植物稳定同位素多尺度、高分辨率古气候信息综合辨识-以安图红松和红原泥炭为例

植物稳定同位素气候学因其具有坚实的理论基础，在古气候研究中倍受关注。同位素“语言”对气候变化的记录是一种“精确”记录。近30多年来，大量科学家不懈努力，提出并完善了植物C、H、O同位素分馏模型，为全球气候变化提供了理想的研究手段。古气候研究面临空前的机遇和挑战；不论是气候规律的发掘以及气候驱动机制的探讨，均需要大力加强。作者利用植物同位素气候学这一理想的研究“工具”，分别选取树轮和泥炭气候历史档案库作为信息载体，开展了中国全新世以来高分辨率、多时间尺度的气候信息综合辨识。我的工作表明：植物稳定同位素组成是理想的气候代用指标。树轮、泥炭档案库相结合，可以获得多尺度（年际、代际、百年以及千年时间尺度）、高分辨率气候信息，对于认识全球气候变化规律以及深入探讨全球气候动力学机制是十分重要的。1、安图红松树轮同位素气候代用记录研究（1）安图红松树轮同位素组成受多种气象因子的联合作用，因而单一地将某一同位素指标与某一气象因子做回归分析所得结果不甚理想。本论文构建了“温度一湿度”复合气候指标，取得了理想的结果。研究发现，不论是树轮δ13C还是δ18O，均与5-8月温湿复合指标显著相关。重建的气候变化与《安图县志》记录的气候变化事件大多吻合。证明这种新的研究方案是可行的，值得在以后的工作中进一步加强。（2）安图红松树轮δ13C灵敏地记录了该区过去200年来5-7月低云量变化。综合分析各种气象要素之间的相关关系以及气象要素与树轮δ13C之间的相关关系，作者认为，低云量对树轮δ13C的影响是一种间接影响。低云量非常显著地影响日照强度以及降雨量等气象因子，进而借助于日照强度及降雨量等气象因子在树轮δ13C中留下自身的变化“印记”。（3）功率谱分析证明，安图红松树轮δ13C、δ18O序列均包含了显著的准2年周期、准4年周期、准10-8年周期。分别是对东亚夏季风准两年振荡（QBO），ENSO准4年周期，太阳活动准11年周期的响应。（4）作者在传统树轮氢、氧同位素分馏模型基础上，同时引入“交换因子”和“蒸腾因子”两个新参数，改进了树轮氢、氧同位素分馏模型。改进的模型能利用树轮H、O同位素组成较准确模拟大气降水H、O同位素组成。改进的模型采用“自适应”方式，具有很大的灵活性，可望用于“用泥炭同位素组成模拟大气降水同位素组成”这项研究中。2、红原泥炭氧同位素气候代用记录研究（1）过去6000年来，红原温度变化趋势与金川、敦德温度变化趋势有很好的相似性，证明中国大多地区温度变化趋势是一致的。6000～4000aBP平均温度水平较低；4000-1500 aBP平均温度水平较高；1500aBP至今平均温度水平相对较低。4000aBP和1500aBP是近6000年温度变化序列中两个显著的转折点。（2）红原温度变化序列中记录到一系列低温突变，这些突变事件与金川、敦德、格陵兰、北大西洋，等等，广泛区域内温度突变事件具有很好的一致性。特别地，每当一次低温突变事件发生，通常有相应的社会结构重整、社会崩溃、古文明坍塌等重大历史事件与之对应。这进一步证实，气候变化（特别是气候突变）对整个社会经济和文明的冲击是十分明显的。（3）近6000年红原、金川温度变化趋势与大气14C变化趋势非常相似，暗示中国地区温度变化的主要驱动力来自太阳活动。功率谱分析进一步证实了这一结论。功率谱分析中最显著的周期信号是88-yr和123-127-yr年周期，体现了一种典型的世纪尺度温度变化特征。3、综合讨论（1）“红原-金川”平均温度变化趋势显示，近千年中国平均温度变化与经典的太阳活动极小期，如Darton极小、Maunder极小、sp6rer极小、oort极小，等等，表现一致。表明中国气温变化主要驱动力来自太阳活动。大约在1050-1250AD期间，中国温度水平较高。而同期大气14C，南极冰心10Be以及模拟的总太阳辐射等均表明太阳活动处于较高水平。大量树轮记录也表明近百年中国并无异常升温。这些资料表明，最近百年气温变化可能并未超出自然变率。（2）提出了“大洋温盐环流一季风”概念模型。这一模型能很好解释北大西洋温度突变与印度洋夏季风突变的一致性、中国东北和西南长期降雨趋势的反相性、北太平洋（温盐环流上翻区）温度记录与北大西洋温度记录的“跷跷板”效应（seesaw effect），等等。大洋温盐环流可能是主宰印度洋夏季风区、东亚夏季风区长期干湿变迁的主要因素。

