Genome-wide association study for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy reveals association with genetic variation near the GRB2 gene

Aims/hypothesis Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication of diabetes mellitus and can lead to blindness. A genetic component, in addition to traditional risk factors, has been well described although strong genetic factors have not yet been identified. Here, we aimed to identify novel genetic risk factors for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy using a genome-wide association study. Methods Retinopathy was assessed in white Australians with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Genome-wide association analysis was conducted for comparison of cases of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (n = 336) with diabetic controls with no retinopathy (n = 508). Top ranking single nucleotide polymorphisms were typed in a type 2 diabetes replication cohort, a type 1 diabetes cohort and an Indian type 2 cohort. A mouse model of proliferative retinopathy was used to assess differential expression of the nearby candidate gene GRB2 by immunohistochemistry and quantitative western blot. Results The top ranked variant was rs3805931 with p = 2.66 × 10−7, but no association was found in the replication cohort. Only rs9896052 (p = 6.55 × 10−5) was associated with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in both the type 2 (p = 0.035) and the type 1 (p = 0.041) replication cohorts, as well as in the Indian cohort (p = 0.016). The study-wide meta-analysis reached genome-wide significance (p = 4.15 × 10−8). The GRB2 gene is located downstream of this variant and a mouse model of retinopathy showed increased GRB2 expression in the retina. Conclusions/interpretation Genetic variation near GRB2 on chromosome 17q25.1 is associated with sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy. Several genes in this region are promising candidates and in particular GRB2 is upregulated during retinal stress and neovascularisation.

Foot morphological difference between habitually shod and unshod runners

Foot morphology and function has received increasing attention from both biomechanics researchers and footwear manufacturers. In this study, 168 habitually unshod runners (90 males whose age, weight & height were 23 +/- 2.4years, 66 +/- 7.1kg & 1.68 +/- 0.13m and 78 females whose age, weight & height were 22 +/- 1.8years, 55 +/- 4.7kg & 1.6 +/- 0.11m) (Indians) and 196 shod runners (130 males whose age, weight & height were 24 +/- 2.6years, 66 +/- 8.2kg & 1.72 +/- 0.18m and 66 females whose age, weight & height were 23 +/- 1.5years, 54 +/- 5.6kg & 1.62 +/- 0.15m)(Chinese) participated in a foot scanning test using the easy-foot-scan (a three-dimensional foot scanning system) to obtain 3D foot surface data and 2D footprint imaging. Foot length, foot width, hallux angle and minimal distance from hallux to second toe were calculated to analyze foot morphological differences. This study found that significant differences exist between groups (shod Chinese and unshod Indians) for foot length (female p = 0.001), width (female p = 0.001), hallux angle (male and female p = 0.001) and the minimal distance (male and female p = 0.001) from hallux to second toe. This study suggests that significant differences in morphology between different ethnicities could be considered for future investigation of locomotion biomechanics characteristics between ethnicities and inform last shape and design so as to reduce injury risks and poor performance from mal-fit shoes.

Mechanical analysis of foot plantar fascia during normal walking condition

Foot plantar fascia is an important foot tissue in stabilizing the longitudinal arch of human foot. Direct measurement to monitor the mechanical situation of plantar fascia at human locomotion is difficult. The purpose of this study was to construct a three-dimensional finite element model of the foot to calculate the internal stress/strain value of plantar fascia during different stage of gait. The simulated stress distribution of plantar fascia was the lowest at heel-strike, which concentrated on the medial side of calcaneal tubercle. The peak stress of plantar fascia was appeared at push-off, and the value is more than 5 times of the heel-strike position. Current FE model was able to explore the plantar fascia tension trend at the main sub-phases of foot. More detailed fascia model and intrinsic muscle forces could be developed in the further study.

