トルコにおける2015年総選挙とエルドアン体制の政策変容

In Turkey, the political system in which Recep Tayyip Erdoğan plays the most important role – the "Erdoğan regime" – has been in place since November 2002. After Erdoğan’s party, the Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP), won the general elections and he became the prime minster, they were successful in maintaining the single-party administration over ten years. Even since becoming the president and devolving the premiership to Ahmet Davutoğlu in August 2014, Erdoğan has been at the center of the Turkish parliamentary system. However, in the Turkish general elections in June 2015, the AKP failed to get a majority of parliamentary seats for the first time, and the Erdoğan regime seemed to be faced with a crisis. The regime was able to regain the single-party administration in the early general elections in November 2015 by carrying out significant political change after their first electoral defeat. In this sense, for Turkey and the Erdoğan regime, the year 2015 was not only the year of the election, but also of political change. This paper analyzes these two general elections in 2015 and the changes of the political tendencies of the Erdoğan regime which have been observed since the general elections in June 2015 in particular. It also focuses on the changes in the strategies and the relationships among Turkish political actors including President Erdoğan, the AKP government, and the other major political parties.

CONFLITO RELIGIOSO, MARTÍRIO E EXALTAÇÃO VISIONÁRIA: O CASO DE ESTEVÃO EM ATOS 6,1-8,3

Nesta dissertação nos propomos a fazer uma leitura da narrativa de Atos dos Apóstolos 6,1-8,3, considerando-a nos moldes de uma antiga tradição de martírio. Os Helenistas entram em conflito com os Hebreus, Estevão entra em atrito com os judeus da diáspora que se reúnem nas sinagogas, e é levado perante o Sinédrio e executado. O motivo de sua execução é a crítica à Lei e ao Templo. Depois de ter uma experiência de êxtase visionário ele é violentamente assassinado. Lucas, todavia, descreve Estevão como herói vitorioso. A realidade de conflitos, oposição, perseguição e martírio não se constitui em derrota, mas em fortalecimento da fé. A morte de Estevão é interpretada dentro desta tradição. A compreensão do caso de Estevão e dos Helenistas é fundamental para entender a continuação do movimento dos seguidores de Jesus e o início do desenvolvimento da Cristologia após o evento pascal.(AU)

La cultura política del sandinismo: nacimiento, desarrollo y realineamiento de una anomalía política centroamericana

Sandinista ideology and its political culture are born in 1927, with the refusal of the Pacto del Espino Negro by Augusto César Sandino, while its disappearance can be placed in 1999, date of the signature of the Liberal-Sandinista pact with which –effectively- the two main protagonist of nicaraguan politics at that time, Daniel Ortega and Arnoldo Alemán, halt the democratization process of Nicaragua, so putting on ice also its political development. Meanwhile, in the lapse of time between these two pacts, the most intense, feverish, dramatic and participated period of political history of the Central American country develops: an anti-imperialist guerrilla warfare ended in a bloodbath; a dynastic dictatorship of predatory authoritarianism for more than 40 years; a popular revolution that throws down the dictatorship; a decade of revolutionary government attacked by a counter-revolutionary war; an electoral defeat that will lead to a season of “pactismo” that will end the Sandinista anomaly and that will give an opening to something that we could consider –not with a certain difficulty- its pretence. The aim of this essay consists in analyzing how it has been possible that a political experience like the Sandinista Front , created not only for gaining power and for revolutionizing politically, socially and economically Nicaragua, but also for changing radically cultural, ethic and moral perspective of the country and its people, arrived being the contrary of what had been posed as the horizon to aspire...

