Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Collaborative filtering on data streams

Collaborate Filtering is one of the most popular recommendation algorithms. Most Collaborative Filtering algorithms work with a static set of data. This paper introduces a novel approach to providing recommendations using Collaborative Filtering when user rating is received over an incoming data stream. In an incoming stream there are massive amounts of data arriving rapidly making it impossible to save all the records for later analysis. By dynamically building a decision tree for every item as data arrive, the incoming data stream is used effectively although an inevitable trade off between accuracy and amount of memory used is introduced. By adding a simple personalization step using a hierarchy of the items, it is possible to improve the predicted ratings made by each decision tree and generate recommendations in real-time. Empirical studies with the dynamically built decision trees show that the personalization step improves the overall predicted accuracy.

Diagnosis of diabetes mellitus: case of different cutoff values: A data mining approach

Objective: An estimation of cut-off points for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) based on individual risk factors. Methods: A subset of the 1991 Oman National Diabetes Survey is used, including all patients with a 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl (278 subjects) and a control group of 286 subjects. All subjects previously diagnosed as diabetic and all subjects with missing data values were excluded. The data set was analyzed by use of the SPSS Clementine data mining system. Decision Tree Learners (C5 and CART) and a method for mining association rules (the GRI algorithm) are used. The fasting plasma glucose (FPG), age, sex, family history of diabetes and body mass index (BMI) are input risk factors (independent variables), while diabetes onset (the 2h post glucose load >= 200 mg/dl) is the output (dependent variable). All three techniques used were tested by use of crossvalidation (89.8%). Results: Rules produced for diabetes diagnosis are: A- GRI algorithm (1) FPG>=108.9 mg/dl, (2) FPG>=107.1 and age>39.5 years. B- CART decision trees: FPG >=110.7 mg/dl. C- The C5 decision tree learner: (1) FPG>=95.5 and 54, (2) FPG>=106 and 25.2 kg/m2. (3) FPG>=106 and =133 mg/dl. The three techniques produced rules which cover a significant number of cases (82%), with confidence between 74 and 100%. Conclusion: Our approach supports the suggestion that the present cut-off value of fasting plasma glucose (126 mg/dl) for the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus needs revision, and the individual risk factors such as age and BMI should be considered in defining the new cut-off value.

Rule extraction from technology IPOs in the US stock market

Machine learning techniques for prediction and rule extraction from artificial neural network methods are used. The hypothesis that market sentiment and IPO specific attributes are equally responsible for first-day IPO returns in the US stock market is tested. Machine learning methods used are Bayesian classifications, support vector machines, decision tree techniques, rule learners and artificial neural networks. The outcomes of the research are predictions and rules associated With first-day returns of technology IPOs. The hypothesis that first-day returns of technology IPOs are equally determined by IPO specific and market sentiment is rejected. Instead lower yielding IPOs are determined by IPO specific and market sentiment attributes, while higher yielding IPOs are largely dependent on IPO specific attributes.

Project risk management in analytic framework

Risks and uncertainties are part and parcel of any project as projects are planned with many assumptions. Therefore, managing those risks is the key to project success. Although risk is present in all most all projects, large-scale construction projects are most vulnerable. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively posses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. This study introduces an analytical framework for managing risk in projects. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are analyzed, and alternative responses are derived with cost implication for mitigating the identified risks. A decision-making framework is then formulated using decision tree. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative. The responses, which require least cost is selected. The entire methodology has been explained through a case study of an oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in managing projects has been demonstrated. © INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING.

An illustration of variable precision rough sets model:an analysis of the findings of the UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.