Improving the outcomes of foot and ankle surgery. Professional impact of the Australasian College of Podiatric Surgeons' audit tool

Background Surgery is an example of expanded practice scope that enhances podiatry and incorporates inter-professional collaboration. By 2050 demand for foot and ankle procedures is predicted to rise nationally by 61.9%. Performance management of this increase motivated the development of an online audit tool. Developed in collaboration with the Australasian College of Podiatric Surgeons (ACPS), the ACPS audit tool provides real-time data capture and reporting. It is the first audit tool designed in Australia to support and improve the outcomes of foot and ankle surgery. Methods Audit activity in general, orthopaedic, plastic and podiatric surgery was examined using a case study design. Audit participation enablers and barriers were explored. Case study results guided a Delphi survey of international experts experienced or associated with foot and ankle surgery. Delphi survey-derived consensus informed modification of a generic data set from the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS). Based on the Delphi survey findings the ACPS online audit tool was developed and piloted. Reliability and validity of data entry and usability of this new tool was then assessed with an online survey. Results The case study found surgeon attitudes and behaviours positively impacted audit participation, and also indicated that audit data should be: (1) available in real time, (2) identify practice change, (3) applicable for safety and quality management, and; (4) useful for peer review discussion. The Delphi process established consensus on audit variables to be captured, including the modified RACS generic data set. 382 cases of foot and ankle surgery were captured across 3 months using the new tool. Data entry was found to be valid and reliable. Real-time outcome reporting and practice change identification impacted positively on safety and quality management and assisted peer review discussion. An online survey showed high levels of usability. Conclusions Surgeon contribution to audit tool development resulted in 100% audit participation. The data from the ACPS audit tool supported the ACPS submission to the Medical Services Advisory Committee to list podiatric surgery under Medicare, an outcome noted by the Federal Minister of Health.

Genetic analysis of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype A of Indian origin and detection of positive selection and recombination in leader protease- and capsid-coding regions

The leader protease (L-pro) and capsid-coding sequences (P1) constitute approximately 3 kb of the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). We studied the phylogenetic relationship of 46 FMDV serotype A isolates of Indian origin collected during the period 1968-2005 and also eight vaccine strains using the neighbour-joining tree and Bayesian tree methods. The viruses were categorized under three major groups - Asian, Euro-South American and European. The Indian isolates formed a distinct genetic group among the Asian isolates. The Indian isolates were further classified into different genetic subgroups (<5% divergence). Post-1995 isolates were divided into two subgroups while a few isolates which originated in the year 2005 from Andhra Pradesh formed a separate group. These isolates were closely related to the isolates of the 1970s. The FMDV isolates seem to undergo reverse mutation or onvergent evolution wherein sequences identical to the ancestors are present in the isolates in circulation. The eight vaccine strains included in the study were not related to each other and belonged to different genetic groups. Recombination was detected in the L-pro region in one isolate (A IND 20/82) and in the VP1 coding 1D region in another isolate (A RAJ 21/96). Positive selection was identified at aa positions 23 in the L-pro (P<0.05; 0.046*) and at aa 171 in the capsid protein VP1 (P<0.01; 0.003**).

Retinal photography screening programs to prevent vision loss from diabetic retinopathy in rural and urban Australia: A review

Purpose This review assessed the effectiveness of diabetic retinopathy (DR) screening programs, using retinal photography in Australian urban and rural settings, and considered implications for public health strategy and policy. Methods An electronic search of MEDLINE, PubMed, and Embase for studies published between 1 January 1996 and the 30 June 2013 was undertaken. Key search terms were “diabetic retinopathy,” “screening,” “retinal photography” and “Australia.” Results Twelve peer-reviewed publications were identified. The 14 DR screening programs identified from the 12 publications were successfully undertaken in urban, rural and remote communities across Australia. Locations included a pathology collection center, and Indigenous primary health care and Aboriginal community controlled organizations. Each intervention using retinal photography was highly effective at increasing the number of people who underwent screening for DR. The review identified that prior to commencement of the screening programs a median of 48% (range 16–85%) of those screened had not undergone a retinal examination within the recommended time frame (every year for Indigenous people and every 2 years for non-Indigenous people in Australia). A median of 16% (range 0–45%) of study participants had evidence of DR. Conclusions This review has shown there have been many pilot and demonstration projects in rural and urban Australia that confirm the effectiveness of retinal photography-based screening for DR

