Asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in highly dependable systems

Abstract We consider a wide class of models that includes the highly reliable Markovian systems (HRMS) often used to represent the evolution of multi-component systems in reliability settings. Repair times and component lifetimes are random variables that follow a general distribution, and the repair service adopts a priority repair rule based on system failure risk. Since crude simulation has proved to be inefficient for highly-dependable systems, the RESTART method is used for the estimation of steady-state unavailability and other reliability measures. In this method, a number of simulation retrials are performed when the process enters regions of the state space where the chance of occurrence of a rare event (e.g., a system failure) is higher. The main difficulty involved in applying this method is finding a suitable function, called the importance function, to define the regions. In this paper we introduce an importance function which, for unbalanced systems, represents a great improvement over the importance function used in previous papers. We also demonstrate the asymptotic optimality of RESTART estimators in these models. Several examples are presented to show the effectiveness of the new approach, and probabilities up to the order of 10-42 are accurately estimated with little computational effort.

Combine use of Selected Schizosaccharomyces pombe and Lachancea thermotolerans Yeast Strains as an Alternative to the Traditional Malolactic Fermentation in Red Wine Production

Most red wines commercialized in the market use the malolactic fermentationprocess in order to ensure stability from a microbiological point of view. In this secondfermentation, malic acid is converted into L-lactic acid under controlled setups. Howeverthis process is not free from possible collateral effects that on some occasions produceoff-flavors, wine quality loss and human health problems. In warm viticulture regions suchas the south of Spain, the risk of suffering a deviation during the malolactic fermentationprocess increases due to the high must pH. This contributes to produce wines with highvolatile acidity and biogenic amine values. This manuscript develops a new red winemakingmethodology that consists of combining the use of two non-Saccharomyces yeast strains asan alternative to the traditional malolactic fermentation. In this method, malic acid is totallyconsumed by Schizosaccharomyces pombe, thus achieving the microbiological stabilizationobjective, while Lachancea thermotolerans produces lactic acid in order not to reduce andeven increase the acidity of wines produced from low acidity musts. This technique reducesthe risks inherent to the malolactic fermentation process when performed in warm regions.The result is more fruity wines that contain less acetic acid and biogenic amines than thetraditional controls that have undergone the classical malolactic fermentation.

Ribosome display efficiently selects and evolves high-affinity antibodies in vitro from immune libraries

Ribosome display was applied for affinity selection of antibody single-chain fragments (scFv) from a diverse library generated from mice immunized with a variant peptide of the transcription factor GCN4 dimerization domain. After three rounds of ribosome display, positive scFvs were isolated and characterized. Several different scFvs were selected, but those in the largest group were closely related to each other and differed in 0 to 5 amino acid residues with respect to their consensus sequence, the likely common progenitor. The best scFv had a dissociation constant of (4 ± 1) × 10−11 M, measured in solution. One amino acid residue in complementarity determining region L1 was found to be responsible for a 65-fold higher affinity than the likely progenitor. It appears that this high-affinity scFv was selected from the mutations occurring during ribosome display in vitro, and that this constitutes an affinity maturation inherent in this method. The in vitro-selected scFvs could be functionally expressed in the Escherichia coli periplasm with good yields or prepared by in vitro refolding. Thus, ribosome display can be a powerful methodology for in vitro library screening and simultaneous sequence evolution.

Down-regulation of pituitary receptors for luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LH-RH) in rats by LH-RH antagonist Cetrorelix.

Antagonists of luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LH-RH), unlike the LH-RH agonists, suppress gonadotropins and sex steroid secretion immediately after administration, without initial stimulatory effects. [Ac-D-Nal(2)1,D-Ph(4Cl)2,D-Pal(3)3,D-Cit6,D-Ala10]LH-R H (SB-75; Cetrorelix) is a modern, potent antagonistic analog of LH-RH. In this study, the binding characteristics of receptors for LH-RH in membrane fractions from rat anterior pituitaries were investigated after a single injection of Cetrorelix at a dose of 100 microg per rat. To determine whether the treatment with Cetrorelix can affect the concentration of measurable LH-RH binding sites, we applied an in vitro method to desaturate LH-RH receptors by chaotropic agents such as manganous chloride (MnCl2) and ammonium thiocyanate (NH4SCN). Our results show that the percentages of occupied LH-RH receptors at 1, 3, and 6 h after administration of Cetrorelix were approximately 28%, 14%, and 10%, respectively, of total receptors. At later time intervals, we could not detect occupied LH-RH binding sites. Ligand competition assays, following in vitro desaturation, demonstrated that rat pituitary LH-RH receptors were significantly (P < 0.01) down-regulated for at least 72 h after administration of Cetrorelix. The lowest receptor concentration was found 3-6 h after Cetrorelix treatment and a recovery in receptor number began within approximately 24 h. The down-regulation of LH-RH binding sites induced by Cetrorelix was accompanied by serum LH and testosterone suppression. Higher LH-RH receptor concentrations coincided with elevated serum hormone levels at later time intervals. Our results indicate that administration of LH-RH antagonist Cetrorelix produces a marked down-regulation of pituitary receptors for LH-RH and not merely an occupancy of binding sites.