Precipitation predictability during summer crop production in the Pampas Region of Argentina

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Precipitation predictability during summer crop production in the Pampas Region of Argentina

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Caracterización del régimen de heladas meteorológicas y agrometeorológicas en Balcarce (Argentina) en el período 1970 - 1999

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Número de días con precipitación en años Niño y Niña en al región Pampeana Argentina

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North Atlantic climatic signals and the plankton of the European Continental Shelf

Climatic variability on the European Continental Shelf is dominated by events over the North Atlantic Ocean, and in particular by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO is essentially a winter phenomenon, and its effects will be felt most strongly by populations for which winter conditions are critical. One example is the copepod Calanus finmarchicus, whose northern North Sea populations overwinter at depth in the North Atlantic. Its annual abundance in this region is strongly dependent on water transports at the end of the winter, and hence on the NAO index. Variations in the NAO give rise to changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, with additional perturbations arising from El Ni (n) over tildeo - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the Pacific, and these changes can be delayed by several years because of the adjustment time of the ocean circulation. One measure of the circulation is the latitude of the north wall of the Gulf Stream (GSNW index). Interannual variations in the plankton of the Shelf Seas show strong correlations with the fluctuations of the GSNW index, which are the result of Atlantic-wide atmospheric processes. These associations imply that the interannual variations are climatically induced rather than due to natural fluctuations of the marine ecosystem, and that the zooplankton populations have not been significantly affected by anthropogenic processes such as nutrient enrichment or fishing pressure. While the GSNW index represents a response to atmospheric changes over two or more years, the zooplankton populations correlated with it have generation times of a few weeks. The simplest explanation for the associations between the zooplankton and the GSNW index is that the plankton are responding to weather patterns propagating downstream from the Gulf Stream system. It seems that these meteorological processes operate in the spring. Although it has been suggested that there was a regime shift in the North Sea in the late 1980s, examination of the time-series by the cumulative sum (CUSUM) technique shows that any changes in the zooplankton of the central and northern North Sea are consistent with the background climatic variability. The abundance of total copepods increased during this period but this change does not represent a dramatic change in ecosystem processes. It is possible some change may have occurred at the end of the time-series in the years 1997 and 1998.

Coccolithophore surface distributions in the North Atlantic and their modulation of the air-sea flux of CO2 from 10 years of satellite Earth observation data

Coccolithophores are the primary oceanic phytoplankton responsible for the production of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). These climatically important plankton play a key role in the oceanic carbon cycle as a major contributor of carbon to the open ocean carbonate pump (similar to 50 %) and their calcification can affect the atmosphere-to-ocean (air-sea) uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) through increasing the seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO(2)). Here we document variations in the areal extent of surface blooms of the globally important coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi, in the North Atlantic over a 10-year period (1998-2007), using Earth observation data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). We calculate the annual mean sea surface areal coverage of E. huxleyi in the North Atlantic to be 474 000 +/- 104 000 km(2), which results in a net CaCO3 carbon (CaCO3-C) production of 0.14-1.71 Tg CaCO3-C per year. However, this surface coverage (and, thus, net production) can fluctuate inter-annually by -54/+81% about the mean value and is strongly correlated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate oscillation index (r = 0.75, p < 0.02). Our analysis evaluates the spatial extent over which the E. huxleyi blooms in the North Atlantic can increase the pCO(2) and, thus, decrease the localised air-sea flux of atmospheric CO2. In regions where the blooms are prevalent, the average reduction in the monthly air-sea CO2 flux can reach 55%. The maximum reduction of the monthly air-sea CO2 flux in the time series is 155 %. This work suggests that the high variability, frequency and distribution of these calcifying plankton and their impact on pCO(2) should be considered if we are to fully understand the variability of the North Atlantic air-to-sea flux of CO2. We estimate that these blooms can reduce the annual N. Atlantic net sink atmospheric CO2 by between 3-28 %.