Familial aggregation of type 1 diabetes and diabetic nephropathy in Finland

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a common, multifactorial disease with strong familial clustering. In Finland, the incidence of T1D among children aged 14 years or under is the highest in the world. The increase in incidence has been approximately 2.4% per year. Although most new T1D cases are sporadic the first-degree relatives are at an increased risk of developing the same disease. This study was designed to examine the familial aggregation of T1D and one of its serious complications, diabetic nephropathy (DN). More specifically the study aimed (1) to determine the concordance rates of T1D in monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins and to estimate the relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors to the variability in liability to T1D as well as to study the age at onset of diabetes in twins; (2) to obtain long-term empirical estimates of the risk of T1D among siblings of T1D patients and the factors related to this risk, especially the effect of age at onset of diabetes in the proband and the birth cohort effect; (3) to establish if DN is aggregating in a Finnish population-based cohort of families with multiple cases of T1D, and to assess its magnitude and particularly to find out whether the risk of DN in siblings is varying according to the severity of DN in the proband and/or the age at onset of T1D: (4) to assess the recurrence risk of T1D in the offspring of a Finnish population-based cohort of patients with childhood onset T1D, and to investigate potential sex-related effects in the transmission of T1D from the diabetic parents to their offspring as well as to study whether there is a temporal trend in the incidence. The study population comprised of the Finnish Young Twin Cohort (22,650 twin pairs), a population-based cohort of patients with T1D diagnosed at the age of 17 years or earlier between 1965 and 1979 (n=5,144) and all their siblings (n=10,168) and offspring (n=5,291). A polygenic, multifactorial liability model was fitted to the twin data. Kaplan-Meier analyses were used to provide the cumulative incidence for the development of T1D and DN. Cox s proportional hazards models were fitted to the data. Poisson regression analysis was used to evaluate temporal trends in incidence. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) between the first-degree relatives of T1D patients and background population were determined. The twin study showed that the vast majority of affected MZ twin pairs remained discordant. Pairwise concordance for T1D was 27.3% in MZ and 3.8% in DZ twins. The probandwise concordance estimates were 42.9% and 7.4%, respectively. The model with additive genetic and individual environmental effects was the best-fitting liability model to T1D, with 88% of the phenotypic variance due to genetic factors. The second paper showed that the 50-year cumulative incidence of T1D in the siblings of diabetic probands was 6.9%. A young age at diagnosis in the probands considerably increased the risk. If the proband was diagnosed at the age of 0-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15 or more, the corresponding 40-year cumulative risks were 13.2%, 7.8%, 4.7% and 3.4%. The cumulative incidence increased with increasing birth year. However, SIR among children aged 14 years or under was approximately 12 throughout the follow-up. The third paper showed that diabetic siblings of the probands with nephropathy had a 2.3 times higher risk of DN compared with siblings of probands free of nephropathy. The presence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) in the proband increases the risk three-fold for diabetic siblings. Being diagnosed with diabetes during puberty (10-14) or a few years before (5-9) increased the susceptibility for DN in the siblings. The fourth paper revealed that of the offspring of male probands, 7.8% were affected by the age of 20 compared with 5.3% of the offspring of female probands. Offspring of fathers with T1D have 1.7 times greater risk to be affected with T1D than the offspring of mothers with T1D. The excess risk in the offspring of male fathers manifested itself through the higher risk the younger the father was when diagnosed with T1D. Young age at onset of diabetes in fathers increased the risk of T1D greatly in the offspring, but no such pattern was seen in the offspring of diabetic mothers. The SIR among offspring aged 14 years or under remained fairly constant throughout the follow-up, approximately 10. The present study has provided new knowledge on T1D recurrence risk in the first-degree relatives and the risk factors modifying the risk. Twin data demonstrated high genetic liability for T1D and increased heritability. The vast majority of affected MZ twin pairs, however, remain discordant for T1D. This study confirmed the drastic impact of the young age at onset of diabetes in the probands on the increased risk of T1D in the first-degree relatives. The only exception was the absence of this pattern in the offspring of T1D mothers. Both the sibling and the offspring recurrence risk studies revealed dynamic changes in the cumulative incidence of T1D in the first-degree relatives. SIRs among the first-degree relatives of T1D patients seems to remain fairly constant. The study demonstrates that the penetrance of the susceptibility genes for T1D may be low, although strongly influenced by the environmental factors. Presence of familial aggregation of DN was confirmed for the first time in a population-based study. Although the majority of the sibling pairs with T1D were discordant for DN, its presence in one sibling doubles and presence of ESRD triples the risk of DN in the other diabetic sibling. An encouraging observation was that although the proportion of children to be diagnosed with T1D at the age of 4 or under is increasing, they seem to have a decreased risk of DN or at least delayed onset.