A Comparative Analysis of Two Slug Test Methods in Puget Lowland Glacio-Fluvial Sediments near Coupeville, WA

Two different slug test field methods are conducted in wells completed in a Puget Lowland aquifer and are examined for systematic error resulting from water column displacement techniques. Slug tests using the standard slug rod and the pneumatic method were repeated on the same wells and hydraulic conductivity estimates were calculated according to Bouwer & Rice and Hvorslev before using a non-parametric statistical test for analysis. Practical considerations of performing the tests in real life settings are also considered in the method comparison. Statistical analysis indicates that the slug rod method results in up to 90% larger hydraulic conductivity values than the pneumatic method, with at least a 95% certainty that the error is method related. This confirms the existence of a slug-rod bias in a real world scenario which has previously been demonstrated by others in synthetic aquifers. In addition to more accurate values, the pneumatic method requires less field labor, less decontamination, and provides the ability to control the magnitudes of the initial displacement, making it the superior slug test procedure.

A discussion of cases in the 2001 RCPA-AQAP chemical pathology case report comments program

Aim: We present a descriptive analysis of the 10 case reports distributed in the Royal College of Pathologists of Australasia (RCPA) and the Australasian Association of Clinical Biochemists (AACB) Chemical Pathology Patient Report Comments Program to assess the quality of interpretative commenting in clinical biochemistry in 2001. Method: Participants were asked to comment on a given set of biochemistry results attached with brief clinical details. All responses received were translated into key phrases and graphically presented on a histogram. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the appropriateness of the key phrases and to propose a suggested composite comment. Results: While the majority of comments received were felt to be acceptable by the expert panel, some comments were felt to be inappropriate or misleading. As comments on laboratory reports may affect clinical management of patients, it is important that these comments reflect accepted practice and current guidelines. Conclusion: The Patient Report Comments Program may play an important role in continuing education and possibly in quality assurance of interpretative commenting.

Simple In Vitro Assay for Determining the Sensitivity of Plasmodium vivax Isolates from Fresh Human Blood to Antimalarials in Areas where P. vivax Is Endemic

The aim of this study was to develop a simple, field-practical, and effective in vitro method for determining the sensitivity of fresh erythrocytic Plasmodium vivax isolates to a range of antimalarials. The method used is a modification of the standard World Health Organization (WHO) microtest for determination of P.falciparum drug sensitivity. The WHO method was modified by removing leukocytes and using a growth medium supplemented with AB(+) serum. We successfully carried out 34 in vitro drug assays on 39 P. vivax isolates collected from the Mae Sod malaria clinic, Tak Province, Thailand. The mean percentage of parasites maturing to schizonts (six or more merozoites) in control wells was 66.5% +/- 5.9% (standard deviation). This level of growth in the control wells enabled rapid microscopic determination (5 min per isolate per drug) of the MICs of chloroquine, dihydroartemisinin, WR238605 (tafenoquine), and sulfadoxine. P. vivax was relatively sensitive to chloroquine (MIC = 160 ng/ml, 50% inhibitory concentration [IC50] = 49.8 ng/ml) and dihydroartemisinin (MIC = 0.5 ng/ml, IC50 = 0.47 ng/ml). The poor response of P. vivax to both tafenoquine (MIC = 14,000 ng/ml, IC50 = 9,739 ng/ml) and sulfadoxine (MIC = 500,000 ng/ml, IC50 = 249,000 ng/ml) was due to the slow action of these drugs and the innate resistance of P. vivax to sulfadoxine. The in vitro assay developed in our study should be useful both for assessing the antimalarial sensitivity of P. vivax populations and for screening new antimalarials in the absence of long-term P. vivax cultures.

