511 resultados para EXTRAPOLATION


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Question. How many deaths were attributable to smoking in 2000 worldwide? Study design. Statistical extrapolation of epidemiological and clinical data. Main results. In the year 2000, about 12% of adults died prematurely from smoking (estimated 4.83 million uncertainty range 3.94-5.93 million). Leading causes of death attributable to smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths) and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths; 71% of lung cancers were smoking related). Smoking related deaths in men were about 3 times more common than women in industrial countries, and about 7 times more common in developing countries. Authors' conclusions. Smoking was a major cause of death worldwide in 2000. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The management of water resources in Ireland prior to the Water Framework Directive (WFD) has focussed on surface water and groundwater as separate entities. A critical element to the successful implementation of the
WFD is to improve our understanding of the interaction between the two and flow mechanisms by which groundwaters discharge to surface waters. An improved understanding of the contribution of groundwater to surface water is required for the classification of groundwater body status and the determination of groundwater quality thresholds. The results of the study will also have a wider application to many areas of the WFD.
A subcommittee of the WFD Groundwater Working Group (GWWG) has been formed to develop a methodology to estimate the groundwater contribution to Irish Rivers. The group has selected a number of analytical techniques to quantify components of stream flow in an Irish context (Master Recession Curve, Unit Hydrograph, Flood Studies Report methodologies and
hydrogeological analytical modelling). The components of stream flow that can be identified include deep groundwater, intermediate and overland. These analyses have been tested on seven pilot catchments that have a variety of hydrogeological settings and have been used to inform and constrain a mathematical model. The mathematical model used was the NAM (NedbØr-AfstrØmnings-Model) rainfall-runoff model which is a module of DHIs MIKE 11 modelling suite. The results from these pilot catchments have been used to develop a decision model based on catchment descriptors from GIS datasets for the selection of NAM parameters. The datasets used include the mapping of aquifers, vulnerability and subsoils, soils, the Digital Terrain Model, CORINE and lakes. The national coverage of the GIS datasets has allowed the extrapolation of the mathematical model to regional catchments across Ireland.

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Aims. In a recent measurement, Meléndez & Barbuy (2009, A&A, 497, 611) report accurate log gf values for 142 important astrophysical lines with wavelengths in the range 4000 Å to 8000 Å. Their results include both solar and laboratory measurements. In this paper, we describe a theoretical study of these lines. Methods. The CIV3 structure codes, combined with our "fine-tuning" extrapolation process, are used to undertake a large-scale CI calculation involving the lowest 262 fine-structure levels belonging to the 3d4s, 3d, 3d4s, 3d4p, and 3d4s4p configurations. Results. We find that many of the 142 transitions are very weak intercombination lines. Other transitions are weak because the dominant configurations in the two levels differ by two orbitals. Conclusions. The comparison between our log gf values and the experimental values generally shows good agreement for most of these transitions, with our theoretical values agreeing slightly more closely with the solar than with the laboratory measurements. A detailed analysis of the small number of transitions for which the agreement between theory and experiment is not as good shows that such disagreements largely arise from severe cancellation due to CI mixing.

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The Bronze Age in Britain was a time of major social and cultural changes, reflected in the division of the landscape into field systems and the establishment of new belief systems and ritual practices. Several hypotheses have been advanced to explain these changes, and assessment of many of them is dependent on the availability of detailed palaeoenvironmental data from the sites concerned. This paper explores the development of a later prehistoric landscape in Orkney, where a Bronze Age field system and an apparently ritually-deposited late Bronze Age axe head are located in an area of deep blanket peat from which high-resolution palaeoenvironmental sequences have been recovered. There is no indication that the field system was constructed to facilitate agricultural intensification, and it more likely reflects a cultural response to social fragmentation associated with a more dispersed settlement pattern. There is evidence for wetter conditions during the later Bronze Age, and the apparent votive deposit may reflect the efforts of the local population to maintain community integrity during a time of perceptible environmental change leading to loss of farmland. The study emphasises the advantages of close integration of palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data for interpretation of prehistoric human activity. The palaeoenvironmental data also provide further evidence for the complexity of prehistoric woodland communities in Orkney, hinting at greater diversity than is often assumed. Additionally, differing dates for woodland decline in the two sequences highlight the dangers of over-extrapolation from trends observed in a single pollen profile, even at a very local scale.

