Assessment of the damage caused by flood rains and landslides in association with hurricane Michelle, october 2001: implications for economic, social and environmental development

Preface This study was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant physical damage and economic losses that the country sustained as a result of flood rains associated with the development of Hurricane Michelle. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) submitted a request for assistance in undertaking a social, environmental and economic impact assessment to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 14 November 2001. ECLAC responded with haste and modified its work plan to accommodate the request. A request for training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology to be delivered to personnel in Jamaica was deferred until the first quarter of 2002, as it was impossible to mount such an initiative at such short notice. This appraisal considers the consequences of the three instances of heavy rainfall that brought on the severe flooding and loss of property and livelihoods. The study was prepared by three members of the ECLAC Natural Disaster Damage Assessment Team over a period of one week in order to comply with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister on 3 December 2001. The team has endeavoured to complete a workload that would take two weeks with a team of 15 members working assiduously with data already prepared in preliminary form by the national emergency stakeholders. There is need for training in disaster assessment as evidenced by the data collected by the Jamaican officials engaged in the exercise. Their efforts in the future will be more focused and productive after they have received training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology. This study undertakes a sectoral analysis leading to an overall assessment of the damage. It appraises the macroeconomic and social effects and proposes some guidelines for action including mitigating actions subsequent to the devastation caused by the weather system. The team is grateful for the efforts of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), the associated government ministries and agencies, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) for assistance rendered to the team. Indeed, it is the recommendation of the team that STATIN is poised to play a pivotal role in any disaster damage assessment and should be taken on board in that regard. The direct and indirect damages have been assessed in accordance with the methodology developed by ECLAC (1). The results presented are based on the mission's estimates. The study incorporates the information made available to the team and evidence collected in interviews and visits to affected locations. It is estimated that the magnitude of the losses exceeds the country's capacity to address reparations and mitigation without serious dislocation of its development trajectory. The government may wish to approach the international community for assistance in this regard. This appraisal is therefore designed to provide the government and the international community with guidelines for setting national and regional priorities in rehabilitation and reconstruction or resettlement programmes. A purely economic conception of the problem would be limited. A more integrated approach would have a human face and consider the alleviation of human suffering in the affected areas while attending to the economic and fiscal fallout of the disaster. Questions of improved physical planning, watershed management, early warning, emergency response and structural preparedness for evacuation and sheltering the vulnerable population are seen as important considerations for the post disaster phase. Special attention and priority should be placed on including sustainability and increased governance criteria in making social and productive investments, and on allocating resources to the reinforcing and retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure, basic lifelines and services as part of the reconstruction and rehabilitation strategy. The Jamaican society and government face the opportunity of undertaking action with the benefit of revised paradigms, embarking on institutional, legal and structural reforms to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability. The history of flood devastation in the very areas of Portland and St. Mary shows a recurrence of flooding. Accounts of flooding from the earliest recorded accounts pertaining to 1837 are available. Recurrences in 1937, 1940, 1943 and 2001 indicate an ever-present probability of recurrence of similar events. The Government may wish to consider the probable consequences of a part of its population living in flood plains and address its position vis-à­¶is land use and the probability of yet another recurrence of flood rains. (1) ECLAC/IDNDR, Manual for estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters, May,1999.

Manual on economic development projects

In this study, projects are not regarded as isolated economic units; they are considered within the context of the entire economic system of which they will form a part. Thus the Manual presents both macroeconomic and microeconomic concepts. From this it must not be inferred that the Manual attempts to offer a combined microeconomic and macroeconomic theory. It seeks to contribute more to an appreciation of the problem than to its solution, thus widening the outlook of those who prepare projects so that they may make the greatest possible compilation of useful data for their economic appraisal.

The cost of hunger: Social and economic impact of child undernutrition in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) jointly with the World Program of Food (WFP) and recognized experts of the region developed a methodology that, using secondary information, estimate the opportunity cost derived from undernutrition. This methodology has been successfully applied in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic, where the cost of undernutrition was estimated at 6.7 billion dollars in 2004. The present study covers four countries in South America: Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru. The results indicate that the cost of the malnutrition in these countries reached 4.3 billion dollars in 2005, which is equivalent to 3.3 per cent of the GDP of these countries. The results strongly point out that child undernutrition is not only a problem of health or an unacceptable situation ethically, but it is a national problem, given the enormous social costs and the loss of opportunities that it imposes on the national economy.

The cost of hunger: Social and economic impact of child undernutrition in Central America and the Dominican Republic

This document presents the results derived from the analyses of the cost of undernutrition in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama and the Dominican Republic. The study shows that not only are the effects reported valid for the countries of Central America and the Dominican Republic, but the resultant economic impact is also significant, representing between 1.7% and 11.4% of GDP. In this regard, productivity losses as a consequence of the higher death rate and the lower level of education account for 90% of the costs. Thus, in addition to the ethical imperative, eradicating undernutrition would yield benefits as well. Therefore, any programme that is effective in reducing the prevalence of this problem will have an impact on people's quality of life, and will also represent major savings for society. The greater the problem, the greater the challenge, but the greater the benefits as well, especially in terms of countries' production capacity.