A computational model of prosody for Yorùbá text-to-speech synthesis

This work examines prosody modelling for the Standard Yorùbá (SY) language in the context of computer text-to-speech synthesis applications. The thesis of this research is that it is possible to develop a practical prosody model by using appropriate computational tools and techniques which combines acoustic data with an encoding of the phonological and phonetic knowledge provided by experts. Our prosody model is conceptualised around a modular holistic framework. The framework is implemented using the Relational Tree (R-Tree) techniques (Ehrich and Foith, 1976). R-Tree is a sophisticated data structure that provides a multi-dimensional description of a waveform. A Skeletal Tree (S-Tree) is first generated using algorithms based on the tone phonological rules of SY. Subsequent steps update the S-Tree by computing the numerical values of the prosody dimensions. To implement the intonation dimension, fuzzy control rules where developed based on data from native speakers of Yorùbá. The Classification And Regression Tree (CART) and the Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT) techniques were tested in modelling the duration dimension. The FDT was selected based on its better performance. An important feature of our R-Tree framework is its flexibility in that it facilitates the independent implementation of the different dimensions of prosody, i.e. duration and intonation, using different techniques and their subsequent integration. Our approach provides us with a flexible and extendible model that can also be used to implement, study and explain the theory behind aspects of the phenomena observed in speech prosody.

Classification and contextual enhancement of remotely sensed data

The aims of the project were twofold: 1) To investigate classification procedures for remotely sensed digital data, in order to develop modifications to existing algorithms and propose novel classification procedures; and 2) To investigate and develop algorithms for contextual enhancement of classified imagery in order to increase classification accuracy. The following classifiers were examined: box, decision tree, minimum distance, maximum likelihood. In addition to these the following algorithms were developed during the course of the research: deviant distance, look up table and an automated decision tree classifier using expert systems technology. Clustering techniques for unsupervised classification were also investigated. Contextual enhancements investigated were: mode filters, small area replacement and Wharton's CONAN algorithm. Additionally methods for noise and edge based declassification and contextual reclassification, non-probabilitic relaxation and relaxation based on Markov chain theory were developed. The advantages of per-field classifiers and Geographical Information Systems were investigated. The conclusions presented suggest suitable combinations of classifier and contextual enhancement, given user accuracy requirements and time constraints. These were then tested for validity using a different data set. A brief examination of the utility of the recommended contextual algorithms for reducing the effects of data noise was also carried out.

Lithological mapping of Northwest Argentina with remote sensing data using tonal, textural and contextual features

Tonal, textural and contextual properties are used in manual photointerpretation of remotely sensed data. This study has used these three attributes to produce a lithological map of semi arid northwest Argentina by semi automatic computer classification procedures of remotely sensed data. Three different types of satellite data were investigated, these were LANDSAT MSS, TM and SIR-A imagery. Supervised classification procedures using tonal features only produced poor classification results. LANDSAT MSS produced classification accuracies in the range of 40 to 60%, while accuracies of 50 to 70% were achieved using LANDSAT TM data. The addition of SIR-A data produced increases in the classification accuracy. The increased classification accuracy of TM over the MSS is because of the better discrimination of geological materials afforded by the middle infra red bands of the TM sensor. The maximum likelihood classifier consistently produced classification accuracies 10 to 15% higher than either the minimum distance to means or decision tree classifier, this improved accuracy was obtained at the cost of greatly increased processing time. A new type of classifier the spectral shape classifier, which is computationally as fast as a minimum distance to means classifier is described. However, the results for this classifier were disappointing, being lower in most cases than the minimum distance or decision tree procedures. The classification results using only tonal features were felt to be unacceptably poor, therefore textural attributes were investigated. Texture is an important attribute used by photogeologists to discriminate lithology. In the case of TM data, texture measures were found to increase the classification accuracy by up to 15%. However, in the case of the LANDSAT MSS data the use of texture measures did not provide any significant increase in the accuracy of classification. For TM data, it was found that second order texture, especially the SGLDM based measures, produced highest classification accuracy. Contextual post processing was found to increase classification accuracy and improve the visual appearance of classified output by removing isolated misclassified pixels which tend to clutter classified images. Simple contextual features, such as mode filters were found to out perform more complex features such as gravitational filter or minimal area replacement methods. Generally the larger the size of the filter, the greater the increase in the accuracy. Production rules were used to build a knowledge based system which used tonal and textural features to identify sedimentary lithologies in each of the two test sites. The knowledge based system was able to identify six out of ten lithologies correctly.