Inpatient hospital care and its costs among type 1 diabetic patients in Finland : a nationwide longitudinal study

Background. In Finland, the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is the highest in the world, and it continues to increase steadily. No effective preventative interventions exist either for individuals at high risk or for the population as a whole. In addition to problems with daily lifelong insulin replacement therapy, T1DM patients with long-lasting disease suffer from various diabetes related complications. The complications can lead to severe impairments and reductions in functional capacity and quality of life and in the worst case they can be fatal. Longitudinal studies on the costs of T1DM are extremely rare, especially in Finland. Typically, in these studies, distinctions between the various types of diabetes have not been made, and costs have not been calculated separately for the sexes. Aims. The aim of this study was to describe inpatient hospital care and costs of inpatient care in a cohort of 5,166 T1DM patients by sex during 1973-1998 in Finland. Inpatient care and costs of care due to T1DM without complications, due to T1DM with complications and due to other causes were calculated separately. Material and Methods. The study population consisted of all Finnish T1DM patients diagnosed before the age of 18 years between January 1st in 1965 and December 31st in 1979 and derived from the Finnish population based T1DM register (N=5,120 in 1979 and N=4,701 in 1997). Data on hospitalisations were obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. Results. In the early stages of T1DM, the majority of the use of inpatient care was due to the treatment of T1DM without complications. There were enormous increases in the use of inpatient care for certain complications when T1DM lasted longer (from 9.5 years to 16.5 years). For women, the yearly number of bed-days for renal complications increased 4.8-fold, for peripheral vascular disease 4.3-fold and for ophthalmic complications 2.5-fold. For men, the corresponding increases were as follows: 5-fold, 6.9-fold and 2.5-fold. The yearly bed-days for glaucoma increased 8-fold, nephropathy 7-fold and microangiopathy 6-fold in the total population. During these 7 years, the yearly numbers of bed-days for T1DM without complications dropped dramatically. The length of stay in inpatient care decreased notably, but hospital visits became more frequent when the length of duration of T1DM increased from 9.5 years to 16.5 years. The costs of treatments due to complications increased when T1DM lasted longer. Costs due to inpatient care of complications in the cohort 2.5-folded as duration of T1DM increased from 9.5 years to 16.5 years, while the total costs of inpatient care in the cohort dropped by 22% due to an 80% decrease in the costs of care of T1DM without complications. Treating complications of female patients was more expensive than treating complications of men when T1DM had lasted 9.5 years; the mean annual costs for inpatient care of a female diabetic (any cause) were 1,642 , and the yearly costs of care of complications were 237 . The corresponding yearly mean costs for a male patient were 1,198 and 167 . Treating complications of female patients was more expensive than that of male patients also when the duration of diabetes was 16.5 years, although the difference in average annual costs between sexes was somewhat smaller. Conclusions. In the early phases of T1DM, the treatment of T1DM without complications causes a considerable amount of hospital bed-days. The use of inpatient care due to complications of T1DM strongly increases with ageing of patients. The economic burden of inpatient care of T1DM is substantial.

