Tourism in the Mediterranean: Scenarios up to 2030. MEDPRO Report No. 1/July 2011- (updated May 2013)

From 1990 to 2010, the 11 countries of the south-eastern Mediterranean region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, hereafter SMCs) recorded the highest growth rates in inbound world tourism. In the same period, domestic tourism in these countries also increased rapidly, which is astonishing given the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties in the region. Even the 2008 financial crisis had no severe impact on this growth, confirming the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the SMCs in this sector. The Arab Spring brought this trend to an abrupt halt in early 2011, but it may resume after 2014 with the gradual democratisation process, despite the economic slowdown of the European Union – its main market. This paper looks at whether this trend will continue up to 2030, and provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in SMCs for 2030: i) reference scenario, ii) common (cooperation) sustainable development scenario, iii) polarised (regional) development scenario and iv) failed development – decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourist arrivals will increase. However, three main factors will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in the SMCs: security, competitiveness linked to the efficient use of ICT, and adjustment to climate change.

Population Scenarios and Policy Implications for Southern Mediterranean Countries, 2010-2050. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 5, March 2013

Four population scenarios were derived that describe indicators of demographic behaviour for people living in different future political-economic contexts. This policy paper explores future trends in i) population growth at regional and national levels, ii) working age populations, in view of demographic dividend potential, and iii) elderly populations, in view of the financial burden they place on economies. Results show that different scenarios do not have large effects on population growth, at least up to 2030. This is due to the in-built ‘population momentum’ effect in the relatively young age-structures of most southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs). In the short term, up to 2030, and depending on which economic-political scenario unfolds, SEMCs are expected to grow from 280 million people to a figure of between 362 and 349 million people. Thus, in a period of about 20 years SEMCs are expected to grow by between 69 and 83 million people. In the same period, EU27 populations will grow by 21 million; only from about 500 to 521 million people. Between 2030 and 2050, additional population growth is foreseen in SEMCs, between 48 and 62 million people, while EU27 populations are expected to grow by 4 million only. SEMCs vary widely regarding demographic transition profiles so that demographic dividend potentials also vary. Old-age dependency ratios – the share of elderly people in relation to the working age population – are still low compared to EU27 ratios, but will increase after 2035. Should SEMCs’ economies remain politically, economically and environmentally precarious in the coming decades, their relatively low dependency ratios may impose an even higher social and financial burden on economies than the EU countries’ high dependency ratios impose on their economies.

Scenarios Assessment and Transitions towards a Sustainable Euro-Mediterranean in 2030. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 9, July 2013

In the aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings in the southern and eastern Mediterranean, the region has reached a turning point in its history, presenting as many opportunities as challenges. The European Union itself is facing challenging conditions following the financial and economic crises that have hit its periphery. This MEDPRO Policy Paper examines and assesses various possible scenarios that could play out in EU-Mediterranean relations over the next two decades and offers recommendations towards long-term sustainable socio-economic development in the region.

A New Euro-Mediterranean Energy Roadmap for a Sustainable Energy Transition in the Region. MEDPRO Policy Paper No. 3, February 2013

This paper addresses the urgent need for a sustainable energy transition in the southern and eastern Mediterranean region. It analyses the unsustainable burden of universal energy subsidies and calls for new development paths unlocking the huge potential for low-cost energy efficiency and demand-side management as well as for renewable energy. It argues that a new structure of regional and interconnected energy markets is needed. It then proposes some original approaches regarding the financing of this sustainable energy transition and finally calls for an ambitious, Euro-Mediterranean Energy Roadmap, which should contribute not only to the economic and environmental development of the region, but also to its social and political stability.

Determinants of Financial Development across the Mediterranean. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 29/February 2013

Casual observation shows that that the financial systems in the southern and eastern Mediterranean are unable (or unwilling) to divert the financial resources that are available to them as funding opportunities to private enterprises. Using a sample of both northern and southern Mediterranean countries for the years 1985 to 2009, this study empirically assesses the reasons underlying such conditions. The results show that strong legal institutions, good democratic governance and adequate implementation of financial reforms can have a substantial positive impact on financial development only when they are present collectively. Moreover, inflation appears to undermine banking development, but less so when the capital account is open. Government debt growth appears to weaken credit growth, which confirms that public debt ‘crowds out’ private debt. Lastly, capital inflows appear to primarily have an income effect, increasing income and thereby national savings, and thus increasing the availability of credit.