Coccolithophore surface distributions in the North Atlantic and their modulation of the air-sea flux of CO2 from 10 years of satellite Earth observation data

Coccolithophores are the primary oceanic phytoplankton responsible for the production of calcium carbonate (CaCO3). These climatically important plankton play a key role in the oceanic carbon cycle as a major contributor of carbon to the open ocean 5 carbonate pump (�50%) and their formation can affect the atmosphere-to-ocean (airsea) uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) through increasing the seawater partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). Here we document variations in the areal extent of surface blooms of the globally important coccolithophore, Emiliania huxleyi, in the North Atlantic over a 10-year period (1998–2007), using Earth observation data from the Sea-viewing Wide 10 Field of view Sensor (SeaWiFS).We calculate the annual mean surface areal coverage of E. huxleyi in the North Atlantic to be 474 000±119 000km2 yr−1, which results in a net CaCO3 production of 0.62±0.15 Tg CaCO3 carbon per year. However, this surface coverage and net production can fluctuate by −54/+81% about these mean values and are strongly correlated with the El Ni˜no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate os15 cillation index (r =0.75, p<0.02). Our analysis evaluates the spatial extent over which the E. huxleyi blooms in the North Atlantic can increase the pCO2 and thus decrease the localised sink of atmospheric CO2. In regions where the blooms are prevalent, the average reduction in the monthly CO2 sink can reach 12 %. The maximum reduction of the monthly CO2 sink in the time series is 32 %. This work suggests that the high 20 variability, frequency and distribution of these calcifying plankton and their impact on pCO2 should be considered within modelling studies of the North Atlantic if we are to fully understand the variability of its air-to-sea CO2 flux.

Comparison of new and primary production models using SeaWiFS data in contrasting hydrographic zones of the northern North Atlantic.

The accuracy of two satellite models of marine primary (PP) and new production (NP) were assessed against 14C and 15N uptake measurements taken during six research cruises in the northern North Atlantic. The wavelength resolving model (WRM) was more accurate than the Vertical General Production Model (VGPM) for computation of both PP and NP. Mean monthly satellite maps of PP and NP for both models were generated from 1997 to 2010 using SeaWiFS data for the Irminger basin and North Atlantic. Intra- and inter-annual variability of the two models was compared in six hydrographic zones. Both models exhibited similar spatio-temporal patterns: PP and NP increased from April to June and decreased by August. Higher values were associated with the East Greenland Current (EGC), Iceland Basin (ICB) and the Reykjanes Ridge (RKR) and lower values occurred in the Central Irminger Current (CIC), North Irminger Current (NIC) and Southern Irminger Current (SIC). The annual PP and NP over the SeaWiFS record was 258 and 82 gC m-2 yr-1 respectively for the VGPM and 190 and 41 gC m-2 yr-1 for the WRM. Average annual cumulative sum in the anomalies of NP for the VGPM were positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the EGC, CIC and SIC and negatively correlated with the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) in the ICB. By contrast, cumulative sum of the anomalies of NP for the WRM were significantly correlated with NAO only in the EGC and CIC. NP from both VGPM and WRM exhibited significant negative correlations with Arctic Oscillation (AO) in all hydrographic zones. The differences in estimates of PP and NP in these hydrographic zones arise principally from the parameterisation of the euphotic depth and the SST dependence of photo-physiological term in the VGPM, which has a greater sensitivity to variations in temperature than the WRM. In waters of 0 to 5C PP using the VGPM was 43% higher than WRM, from 5 to 10C the VGPM was 29% higher and from 10 to 15C the VGPM was 27% higher.