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Actinobacteria perform essential functions within soils, and are dependent on available water to do so. We determined the water-activity (aw) limits for cell division of Streptomyces albidoflavus, Streptomyces rectiviolaceus, Micromonospora grisea and Micromonospora (JCM 3050) over a range of temperatures, using culture media supplemented with a biologically permissive solute (glycerol). Each species grew optimally at 0.998 aw (control; no added glycerol) and growth rates were near-optimal in the range 0.971–0.974 (1 M glycerol) at permissive temperatures. Each was capable of cell division at 0.916–0.924 aw (2 M glycerol), but only S. albidoflavus grew at 0.895 or 0.897 aw (3 M glycerol, at 30 and 37°C respectively). For S. albidoflavus, however, no growth occurred on media at ≤ 0.870 (4 M glycerol) during the 40-day assessment period, regardless of temperature, and a theoretical limit of 0.877 aw was derived by extrapolation of growth curves. This level of solute tolerance is high for non-halophilic bacteria, but is consistent with reported limits for the growth and metabolic activities of soil microbes. The limit, within the range 0.895–0.870 aw, is very much inferior to those for obligately halophilic bacteria and extremely halophilic or xerophilic fungi, and is inconsistent with earlier reports of cell division at 0.500 aw. These findings are discussed in relation to planetary protection policy for space exploration and the microbiology of arid soils.

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Archaea and Bacteria constitute a majority of life systems on Earth but have long been considered inferior to Eukarya in terms of solute tolerance. Whereas the most halophilic prokaryotes are known for an ability to multiply at saturated NaCl (water activity (aw) 0.755) some xerophilic fungi can germinate, usually at high-sugar concentrations, at values as low as 0.650–0.605 aw. Here, we present evidence that halophilic prokayotes can grow down to water activities of <0.755 for Halanaerobium lacusrosei (0.748), Halobacterium strain 004.1 (0.728), Halobacterium sp. NRC-1 and Halococcus morrhuae (0.717), Haloquadratum walsbyi (0.709), Halococcus salifodinae (0.693), Halobacterium noricense (0.687), Natrinema pallidum (0.681) and haloarchaeal strains GN-2 and GN-5 (0.635 aw). Furthermore, extrapolation of growth curves (prone to giving conservative estimates) indicated theoretical minima down to 0.611 aw for extreme, obligately halophilic Archaea and Bacteria. These were compared with minima for the most solute-tolerant Bacteria in high-sugar (or other non-saline) media (Mycobacterium spp., Tetragenococcus halophilus, Saccharibacter floricola, Staphylococcus aureus and so on) and eukaryotic microbes in saline (Wallemia spp., Basipetospora halophila, Dunaliella spp. and so on) and high-sugar substrates (for example, Xeromyces bisporus, Zygosaccharomyces rouxii, Aspergillus and Eurotium spp.). We also manipulated the balance of chaotropic and kosmotropic stressors for the extreme, xerophilic fungi Aspergillus penicilloides and X. bisporus and, via this approach, their established water-activity limits for mycelial growth (~0.65) were reduced to 0.640. Furthermore, extrapolations indicated theoretical limits of 0.632 and 0.636 aw for A. penicilloides and X. bisporus, respectively. Collectively, these findings suggest that there is a common water-activity limit that is determined by physicochemical constraints for the three domains of life.

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The nature of photon interaction and reaction pH can have significant impacts on semiconductor photocatalysis. This paper describes the effect of pH on the photonic efficiency of photocatalytic reactions in the aqueous phase using TiO2 catalysts. The reactor was irradiated using periodic illumination with UV-LEDs through control of the illumination duty cycle (γ) through a series of light and dark times (Ton/Toff). Photonic efficiencies for methyl orange degradation were found to be comparable at high γ irrespective of pH. At lower γ, pH effects on photonic efficiency were very distinct across acidic, neutral and alkaline pH indicating an effect of complementary parameters. The results suggest photonic efficiency is greatest as illumination time, Ton approaches interfacial electron-transfer characteristic time which is within the range of this study or charge-carrier lifetimes upon extrapolation and also when electrostatic attraction between surface-trapped holes, {TiIVOH}ads+ and substrate molecules is strongest.

