Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

(Table 1) Stable isotope data of chemoherm carbonates at Hydrate Ridge on the Cascadia continental margin

Two active chemoherm build-ups growing freely up into the oceanic water column, the Pinnacle and the South East-Knoll Chemoherms, have been discovered at Hydrate Ridge on the Cascadia continental margin. These microbially-mediated carbonate formations rise above the seafloor by several tens of meters and display a pinnacle-shaped morphology with steep flanks. The recovered rocks are pure carbonates dominated by aragonite. Based on fabric and mineralogic composition different varieties of authigenic aragonite can be distinguished. Detailed visual and petrographic investigations unambiguously reveal the involvement of microbes during the formation of the carbonates. The fabric of the cryptocrystalline and fibrous aragonite can be described as thrombolitic. Fossilized microbial filaments in the microcrystalline aragonite indicate the intimate relationship between microbes and carbonates. The strongly 13C-depleted carbon isotope values of the samples (as low as -48.1 per mill PDB) are characteristic of methane as the major carbon source for the carbonate formation. The methane-rich fluids from which the carbonates are precipitated originate most probably from a gas reservoir below the bottom-simulating reflector (BSR) and rise through fault systems. The d18O values of the aragonitic chemoherm carbonates are substantially higher (as high as 5.0 per mill PDB) than the expected equilibrium value for an aragonite forming from ambient seawater (3.5 per mill PDB). As a first approximation this indicates formation from glacial ocean water but other factors are considered as well. A conceptual model is presented for the precipitation of these chemoherm carbonates based on in situ observations and the detailed petrographic investigation of the carbonates. This model explains the function of the consortium of archaea and sulfate-reducing bacteria that grows on the carbonates performing anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) and enabling the precipitation of the chemoherms above the seafloor surrounded by oxic seawater. Beggiatoa mats growing on the surface of the chemoherms oxidize the sulfide provided by sulfate-dependent anaerobic oxidation of methane within an oxic environment. The contact between Beggiatoa and the underlying microbial consortium represents the interface between the overlying oxic water column and an anoxic micro-environment where carbonate formation takes place.

Oxygen and carbon isotope data from late calcite and zeolite pore-fill cements at DSDP Site 445

Oxygen isotopic composition of zeolite pore-fill cements in andesitic volcaniclastic sandstones recovered from DSDP Site 445 ranges from +30.1 to +17.8? (SMOW) downhole. This change is controlled by large heat flow from the basement which caused early diagenetic emplacement of zeolites during early basin rifting. d18O-values of late calcite cements range from +25.1 to +27.4? (SMOW); their petrographic relation and inferred temperature of formation suggest that calcite cements were formed during late stages of diagenesis. Isotopic composition in these sandstones is in agreement with mineral paragenesis determined microscopically.

Sedimentological, biogeomcial and geochronological data of thermokarst lake sediment core PG1967

Ice-rich permafrost landscapes are sensitive to climate and environmental change due to the melt-out of ground ice during thermokarst development. Thermokarst processes in the northern Yukon Territory are currently not well-documented. Lake sediments from Herschel Island (69°36'N; 139°04'W) in the western Canadian Arctic provide a record of thermokarst lake development since the early Holocene. A 727 cm long lake sediment core was analyzed for radiographic images, magnetic susceptibility, granulometry, and biogeochemical parameters (organic carbon, nitrogen, and stable carbon isotopes). Based on eight calibrated AMS radiocarbon dates, the sediment record covers the last ~ 11,500 years and was divided into four lithostratigraphic units (A to D) reflecting different thermokarst stages. Thermokarst initiation at the study area began ~ 11.5 cal ka BP. From ~ 11.5 to 10.0 cal ka BP, lake sediments of unit A started to accumulate in an initial lake basin created by melt-out of massive ground ice and thaw subsidence. Between 10.0 and 7.0 cal ka BP (unit B) the lake basin expanded in size and depth, attributed to talik formation during the Holocene thermal maximum. Higher-than-modern summer air temperatures led to increased lake productivity and widespread terrain disturbances in the lake's catchment. Thermokarst lake development between 7.0 and 1.8 cal ka BP (unit C) was characterized by a dynamic equilibrium, where lake basin and talik steadily expanded into ambient ice-rich terrain through shoreline erosion. Once lakes become deeper than the maximum winter lake ice thickness, thermokarst lake sediments show a great preservation potential. However, site-specific geomorphic factors such as episodic bank-shore erosion or sudden drainage through thermo-erosional valleys or coastal erosion breaching lake basins can disrupt continuous deposition. A hiatus in the record from 1.8 to 0.9 cal ka BP in Lake Herschel likely resulted from lake drainage or allochthonous slumping due to collapsing shore lines before continuous sedimentation of unit D recommenced during the last 900 years.

