Ampliação da capacidade de análise: a produção de sentidos na Política Nacional de Humanização

The article refers to the collective construction performed from the Multicentric Research on Humanization Training of SUS. It is about production and building consensus on different interpretations of the superfamily "expansion of the analysis capability." The methodological approach is related to the creation of analytical reports coming from four sources: Intervention Plans built at the time of training courses offered in three states (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and São Paulo) by the institutional supporters in training.Also, there were questionnaires answered via Form-SUS by graduated supporters after four years of the course closing; data and analysis produced by supporters in focus groups and interviews, conducted as the research final stage in the three states.Thus, considering the inclusive methodological framework not only from the courses, but also the research that evaluated them, the participants (graduates from the training courses) produced data and started to play the active role of researchers/panelists because they got “surprised" by partial analyzes.Therefore, the article discusses the analysis capability of demand required by supporters before their working areas and the relationship of that capability with concepts and elements of Institutional Analysis.It was possible to highlight the inseparability between demands of emergency and the exercise of being next to another person and his/her interests. The conclusion is that the methodology proposed by the course allowed the supporters in training to stimulate and develop a critical capacity on their work.However, it is noticed that the expansion of such analytical capability often remained linked to the supporter, without the contagion of other workers in the territories.It was also possible to see that the course and political framework of PNH could equip the supporters, promoting empowerment from their analysis, which is essential to the interventions performance.

Il Pluralismo tra Democrazia ed Autoritarismo: Il Caso Russo

The research explores the mechanisms in the formation and consolidation of a new regime which combines democratic and authoritarian features; it has emerged as result of democratization processes affecting different world areas in recent years. The study analyses a case of great international significance, post-communist Russia: here internal factors strongly prevail in front of the external variables of democratic imitation and contagion, thus showing to what extent Russia differs from other political contexts. The study intends to examine the strategies used by this regime to solve internal conflicts and become stable in spite of the democratizing pressures coming from outside. Indeed, the literature about political transformations has shown the problems in analyzing these polities together with the need to examine their peculiarities more in depth. In this perspective, the first section focuses on the dynamics of State-building in Russia as a fundamental process in tracing the specific characteristics of the current regime: particularly, it is suggested that the State dimension comes out as crucial in determining the level of political and social pluralism accepted in post-Soviet Russia. This argument is worked out in the second section, which analyses the main mechanisms used by the incumbents to limit and control pluralism within the two arenas of political competition and civil society, from where the major threats to the status quo are supposed to come. The main hypothesis is that the leadership interventions in these spheres during the last ten years have shaped a regime which can be characterized as a new type of authoritarianism: with respect to traditional authoritarian forms a certain degree of political contestation is accepted, visible in the presence of a multiparty system, semi-competitive elections and of the several representatives of civil society. Yet, this diversity is curbed basically in two different ways: from one hand the incumbents provide support to political and social actors who sponsor government politics (see the party of power and pro-Kremlin movements). From the other they use some non coercive forms of control and restriction (in legislation, in political elections) against those actors who promote values and priorities opposed to the official ones.

On The Timing of Default Losses: When and Why?

At the light of what happened in 2010 and 2011, a lot of European countries founded themselves in a difficult position where all the credit rating agencies were downgrading debt states. Problem of solvency and guarantees on the states' bond were perceived as too risky for a Monetary Union as Europe is. Fear of a contagion from Greece as well was threatening the other countries as Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland; while Germany and France asked for a division between risky and riskless bond in order to feel more safe. Our paper gets inspiration by Roch and Uhlig (2011), it refers to the Argentinian case examined by Arellano (2008) and examine possible interventions as monetization or bailout as proposed by Cole and Kehoe (2000). We propose a model in which a state defaults and cannot repay a fraction of the old bond; but contrary to Roch and Uhlig that where considering a one-time cost of default we consider default as an accumulation of losses, perceived as unpaid fractions of the old debts. Our contributions to literature is that default immediately imply that economy faces a bad period and, accumulating losses, government will be worse-off. We studied a function for this accumulation of debt period by period, in order to get an idea of the magnitude of this waste of resources that economy will face when experiences a default. Our thesis is that bailouts just postpone the day of reckoning (Roch, Uhlig); so it's better to default before accumulate a lot of debts. What Europe need now is the introduction of new reforms in a controlled default where the Eurozone will be saved in its whole integrity and a state could fail with the future promise of a resurrection. As experience show us, governments are not interested into reducing debts since there are ECB interventions. That clearly create a distortion between countries in the same monetary union, giving to the states just an illusion about their future debtor position.

