A framework for freeway incident modeling and traffic re-routing

This paper proposes an analytical Incident Traffic Management framework for freeway incident modeling and traffic re-routing. The proposed framework incorporates an econometric incident duration model and a traffic re-routing optimization module. The incident duration model is used to estimate the expected duration of the incident and thus determine the planning horizon for the re-routing module. The re-routing module is a CTM-based Single Destination System Optimal Dynamic Traffic Assignment model that generates optimal real-time strategies of re-routing freeway traffic to its adjacent arterial network during incidents. The proposed framework has been applied to a case study network including a freeway and its adjacent arterial network in South East Queensland, Australia. The results from different scenarios of freeway demand and incident blockage extent have been analyzed and advantages of the proposed framework are demonstrated.

Groucho homologue Grg5 interacts with the transcription factor Runx2-Cbfa1 and modulates its activity during postnatal growth in mice

Runx2-Cbfal, a Runt transcription factor, plays important roles during skeletal development. It is required for differentiation and function of osteoblasts. In its absence, chondrocyte hypertrophy is severely impaired and there is no vascularization of cartilage templates during skeletal development. These tissue-specific functions of Runx2 are likely to be dependent on its interaction with other proteins. We have therefore searched for proteins that may modulate the activity of Runx2. The yeast two-hybrid system was used to identify a groucho homologue, Grg5, as a Runx2-interacting protein. Grg5 enhances Runx2 activity in a cell culture-based assay and by analyses of postnatal growth in mice we demonstrate that Grg5 and Runx2 interact genetically. We also show that Runx2 haploinsufficiency in the absence of Grg5 results in a more severe delay in ossification of cranial sutures and fontanels than occurs with Runx2 haploinsufficiency on a wild-type background. Finally, we find shortening of the proliferative and hypertrophic zones, and expansion of the resting zone in the growth plates of Runx2(+/-)Grg5(-/-) mice that are associated with reduced Ihh expression and Indian hedgehog (Ihh) signaling. We therefore conclude that Grg5 enhances Runx2 activity in vivo.

Modeling and analysis of energy quantization effects on single electron inverter performance

In this paper, for the first time, the effects of energy quantization on single electron transistor (SET) inverter performance are analyzed through analytical modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that energy quantization mainly changes the Coulomb blockade region and drain current of SET devices and thus affects the noise margin, power dissipation, and the propagation delay of SET inverter. A new analytical model for the noise margin of SET inverter is proposed which includes the energy quantization effects. Using the noise margin as a metric, the robustness of SET inverter is studied against the effects of energy quantization. A compact expression is developed for a novel parameter quantization threshold which is introduced for the first time in this paper. Quantization threshold explicitly defines the maximum energy quantization that an SET inverter logic circuit can withstand before its noise margin falls below a specified tolerance level. It is found that SET inverter designed with CT:CG=1/3 (where CT and CG are tunnel junction and gate capacitances, respectively) offers maximum robustness against energy quantization.

Cotton root systems and recovery of applied P and K fertilisers

With potential to accumulate substantial amounts of above-ground biomass, at maturity an irrigated cotton crop can have taken up more than 20 kg/ha phosphorus and often more than 200 kg/ha of potassium. Despite the size of plant accumulation of P and K, recovery of applied P and K fertilisers by the crop in our field experiment program has poor. Processing large amounts of mature cotton plant material to provide a representative sample for chemical analysis has not been without its challenges, but the questions regarding mechanism of where, how and when the plant is acquiring immobile nutrients remain. Dry matter measured early in the growing season (squaring, first white flower) have demonstrated a 50% increase in crop biomass to applied P (in particular), but it represents only 20% of the total P accumulation by the plant. By first open boll (and onwards), no response in dry matter or P concentration could be detected to P application. A glasshouse study indicated P recovery was greater (to FOB) where it was completely mixed through a profile as opposed to a banded application method suggesting cotton prefers a more diffuse distribution. The relative effects of root morphology, mycorrhizal fungi infection, seasonal growth patterns and how irrigation is applied are areas for future investigation on how, when and where cotton acquires immobile nutrients.

Measuring free ellagic acid: influence of extraction conditions on recovery by studying solubility and UV-Visible spectra

Recent investigations into plant tissues have indicated that the free form of the natural polyphenolic antioxidant, ellagic acid (EA), is much more plentiful than first envisaged; consequently a re-assessment of solvent systems for the extraction of this water-insoluble form is needed. As EA solubility and its UV-Vis spectrum, commonly used for detection and quantification, are both governed by pH, an understanding of this dependence is vital if accurate EA measurements are to be achieved. After evaluating the pH effects on the solubility and UV-Vis spectra of commercial EA, an extraction protocol was devised that promoted similar pH conditions for both standard solutions and plant tissue extracts. The extraction so devised followed by HPLC with photodiode-array detection (DAD) provided a simple, sensitive and validated methodology that determined free EA in a variety of plant extracts. The use of 100 % methanol or a triethanolamine-based mixture as the standard dissolving solvents were the best choices, while these higher pH-generating solvents were more efficient in extracting EA from the plants tested with the final choice allied to the plants’ natural acidity. Two of the native Australian plants anise myrtle (Syzygium anisatum) and Kakadu plum (Terminalia ferdinandiana) exhibited high concentrations of free EA. Furthermore, the dual approach to measuring EA UV-Vis spectra made possible an assessment of the effect of acidified eluent on EA spectra when the DAD was employed.

Modeling and analysis of a tunable piezoelectric structure for transverse shear wave generation

An analytical investigation of the transverse shear wave mode tuning with a resonator mass (packing mass) on a Lead Zirconium Titanate (PZT) crystal bonded together with a host plate and its equivalent electric circuit parameters are presented. The energy transfer into the structure for this type of wave modes are much higher in this new design. The novelty of the approach here is the tuning of a single wave mode in the thickness direction using a resonator mass. First, a one-dimensional constitutive model assuming the strain induced only in the thickness direction is considered. As the input voltage is applied to the PZT crystal in the thickness direction, the transverse normal stress distribution induced into the plate is assumed to have parabolic distribution, which is presumed as a function of the geometries of the PZT crystal, packing mass, substrate and the wave penetration depth of the generated wave. For the PZT crystal, the harmonic wave guide solution is assumed for the mechanical displacement and electric fields, while for the packing mass, the former is solved using the boundary conditions. The electromechanical characteristics in terms of the stress transfer, mechanical impedance, electrical displacement, velocity and electric field are analyzed. The analytical solutions for the aforementioned entities are presented on the basis of varying the thickness of the PZT crystal and the packing mass. The results show that for a 25% increase in the thickness of the PZT crystal, there is ~38% decrease in the first resonant frequency, while for the same change in the thickness of the packing mass, the decrease in the resonant frequency is observed as ~35%. Most importantly the tuning of the generated wave can be accomplished with the packing mass at lower frequencies easily. To the end, an equivalent electric circuit, for tuning the transverse shear wave mode is analyzed.

Modeling and Analysis of Noise Margin in SET Logic

In this paper the static noise margin for SET (single electron transistor) logic is defined and compact models for the noise margin are developed by making use of the MIB (Mahapatra-Ionescu-Banerjee) model. The variation of the noise margin with temperature and background charge is also studied. A chain of SET inverters is simulated to validate the definition of various logic levels (like VIH, VOH, etc.) and noise margin. Finally the noise immunity of SET logic is compared with current CMOS logic.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.