Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops

Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO2] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO2] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in + 1 degrees C steps) and temperature variability (0% and + 50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein.

Statistical modelling of grapevine yield in the Port Wine region under present and future climate conditions

The impact of projected climate change on wine production was analysed for the Demarcated Region of Douro, Portugal. A statistical grapevine yield model (GYM) was developed using climate parameters as predictors. Statistically significant correlations were identified between annual yield and monthly mean temperatures and monthly precipitation totals during the growing cycle. These atmospheric factors control grapevine yield in the region, with the GYM explaining 50.4% of the total variance in the yield time series in recent decades. Anomalously high March rainfall (during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development) favours yield, as well as anomalously high temperatures and low precipitation amounts in May and June (May: flowering and June: berry development). The GYM was applied to a regional climate model output, which was shown to realistically reproduce the GYM predictors. Finally, using ensemble simulations under the A1B emission scenario, projections for GYM-derived yield in the Douro Region, and for the whole of the twenty-first century, were analysed. A slight upward trend in yield is projected to occur until about 2050, followed by a steep and continuous increase until the end of the twenty-first century, when yield is projected to be about 800 kg/ha above current values. While this estimate is based on meteorological parameters alone, changes due to elevated CO2 may further enhance this effect. In spite of the associated uncertainties, it can be stated that projected climate change may significantly benefit wine yield in the Douro Valley.

Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981-2010) to the future (2070-2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude, particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2 than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar, so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore, this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies.

Efeito do aumento da concentração de dióxido de carbono do ar sobre a murcha de ceratocystis em mudas clonais de eucalipto

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A sewage sludge co-composting process using respirometric monitoring method in hermetic rotary reactor

This paper has the objective of monitoring the biological activity of composting process of sewage sludge, sugarcane bagasse and ground coffee in a hermetic rotary reactor using the respirometric method in laboratory scale, in order to obtain parameters and system design for large scale projects. Another particularity of this study is the use of a hermetic reactor with gas purging cycles. Purging was performed when the percentage of oxygen reached less than 5%, thus eliminating the gaseous mixture (with elevated CO2 ratio) and the introduction of environmental air with around 21% of O2, successively until the compost was stabilized. The average purge intervals obtained were 29 h and 2 min with reactor rotation frequency of 15 min. The time of the compost stabilization was optimized in 60% if compared to the 90 days in the traditional method. The results obtained can be used to design the process in industrial scale using a simple O2 gas analyzer.

Plasticity of stomatal distribution pattern and stem tracheid dimensions in Podocarpus lambertii: an ecological study

Leaf and wood plasticity are key elements in the survival of widely distributed plant species. Little is known, however, about variation in stomatal distribution in the leaf epidermis and its correlation with the dimensions of conducting cells in wood. This study aimed at testing the hypothesis that Podocarpus lambertii, a conifer tree, possesses a well-defined pattern of stomatal distribution, and that this pattern can vary together with the dimensions of stem tracheids as a possible strategy to survive in climatically different sites. Leaves and wood were sampled from trees growing in a cold, wet site in south-eastern Brazil and in a warm, dry site in north-eastern Brazil. Stomata were thoroughly mapped in leaves from each study site to determine a spatial sampling strategy. Stomatal density, stomatal index and guard cell length were then sampled in three regions of the leaf: near the midrib, near the leaf margin and in between the two. This sampling strategy was used to test for a pattern and its possible variation between study sites. Wood and stomata data were analysed together via principal component analysis. The following distribution pattern was found in the south-eastern leaves: the stomatal index was up to 25 higher in the central leaf region, between the midrib and the leaf margin, than in the adjacent regions. The inverse pattern was found in the north-eastern leaves, in which the stomatal index was 10 higher near the midrib and the leaf margin. This change in pattern was accompanied by smaller tracheid lumen diameter and length. Podocarpus lambertii individuals in sites with higher temperature and lower water availability jointly regulate stomatal distribution in leaves and tracheid dimensions in wood. The observed stomatal distribution pattern and variation appear to be closely related to the placement of conducting tissue in the mesophyll.