A bi-objective genetic approach for the selection of sugarcane varieties to comply with environmental and economic requirements

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multistage Transmission Expansion Planning Considering Fixed Series Compensation Allocation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An unequivocal normalization-based paradigm to solve dynamic economic and emission active-reactive OPF (optimal power flow)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Double-objective economic statistical design of the VP T-2 control chart: Wald's identity approach

Research has shown that applying the T-2 control chart by using a variable parameters (VP) scheme yields rapid detection of out-of-control states. In this paper, the problem of economic statistical design of the VP T-2 control chart is considered as a double-objective minimization problem with the statistical objective being the adjusted average time to signal and the economic objective being expected cost per hour. We then find the Pareto-optimal designs in which the two objectives are met simultaneously by using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. Through an illustrative example, we show that relatively large benefits can be achieved by applying the VP scheme when compared with usual schemes, and in addition, the multi-objective approach provides the user with designs that are flexible and adaptive.

Higher yield and economic benefits are achieved in the macadamia crop by irrigation and intercropping with coffee

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

SEASONAL, HABITAT AND SEX-SPECIFIC PATTERNS OF FOOD UTILIZATION BY RED-WINGED BLACKBIRDS (Agelaius phoeniceous) IN EASTERN ONTARIO AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE

Crop depredation by red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) causes serious economic losses to agricultural crops each year in both Canada and the United States. The concentration of vulnerable, monocultural crops, particularly corn, during periods when large flocks of blackbirds congregate in roosting areas prior to migration has invariably led to heavy feeding pressure (Stone et al., 1972; Wiens and Dyer, 1975; Tyler et al., 1978). Efforts to reduce damage levels by mechanical and chemical dispersal agents have been largely unsuccessful, at least in terms of a long-term solution to the problem. Recently, the lethal control of blackbird populations using surfactants has been proposed. However, the potential repercussions of the removal of substantial numbers of birds from northern breeding areas are virtually unknown (Robertson et al., 1978). Much of the research dealing with the feeding ecology of red-winged blackbirds has been limited to fall and winter periods when large aggregations of birds are actively involved in crop depredation (Goddad, 1969; Williams, 1976; Dolbeer et al., 1978) or pose a potential health hazard (Monroe and Cronholm, 1976). However, what is not known is the degree to which the removal of deleterious weed seed and insect pests cited in several studies (Bird and Smith, 1964; Mott et al., 1972; Robertson et al., 1978) might be of potential value to agriculture. The issue of whether the benefits derived from redwing foraging compensate for the negative aspects associated with crop depredation and health hazards remains largely unresolved. The present study attempted to evaluate the pest status of this species using diet information derived from food habits analysis conducted during the residency of red- winged blackbirds in a northern breeding area. By determining how the feeding ecology of red-winged blackbirds varies on a seasonal basis, among different breeding habitats and between sexes, we hoped to determine more realistically which segments of the population might be responsible for the greatest benefits or detriments and, thereby, more accurately evaluate the economic impact of the species as a whole. To achieve this aim, the study provides an accurate description of the common insects and weed pests utilized by redwings. By determining the relative proportions of those items known to be detrimental, we hoped to illustrate, at least qualitatively, the degree to which redwing foraging is comprised of both beneficial and harmful components.

Antecedents of the Intent to Recommend: a problem with fast food restaurants

The fast and strong social and economic transformations in the economies of many countries has raised the competition for consumers. One of the elements required to adapt to such scenario is knowing customers and their perceptions about products or services, mainly regarding word of mouth recommendations. This study adapts, to the fast food business, a model originally designed to analyze the antecedents of the intent to recommend by clients of formal restaurants. Three constructs were considered: service quality, satisfaction, and social well-being, the latter comprised of positive and negative affections. Six hypotheses were considered, three of which relating to social well-being (that it influences satisfaction, service quality, and the intent to recommend), two relating to service quality (that in influences the intent to recommend and satisfaction), and one relating to the influence of satisfaction on the intent to recommend. None was rejected, indicating adherence and adjustment of the simplication and adaptation of the consolidated model. Through a successful empirical application, the main contribution made by this research is the simplification of a model through its application in a similar context, but with a different scope.

Essays on European economic and monetary integration

This thesis focuses on two aspects of European economic integration: exchange rate stabilization between non-euro Countries and the Euro Area, and real and nominal convergence of Central and Eastern European Countries. Each Chapter covers these aspects from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. Chapter 1 investigates whether the introduction of the euro was accompanied by a shift in the de facto exchange rate policy of European countries outside the euro area, using methods recently developed by the literature to detect "Fear of Floating" episodes. I find that European Inflation Targeters have tried to stabilize the euro exchange rate, after its introduction; fixed exchange rate arrangements, instead, apart from official policy changes, remained stable. Finally, the euro seems to have gained a relevant role as a reference currency even outside Europe. Chapter 2 proposes an approach to estimate Central Bank preferences starting from the Central Bank's optimization problem within a small open economy, using Sweden as a case study, to find whether stabilization of the exchange rate played a role in the Monetary Policy rule of the Riksbank. The results show that it did not influence interest rate setting; exchange rate stabilization probably occurred as a result of increased economic integration and business cycle convergence. Chapter 3 studies the interactions between wages in the public sector, the traded private sector and the closed sector in ten EU Transition Countries. The theoretical literature on wage spillovers suggests that the traded sector should be the leader in wage setting, with non-traded sectors wages adjusting. We show that large heterogeneity across countries is present, and sheltered and public sector wages are often leaders in wage determination. This result is relevant from a policy perspective since wage spillovers, leading to costs growing faster than productivity, may affect the international cost competitiveness of the traded sector.