Statistical analysis of the associations of hereditary factors with the risk of Type 1 diabetes and Diabetic Nephropathy based on the familial data collected through ascertaiment from population-based registers

In genetic epidemiology, population-based disease registries are commonly used to collect genotype or other risk factor information concerning affected subjects and their relatives. This work presents two new approaches for the statistical inference of ascertained data: a conditional and full likelihood approaches for the disease with variable age at onset phenotype using familial data obtained from population-based registry of incident cases. The aim is to obtain statistically reliable estimates of the general population parameters. The statistical analysis of familial data with variable age at onset becomes more complicated when some of the study subjects are non-susceptible, that is to say these subjects never get the disease. A statistical model for a variable age at onset with long-term survivors is proposed for studies of familial aggregation, using latent variable approach, as well as for prospective studies of genetic association studies with candidate genes. In addition, we explore the possibility of a genetic explanation of the observed increase in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes (T1D) in Finland in recent decades and the hypothesis of non-Mendelian transmission of T1D associated genes. Both classical and Bayesian statistical inference were used in the modelling and estimation. Despite the fact that this work contains five studies with different statistical models, they all concern data obtained from nationwide registries of T1D and genetics of T1D. In the analyses of T1D data, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility alleles was not observed. In addition, non-Mendelian transmission of T1D susceptibility genes did not make a plausible explanation for the increase in T1D incidence in Finland. Instead, the Human Leucocyte Antigen associations with T1D were confirmed in the population-based analysis, which combines T1D registry information, reference sample of healthy subjects and birth cohort information of the Finnish population. Finally, a substantial familial variation in the susceptibility of T1D nephropathy was observed. The presented studies show the benefits of sophisticated statistical modelling to explore risk factors for complex diseases.

Podocyte molecules in the pancreas and lymphoid tissues and their association to autoimmunity of diabetes

Type 1 diabetes is a disease where the insulin-producing beta cells of the pancreas are destroyed by an autoimmune mechanism. The incidence of type 1 diabetes, as well as the incidence of the diabetic kidney complication, diabetic nephropathy, are increasing worldwide. Nephrin is a crucial molecule for the filtration function of the kidney. It localises in the podocyte foot processes partially forming the interpodocyte final sieve of the filtration barrier, the slit diaphragm. The expression of nephrin is altered in diabetic nephropathy. Recently, nephrin was found from the beta cells of the pancreas as well, which makes this molecule interesting in the context of type 1 diabetes and especially in diabetic nephropathy. In this thesis work, the expression of other podocyte molecules in the beta cells of the pancreas, in addition to nephrin, were deciphered. It was also hypothesised that patients with type 1 diabetes may develop autoantibodies against novel beta cell molecules comparably to the formation of autoantibodies to GAD, IA-2 and insulin. The possible association of such novel autoantibodies with the pathogenesis of diabetic nephropathy was also assessed. Furthermore, expression of nephrin in lymphoid tissues has been suggested, and this issue was more thoroughly deciphered here. The expression of nephrin in the human lymphoid tissues, and a set of podocyte molecules in the human, mouse and rat pancreas at the gene and protein level were studied by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) -based methods and immunochemical methods. To detect autoantibodies to novel beta cell molecules, specific radioimmunoprecipitation assays were developed. These assays were used to screen a follow-up material of 66 patients with type 1 diabetes and a patient material of 150 diabetic patients with signs of diabetic nephropathy. Nephrin expression was detected in the lymphoid follicle germinal centres, specifically in the follicular dendritic cells. In addition to the previously reported expression of nephrin in the pancreas, expression of the podocyte molecules, densin, filtrin, FAT and alpha-actinin-4 were detected in the beta cells. Circulating antibodies to nephrin, densin and filtrin were discovered in a subset of patients with type 1 diabetes. However, no association of these autoantibodies with the pathogenesis of diabetic nephropathy was detected. In conclusion, the expression of five podocyte molecules in the beta cells of the pancreas suggests some molecular similarities between the two cell types. The novel autoantibodies against shared molecules of the kidney podocytes and the pancreatic beta cells appear to be part of the common autoimmune mechanism in patients with type 1 diabetes. No data suggested that the autoantibodies would be active participants of the kidney injury detected in diabetic nephropathy.