Prospects for Energy Supply and Demand in the Southern Mediterranean: Scenarios for 2010-30. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 22/December 2012

The aim of this technical report is to quantify alternative energy demand and supply scenarios for ten southern and eastern Mediterranean countries up to 2030. The report presents the model-based results of four alternative scenarios that are broadly in line with the MEDPRO scenario specifications on regional integration and cooperation with the EU. The report analyses the main implications of the scenarios in the following areas: • final energy demand by sector (industry, households, services, agriculture and transport); • the evolution of the power generation mix, the development of renewable energy sources and electricity exports to the EU; • primary energy production and the balance of trade for hydrocarbons; • energy-related CO2 emissions; and • power generation costs.

Pollen and spores in bottom sediments of the Mediterranean Sea

The paper presents results of palynological analysis of deposits from core VITYAZ4779 (length 6.5 m) that was collected from depth 3090 m in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. These palynological data reveal four distinct strata of sediments, each of which was accumulated under different physiographic conditions.

Chronostratigraphy of eastern Mediterranen Sea sediment cores

An Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) 14C dated multiparameter event stratigraphy is developed for the Aegean Sea on the basis of highly resolved (centimeter to subcentimeter) multiproxy data collected from four late glacial to Holocene sediment cores. We quantify the degree of proportionality and synchroneity of sediment accumulation in these cores and use this framework to optimize the confidence levels in regional marine, radiocarbon-based chronostratigraphies. The applicability of the framework to published, lower-resolution records from the Aegean Sea is assessed. Next this is extended into the wider eastern Mediterranean, using new and previously published high-resolution data from the northern Levantine and Adriatic cores. We determine that the magnitude of uncertainties in the intercore comparison of AMS 14C datings based on planktonic foraminifera in the eastern Mediterranean is of the order of ±240 years (2 SE). These uncertainties are attributed to synsedimentary and postsedimentary processes that affect the materials dated. This study also offers a background age control that allows for vital refinements to radiocarbon-based chronostratigraphy in the eastern Mediterranean, with the potential for similar frameworks to be developed for any other well-studied region.

(Table 2) Oxygen isotopic of composition of Pliocene to late Pleistocene planktonic foraminifera of the Mediterranean Sea

Stable isotopic and micropaleontological studies were made of selected sapropels (organic-rich sediments) deposited in the Mediterranean Sea during the last 5.0 m.y. to determine the processes responsible for their formation. Distinct isotopic and faunal changes occur across sapropels of late Pleistocene, early Pleistocene and latest Pliocene age, while smaller isotopic changes and more stable faunal assemblages are associated with the early and mid-late Pliocene sapropels. The large d18O depletions and euryhaline fauna associated with latest Pliocene-Pleistocene sapropels supports a density stratification model with a low salinity surface layer. In contrast, early Pliocene and mid-late Pliocene sapropels appear to have been formed as the result of sluggish circulation and low oxygen contents in bottom waters of the eastern Mediterranean due to the stable, warm climatic conditions of that time period.

(Table 1) Heavy mineral content in sediments of the southern Mediterranean Ridge, Nile Cone and Egyptian Shelf

Petrographic analysis of Quaternary terrigenous sand layers in eastern Mediterranean cores reveals distinct mineralogical differences between the Egyptian Shelf-Nile Cone region and the southern part of the Mediterranean Ridge. A compositionally and texturally immature suite in Ridge cores, mixed with a Nile-derived assemblage, identifies a fresh non-recycled mineral component derived from proximal igneous and metamorphic surface or near-surface exposures, probably in the south-central Ridge area rather than from distal African sources. The presence of such basement terrains would be consistent with a compressive thrust-belt origin for this part of the Mediterranean Ridge.