Der Austausch von Carbonylsulfid (COS) zwischen Vegetation und Atmosphäre unter erhöhter CO 2-Umgebungskonzentration

The responses of photosynthetic plant gas exchange, COS uptake and carbonic anhydrase (CA) activity were studied on Quercus ilex (Holm oak), and beech Fagus sylvatica L

Central European hardwood trees in a high-CO 2 future: synthesis of an 8-year forest canopy CO 2 enrichment project

Rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2 is not only changing the climate system but may also affect the biosphere directly through stimulation of plant growth and ecosystem carbon and nutrient cycling. Although forest ecosystems play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, experimental information on forest responses to rising CO2 is scarce, due to the sheer size of trees. Here, we present a synthesis of the only study world-wide where a diverse set of mature broadleaved trees growing in a natural forest has been exposed to future atmospheric CO2 levels (c. 550ppm) by free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE). We show that litter production, leaf traits and radial growth across the studied hardwood species remained unaffected by elevated CO2 over 8years. CO2 enrichment reduced tree water consumption resulting in detectable soil moisture savings. Soil air CO2 and dissolved inorganic carbon both increased suggesting enhanced below-ground activity. Carbon release to the rhizosphere and/or higher soil moisture primed nitrification and nitrate leaching under elevated CO2; however, the export of dissolved organic carbon remained unaltered.Synthesis. Our findings provide no evidence for carbon-limitation in five central European hardwood trees at current ambient CO2 concentrations. The results of this long-term study challenge the idea of a universal CO2 fertilization effect on forests, as commonly assumed in climate-carbon cycle models.

Past and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood harvest

Carbon emissions from anthropogenic land use (LU) and land use change (LUC) are quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the past and the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Wood harvesting and parallel abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in areas of shifting cultivation are explicitly simulated (gross LUC) based on the Land Use Harmonization (LUH) dataset and a proposed alternative method that relies on minimum input data and generically accounts for gross LUC. Cumulative global LUC emissions are 72 GtC by 1850 and 243 GtC by 2004 and 27–151 GtC for the next 95 yr following the different RCP scenarios. The alternative method reproduces results based on LUH data with full transition information within <0.1 GtC/yr over the last decades and bears potential for applications in combination with other LU scenarios. In the last decade, shifting cultivation and wood harvest within remaining forests including slash each contributed 19% to the mean annual emissions of 1.2 GtC/yr. These factors, in combination with amplification effects under elevated CO2, contribute substantially to future emissions from LUC in all RCPs.

Water-use efficiency and transpiration across European forests during the Anthropocene

The Earth’s carbon and hydrologic cycles are intimately coupled by gas exchange through plant stomata1, 2, 3. However, uncertainties in the magnitude4, 5, 6 and consequences7, 8 of the physiological responses9, 10 of plants to elevated CO2 in natural environments hinders modelling of terrestrial water cycling and carbon storage11. Here we use annually resolved long-term δ13C tree-ring measurements across a European forest network to reconstruct the physiologically driven response of intercellular CO2 (Ci) caused by atmospheric CO2 (Ca) trends. When removing meteorological signals from the δ13C measurements, we find that trees across Europe regulated gas exchange so that for one ppmv atmospheric CO2 increase, Ci increased by ~0.76 ppmv, most consistent with moderate control towards a constant Ci/Ca ratio. This response corresponds to twentieth-century intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) increases of 14 ± 10 and 22 ± 6% at broadleaf and coniferous sites, respectively. An ensemble of process-based global vegetation models shows similar CO2 effects on iWUE trends. Yet, when operating these models with climate drivers reintroduced, despite decreased stomatal opening, 5% increases in European forest transpiration are calculated over the twentieth century. This counterintuitive result arises from lengthened growing seasons, enhanced evaporative demand in a warming climate, and increased leaf area, which together oppose effects of CO2-induced stomatal closure. Our study questions changes to the hydrological cycle, such as reductions in transpiration and air humidity, hypothesized to result from plant responses to anthropogenic emissions.

Plant diversity drives soil microbial biomass carbon in grasslands irrespective of global environmental change factors

Soil microbial biomass is a key determinant of carbon dynamics in the soil. Several studies have shown that soil microbial biomass significantly increases with plant species diversity, but it remains unclear whether plant species diversity can also stabilize soil microbial biomass in a changing environment. This question is particularly relevant as many global environmental change (GEC) factors, such as drought and nutrient enrichment, have been shown to reduce soil microbial biomass. Experiments with orthogonal manipulations of plant diversity and GEC factors can provide insights whether plant diversity can attenuate such detrimental effects on soil microbial biomass. Here, we present the analysis of 12 different studies with 14 unique orthogonal plant diversity × GEC manipulations in grasslands, where plant diversity and at least one GEC factor (elevated CO2, nutrient enrichment, drought, earthworm presence, or warming) were manipulated. Our results show that higher plant diversity significantly enhances soil microbial biomass with the strongest effects in long-term field experiments. In contrast, GEC factors had inconsistent effects with only drought having a significant negative effect. Importantly, we report consistent non-significant effects for all 14 interactions between plant diversity and GEC factors, which indicates a limited potential of plant diversity to attenuate the effects of GEC factors on soil microbial biomass. We highlight that plant diversity is a major determinant of soil microbial biomass in experimental grasslands that can influence soil carbon dynamics irrespective of GEC.