Profiling in sport using momentum and perturbations

Examining a team’s performance from a physical point of view their momentum might indicate unexpected turning points in defeat or success. Physicists describe this value as to require some effort to be started, but also that it is relatively easy to keep it going once a sufficient level is reached (Reed and Hughes, 2006). Unlike football, rugby, handball and many more sports, a regular volleyball match is not limited by time but by points that need to be gathered. Every minute more than one point is won by either one team or the other. That means a series of successive points enlarges the gap between the teams making it more and more difficult to catch up with the leading one. This concept of gathering momentum, or the reverse in a performance, can give the coaches, athletes and sports scientists further insights into winning and losing performances. Momentum investigations also contain dependencies between performances or questions if future performances are reliant upon past streaks. Squash and volleyball share the characteristic of being played up to a certain amount of points. Squash was examined according to the momentum of players by Hughes et al. (2006). The initial aim was to expand normative profiles of elite squash players using momentum graphs of winners and errors to explore ‘turning points’ in a performance. Dynamic systems theory has enabled the definition of perturbations in sports exhibiting rhythms (Hughes et al., 2000; McGarry et al., 2002; Murray et al., 2008), and how players and teams cause these disruptions of rhythm can inform on the way they play, these techniques also contribute to profiling methods. Together with the analysis of one’s own performance it is essential to have an understanding of your oppositions’ tactical strengths and weaknesses. By modelling the oppositions’ performance it is possible to predict certain outcomes and patterns, and therefore intervene or change tactics before the critical incident occurs. The modelling of competitive sport is an informative analytic technique as it directs the attention of the modeller to the critical aspects of data that delineate successful performance (McGarry & Franks, 1996). Using tactical performance profiles to pull out and visualise these critical aspects of performance, players can build justified and sophisticated tactical plans. The area is discussed and reviewed, critically appraising the research completed in this element of Performance Analysis.

Annotated almanac, 1755

Almanac containing calendar pages with sporadic annotations of measurements and small one-word notes. Winthrop often corrected the almanac's printed chart for the rising and setting of the sun. There are a few handwritten entries including a note in Latin about Winthrop's mother. An unattached sheet of paper folded into the almanac has burial and baptism statistics for Boston and Charleston, and entries about General Braddock's defeat by the French (July 9), a battle between General Johnson and the French and Indians under the Baron de Dieskau (September 8), the execution of two slaves for murdering their master (September 18), and a note that President Holyoke preached the Dudleian lecture (November 25).

Letters from Condy Raguet,

Four letters containing news of Royalist Army officers, including Vice Roy José de la Serna, arriving in Rio de Janeiro after their defeat at the Battle of Ayacucho. Raguet also writes of the public reaction to Bolívar’s victory.

Letter from James Winthrop to William Bentley, 1801 February 12

Two folio-sized leaves containing a one-and-a-half-page handwritten letter from Winthrop to Bentley discussing lunar tables, plans to publish, and a recent gem acquisition. The letter ends, "So Adams is OUT," referring to United States President John Adams's reelection defeat.

Plays and poetry : manuscript, [17--]

Plays and poems, chiefly satires, in support of American independence and patriotic causes.

Emerging From the Shadows : the Life of Captain John (Deserontyou), Circa 1742-1811, Founder of the Bay of Quinte Mohawk Village

This thesis is a biographical examination of the life of Mohawk leader Deserontyou (Captain John) and covers the years from the 1730's up to, and briefly following, 1811. The social, economic and political position of the Mohawk people and Deserontyou's position within the Fort Hunter community prior to the Revolution are addressed first. The Revolutionary War years are then covered with emphasis placed on Deserontyou's military role, the unpleasant conditions at Lachine and the painful reality for the Mohawk people in the aftermath of Britain's defeat. The post-war settlement on the Bay of Quinte is then explored, including the difficulties that Deserontyou experienced with the land, with the British Government, and with his own people. The documents upon which this examination are based come from many primary collections including: The Draper Manuscripts, the Haldimand Papers, the Stuart Papers, Ontario Lands & Forest Survey Records, the Society for the Propagation of the Gospel in Foreign Parts, Episcopal Records, the Bell Papers, the File Collection, the Claus Papers and Indian Affairs Papers.

All Roads Lead to Rome: Background, Context and Legacy of the Treaty on the European Community. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Special Issue 3, August 2012

From the Introduction. The rejection by the French National Assembly of the ill-fated European Defense Community (EDC) Treaty in August 30, 1954, together with the automatic shelving of the equally faulty European Political Community (EPC) proposal, put an end, at least for the time being, to any form of political and military union of the existing Western Europe on a supranational level. The times were difficult in Europe and the international atmosphere was cloudy. The end of the Korean War coincided with the insistence of the Soviets to stick to a policy of détente, leading to the suppression of the Hungarian rebellion. France was facing opposition to her colonial presence in Indochina, as well as in North Africa. But the crisis of Suez prompted the French government to distance itself from the British and the United States. The defeat of the EDC and EPC was not going to be the end of the story and the dream inaugurated by Monnet and Schuman in 1950. It was not long before plans in favor of a European re-launch were taking shape. 1