Changes in morphology and physiology of an East Mediterranean sponge in different habitats

The sponge Tetilla sp. (Tetractinomorpha: Tetillidae) is a common species in the eastern Mediterranean. This sponge inhabits four different habitat types differing in wave impact and irradiance levels. Two of these habitats (a shallow cave and deep water) are characterized by relatively calm water, whereas the other two (shallow exposed site and tide pools) are in turbulent water with high energy flow. The present study examined the influence of physical (depth, illumination and water motion) and biotic factors on morphology, skeletal plasticity and reproductive traits among the four spatially separated populations. Sponges from tidal pools had significantly larger body volume than sponges from deep water and from shallow caves (ANOVA: tidal-deep P< 0.0001; tidal-shallow caves P< 0.05). Sponges from exposed habitats were significantly larger than deep-water sponges (ANOVA: P=0.01). In addition, individuals from tide pools and from the exposed habitat had a significantly higher proportion of structural silica than sponges from the calmer deep water and from the cave sites. Oxea spicules in sponges from the calm habitats were significantly shorter than in those from the tidal pools and the exposed habitats. The percentage of spicules out of a sponge's dry weight in individuals transplanted from deep (calm) to shallow (turbulent) water significantly increased by 21.9&PLUSMN; 12.9%. The new spicule percentage did not differ significantly from that of sponges originally from shallow water. Oocyte diameter differed significantly between habitats. The maximal size of mature eggs was found in deep-water sponges in June (97&PLUSMN; 5 μ m). In the shallow habitats, a smaller maximal oocyte diameter was found in the cave, in May (56.5&PLUSMN; 3 μ m). Furthermore, oocyte density in shallow-water sponges was highest in May and decreased in June (with 88.2&PLUSMN; 9 and 19.3&PLUSMN; 9 oocytes mm(-2), respectively). At the same time (June), oocyte density of deep-water sponges had just reached its maximum (155&PLUSMN; 33.7 oocytes mm(-2)). The difference in oocyte size and density between deep- and shallow-water individuals indicates an earlier gamete release in the shallow sponge population. The results suggest that plasticity in skeletal design of this sponge indicates a trade off between spicule production and investment in reproduction.

(Table 2) Radiocarbon dating on cold-water corals collected in the Mediterranean Sea

This study presents newly obtained coral ages of the cold-water corals Lophelia pertusa and Madrepora oculata collected in the Alboran Sea and the Strait of Sicily (Urania Bank). These data were combined with all available Mediterranean Lophelia and Madrepora ages compiled from literature to conduct a basin-wide assessment of the spatial and temporal occurrence of these prominent framework-forming scleractinian species in the Mediterranean realm and to unravel the palaeo-environmental conditions that controlled their proliferation or decline. For the first time special focus was placed on a closer examination of potential differences occurring between the eastern and western Mediterranean sub-basins. Our results clearly demonstrate that cold-water corals occurred sparsely in the entire Mediterranean during the last glacial before becoming abundant during the Bølling-Allerød warm interval, pointing to a basin-wide, almost concurrent onset in (re-)colonisation after ~13.5 ka. This time coincides with a peak in meltwater discharge originating from the northern Mediterranean borderlands which caused a major reorganisation of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. During the Younger Dryas and Holocene, some striking differences in coral proliferation were identified between the sub-basins such as periods of highly prolific coral growth in the eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Younger Dryas and in the western basin during the Early Holocene, whereas a temporary pronounced coral decline during the Younger Dryas was exclusively affecting coral sites in the Alboran Sea. Comparison with environmental and oceanographic data revealed that the proliferation of the Mediterranean corals is linked with enhanced productivity conditions. Moreover, corals thrived in intermediate depths and showed a close relationship with intermediate water mass circulation in the Mediterranean sub-basins. For instance, reduced Levantine Intermediate Water formation hampered coral growth in the eastern Mediterranean Sea during sapropel S1 event as reduced Winter Intermediate Water formation did in the westernmost part of the Mediterranean (Alboran Sea) during the Mid-Holocene. Overall, this study clearly demonstrates the importance to consider region-specific environmental changes as well as species-specific environmental preferences in interpreting coral chronologies. Moreover, it highlights that the occurrence or decline of cold-water corals is not controlled by one key parameter but rather by a complex interplay of various environmental variables.