A new adaptive multiple modelling approach for non-linear and non-stationary systems

This paper proposes a novel adaptive multiple modelling algorithm for non-linear and non-stationary systems. This simple modelling paradigm comprises K candidate sub-models which are all linear. With data available in an online fashion, the performance of all candidate sub-models are monitored based on the most recent data window, and M best sub-models are selected from the K candidates. The weight coefficients of the selected sub-model are adapted via the recursive least square (RLS) algorithm, while the coefficients of the remaining sub-models are unchanged. These M model predictions are then optimally combined to produce the multi-model output. We propose to minimise the mean square error based on a recent data window, and apply the sum to one constraint to the combination parameters, leading to a closed-form solution, so that maximal computational efficiency can be achieved. In addition, at each time step, the model prediction is chosen from either the resultant multiple model or the best sub-model, whichever is the best. Simulation results are given in comparison with some typical alternatives, including the linear RLS algorithm and a number of online non-linear approaches, in terms of modelling performance and time consumption.

Fortified food made by the extrusion of a mixture of chickpea, corn and bovine lung controls iron-deficiency anaemia in preschool children

A fortified food that was rich in protein, vitamins and iron made of chickpea, bovine lung and corn was developed with the aim of controlling iron-deficiency anaemia in children from poorer areas. It was tested in Teresina, State of Piaui, Northeastern Brazil, on a population with high anaemia prevalence. Two local daycare units with similar characteristics were selected and the children at one of them received a 30 g pack three times a week, representing a total iron daily intake of 6.96 mg. The other daycare unit was followed as a control. The capillary haemoglobin concentration was determined for the children at both daycare units, at the beginning of the study and after a two-month intervention period. The mean haemoglobin concentration in the test group at the beginning of the intervention was 11.8 g/dL, which increased to 13.1 g/dL at the end of the intervention. In the control group these figures remained practically constant (11.6-11.8 g/dL). These represented a dramatic and significant drop in anaemia prevalence, from 61.5% to 11.5% in the test group, and an insignificant reduction (63.1-57.7%) in the control group. The acceptance of the fortified snack was excellent and no undesirable effects were observed. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Fatty acid composition of intramuscular fat from Nellore steers fed dry or high moisture corn and calcium salts of fatty acids

The purpose of this work was to evaluate the fatty acid composition of the Longissimus muscle from carcasses of Nellore steers fed diets with calcium salts of fatty acids (CSFA) and high moisture corn. Forty eight steers were fed during 70 days four diets containing dry corn (DC), high moisture corn (HM). dry corn plus CSFA (DC-CSFA) or high moisture corn plus CSFA (HM-CSFA). Fatty acid composition of the Longissimus muscle was determined by gas chromatography. Corn type had no effect on the ether extract percentage and in the content of the majority of the fatty acids, although steers fed HMC showed higher levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids and polyunsaturated/saturated ratio. Feeding CSFA increased ether extract percentage but had no effect on total of saturated, unsaturated and saturated: unsaturated ratio. Both high moisture corn and calcium salts of fatty acids increased CIA (cis9, trans11) and total CIA concentrations in intramuscular fat (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Photoluminescence behavior of Eu(3+) ion doped into gamma- and alpha-alumina systems prepared by combustion, ceramic and Pechini methods

Al(2)O(3):Eu(3+)(1%) samples were prepared by combustion, ceramic, and Pechini methods annealed from 400 to 1400 degrees C. XRD patterns indicate that samples heated up to 1000 degrees C present disordered character of activated alumina (gamma-Al(2)O(3)). However, alpha-Al(2)O(3) phase showed high crystallinity and thermostability at 1200-1400 degrees C. The sample characterizations were also carried out by means of infrared spectroscopy (IR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and specific surface areas analysis (BET method). Excitation spectra of Al(2)O(3):Eu(3+) samples present broaden bands attributed to defects of Al(2)O(3) matrices and to LMCT state of O -> Eu(3+), however, the narrow bands are assigned to (7)F(0) -> (5)D(J),(5)H(J) and (5)L(J) transitions of Eu(3+) ion. Emission spectra of samples calcined up to 1000 degrees C show broaden bands for (5)D(0) -> (7)F(J) transitions of Eu(3+) ion suggesting that the rare earth ion is in different symmetry sites showed by inhomogeneous line broadening of bands, confirming the predominance of the gamma-alumina phase. For all samples heated from 1200 to 1400 degrees C the spectra exhibit narrow (5)D(0) -> (7)F(J) transitions of Eu(3+) ion indicating the conversion of gamma to alpha-Al(2)O(3) phases, a high intensity narrow peak around 695 nm assigned to R lines of Cr(3+) ion is shown. Al(2)O(3):Eu(3+) heated up to 1100 degrees C presents an increase in the Omega(2) intensity parameter with the increase of temperatures enhancing the covalent character of metal-donor interaction. The disordered structural systems present the highest values of emission quantum efficiencies (eta). CIE coordinates of Al(2)O(3):Eu(3+) are also discussed. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heat losses and thermal performance of commercial combined solar and pellet heating systems