Small nerve fiber quantification in the diagnosis of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy: Comparing corneal confocal microscopy with intraepidermal nerve fiber density

OBJECTIVE Quantitative assessment of small fiber damage is key to the early diagnosis and assessment of progression or regression of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy (DSPN). Intraepidermal nerve fiber density (IENFD) is the current gold standard, but corneal confocal microscopy (CCM), an in vivo ophthalmic imaging modality, has the potential to be a noninvasive and objective image biomarker for identifying small fiber damage. The purpose of this study was to determine the diagnostic performance of CCM and IENFD by using the current guidelines as the reference standard. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Eighty-nine subjects (26 control subjects and 63 patients with type 1 diabetes), with and without DSPN, underwent a detailed assessment of neuropathy, including CCM and skin biopsy. RESULTS Manual and automated corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD) (P < 0.0001), branch density (CNBD) (P < 0.0001) and length (CNFL) (P < 0.0001), and IENFD (P < 0.001) were significantly reduced in patients with diabetes with DSPN compared with control subjects. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for identifying DSPN was 0.82 for manual CNFD, 0.80 for automated CNFD, and 0.66 for IENFD, which did not differ significantly (P = 0.14). CONCLUSIONS This study shows comparable diagnostic efficiency between CCM and IENFD, providing further support for the clinical utility of CCM as a surrogate end point for DSPN.

The inferior whorl for detecting diabetic peripheral neuropathy using corneal confocal microscopy

PURPOSE: In vivo corneal confocal microscopy (CCM) is increasingly used as a surrogate endpoint in studies of diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN). However, it is not clear whether imaging the central cornea provides optimal diagnostic utility for DPN. Therefore, we compared nerve morphology in the central cornea and the inferior whorl, a more distal and densely innervated area located inferior and nasal to the central cornea. METHODS: A total of 53 subjects with type 1/type 2 diabetes and 15 age-matched control subjects underwent detailed assessment of neuropathic symptoms (NPS), deficits (neuropathy disability score [NDS]), quantitative sensory testing (vibration perception threshold [VPT], cold and warm threshold [CT/WT], and cold- and heat-induced pain [CIP/HIP]), and electrophysiology (sural and peroneal nerve conduction velocity [SSNCV/PMNCV], and sural and peroneal nerve amplitude [SSNA/PMNA]) to diagnose patients with (DPN+) and without (DPN-) neuropathy. Corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD) and length (CNFL) in the central cornea, and inferior whorl length (IWL) were quantified. RESULTS: Comparing control subjects to DPN- and DPN+ patients, there was a significant increase in NDS (0 vs. 2.6 ± 2.3 vs. 3.3 ± 2.7, P < 0.01), VPT (V; 5.4 ± 3.0 vs. 10.6 ± 10.3 vs. 17.7 ± 11.8, P < 0.01), WT (°C; 37.7 ± 3.5 vs. 39.1 ± 5.1 vs. 41.7 ± 4.7, P < 0.05), and a significant decrease in SSNCV (m/s; 50.2 ± 5.4 vs. 48.4 ± 5.0 vs. 39.5 ± 10.6, P < 0.05), CNFD (fibers/mm2; 37.8 ± 4.9 vs. 29.7 ± 7.7 vs. 27.1 ± 9.9, P < 0.01), CNFL (mm/mm2; 27.5 ± 3.6 vs. 24.4 ± 7.8 vs. 20.7 ± 7.1, P < 0.01), and IWL (mm/mm2; 35.1 ± 6.5 vs. 26.2 ± 10.5 vs. 23.6 ± 11.4, P < 0.05). For the diagnosis of DPN, CNFD, CNFL, and IWL achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75, 0.74, and 0.70, respectively, and a combination of IWL-CNFD achieved an AUC of 0.76. CONCLUSIONS: The parameters of CNFD, CNFL, and IWL have a comparable ability to diagnose patients with DPN. However, IWL detects an abnormality even in patients without DPN. Combining IWL with CNFD may improve the diagnostic performance of CCM.

