Excess power circulation in distribution networks containing distributed energy resources

The presence of large number of single-phase distributed energy resources (DERs) can cause severe power quality problems in distribution networks. The DERs can be installed in random locations. This may cause the generation in a particular phase exceeds the load demand in that phase. Therefore the excess power in that phase will be fed back to the transmission network. To avoid this problem, the paper proposes the use of distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) that needs to be connected at the first bus following a substation. When operated properly, the DSTATCOM can facilitate a set of balanced current flow from the substation, even when excess power is generated by DERs. The proposals are validated through extensive digital computer simulation studies using PSCAD and MATLAB.

An approach for current balancing in distribution networks with rooftop PVs

Current unbalance is a significant power quality problem in distribution networks. This problem increases further with the increased penetration of single-phase photovoltaic cells. In this paper, a new approach is developed for current unbalance reduction in medium voltage distribution networks. The method is based on utilization of three single-phase voltage source converters connected in delta configuration between the phases. Each converter is controlled to function as a varying capacitor. The combination of the load and the compensator will result in a balanced load with unity power factor. The efficacy of the proposed current unbalance reduction concept is verified through dynamic simulations in PSCAD/EMTDC.

Distribution feeder loads classification and decomposition

Load in distribution networks is normally measured at the 11kV supply points; little or no information is known about the type of customers and their contributions to the load. This paper proposes statistical methods to decompose an unknown distribution feeder load to its customer load sector/subsector profiles. The approach used in this paper should assist electricity suppliers in economic load management, strategic planning and future network reinforcements.

The spatial distribution of rodent damage in Australian macadamia (Macadamia integrifolia) orchards

The Black Rat (Rattus rattus), a global pest within the macadamia production industry, causes up to 30% crop damage in Australian orchards. During early stages of production in Australia, research demonstrated the importance of non crop adjacent habitats as significant in affecting the patterns of crop damage seen throughout orchards. Where once rodent damage was limited to the outside edges of orchard blocks, growers are now reporting finding crop damage throughout entire orchards. This study therefore aims to explore the spatial patterns of rodent distribution and damage now occurring in Australian macadamia orchards. We show that rodent damage and rodent distribution in these newer production regions differ from that shown in previous Australian research. Previous Australian research has shown damage patterns which were associated with the edges of orchard blocks however this study demonstrates a more widespread damage distribution. In the current study there is no relationship between rodent damage and the orchard edge. Arboreal rodent nests were identified within these newer orchard systems, suggesting rodents are residing within the tree component of the orchard system and not dependent on adjacent non-crop habitat for shelter. Results from this study confirm that rodents have modified their nesting and foraging behaviour in newer orchards systems in Australia. We suggest that this is a response of increased and prolonged availability of macadamia nuts in newer production regions enabling populations to be maintained throughout the year. Management strategies will require modification if control is to be achieved.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Is diurnal temperature range a risk factor for childhood diarrhea?

Background Previous studies have found that high and cold temperatures increase the risk of childhood diarrhea. However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any effect on childhood diarrhea. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range and emergency department admissions for diarrhea among children under five years in Brisbane, from 1st January 2003 to 31st December 2009. Results There was a statistically significant relationship between diurnal temperature range and childhood diarrhea. The effect of diurnal temperature range on childhood diarrhea was the greatest at one day lag, with a 3% (95% confidence interval: 2%–5%) increase of emergency department admissions per 1°C increment of diurnal temperature range. Conclusion Within-day variation of temperature appeared to be a risk factor for childhood diarrhea. The incidence of childhood diarrhea may increase if climate variability increases as predicted.

Return distribution predictability and its implications for portfolio selection

The inquiries to return predictability are traditionally limited to conditional mean, while literature on portfolio selection is replete with moment-based analysis with up to the fourth moment being considered. This paper develops a distribution-based framework for both return prediction and portfolio selection. More specifically, a time-varying return distribution is modeled through quantile regressions and copulas, using quantile regressions to extract information in marginal distributions and copulas to capture dependence structure. A preference function which captures higher moments is proposed for portfolio selection. An empirical application highlights the additional information provided by the distributional approach which cannot be captured by the traditional moment-based methods.

Expression and distribution of cell-surface proteoglycans in the normal Lewis rat molar periodontium

Cell-surface proteoglycans participate in several biological functions such as cell cell and cell-matrix interactions, cell adhesion, the binding to various growth factors as co-receptors and repair. To understand better the expression and distribution of cell-surface proteoglycans in the periodontal tissues, an immunohistochemical evaluation of the normal Lewis rat molar periodontium using panels of antibodies for syndecan-1, -2, -4, glypican and betaglycan was carried out. Our results demonstrated the expression and distribution of all proteoglycans in the suprabasal gingival epithelium, soft and hard connective tissues. Both cellular and matrix localization was evident within the various periodontal compartments. The presence of these cell-surface proteoglycans indicates the potential for roles in the process of tissue homeostasis, repair or regeneration in periodontium of which each function requires further study.

Differential expression and distribution of syndecan-1 and -2 in periodontal wound healing of the rat

Cell-surface proteoglycans participate in several biological functions including interactions with adhesion molecules, growth factors and a variety of other effector molecules. Accordingly, these molecules play a central role in various aspects of cell–cell and cell–matrix interactions. To investigate the expression and distribution of the cell surface proteoglycans, syndecan-1 and -2, during periodontal wound healing, immunohistochemical analyses were carried out using monoclonal antibodies against syndecan-1, or -2 core proteins. Both syndecan-1 and -2 were expressed and distributed differentially at various stages of early inflammatory cell infiltration, granulation tissue formation, and tissue remodeling in periodontal wound healing. Expression of syndecan-1 was noted in inflammatory cells within and around the fibrin clots during the earliest stages of inflammatory cell infiltration. During granulation tissue formation it was noted in fibroblast-like cells and newly formed blood vessels. Syndecan-1 was not seen in newly formed bone or cementum matrix at any of the time periods studied. Syndecan-1 expression was generally less during the late stages of wound healing but was markedly expressed in cells that were close to the repairing junctional epithelium. In contrast, syndecan-2 expression and distribution was not evident at the early stages of inflammatory cell infiltration. During the formation of granulation tissue and subsequent tissue remodeling, syndecan-2 was expressed extracellularly in the newly formed fibrils which were oriented toward the root surface. Syndecan-2 was found to be significantly expressed on cells that were close to the root surface and within the matrix of repaired cementum covering root dentin as well as at the alveolar bone edge. These findings indicate that syndecan-1 and -2 may have distinctive functions during wound healing of the periodontium. The appearance of syndecan-1 may involve both cell–cell and cell–matrix interactions, while syndecan-2 showed a predilection to associate with cell–matrix interactions during hard tissue formation.