Capsule gene regulation in Bacillus anthracis and implications for virulence

The poly-D-glutamic acid capsule of Bacillus anthracis is considered essential for lethal anthrax disease. Yet investigations of capsule function have been limited primarily to attenuated B. anthracis strains lacking certain genetic elements. In work presented in this thesis, I constructed and characterized a genetically complete (pXO1 + pXO2+) B. anthracis strain (UT500) and isogenic mutants deleted for two previously identified capsule gene regulators, atxA and acpA, and a newly-identified regulator, acpB. Results of transcriptional analysis and microscopy revealed that atxA controls expression of the first gene of the capsule biosynthesis operon, capB, via positive transcriptional regulation of acpA and acpB. acpA and acpB appear to be partial functional homologs. Deletion of either gene alone has little effect on capsule synthesis. However, a mutant deleted for both acpA and acpB is noncapsulated. Thus, in contrast to previously published models, my results suggest that atxA is the master regulator of cap gene expression in a genetically complete strain. A detailed transcriptional analysis of capB and the regulatory genes was performed to establish the effects of the regulators and CO2/bicarbonate on specific mRNAs of target genes. CO2/bicarbonate is a well-established signal for B. anthracis capsule synthesis in culture. Taqman RT-PCR results indicated that growth in the presence of elevated CO2 greatly increased expression of acpA, acpB and capB but not atxA. 5′ end mapping of capB and acpA revealed atxA-regulated and atxA-independent transcriptional start sites for both genes. All atxA-regulated start sites were also CO2-regulated. A single atxA-independent start site was identified 5 ′ of acpB. However, RT-PCR analysis indicated that capD and acpB are co-transcribed. Thus, it is likely that atxA-mediated control of acpB expression occurs via transcriptional activation of the atxA-regulated start sites of capB. Finally, I examined the contribution of the B. anthracis capsule to virulence. The virulence of the parent strain, mutants deleted for the capsule biosynthesis genes ( capBCAD), and mutants missing the capsule regulator genes was compared using a mouse model for inhalation anthrax. The data indicate that in this model, capsule is essential for virulence. Mice survived infection with the noncapsulated capBCAD and acpA acpB mutants. These mutants initiated germination in the lung, but did not disseminate to the spleen. The acpA mutant had an LD50 value similar to the parent strain and was able to disseminate and cause lethal infection. Unexpectedly, the acpB mutant had a higher LD 50 and a reduced ability to disseminate. During in vitro culture, the acpB single mutant produces capsule and toxin similar to the parent strain. It is likely that acpB regulates the expression of downstream genes that contribute to the virulence of B. anthracis. ^

Cis-acting elements and developmental regulators govern toxin gene expression in Bacillus anthracis

Expression of the structural genes for the anthrax toxin proteins is coordinately controlled by host-related signals such as elevated CO2 , and the trans-acting positive regulator, AtxA. No specific binding of AtxA to the toxin gene promoters has been demonstrated and no sequence-based similarities are apparent in the promoter regions of toxin genes. We hypothesized that the toxin genes possess common structural features that are required for positive regulation. To test this hypothesis, I performed an extensive characterization of the toxin gene promoters. I determined the minimal sequences required for atxA-mediated toxin gene expression and compared these sequences for structural similarities. In silico modeling and in vitro experiments indicated significant curvature within these regions. Random mutagenesis revealed that point mutations associated with reduced transcriptional activity, mostly mapped to areas of high curvature. This work enabled the identification of two potential cis-acting elements implicated in AtxA-mediated regulation of the toxin genes. In addition to the growth condition requirements and AtxA, toxin gene expression is under growth phase regulation. The transition state regulator AbrB represses atxA expression to influence toxin synthesis. Here I report that toxin gene expression also requires sigH, a gene encoding the RNA polymerase sigma factor associated with development in B. subtilis. In the well-studied B. subtilis system, σH is part of a feedback control pathway that involves AbrB and the major response regulator of sporulation initiation, Spo0A. My data indicate that in B. anthracis, regulatory relationships exist between these developmental regulators and atxA . Interestingly, during growth in toxin-inducing conditions, sigH and abrB expression deviates from that described for B. subtilis, affecting expression of the atxA gene. These findings, combined with previous observations, suggest that the steady state level of atxA expression is critical for optimal toxin gene transcription. I propose a model whereby, under toxin-inducing conditions, control of toxin gene expression is fine-tuned by the independent effects of the developmental regulators on the expression of atxA . The growth condition-dependent changes in expression of these regulators may be crucial for the correct timing and uninterrupted expression of the toxin genes during infection. ^