Direct restorative materials use in Australia in 2002

Background: This study aimed to determine the reasons for dentists' choice of materials, in particular amalgam and resin composite, in Australia. Method: A questionnaire was developed to elicit this information. The names and addresses of 1000 dentists in Australia were selected at random. The questionnaire was mailed to these dentists with an explanatory letter and reply-paid envelope. Results: A total of 560 replies were received. Regarding choice of material, 99 per cent of respondents cited clinical indication as an influencing factor, although patients' aesthetic demands (99 per cent), patients' financial situation (82 per cent), and lecturers' suggestions (72 per cent) were also reported to influence respondents' choice of materials. Twelve per cent of respondents used composite 'always', 29 per cent 'often', 32 per cent 'sometimes', 23 per cent 'seldom' and 4 per cent 'never' in extensive load-bearing cavities in molar teeth. For composite restorations in posterior teeth, 84 per cent 'always', 'often' or 'sometimes' used the total etch technique, 84 per cent used a thick glass-ionomer layer and 36 per cent never used rubber dam. Fifty-nine per cent of respondents reported a decreased use of amalgam over the previous five years. Sixty-eight per cent of respondents agreed with the statement 'discontinuation of amalgam restricts a dentist's ability to adequately treat patients'. Seventy-five per cent considered that the growth in the use of composites increased the total cost of oral health care. Conclusions: Of the respondents from Australia 73 per cent place large composite restorations in molar teeth and their choice of material is influenced greatly by clinical indications, and patients' aesthetic demands.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health: vocational rehabilitation for schizophrenia and related conditions

Objective: Existing evidence suggests that vocational rehabilitation services, in particular individual placement and support (IPS), are effective in assisting people with schizophrenia and related conditions gain open employment. Despite this, such services are not available to all unemployed people with schizophrenia who wish to work. Existing evidence suggests that while IPS confers no clinical advantages over routine care, it does improve the proportion of people returning to employment. The objective of the current study is to investigate the net benefit of introducing IPS services into current mental health services in Australia. Method: The net benefit of IPS is assessed from a health sector perspective using cost-benefit analysis. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis of the net benefit, defined as the benefits of IPS (comprising transfer payments averted, income tax accrued and individual income earned) minus the costs. The second stage involves application of 'second-filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using the multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: The costs of IPS are $A10.3M (95% uncertainty interval $A7.4M-$A13.6M), the benefits are $A4.7M ($A3.1M-$A6.5M), resulting in a negative net benefit of $A5.6M ($A8.4M-$A3.4M). Conclusions: The current analysis suggests that IPS costs are greater than the monetary benefits. However, the evidence-base of the current analysis is weak. Structural conditions surrounding welfare payments in Australia create disincentives to full-time employment for people with disabilities.

Number and type of substances in alcohol and drug-related completed suicides in an Australian sample

Background: The association between substance use and suicide is well-established, but evidence is scant regarding the relationship between the number, type, and level of substances and other risk factors in completed suicide across the lifespan. Aims: To examine the relationship between social/demographic characteristics and the number, type, and level of drugs present in an unrestricted age sample of completed suicides in Australia. Method: An analysis was undertaken of 893 substance-related suicides using data from the Government Statistician's Office for the years 1989-1992. Results: The number and type of substances present in suicide victims was related to the individual's gender, age, marital status, employment status, and method of suicide. Blood alcohol level was significantly different between the methods of suicide, but was unrelated to demographic characteristics of the individual. The level of antidepressants and minor tranquilizers in the individuals was also unrelated to demographic characteristics. Conclusion: Examination of the type and number of substances present in completed suicides is an important component in creating profiles of potential suicide victims.

Mutation-based exploration of a method for verifying concurrent Java components

Summary form only given. The Java programming language supports concurrency. Concurrent programs are harder to verify than their sequential counterparts due to their inherent nondeterminism and a number of specific concurrency problems such as interference and deadlock. In previous work, we proposed a method for verifying concurrent Java components based on a mix of code inspection, static analysis tools, and the ConAn testing tool. The method was derived from an analysis of concurrency failures in Java components, but was not applied in practice. In this paper, we explore the method by applying it to an implementation of the well-known readers-writers problem and a number of mutants of that implementation. We only apply it to a single, well-known example, and so we do not attempt to draw any general conclusions about the applicability or effectiveness of the method. However, the exploration does point out several strengths and weaknesses in the method, which enable us to fine-tune the method before we carry out a more formal evaluation on other, more realistic components.