Satellite estimates of net community production indicate predominance of net autotrophy in the Atlantic Ocean

There is ongoing debate as to whether the oligotrophic ocean is predominantly net autotrophic and acts as a CO2 sink, or net heterotrophic and therefore acts as a CO2 source to the atmosphere. This quantification is challenging, both spatially and temporally, due to the sparseness of measurements. There has been a concerted effort to derive accurate estimates of phytoplankton photosynthesis and primary production from satellite data to fill these gaps; however there have been few satellite estimates of net community production (NCP). In this paper, we compare a number of empirical approaches to estimate NCP from satellite data with in vitro measurements of changes in dissolved O2 concentration at 295 stations in the N and S Atlantic Ocean (including the Antarctic), Greenland and Mediterranean Seas. Algorithms based on power laws between NCP and particulate organic carbon production (POC) derived from 14C uptake tend to overestimate NCP at negative values and underestimate at positive values. An algorithm that includes sea surface temperature (SST) in the power function of NCP and 14C POC has the lowest bias and root-mean square error compared with in vitro measured NCP and is the most accurate algorithm for the Atlantic Ocean. Nearly a 13 year time series of NCP was generated using this algorithm with SeaWiFS data to assess changes over time in different regions and in relation to climate variability. The North Atlantic subtropical and tropical Gyres (NATL) were predominantly net autotrophic from 1998 to 2010 except for boreal autumn/winter, suggesting that the northern hemisphere has remained a net sink for CO2 during this period. The South Atlantic subtropical Gyre (SATL) fluctuated from being net autotrophic in austral spring-summer, to net heterotrophic in austral autumn–winter. Recent decadal trends suggest that the SATL is becoming more of a CO2 source. Over the Atlantic basin, the percentage of satellite pixels with negative NCP was 27%, with the largest contributions from the NATL and SATL during boreal and austral autumn–winter, respectively. Variations in NCP in the northern and southern hemispheres were correlated with climate indices. Negative correlations between NCP and the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) occurred in the SATL, which explained up to 60% of the variability in NCP. Similarly there was a negative correlation between NCP and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Southern Sub-Tropical Convergence Zone (SSTC),which explained 90% of the variability. There were also positive correlations with NAO in the Canary Current Coastal Upwelling (CNRY) and Western Tropical Atlantic (WTRA)which explained 80% and 60% of the variability in each province, respectively. MEI and NAO seem to play a role in modifying phases of net autotrophy and heterotrophy in the Atlantic Ocean.

Impacts of Climate Modes on Air-Sea Heat Exchange in the Red Sea

The impacts of various climate modes on the Red Sea surface heat exchange are investigated using the MERRA reanalysis and the OAFlux satellite reanalysis datasets. Seasonality in the atmospheric forcing is also explored. Mode impacts peak during boreal winter [December–February (DJF)] with average anomalies of 12–18 W m−2 to be found in the northern Red Sea. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic–west Russia (EAWR) pattern, and the Indian monsoon index (IMI) exhibit the strongest influence on the air–sea heat exchange during the winter. In this season, the largest negative anomalies of about −30 W m−2 are associated with the EAWR pattern over the central part of the Red Sea. In other seasons, mode-related anomalies are considerably lower, especially during spring when the mode impacts are negligible. The mode impacts are strongest over the northern half of the Red Sea during winter and autumn. In summer, the southern half of the basin is strongly influenced by the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). The winter mode–related anomalies are determined mostly by the latent heat flux component, while in summer the shortwave flux is also important. The influence of the modes on the Red Sea is found to be generally weaker than on the neighboring Mediterranean basin.

Early Holocene vegetation, human activity and climate from Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo

A 40mcore from Loagan Bunut,Malaysian Borneo, yielded a high-resolution early Holocene (11.3e6.75 ka) sequence of marginal-marine deposits. Palynological analysis showed relatively stable fire-regulated lowland forest through this time, with the local development and regression of mangrove vegetation. A general trend of rising rainfall and thus strengthening North East monsoonal circulation linked to the migration of the mean position of the ICTZ was interrupted by what may be episodes of drier climate and weakening monsoonal activity at 9250-8890, 7900 and 7600-7545 cal. BP. Magnetic susceptibility peaks suggestmarked short-term ENSO-style activity superimposed upon this record. Repeated markers for openand disturbed habitats, plus occasional imported and probably-cultivated taxa, point towards human impact from the earliest Holocene on the wet tropical forest at Loagan Bunut.

Influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and solar forcing on climate and primary productivity changes in the northeast Pacific

Evidence of 11-year Schwabe solar sunspot cycles, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were detected in an annual record of diatomaceous laminated sediments from anoxic Effingham Inlet, Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Radiometric dating and counting of annual varves dates the sediments from AD 1947-1993. Intact sediment slabs were X-rayed for sediment structure (lamina thickness and composition based on gray-scale), and subsamples were examined for diatom abundances and for grain size. Wavelet analysis reveals the presence of ~2-3, ~4.5, ~7 and ~9-12-year cycles in the diatom record and an w11e13 year record in the sedimentary varve thickness record. These cycle lengths suggest that both ENSO and the sunspot cycle had an influence on primary productivity and sedimentation patterns. Sediment grain size could not be correlated to the sunspot cycle although a peak in the grain size data centered around the mid-1970s may be related to the 1976-1977 Pacific climate shift, which occurred when the PDO index shifted from negative (cool conditions) to positive (warm conditions). Additional evidence of the PDO regime shift is found in wavelet and cross-wavelet results for Skeletonema costatum, a weakly silicified variant of S. costatum, annual precipitation and April to June precipitation. Higher spring (April/May) values of the North Pacific High pressure index during sunspot minima suggest that during this time, increased cloud cover and concomitant suppression of the Aleutian Low (AL) pressure system led to strengthened coastal upwelling and enhanced diatom production earlier in the year. These results suggest that the 11-year solar cycle, amplified by cloud cover and upwelling changes, as well as ENSO, exert significant influence on marine primary productivity in the northeast Pacific. The expression of these cyclic phenomena in the sedimentary record were in turn modulated by the phase of PDO, as indicated by the change in period of ENSO and suppression of the solar signal in the record after the 1976-1977 regime shift. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Información biológico-pesquera de los principales recursos demersales en el Perú

Se presentan las principales características biológico-pesqueras de los recursos demersales en el Perú y su relación con cambios océano-atmosféricos (ENSO), así como los efectos que tiene este fenómeno en la dinámica poblacional. Los datos considerados, ponen en evidencia la concentración de este tipo de recursos al norte de los 10º S. El seguimiento de la pesquería de estos recursos está considerado en términos de desembarques globales durante una serie histórica (1950-1992)

Aspectos biológicos de los principales recursos pelágicos durante el crucero BIC Humboldt 9711 de Huacho a Pacasmayo

Durante el periodo de estudio se iniciaba la segunda fase del fenómeno El Niño 1997-98, el área prospectada se encontraba invadida por las Aguas Subtropicales Superficiales con un pequeño afloramiento a la altura de Huacho, éste fue atípico ya que presentó aguas relativamente cálidas y salinidades mayores de 35,1%. La intromisión de las Aguas Subtropicales Superficiales hacia la costa se evidenció por las mayores capturas de anchoveta dentro de las 10 mn, así como por la presencia de la sardina, jurel y caballa que suelen encontrarse normalmente en las proximidades del frente oceánico en áreas costeras. Las mayores capturas estuvieron dadas por la anchoveta Engraulis ringens y en mucho menor porcentaje fueron halladas las otras especies pelágicas importantes: sardina Sardinops sagax, la caballa Scomber japonicus y el jurel Trachurus picturatus murphyi. Las anchovetas eran en su mayoría individuos adultos; la sardina, jurel y caballa, mayormente individuos juveniles. La anchoveta se encontraba en pleno desove, pero con un porcentaje alto de individuos que ya habían desovado. En el caso de la sardina el desove estaba finalizando y para la caballa se encontró un alto porcentaje de individuos en desove. Las especies más incidentes en los lances de comprobación, independientemente de los principales recursos pelágicos, fueron el calamar, el espejo (Selene peruvianus), la cachema (Cynoscion analis), el pámpano (Trachinotus paitensis) y el pampanito (Stromateus stellatus). Con respecto a las especies incidentalmente encontradas, como el pampano, el pampanito, el falso volador, el espejo, podrían estar indicando el desplazamiento de las Aguas Ecuatoriales al sur de su distribución habitual.