method of payout in high protection countries and in non insider-dominated firms.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In their studies, Eley and Meyer (2004) and Meyer and Cleary (1998) found that there are sources of variation in the affective and process dimensions of learning in mathematics and clinical diagnosis specific to each of these disciplines. Meyer and Shanahan (2002) argue that: General purpose models of student learning that are transportable across different discipline contexts cannot, by definition, be sensitive to sources of variation that may be subject-specific (2002. p. 204). In other words, to explain the differences in learning approaches and outcomes in a particular discipline, there are discipline-specific factors, which cannot be uncovered in general educational research. Meyer and Shanahan (2002) argue for a need to "seek additional sources of variation that are perhaps conceptually unique ... within the discourse of particular disciplines" (p. 204). In this paper, the development of an economics-specific construct (called economic thinking ability) is reported. The construct aims to measure discipline-sited ability of students that has important influence on learning in economics. Using this construct, economic thinking abilities of introductory and intermediate level economics students were measured prior to the commencement, and at the end, of their study over one semester. This enabled factors associated with students' pre-course economic thinking ability and their development in economic thinking ability to be investigated. The empirical findings will address the 'nature' versus 'nurture' debate in economics education (Frank, et aI., 1993; Frey et al., 1993; Haucap and Tobias 2003). The implications for future research in economics education will also be discussed.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In teaching introductory economics there has been a tendency to put a lot of emphasis on imparting abstract models and technical skills to students (Stilwell, 2005; Voss, Blais, Greens, & Ahwesh, 1986). This model building approach has the merit of preparing the grounding for students 10 pursue further studies in economics. However, in a business degree with only a small proportion of students majoring in economics, such an approach tend to alienate the majority of students transiting from high school in to university. Surveys in Europe and Australia found that students complained about the lack of relevance of economics courses to the real world and the over-reliance of abstract mathematical modelling (Kirman, 2001; Lewis and Norris, 1997; Siegfried & Round, 2000). BSB112 Economics 1 is one of the eight faculty core units in the Faculty of Business at QUT, with over 1000 students in each semester. In semester I 2008, a new approach to teaching this unit was designed aiming to achieve three inter-related objectives: (1) to provide business students with a first insight into economic thinking and language, (2) to integrate economic analysis with current Australian social, environmental and political issues, and (3) to cater for students with a wide range of academic needs. Strategies used to achieve these objectives included writing up a new text which departs from traditional economics textbooks in important ways, integrating students' cultures in teaching and learning activities, and devising a new assessment format to encourage development of research skills and applications rather than reproduction of factual knowledge. This paper will document the strategies used in this teaching innovation, present quantitative and qualitative evidence to evaluate this new approach and suggest ways of further improvement.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In Bonny Glen Pty Ltd v Country Energy [2009] NSWCA 26 (24 February 2009) the New South Wales Court of Appeal held that the pure economic loss suffered by the appellant was recoverable. However, rather than arguments as to whether the appellant was vulnerable and a member of an ascertainable class, whether the respondent had knowledge of the risk to the appellant and was in a position of control and considerations as to indeterminate liability as in Perre v Apand Pty Ltd (1999) 198 CLR 180, the arguments raised related to the foreseeability of the loss and causation.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

uring periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Previous work has established the effectiveness of systematically monitoring first year higher education students and intervening with those identified as at-risk of attrition. This nuts-and-bolts paper establishes an economic case for a systematic monitoring and intervention program, identifying the visible costs and benefits of such a program at a major Australian university. The benefit of such a program is measured in savings to the institution which would otherwise be lost revenue, in the form of retained equivalent full-time student load (EFTSL). The session will present an economic model based on a number of assumptions. These assumptions are explored along with the applicability of the model to other institutions.

Relevância:

20.00% 20.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Hollywood has dominated the global film business since the First World War. Economic formulas used by governments to assess levels of industry dominance typically measure market share to establish the degree of industry concentration. The business literature reveals that a marketing orientation strongly correlates with superior market performance and that market leaders that possess a set of six superior marketing capabilities are able to continually outperform rival firms. This paper argues that the historical evidence shows that the Hollywood Majors have consistently outperformed rival firms and rival film industries in each of those six marketing capabilities and that unless rivals develop a similarly integrated and cohesive strategic marketing management approach to the movie business and match the Major studios’ superior capabilities, then Hollywood’s dominance will continue. This paper also proposes that in cyberspace, whilst the Internet does provide a channel that democratises film distribution, the flat landscape of the world wide web means that in order to stand out from the clutter of millions of cyber-voices seeking attention, independent film companies need to possess superior strategic marketing management capabilities and develop effective e-marketing strategies to find a niche, attract a loyal online audience and prosper. However, mirroring a recent CIA report forecasting a multi-polar world economy, this paper also argues that potentially serious longer-term rivals are emerging and will increasingly take a larger slice of an expanding global box office as India, China and other major developing economies and their respective cultural channels grow and achieve economic parity with or surpass the advanced western economies. Thus, in terms of global market share over time, Hollywood’s slice of the pie will comparatively diminish in an emerging multi-polar movie business.