RNA Virus Evolution: a Cross-scale, Disease Dynamic Perspective

RNA viruses are an important cause of global morbidity and mortality. The rapid evolutionary rates of RNA virus pathogens, caused by high replication rates and error-prone polymerases, can make the pathogens difficult to control. RNA viruses can undergo immune escape within their hosts and develop resistance to the treatment and vaccines we design to fight them. Understanding the spread and evolution of RNA pathogens is essential for reducing human suffering. In this dissertation, I make use of the rapid evolutionary rate of viral pathogens to answer several questions about how RNA viruses spread and evolve. To address each of the questions, I link mathematical techniques for modeling viral population dynamics with phylogenetic and coalescent techniques for analyzing and modeling viral genetic sequences and evolution. The first project uses multi-scale mechanistic modeling to show that decreases in viral substitution rates over the course of an acute infection, combined with the timing of infectious hosts transmitting new infections to susceptible individuals, can account for discrepancies in viral substitution rates in different host populations. The second project combines coalescent models with within-host mathematical models to identify driving evolutionary forces in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The third project compares the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic viral transmission rate variation on viral phylogenies.

Naturally Occurring Resistance-Associated Variants of Hepatitis C Virus Protease Inhibitors in Poor Responders to Pegylated Interferon-Ribavirin

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Influence of adhesive system on quartz fiber post dislocation resistance in endodontically treated teeth

Aim: To evaluate the dislocation resistance of the quartz fiber post/cement/dentin interface after different adhesion strategies. Methods: Forty bovine lower central incisors were selected and prepared with K-files using the step-back technique, and irrigated with 3 mL of distilled water preceding the use of each instrument. Prepared teeth were stored at 37ºC and 100% humidity for 7 days. The roots were prepared and randomized into 4 groups. The quartz fiber post was cemented with an adhesion strategy according to the following groups: GBisCem- BISCEM; GOneStep±C&B- One Step ± C&B; GAllBond±C&B- AllBond3 ± C&B; GAllBondSE±C&B- AllBondSE ±C&B with a quartz fiber post. Cross-sectional root slices of 0.7 mm were produced and stored for 24 h at 37° C before being submitted to push-out bond strength. Results: The mean and standard deviation values of dislocation resistance were GBisCem: 1.12 (± 0.23) MPa, GOneStep±C&B: 0.81 (± 0.31) MPa, GAllBond±C&B: 0.98 (± 0.14) MPa, and GAllBondSE±C&B: 1.57 (± 0.04) MPa. GAllBondSE±C&B showed significantly higher values of dislocation resistance than the other groups. Conclusions: Based on this study design, it may be concluded that adhesion strategies showed different results of quartz post dislocation resistance. Simplified adhesive system with sodium benzene sulphinate incorporation provided superior dislocation resistance.

Primary Antibiotic Resistance to Helicobacter pylori Strains Isolated From Children in Northern Iran: A Single Center Study

Background: Initial resistance to antibiotics is the main reason for the failure of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) eradication in children. Objectives: As we commonly face high antibiotic resistance rates in children, we aimed to determine the susceptibility of H. pylori to common antibiotics. Patients and Methods: In this cross-sectional in vitro study, 169 children younger than 14 years with clinical diagnosis of peptic ulcer underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Biopsy specimens from stomach and duodenum were cultured. In isolated colonies, tests of catalase, urease, and oxidase as well as gram staining were performed. After confirming the colonies as H. pylori, the antibiogram was obtained using disk diffusion method. Results: Culture for H. pylori was positive in 12.3% of the specimens, urease test in 21.3%, serological test in 18.9% and stool antigen test was positive in 21.9%. We could show high specificity but moderate sensitivity of both histological and H. pylori stool antigen tests to detect H. pylori. The overall susceptibility to metronidazole was 42.9%, amoxicillin 95.2%, clarithromycin 85.7%, furazolidone 61.9%, azithromycin 81.0%, and tetracycline 76.2% with the highest resistance to metronidazole and the lowest to clarithromycin. Conclusions: In our region, there is high resistance of H. pylori to some antibiotics including metronidazole and furazolidone among affected children. To reduce the prevalence of this antibiotic resistance, more controlled use of antibiotics should be considered in children.

Association of body composition indices with insulin resistance in European adolescents: the HELENA study

Background: The different body components may contribute to the development of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus. The aim of the present study was to examine the association of fat mass and fat free mass indices with markers of insulin resistance, independently of each other and giving, at the same time, gender-specific information in a wide cohort of European adolescents. Methods: A cross-sectional study in a school setting was conducted in 925 (430 males) adolescents (14.9 ± 1.2 years). Weight, height, anthropometric, bioimpedance and blood parameters were measured. Indices for fat mass and fat free mass, and homeostatic model assessment (HOMA) were calculated. Multiple regression analyses were performed adjusting for several confounders including fat free mass and fat mass when possible. Results: Indices of fat mass were positively associated with HOMA (all p < 0.01) after adjusting for all the confounders including fat free mass indices, in both sexes. Fat free mass indices were associated with HOMA, in both males and females, after adjusting for center, pubertal status, socioeconomic status and cardiorespiratory fitness, but the associations disappear when including fat mass indices in the adjustment's model. Conclusion: Fat mass indices derived from different methods are positively associated with insulin resistance independently of several confounders including fat free mass indices. In addition, the relationship of fat free mass with insulin resistance is influenced by the amount of fat mass in European adolescents. Nevertheless, future studies should focus not only on the role of fat mass, but also on other body components such as fat free mass because its role could vary depending of the level and distribution of fat mass.