Iceland’s contested European Policy: The Footprint of the Past - A Small and Insular Society. Jean Monnet Occasional Paper 01/2013

Introduction. Iceland’s domestic politics and foreign affairs are undergoing drastic changes. After an economic crash, violent protests on the streets of Reykjavik for the first time in Iceland’s history contributed to the defeat of the government. The party system has been altered. A turn has been taken towards Europe after the United States left the island, first by closing its military base in 2006 and then by its clear stance not to assist the country in its economic difficulties. The former close relations with the superpower are unlikely ever to be restored. The EU membership application is placing severe constraints on political parties which are split on the issue and has put in jeopardy the unity of the first left majority in the Icelandic parliament, the Althingi. Society is in a state of flux after an unprecedented economic downscaling and the collapse of almost its entire financial sector – which had boomed rapidly beginning in the mid-1990s. The credibility of politicians, the parliament and the media is in ruins. Iceland’s smallness and its location on the geographical map – one could also say the geopolitical map – has had a profound influence on its domestic and foreign affairs. Iceland is closely associated with the other Nordic states and has adopted many of their domestic characteristics, with important exceptions. On the other hand, the country has come under American influence – geographically, it straddles the Mid-Atlantic rift – and has limited its participation in the European project. Its geographical location in the middle of the North Atlantic has led to a notion that the country’s culture is unique and should be protected by all available means. Politicians continue to play the ‘nationalistic uniqueness’ card with considerable success even though the country has been swept by globalization. Rapid modernization (which only really began in the Second World War with British and American occupations) and sudden engagement with the outside world (which only extended to the general public in the last quarter of the twentieth century) are still slowly but steadily making their mark on the country’s foreign policy. The country’s political discourse and foreign policy still bear the hallmark of the past, i.e. of a small and insular society This paper will address the political developments in Iceland since the 2008 economic crash and place it in a historical context. The aim is to understand Iceland’s present foreign policy and, in particular, the highly contested decision by its government in 2009 to apply for membership of the European Union. The paper is divided into five sections in addition to this introduction and the concluding remarks. First, it starts by explaining the importance in Iceland of a political discourse based on the concept of independence which dates back to the historical narrative of the settlement period. This section will also examine Iceland’s close relations with the other Nordic states – despite important differences between it and the others. Second, the paper will analyse the importance of the party system, i.e. the dominance of the centre-right in Icelandic politics, and the changed nature of the system. Third, it examines how Iceland further distinguishes itself from the other Nordic states in many important features. Fourthly, the paper analyses the country’s three main foreign policy priorities in the post-war period, i.e. extensions of the Exclusive Economic Zone, firm defence arrangements with the US and membership of NATO, and the drive for better market access for marine products – including a partial engagement in the European project. Fifthly, the paper examines how the country’s smallness, in terms of its central administrative capacity, has affected its domestic and foreign policy-making. The concluding section summarizes the main findings concerning the political and historical obstacles that the Social Democratic Alliance faces in its hard-fought battle to change the country’s European Policy.

The future of the Franco-German tandem. OSW Commentary No. 83, 2012-07-11

Following the victories of François Hollande in the presidential election and the Socialist Party in the parliamentary election, the existing model of relations between Germany and France as symbolised by the Merkel-Sarkozy duo is undergoing a transformation. Along with the defeat for Sarkozy, who had fostered close cooperation with the German Chancellor, we are witnessing a change in the German-French modus operandi, which was based on making confidential agreements concerning the anti-crisis measures in the eurozone and then presenting ready-made solutions to other EU members (as in the case of the successive versions of the document currently known as the fiscal pact). However, a conflict in bilateral relations, which would mean a total breakdown of the Franco-German engine, is rather unlikely. In fact, François Hollande’s proposals have diminished the appearance of the two states’ exceptional compatibility, and have restored the specific relationship affected by the natural rivalry between two states, who because of their economies’ different orientation have divergent interests. Nevertheless, both sides are destined to reach a compromise, as neither can attain its goals in the face of the other’s opposition. In the long term, Hollande is likely to maintain a common front with Germany in fighting the crisis, while at the same time trying (with his allies from the south of the EU) to limit Berlin’s political and economic superiority.