Parameterization of applied general equilibrium models with flexible trade specifications based on the Armington, Krugman, and Melitz models

This paper explains how the Armington-Krugman-Melitz supermodel developed by Dixon and Rimmer can be parameterized, and demonstrates that only two kinds of additional information are required in order to extend a standard trade model to include Melitz-type monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms. Further, it is shown how specifying too much additional information leads to violations of the model constraints, necessitating adjustment and reconciliation of the data. Once a Melitz-type model is parameterized, a Krugman-type model can also be parameterized using the calibrated values in the Melitz-type model without any additional data. Sample code for the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) has also been prepared to promote the innovative supermodel in the AGE community.

Neutrality in the choice of number of firms or level of fixed costs in calibrating an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module for applied general equilibrium models

This paper shows how an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module based on Dixon and Rimmer (2012) can be calibrated, and clarifies the choice of initial levels for two kinds of number of firms, or parameter values for two kinds of fixed costs, that enter a Melitz-type specification can be set freely to any preferred value, just as the cases we derive quantities from given value data assuming some of the initial prices to be unity. In consequence, only one kind of additional information, which is on the shape parameter related to productivity, just is required in order to incorporate Melitz-type monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms into a standard applied general equilibrium model. To be a Krugman-type, nothing is needed. This enables model builders in applied economics to fully enjoy the featured properties of the theoretical models invented by Krugman (1980) and Melitz (2003) in practical policy simulations at low cost.

Contribution to Theme A of the Benchmark Workshop: Effect of Concrete Swelling on the Equilibrium and Displacements of an Arch Dam

The Kariba dam is undergoing concrete expansion as a result of an alkali-aggregate reaction. The model adopted to simulate the process is explained in the paper; it is based on the model first proposed by Ulm et al, as later modified by Saouma and Perotti. It has been implemented in the commercial finite element code Abaqus and applied to solve the benchmark problem. The parameters of the model were calibrated using the data recorded up to 1995. The calibrated model was then used for predicting the evolution of the dam up to the present date. Apart from this prediction the paper offers a number of conclusions, such as the fact that the stress level appears to have a major influence on the expansion process; and it presents some suggestions to improve the formulation of the benchmark, such as providing temperature data and widening the locations and conditions of the data employed in the calibration

Effect of Concrete Swelling on the Equilibrium and Displacements of an Arch Dam

The Kariba dam is undergoing concrete expansion as a result of an alkali-aggregate reaction. The model adopted to simulate the process is explained in the paper; it is based on the model first proposed by Ulm et al, as later modified by Saouma and Perotti. It has been implemented in the commercial finite element code Abaqus and applied to solve the benchmark problem. The parameters of the model were calibrated using the data recorded up to 1995. The calibrated model was then used for predicting the evolution of the dam up to the present date. Apart from this prediction the paper offers a number of conclusions, such as the fact that the stress level appears to have a major influence on the expansion process; and it presents some suggestions to improve the formulation of the benchmark, such as providing temperature data and widening the locations and conditions of the data employed in the calibration