Threshold values of sagittal abdominal diameter for the detection of cardio-metabolic risk factors in Northeastern Mexico: a cross-sectional study

Background: The use of sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) has been proposed for screening cardio-metabolic risk factors; however, its accuracy can be influenced by the choice of thresholds values. Aim: To determine the SAD threshold values for cardio-metabolic risk factors in Mexican adults; to assess whether parallel and serial SAD testing can improve waist circumference (WC) sensitivity and specificity; and to analyze the effect of considering SAD along with WC and body mass index (BMI) in detecting cardio-metabolic risk. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted during 2012-2014 in Northeast Mexico (n = 269). Data on anthropometric, clinical, and biochemical measurements were collected. Sex-adjusted receiver-operating characteristic curves (ROC) were obtained using hypertension, dysglycemia, dyslipidemia and insulin resistance as individual outcomes and metabolic syndrome as a composite outcome. Age-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using logistic regression. Results: The threshold value for SAD with acceptable combination of sensitivity and specificity was 24.6 cm in men and 22.5 cm in women. Parallel SAD testing improved WC sensitivity and serial testing improved WC specificity. The co-occurrence of high WC/high SAD increased the risk for insulin resistance by 2.4-fold (95% CI: 1.1-5.3), high BMI/high SAD by 4.3-fold (95% CI: 1.7-11.9) and SAD alone by 2.2-fold (95% CI: 1.2.-4.2). Conclusions: The use of SAD together with traditional obesity indices such as WC and BMI has advantages over using either of these indices alone. SAD may be a powerful screening tool for interventions for high-risk individuals.

Cross-correlations between weather variables in Australia

The information on climate variations is essential for the research of many subjects, such as the performance of buildings and agricultural production. However, recorded meteorological data are often incomplete. There may be a limited number of locations recorded, while the number of recorded climatic variables and the time intervals can also be inadequate. Therefore, the hourly data of key weather parameters as required by many building simulation programmes are typically not readily available. To overcome this gap in measured information, several empirical methods and weather data generators have been developed. They generally employ statistical analysis techniques to model the variations of individual climatic variables, while the possible interactions between different weather parameters are largely ignored. Based on a statistical analysis of 10 years historical hourly climatic data over all capital cities in Australia, this paper reports on the finding of strong correlations between several specific weather variables. It is found that there are strong linear correlations between the hourly variations of global solar irradiation (GSI) and dry bulb temperature (DBT), and between the hourly variations of DBT and relative humidity (RH). With an increase in GSI, DBT would generally increase, while the RH tends to decrease. However, no such a clear correlation can be found between the DBT and atmospheric pressure (P), and between the DBT and wind speed. These findings will be useful for the research and practice in building performance simulation.

The mechanical strength of phosphates under friction-induced cross-linking

Purpose: In the present study, we consider mechanical properties of phosphate glasses under high temperatureinduced and under friction-induced cross-linking, which enhance the modulus of elasticity. Design/methodology/approach: Two nanomechanical properties are evaluated, the first parameter is the modulus of elasticity (E) (or Young's modulus) and the second parameter is the hardness (H). Zinc meta-, pyro - and orthophosphates were recognized as amorphous-colloidal nanoparticles were synthesized under laboratory conditions and showed antiwear properties in engine oil. Findings: Young's modulus of the phosphate glasses formed under high temperature was in the 60-89 GPa range. For phosphate tribofilm formed under friction hardness and the Young's modulus were in the range of 2-10 GPa and 40-215 GPa, respectively. The degree of cross-linking during friction is provided by internal pressure of about 600 MPa and temperature close to 1000°C enhancing mechanical properties by factor of 3 (see Fig 1). Research limitations/implications: The addition of iron or aluminum ions to phosphate glasses under high temperature - and friction-induced amorphization of zinc metaphosphate and pyrophosphate tends to provide more cross-linking and mechanically stronger structures. Iron and aluminum (FeO4 or AlO4 units), incorporated into phosphate structure as network formers, contribute to the anion network bonding by converting the P=O bonds into bridging oxygen. Future work should consider on development of new of materials prepared by solgel processes, eg., zinc (II)-silicic acid. Originality/value: This paper analyses the friction pressure-induced and temperature–induced the two factors lead phosphate tribofilm glasses to chemically advanced glass structures, which may enhance the wear inhibition. Adding the coordinating ions alters the pressure at which cross-linking occurs and increases the antiwear properties of the surface material significantly.

Smoothing a Discrete Hazard Function for the Number of Patients Colonized with Methicillin-Resistance Staphylococcus Aureus in an Intensive Care Unit

A new method for estimating the time to colonization of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus Aureus (MRSA) patients is developed in this paper. The time to colonization of MRSA is modelled using a Bayesian smoothing approach for the hazard function. There are two prior models discussed in this paper: the first difference prior and the second difference prior. The second difference prior model gives smoother estimates of the hazard functions and, when applied to data from an intensive care unit (ICU), clearly shows increasing hazard up to day 13, then a decreasing hazard. The results clearly demonstrate that the hazard is not constant and provide a useful quantification of the effect of length of stay on the risk of MRSA colonization which provides useful insight.