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Despite its wide implications for many ecological issues, the global pattern of spatial turnover in the occurrence of species has been little studied, unlike the global pattern of species richness. Here, using a database on the breeding distributions of birds, we present the first global maps of variation in spatial turnover for an entire taxonomic class, a pattern that has to date remained largely a matter of conjecture, based on theoretical expectations and extrapolation of inconsistent patterns from different biogeographic realms. We use these maps to test four predictions from niche theory as to the form that this variation should take, namely that turnover should increase with species richness, towards lower latitudes, and with the steepness of environmental gradients and that variation in turnover is determined principally by rare (restricted) species. Contrary to prediction, we show that turnover is high both in areas of extremely low and high species richness, does not increase strongly towards the tropics, and is related both to average environmental conditions and spatial variation in those conditions. These results are closely associated with a further important and novel finding, namely that global patterns of spatial turnover are driven principally by widespread species rather than the restricted ones. This complements recent demonstrations that spatial patterns of species richness are also driven principally by widespread species, and thus provides an important contribution towards a unified model of how terrestrial biodiversity varies both within and between the Earth's major land masses.

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The spatial distribution of a species can be characterized at many different spatial scales, from fine-scale measures of local population density to coarse-scale geographical-range structure. Previous studies have shown a degree of correlation in species' distribution patterns across narrow ranges of scales, making it possible to predict fine-scale properties from coarser-scale distributions. To test the limits of such extrapolation, we have compiled distributional information on 16 species of British plants, at scales ranging across six orders of magnitude in linear resolution (1 in to 100 km). As expected, the correlation between patterns at different spatial scales tends to degrade as the scales become more widely separated. There is, however, an abrupt breakdown in cross-scale correlations across intermediate (ca. 0.5 km) scales, suggesting that local and regional patterns are influenced by essentially non-overlapping sets of processes. The scaling discontinuity may also reflect characteristic scales of human land use in Britain, suggesting a novel method for analysing the 'footprint' of humanity on a landscape.

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We describe formulation and evaluation of novel dissolving polymeric microneedle (MN) arrays for the facilitated delivery of low molecular weight, high dose drugs. Ibuprofen sodium was used as the model here and was successfully formulated at approximately 50% w/w in the dry state using the copolymer poly(methylvinylether/maleic acid). These MNs were robust and effectively penetrated skin in vitro, dissolving rapidly to deliver the incorporated drug. The delivery of 1.5mg ibuprofen sodium, the theoretical mass of ibuprofen sodium contained within the dry MN alone, was vastly exceeded, indicating extensive delivery of the drug loaded into the baseplates. Indeed in in vitro transdermal delivery studies, approximately 33mg (90%) of the drug initially loaded into the arrays was delivered over 24h. Iontophoresis produced no meaningful increase in delivery. Biocompatibility studies and in vivo rat skin tolerance experiments raised no concerns. The blood plasma ibuprofen sodium concentrations achieved in rats (263μgml(-1) at the 24h time point) were approximately 20 times greater than the human therapeutic plasma level. By simplistic extrapolation of average weights from rats to humans, a MN patch design of no greater than 10cm(2) could cautiously be estimated to deliver therapeutically-relevant concentrations of ibuprofen sodium in humans. This work, therefore, represents a significant progression in exploitation of MN for successful transdermal delivery of a much wider range of drugs.

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This paper describes the methodology, results and limitations of the 2013 International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Atlas (6th edition) estimates of the worldwide numbers of prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in children (<15 years). The majority of relevant information in the published literature is in the form of incidence rates derived from registers of newly diagnosed cases. Studies were graded on quality criteria and, if no information was available in the published literature, extrapolation was used to assign a country the rate from an adjacent country with similar characteristics. Prevalence rates were then derived from these incidence rates and applied to United Nations 2012 Revision population estimates for 2013 for each country to obtain estimates of the number of prevalent cases. Data availability was highest for the countries in Europe (76%) and lowest for the countries in sub-Saharan Africa (8%). The prevalence estimates indicate that there are almost 500,000 children aged under 15 years with type 1 diabetes worldwide, the largest numbers being in Europe (129,000) and North America (108,700). Countries with the highest estimated numbers of new cases annually were the United States (13,000), India (10,900) and Brazil (5000). Compared with the prevalence estimates made in previous editions of the IDF Diabetes Atlas, the numbers have increased in most of the IDF Regions, often reflecting the incidence rate increases that have been well-documented in many countries. Monogenic diabetes is increasingly being recognised among those with clinical features of type 1 or type 2 diabetes as genetic studies become available, but population-based data on incidence and prevalence show wide variation due to lack of standardisation in the studies. Similarly, studies on type 2 diabetes in childhood suggest increased incidence and prevalence in many countries, especially in Indigenous peoples and ethnic minorities, but detailed population-based studies remain limited.