The ecological and socio-economic role of Prosopis juliflora in Eritrea

In Eritrea findet eine rasche Verbreitung von Prosopis (juliflora) statt, die sich negativ auf die Naturresourcen als auch die sozio-ökonomische Lage der ländlichen Bevölkerung auswirkt. Die Landbevölkerung Eritrea's ist davon überzeugt, dass die Pflanze vor allem die Ernährungssicherung beeinträchtigt und will deshalb, dass sie ausgerottet wird. Die vorliegende Dissertation beschreibt die Auswirkung von Posopis auf lokale Öko- und Wirtschaftssysteme und zieht Vergleiche mit der diesbezüglichen Situation in anderen Ländern. Im Weiteren stellt sie einen Prosopis Management-Plan vor, dessen Ziel es ist, die zunehmende Verbreitung zu verhindern. Auch liefert sie eine Gegenüberstellung der Ansichten von wissenschaftlichen Experten einerseits und Bauern und Nomaden andrerseits. Sie zeigt auf, dass die weit verbreitete Annahme der Experten das Problem Prosopis durch ökonomische Nutzung ("eradication by utilisation") in Schach halten zu können, fraglich ist.

Essays on the Empirical Analysis of Economic and Political Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, non-democratic events, like civil wars and coup d'etat, destroy economic development. This study investigates both domestic and spatial effects on the likelihood of civil wars and coup d'etat. To civil wars, an increase of income growth is one of common research conclusions to stop wars. This study adds a concern on ethnic fractionalization. IV-2SLS is applied to overcome causality problem. The findings document that income growth is significant to reduce number and degree of violence in high ethnic fractionalized countries, otherwise they are trade-off. Income growth reduces amount of wars, but increases its violent level, in the countries with few large ethnic groups. Promoting growth should consider ethnic composition. This study also investigates the clustering and contagion of civil wars using spatial panel data models. Onset, incidence and end of civil conflicts spread across the network of neighboring countries while peace, the end of conflicts, diffuse only with the nearest neighbor. There is an evidence of indirect links from neighboring income growth, without too much inequality, to reduce the likelihood of civil wars. To coup d'etat, this study revisits its diffusion for both all types of coups and only successful ones. The results find an existence of both domestic and spatial determinants in different periods. Domestic income growth plays major role to reduce the likelihood of coup before cold war ends, while spatial effects do negative afterward. Results on probability to succeed coup are similar. After cold war ends, international organisations seriously promote democracy with pressure against coup d'etat, and it seems to be effective. In sum, this study indicates the role of domestic ethnic fractionalization and the spread of neighboring effects to the likelihood of non-democratic events in a country. Policy implementation should concern these factors.

Changes in Psychological Characteristics of Working Adults in Different Stages of Economic Transition in Lithuania

Global economic changes have psychological consequences and Mr. Lepeska set out to assess these changes in working adults in Lithuania between 1993 and 1997. He surveyed two groups of working adults, with a total of 200 people, randomly selected and representing different organisations and professions. In both groups around 30% of participants were managers, with the remainder working in non-managerial positions. The participants were surveyed twice, once in 1993 and the second time in 1997,using various psychodiagnostic tools to measure their psychological characteristics. The results showed that strategies for coping with stress have changed, with problem solving strategies being used more often, and avoidance behaviour or seeking social support less. Men tended to have rejected these strategy more radically than women. Attitudes towards work had become more positive, with managers' attitudes having changed more significantly than those of employees from lower levels of organisations. Younger people were more positive towards work-related changes, while situational anxiety tended to increase with age, although overall it remained low. Mr. Lepeska found that while there were some indications of an increasing individualist in relation to peers, the traditional collective orientation of Lithuanian adults had if anything increased. People have become more accepting of an unequal distribution of power, making it difficult to increase the participation of subordinates in decision making. He also noted a tendency for Lithuanians to see their organisations as traditional families, expecting them to take care of them physically and economically in return for loyalty. The strong feminine orientation with its stress on interpersonal relations and overall quality of life has also strengthened, but the ability of Lithuanians to take initiative and control their environment was relatively low. Mr. Lepeska concludes that organisations should seek to recruit people who are able to adjust more easily to changes and consider measuring dominance, individualism, and attitudes to work-related change and situational anxiety in the process of professional selection. There should also be more emphasis on team building and on training managers to maintain closer relationships with their subordinates so as to increase the latter's participation in decision making. Good interpersonal relations can be a strong work motivator, as may be special attention to the security needs of older employees.