Estimating Resource Requirements to Staff a Response to a Medium to Large Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Australia

A recent report to the Australian Government identified concerns relating to Australia's capacity to respond to a medium to large outbreak of FMD. To assess the resources required, the AusSpread disease simulation model was used to develop a plausible outbreak scenario that included 62 infected premises in five different states at the time of detection, 28 days after the disease entered the first property in Victoria. Movements of infected animals and/or contaminated product/equipment led to smaller outbreaks in NSW, Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. With unlimited staff resources, the outbreak was eradicated in 63 days with 54 infected premises and a 98% chance of eradication within 3 months. This unconstrained response was estimated to involve 2724 personnel. Unlimited personnel was considered unrealistic, and therefore, the course of the outbreak was modelled using three levels of staffing and the probability of achieving eradication within 3 or 6 months of introduction determined. Under the baseline staffing level, there was only a 16% probability that the outbreak would be eradicated within 3 months, and a 60% probability of eradication in 6 months. Deployment of an additional 60 personnel in the first 3 weeks of the response increased the likelihood of eradication in 3 months to 68%, and 100% in 6 months. Deployment of further personnel incrementally increased the likelihood of timely eradication and decreased the duration and size of the outbreak. Targeted use of vaccination in high-risk areas coupled with the baseline personnel resources increased the probability of eradication in 3 months to 74% and to 100% in 6 months. This required 25 vaccination teams commencing 12 days into the control program increasing to 50 vaccination teams 3 weeks later. Deploying an equal number of additional personnel to surveillance and infected premises operations was equally effective in reducing the outbreak size and duration.

The association of chronic kidney disease and dialysis treatment with foot ulceration and major amputation

Objective The objective of this study was to investigate the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 4-5 and dialysis treatment on incidence of foot ulceration and major lower extremity amputation in comparison to CKD stage 3. Methods In this retrospective study, all individuals who visited our hospital between 2006 and 2012 because of CKD stages 3 to 5 or dialysis treatment were included. Medical records were reviewed for incidence of foot ulceration and major amputation. The time from CKD 3, CKD 4-5, and dialysis treatment until first foot ulceration and first major lower extremity amputation was calculated and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. Diabetes mellitus, peripheral arterial disease, peripheral neuropathy, and foot deformities were included for potential confounding. Results A total of 669 individuals were included: 539 in CKD 3, 540 in CKD 4-5, and 259 in dialysis treatment (individuals could progress from one group to the next). Unadjusted foot ulcer incidence rates per 1000 patients per year were 12 for CKD 3, 47 for CKD 4-5, and 104 for dialysis (P < .001). In multivariate analyses, the hazard ratio for incidence of foot ulceration was 4.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-6.3) in CKD 4-5 and 7.6 (95% CI, 4.8-12.1) in dialysis treatment compared with CKD 3. Hazard ratios for incidence of major amputation were 9.5 (95% CI, 2.1-43.0) and 15 (95% CI, 3.3-71.0), respectively. Conclusions CKD 4-5 and dialysis treatment are independent risk factors for foot ulceration and major amputation compared with CKD 3. Maximum effort is needed in daily clinical practice to prevent foot ulcers and their devastating consequences in all individuals with CKD 4-5 or dialysis treatment.