Technical innovation in industrial production

New techniques in manufacturing, popularly referred to as mechanization and automation, have been a preoccupation of social and economic theorists since the industrial revolution. A selection of relevant literature is reviewed, including the neoclassical economic treatment of technical change. This incorporates alterations to the mathematical production function and an associated increase in the efficiency with which the factors of production are converted into output. Other work emphasises the role of research and development and the process of diffusion, whereby new production techniques are propagated throughout industry. Some sociological writings attach importance to the type of production technology and its effect on the organisational structure and social relations within the factory. Nine detailed case studies are undertaken of examples of industrial innovation in the rubber, automobile, vehicle components, confectionery and clothing industries. The old and new techniques are compared for a range of variables, including capital equipment, labour employed, raw materials used, space requirements and energy consumption, which in most cases exhibit significant change with the innovation. The rate of output, labour productivity, product quality, maintenance requirements and other aspects are also examined. The process by which the change in production method was achieved is documented, including the development of new equipment and the strategy of its introduction into the factory, where appropriate. The firm, its environment, and the attitude of different sectors of the workforce are all seen to play a part in determining the motives for and consequences which flow from the innovations. The traditional association of technical progress with its labour-saving aspect, though an accurate enough description of the cases investigated, is clearly seen to afford an inadequate perspective for the proper understanding of this complex phenomenon, which also induces change in a wide range of other social, economic and technical variables.

Dissociable patterns of neural activity during response inhibition in depressed adolescents with and without suicidal behavior

Objectives - Impaired attentional control and behavioral control are implicated in adult suicidal behavior. Little is known about the functional integrity of neural circuitry supporting these processes in suicidal behavior in adolescence. Method - Functional magnetic resonance imaging was used in 15 adolescent suicide attempters with a history of major depressive disorder (ATTs), 15 adolescents with a history of depressive disorder but no suicide attempt (NATs), and 14 healthy controls (HCs) during the performance of a well-validated go-no-go response inhibition and motor control task that measures attentional and behavioral control and has been shown to activate prefrontal, anterior cingulate, and parietal cortical circuitries. Questionnaires assessed symptoms and standardized interviews characterized suicide attempts. Results - A 3 group by 2 condition (go-no-go response inhibition versus go motor control blocks) block-design whole-brain analysis (p < .05, corrected) showed that NATs showed greater activity than ATTs in the right anterior cingulate gyrus (p = .008), and that NATs, but not ATTs, showed significantly greater activity than HCs in the left insula (p = .004) to go-no-go response inhibition blocks. Conclusions - Although ATTs did not show differential patterns of neural activity from HCs during the go-no-go response inhibition blocks, ATTs and NATs showed differential activation of the right anterior cingulate gyrus during response inhibition. These findings indicate that suicide attempts during adolescence are not associated with abnormal activity in response inhibition neural circuitry. The differential patterns of activity in response inhibition neural circuitry in ATTs and NATs, however, suggest different neural mechanisms for suicide attempt versus major depressive disorder in general in adolescence that should be a focus of further study.

Supermode-noise suppression using a nonlinear Fabry–Pérot filter in a harmonically mode-locked fiber ring laser

A simple efficient method for stabilizing a harmonically mode-locked fiber ring laser is proposed. In this method, a linear optical filter and a nonlinear Fabry–Pérot filter in which the refractive index is optical intensity dependent are located in the laser cavity. The linear filter is used to select a fixed lasing wavelength, and the Fabry–Pérot filter introduces a negative all-optical feedback mechanism that is able to suppress pulse-to-pulse amplitude fluctuations in the laser cavity. The scheme was experimentally demonstrated using a fiber Bragg grating as the linear filter and a laser diode biased below threshold as the nonlinear Fabry–Pérot, and stable harmonically mode-locked pulses with a supermode noise suppression ratio >55 dB were obtained.

Noise suppression in a harmonically mode-locked fibre ring laser

A simple and efficient method to stabilise harmonically mode-locked fibre ring laser is proposed. In this method, a linear optical filter and a nonlinear Fabry-Perot filter are introduced into the laser cavity. Stable harmonically mode-locked pulses with supermode noise suppression ratio more than 55dB was demonstrated.