A modular holistic approach to prosody modelling for Standard Yorùbá speech synthesis

This paper presents a novel prosody model in the context of computer text-to-speech synthesis applications for tone languages. We have demonstrated its applicability using the Standard Yorùbá (SY) language. Our approach is motivated by the theory that abstract and realised forms of various prosody dimensions should be modelled within a modular and unified framework [Coleman, J.S., 1994. Polysyllabic words in the YorkTalk synthesis system. In: Keating, P.A. (Ed.), Phonological Structure and Forms: Papers in Laboratory Phonology III, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 293–324]. We have implemented this framework using the Relational Tree (R-Tree) technique. R-Tree is a sophisticated data structure for representing a multi-dimensional waveform in the form of a tree. The underlying assumption of this research is that it is possible to develop a practical prosody model by using appropriate computational tools and techniques which combine acoustic data with an encoding of the phonological and phonetic knowledge provided by experts. To implement the intonation dimension, fuzzy logic based rules were developed using speech data from native speakers of Yorùbá. The Fuzzy Decision Tree (FDT) and the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) techniques were tested in modelling the duration dimension. For practical reasons, we have selected the FDT for implementing the duration dimension of our prosody model. To establish the effectiveness of our prosody model, we have also developed a Stem-ML prosody model for SY. We have performed both quantitative and qualitative evaluations on our implemented prosody models. The results suggest that, although the R-Tree model does not predict the numerical speech prosody data as accurately as the Stem-ML model, it produces synthetic speech prosody with better intelligibility and naturalness. The R-Tree model is particularly suitable for speech prosody modelling for languages with limited language resources and expertise, e.g. African languages. Furthermore, the R-Tree model is easy to implement, interpret and analyse.

Habits and attitudes towards retinoscopy and the relative accuracy of dedicated and combined retinoscopes

The studies presented in this thesis were carried out because of a lack of previous research with respect to (a) the habits and attitudes towards retinoscopy and (b) the relative accuracy of dedicated retinoscopes compared to combined types in which changing the bulb allows use in spot or streak mode. An online British survey received responses from 298 optometrists. Decision tree analyses revealed that optometrists working in multiple practices tended to rely less on retinoscopy than those in the independent sector. Only half of the respondents used dynamic retinoscopy. The majority, however, agreed that retinoscopy was an important test. The University attended also influenced the type of retinoscope used and the use of autorefractors. Combined retinoscopes were used most by the more recently qualified optometrists and few agreed that combined retinoscopes were less accurate. A trial indicated that combined and dedicated retinoscopes were equally accurate. Here, 4 optometrists (2 using spot and 2 using streak retinoscopes) tested one eye of 6 patients using combined and dedicated retinoscopes. This trial also demonstrated the utility of the relatively unknown ’15 degrees of freedom’ rule that exploits replication in factorial ANOVA designs to achieve sufficient statistical power when recruitment is limited. An opportunistic international survey explored the use of retinoscopy by 468 practitioners (134 ophthalmologists, 334 optometrists) attending contact related courses. Decision tree analyses found (a) no differences in the habits of optometrists and ophthalmologists, (b) differences in the reliance on retinoscopy and use of dynamic techniques across the participating countries and (c) some evidence that younger practitioners were using static and dynamic retinoscopy least often. In conclusion, this study has revealed infrequent use of static and dynamic retinoscopy by some optometrists, which may be the only means of determining refractive error and evaluating accommodation in patients with communication difficulties.