An Exercise in Legal Honesty: Re-writing the Court of Justice and the Bundesverfassungsgericht. IHS Political Science Series No. 136, February 2014

At a time of crisis – a true state of emergency – both the Court of Justice of the European Union and the German Federal Constitutional Court have failed the rule of law in Europe. Worse still, in their evaluation of the ersatz crisis law, which has been developed in response to financial and sovereign debt crises, both courts have undermined constitutionality throughout Europe. Each jurisdiction has been implicated within the techocratisation of democratic process. Each Court has contributed to an incremental process of the undermining of the political subjectivity of European Citizens. The results are depressing for lawyers who are still attached to notions of constitutionality. Yet, we must also ask whether the Courts could have acted otherwise. Given the original flaws in the construction of Economic and Monetary Union, as well as the politically pre-emptive constraints imposed by global financial markets, each Court might thus be argued to have been forced to suspend immediate legality in a longer term effort to secure the character of the legal jurisdiction as a whole. Crisis can and does defeat the law. Nevertheless, what continues to disturb is the failure of law in Europe to open up any perspective for a return to normal constitutionality post crisis, as well as its apparent inability to give proper and honest consideration to the hardship now being experienced by millions of Europeans within crisis. This contribution accordingly seeks to reimagine each Judgment in a language of legal honesty. Above all, this contribution seeks to suggest a new form of post-national constitutional language; a language which takes as its primary function, proper protection of democratic process against the ever encroaching powers of a post-national executive power. This contribution forms a part of an on-going effort to identify a new basis for the legitimacy of European Law, conducted jointly and severally with Christian Joerges, University of Bremen and Hertie School of Government, Berlin. Differences do remain in our theoretical positions; hence this individual essay. Nevertheless, the congruence between pluralist and conflict of law approaches to the topic are also readily apparent. See, for example, Everson & Joerges (2013).

The EU and its Counter-Terrorism Policies after the Paris Attacks. Liberty and Security in Europe No. 84, 27 November 2015

This paper examines the EU’s counter-terrorism policies responding to the Paris attacks of 13 November 2015. It argues that these events call for a re-think of the current information-sharing and preventive-justice model guiding the EU’s counter-terrorism tools, along with security agencies such as Europol and Eurojust. Priority should be given to independently evaluating ‘what has worked’ and ‘what has not’ when it comes to police and criminal justice cooperation in the Union. Current EU counter-terrorism policies face two challenges: one is related to their efficiency and other concerns their legality. ‘More data’ without the necessary human resources, more effective cross-border operational cooperation and more trust between the law enforcement authorities of EU member states is not an efficient policy response. Large-scale surveillance and preventive justice techniques are also incompatible with the legal and judicial standards developed by the Court of Justice of the EU. The EU can bring further added value first, by boosting traditional policing and criminal justice cooperation to fight terrorism; second, by re-directing EU agencies’ competences towards more coordination and support in cross-border operational cooperation and joint investigations, subject to greater accountability checks (Europol and Eurojust +); and third, by improving the use of policy measures following a criminal justice-led cooperation model focused on improving cross-border joint investigations and the use of information that meets the quality standards of ‘evidence’ in criminal judicial proceedings. Any EU and national counter-terrorism policies must not undermine democratic rule of law, fundamental rights or the EU’s founding constitutional principles, such as the free movement of persons and the Schengen system. Otherwise, these policies will defeat their purpose by generating more insecurity, instability, mistrust and legal uncertainty for all.

Georgian drift. The crisis of Georgia's way westwards. OSW POINT OF VIEW 57, 2016-02-22

For several years Georgia has been experiencing processes which may be interpreted as symptoms of a deepening, multidimensional social and political crisis. Reforms have lost momentum, stagnation has set in, and in some areas the situation has begun to revert to the pre-revolution status (including rising crime levels). The Georgian political system has found itself in a serious crisis, while society has become increasingly frustrated and apathetic, mainly because people’s standards of living have been stagnating. This political and social malaise has been breeding Euro-scepticism and disenchantment with the West. A country that had been firmly navigating westwards, Georgia has now started drifting and slipping into malaise. This risks reversing what the country has achieved so far in the internal dimension, increasing instability and triggering a crisis in the pro-Western vector of Tbilisi’s foreign policy. While that may not necessarily mean a turn towards Russia, in the present situation it has been easier for Moscow to pursue its own interests in the region. Should Tbilisi’s pro-Western course become reversed or permanently stagnant, that would entail grave consequences for the country itself and beyond. It would be a defeat for the West and would undermine the European aspirations of countries like Ukraine or Moldova.