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The contribution of lichens to the biomodification of limestone surfaces is an area of conflict within bioweathering studies, with some researchers suggesting a protective effect induced by lichen coverage and others a deteriorative effect induced by the same organisms.Data are reported demonstrating the potential role of endolithic lichen, in particular of Bagliettoa baldensis, in the active protection of Carboniferous limestone surfaces from rainfall-induced solutional weathering. During a 12-month microcatchment exposure period in the west of Northern Ireland, average dissolutional losses of calciumare greater from a lichen-free limestone surface compared with a predominantly endolithic lichen-covered surface by just under 1.25 times. During colderwintermonths, the lichen free surface experiences calcium loss almost 1.5 times greater than the lichen-covered surface. Using extrapolation to upscale from the micro-catchment sample scale, for the year of sample exposure, the rate of calcium loss is 1.001 g m−2 a−1 from lichen-covered limestone surfaces and 1.228 gm−2 a−1 from lichen-free bare limestone surfaces. This research has implications for our understanding of karst environments, the contribution of lichens to karren development and the conservation of lichen-colonised dimension stone within a cultural setting.

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The time-dependent close-coupling method is used to calculate electron-impact excitation cross sections for the Li(2s)--{\textgreater}Li(nl) and Li(2p)--{\textgreater}Li(nl) transitions at incident energies just above the ionization threshold. The implementation of the time-dependent close-coupling method on a nonuniform lattice allows the study of continuum-coupling effects in excitations to high principal quantum number, i.e., n{\textless}=10. Good agreement is found with R-matrix with pseudostates calculations, which also include continuum-coupling effects, for excitations to low principal quantum number, i.e., n{\textless}=4. Poor agreement is found with standard distorted-wave calculations for excitations to all principal quantum numbers, with differences still at the 50% level for n=10. We are able to give guidance as to the accuracy expected in the n3 extrapolation of nonperturbative close-coupling calculations of low n cross sections and rate coefficients.

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Over 11 million tons of nanomaterials (NMs) have been produced in 2012 and predictions point the increase in production. Despite predictions and extended usage via consumer products and industry, the understanding of the potential impact of these materials on the environment is virtually absent. The main aim of this thesis is to understand how a selected group of nanomaterials (metal based particles) may impact soil invertebrates, with special focus on the mechanisms of response. Since a case-by-case Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) of all the emerging contaminants (particularly NMs) is impossible, among others due to time and cost reasons, to gain understanding on the mechanism of action and response is very important to reach a common paradigm. Understanding the modes of action provides predictive characters in cross particle extrapolation. Besides, it also provides insight for the production of new and sustainable materials. Overall, the effects of the selected NMs (Copper and Silver, Titanium and Zirconium oxides) and the respective salt forms, were investigated at the gene expression (using high-throughput tools, microarray and qPCR technology), biochemical (using enzymatic assays for analysis of oxidative stress markers) and organism (survival and reproduction as in OECD test guidelines) levels, this using standard soil species (Enchytraeus albidus, Enchytraeus crypticus, Eisenia fetida). Gene expression analysis provided valuable information on the mechanisms affected by each of the NMs. The gene expression profile highlighted a (nano)material signature and the effect of the duration of exposure. The functional analyses integrated with the biochemical and organism data, revealed a good understanding power. The biochemical parameters (oxidative stress related) were distinct across the materials and also influenced by duration of exposure and concentration. The standardized organismal responses differed the least between the various materials. The overall outcome is that, in this context of NMs effect assessment, gene expression and enzymatic assays introduced a very important knowledge gap, which could not had been achieved by the standard organismal effects alone. A reoccurring issue with some metal based NMs is the possible dissolution and subsequent release of ions that then causes toxicity e.g. Cu-NPs or Ag-NPs release Cu2+ or Ag+. The oxidation state of the particles was investigated, although this was not the focus of the thesis. The study of fate, e.g. dissolution of NPs, is also only in its beginning and the appropriate techniques are currently being developed. The results showed a specific nanoparticle effect. The UV exposure with titanium dioxide nanoparticles increased its effect.

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Tese de doutoramento, Engenharia Electrónica e Telecomunicações (Processamento de Sinal), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2014