Application of Naïve Bayesian sequential analysis to primary care optometry

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of circularity, comorbidity, prevalence and presentation variation on the accuracy of differential diagnoses made in optometric primary care using a modified form of naïve Bayesian sequential analysis. No such investigation has ever been reported before. Data were collected for 1422 cases seen over one year. Positive test outcomes were recorded for case history (ethnicity, age, symptoms and ocular and medical history) and clinical signs in relation to each diagnosis. For this reason only positive likelihood ratios were used for this modified form of Bayesian analysis that was carried out with Laplacian correction and Chi-square filtration. Accuracy was expressed as the percentage of cases for which the diagnoses made by the clinician appeared at the top of a list generated by Bayesian analysis. Preliminary analyses were carried out on 10 diagnoses and 15 test outcomes. Accuracy of 100% was achieved in the absence of presentation variation but dropped by 6% when variation existed. Circularity artificially elevated accuracy by 0.5%. Surprisingly, removal of Chi-square filtering increased accuracy by 0.4%. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy was influenced primarily by prevalence followed by presentation variation and comorbidity. Analysis of 35 diagnoses and 105 test outcomes followed. This explored the use of positive likelihood ratios, derived from the case history, to recommend signs to look for. Accuracy of 72% was achieved when all clinical signs were entered. The drop in accuracy, compared to the preliminary analysis, was attributed to the fact that some diagnoses lacked strong diagnostic signs; the accuracy increased by 1% when only recommended signs were entered. Chi-square filtering improved recommended test selection. Decision tree analysis showed that accuracy again influenced primarily by prevalence, followed by comorbidity and presentation variation. Future work will explore the use of likelihood ratios based on positive and negative test findings prior to considering naïve Bayesian analysis as a form of artificial intelligence in optometric practice.

A Framework for Fast Classification Algorithms

Today, due to globalization of the world the size of data set is increasing, it is necessary to discover the knowledge. The discovery of knowledge can be typically in the form of association rules, classification rules, clustering, discovery of frequent episodes and deviation detection. Fast and accurate classifiers for large databases are an important task in data mining. There is growing evidence that integrating classification and association rules mining, classification approaches based on heuristic, greedy search like decision tree induction. Emerging associative classification algorithms have shown good promises on producing accurate classifiers. In this paper we focus on performance of associative classification and present a parallel model for classifier building. For classifier building some parallel-distributed algorithms have been proposed for decision tree induction but so far no such work has been reported for associative classification.

Subject identification via ECG fiducial-based systems:influence of the type of QT interval correction

Electrocardiography (ECG) has been recently proposed as biometric trait for identification purposes. Intra-individual variations of ECG might affect identification performance. These variations are mainly due to Heart Rate Variability (HRV). In particular, HRV causes changes in the QT intervals along the ECG waveforms. This work is aimed at analysing the influence of seven QT interval correction methods (based on population models) on the performance of ECG-fiducial-based identification systems. In addition, we have also considered the influence of training set size, classifier, classifier ensemble as well as the number of consecutive heartbeats in a majority voting scheme. The ECG signals used in this study were collected from thirty-nine subjects within the Physionet open access database. Public domain software was used for fiducial points detection. Results suggested that QT correction is indeed required to improve the performance. However, there is no clear choice among the seven explored approaches for QT correction (identification rate between 0.97 and 0.99). MultiLayer Perceptron and Support Vector Machine seemed to have better generalization capabilities, in terms of classification performance, with respect to Decision Tree-based classifiers. No such strong influence of the training-set size and the number of consecutive heartbeats has been observed on the majority voting scheme.

Decision–making Support Systems as Personal Intellectual Device of a Decision–maker

The problems of the cognitive development of subject “perception” are discussed in the thesis: from the object being studied and means of action till the single system “subject – modus operandi of subject – object”. Problems of increasing adequacy of models of “live” nature are analyzed. The concept of developing decisionmaking support systems as expert systems to decision-making support systems as personal device of a decisionmaker is discussed. The experience of the development of qualitative prediction on the basis of polyvalent dependences, represented by a decision tree, which realizes the concept of “plural subjective determinism”, is analyzed. The examples of applied systems prediction of ecological-economic and social processes are given. The ways of their development are discussed.