Various pellet heating systems are marketed in Sweden, some of them in combination with a solar heating system. Several types of pellet heating units are available and can be used for a combined system. This article compares four typical combined solar and pellet heating systems: System 1 and 2 two with a pellet stove, system 3 with a store integrated pellet burner and system 4 with a pellet boiler. The lower efficiency of pellet heaters compared to oil or gas heaters increases the primary energy demand. Consequently heat losses of the various systems have been studied. The systems have been modeled in TRNSYS and simulated with parameters identified from measurements. For almost all systems the flue gas losses are the main heat losses except for system 3 where store heat losses prevail. Relevant are also the heat losses of the burner and the boiler to the ambient. Significant leakage losses are noticed for system 3 and 4. For buildings with an open internal design system 1 is the most efficient solution. Other buildings should preferably apply system 3. The right choice of the system depends also on whether the heater is placed inside or outside of the heated are. A large potential for system optimization exist for all studied systems, which when applied could alter the relative merits of the different system types.

Combined solar and pellet heating systems for single-family houses : How to achieve decreased electricity usage, increased system efficiency and increased solar gains

In Sweden, there are about 0.5 million single-family houses that are heated by electricity alone, and rising electricity costs force the conversion to other heating sources such as heat pumps and wood pellet heating systems. Pellet heating systems for single-family houses are currently a strongly growing market. Future lack of wood fuels is possible even in Sweden, and combining wood pellet heating with solar heating will help to save the bio-fuel resources. The objectives of this thesis are to investigate how the electrically heated single-family houses can be converted to pellet and solar heating systems, and how the annual efficiency and solar gains can be increased in such systems. The possible reduction of CO-emissions by combining pellet heating with solar heating has also been investigated. Systems with pellet stoves (both with and without a water jacket), pellet boilers and solar heating have been simulated. Different system concepts have been compared in order to investigate the most promising solutions. Modifications in system design and control strategies have been carried out in order to increase the system efficiency and the solar gains. Possibilities for increasing the solar gains have been limited to investigation of DHW-units for hot water production and the use of hot water for heating of dishwashers and washing machines via a heat exchanger instead of electricity (heat-fed appliances). Computer models of pellet stoves, boilers, DHW-units and heat-fed appliances have been developed and the parameters for the models have been identified from measurements on real components. The conformity between the models and the measurements has been checked. The systems with wood pellet stoves have been simulated in three different multi-zone buildings, simulated in detail with heat distribution through door openings between the zones. For the other simulations, either a single-zone house model or a load file has been used. Simulations were carried out for Stockholm, Sweden, but for the simulations with heat-fed machines also for Miami, USA. The foremost result of this thesis is the increased understanding of the dynamic operation of combined pellet and solar heating systems for single-family houses. The results show that electricity savings and annual system efficiency is strongly affected by the system design and the control strategy. Large reductions in pellet consumption are possible by combining pellet boilers with solar heating (a reduction larger than the solar gains if the system is properly designed). In addition, large reductions in carbon monoxide emissions are possible. To achieve these reductions it is required that the hot water production and the connection of the radiator circuit is moved to a well insulated, solar heated buffer store so that the boiler can be turned off during the periods when the solar collectors cover the heating demand. The amount of electricity replaced using systems with pellet stoves is very dependant on the house plan, the system design, if internal doors are open or closed and the comfort requirements. Proper system design and control strategies are crucial to obtain high electricity savings and high comfort with pellet stove systems. The investigated technologies for increasing the solar gains (DHW-units and heat-fed appliances) significantly increase the solar gains, but for the heat-fed appliances the market introduction is difficult due to the limited financial savings and the need for a new heat distribution system. The applications closest to market introduction could be for communal laundries and for use in sunny climates where the dominating part of the heat can be covered by solar heating. The DHW-unit is economical but competes with the internal finned-tube heat exchanger which is the totally dominating technology for hot water preparation in solar combisystems for single-family houses.

Annual CO-emissions of combined pellet and solar heating systems

Emissions are an important aspect of a pellet heating system. High carbon monoxide emissions are often caused by unnecessary cycling of the burner when the burner is operated below the lowest combustion power. Combining pellet heating systems with a solar heating system can significantly reduce cycling of the pellet heater and avoid the inefficient summer operation of the pellet heater. The aim of this paper was to study CO-emissions of the different types of systems and to compare the yearly CO-emissions obtained from simulations with the yearly CO-emissions calculated based on the values that are obtained by the standard test methods. The results showed that the yearly CO-emissions obtained from the simulations are significant higher than the yearly CO-emissions calculated based on the standard test methods. It is also shown that for the studied systems the average emissions under these realistic annual conditions were greater than the limit values of two Eco-labels. Furthermore it could be seen that is possible to almost halve the CO-emission if the pellet heater is combined with a solar heating system.

Final report on heat pump developments in WP 4 - MacSheep Deliverable 4.4 : MacSheep -New Materials and Control for a next generation of compact combined Solar and heat pump systems with boosted energetic and exergetic performance

FP7- MacSheep

Tourism and Arctic Observation Systems : exploring the relationships

The Arctic is affected by global environmental change and also by diverse interests from many economic sectors and industries. Over the last decade, various actors have attempted to explore the options for setting up integrated and comprehensive trans-boundary systems for monitoring and observing these impacts. These Arctic Observation Systems (AOS) contribute to the planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of environmental change and responsible social and economic development in the Arctic. The aim of this article is to identify the two-way relationship between AOS and tourism. On the one hand, tourism activities account for diverse changes across a broad spectrum of impact fields. On the other hand, due to its multiple and diverse agents and far-reaching activities, tourism is also well-positioned to collect observational data and participate as an actor in monitoring activities. To accomplish our goals, we provide an inventory of tourism-embedded issues and concerns of interest to AOS from a range of destinations in the circumpolar Arctic region, including Alaska, Arctic Canada, Iceland, Svalbard, the mainland European Arctic and Russia. The article also draws comparisons with the situation in Antarctica. On the basis of a collective analysis provided by members of the International Polar Tourism Research Network from across the polar regions, we conclude that the potential role for tourism in the development and implementation of AOS is significant and has been overlooked.

Corn and soybean meal metabolizable energy with the addition of exogenous enzymes for poultry

Two metabolism assays were carried out to determine corn and soybean meal metabolizable energy when enzymes were added. In the first trial, 35 cockerels per studied feedstuff (corn and soybean meal) were distributed in a completely randomized experimental design with four treatments of seven replicates of one bird each. The evaluated treatments were: ingredient (corn and soybean meal) with no enzyme addition, with the addition of an enzyme complex (xylanase, amylase, protease - XAP), xylanase, or phytase. Precise feeding method was used to determine true metabolizable energy corrected for nitrogen balance (TMEn). The use of enzymes did not result in any differences (p>0.05) in soybean meal TMEn, but phytase improved corn TMEn in 2.3% (p=0.004). In the second trial, 280 seven-day-old broiler chicks were distributed in a completely randomized experimental design with seven treatments of five replicates of eight birds each. Treatments consisted of corn with no enzyme addition or with the addition of amylase, xylanase, phytase, XAP complex, XAP+phytase combination, or xylanase/ pectinase/β-glucanase complex (XPBG). Corn was supplemented with macro and trace minerals. Total excreta collection was used to determine apparent metabolizable energy corrected for nitrogen balance (AMEn). Differences were observed (p=0.08) in AMEn and dry matter metabolizability coefficient (p=0.03). The combination of the XAP complex with phytase promoted a 2.11% increase in corn AMEn values, and the remaining enzymes allowed increased between 0.86% and 1.66%.