Framing Death. La morte in diretta, tra cinema e media digitali

Come dimostrano i sempre più numerosi casi di cronaca riportati dai notiziari, la preoccupazione per la gestione delle immagini di morte si configura come un nodo centrale che coinvolge spettatori, produttori di contenuti e broadcaster, dato che la sua emersione nel panorama mediale in cui siamo immersi è sempre più evidente. Se la letteratura socio-antropologica è generalmente concorde nel ritenere che, rispetto al passato, oggi la morte si manifesti con meno evidenza nella vita comune delle persone, che tendono a rimuovere i segni della contiguità vivendo il lutto in forma privata, essa è però percepita in modo pervasivo perché disseminata nei (e dai) media. L'elaborato, concentrandosi in maniera specifica sulle produzioni audiovisive, e quindi sulla possibilità intrinseca al cinema – e alle sue forme derivate – di registrare un evento in diretta, tenta di mappare alcune dinamiche di produzione e fruizione considerando una particolare manifestazione della morte: quella che viene comunemente indicata come “morte in diretta”. Dopo una prima ricognizione dedicata alla tensione continua tra la spinta a considerare la morte come l'ultimo tabù e le manifestazioni che essa assume all'interno della “necrocultura”, appare chiaro che il paradigma pornografico risulta ormai inefficace a delineare compiutamente le emersioni della morte nei media, soggetta a opacità e interdizioni variabili, e necessita dunque di prospettive analitiche più articolate. Il fulcro dell'analisi è dunque la produzione e il consumo di precisi filoni quali snuff, cannibal e mondo movie e quelle declinazioni del gore che hanno ibridato reale e fittizio: il tentativo è tracciare un percorso che, a partire dal cinema muto, giunga al panorama contemporaneo e alle pratiche di remix rese possibili dai media digitali, toccando episodi controversi come i Video Nasties, le dinamiche di moral panic scatenate dagli snuff film e quelle di contagio derivanti dalla manipolazione e diffusione delle immagini di morte.

Essays on the Empirical Analysis of Economic and Political Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, non-democratic events, like civil wars and coup d'etat, destroy economic development. This study investigates both domestic and spatial effects on the likelihood of civil wars and coup d'etat. To civil wars, an increase of income growth is one of common research conclusions to stop wars. This study adds a concern on ethnic fractionalization. IV-2SLS is applied to overcome causality problem. The findings document that income growth is significant to reduce number and degree of violence in high ethnic fractionalized countries, otherwise they are trade-off. Income growth reduces amount of wars, but increases its violent level, in the countries with few large ethnic groups. Promoting growth should consider ethnic composition. This study also investigates the clustering and contagion of civil wars using spatial panel data models. Onset, incidence and end of civil conflicts spread across the network of neighboring countries while peace, the end of conflicts, diffuse only with the nearest neighbor. There is an evidence of indirect links from neighboring income growth, without too much inequality, to reduce the likelihood of civil wars. To coup d'etat, this study revisits its diffusion for both all types of coups and only successful ones. The results find an existence of both domestic and spatial determinants in different periods. Domestic income growth plays major role to reduce the likelihood of coup before cold war ends, while spatial effects do negative afterward. Results on probability to succeed coup are similar. After cold war ends, international organisations seriously promote democracy with pressure against coup d'etat, and it seems to be effective. In sum, this study indicates the role of domestic ethnic fractionalization and the spread of neighboring effects to the likelihood of non-democratic events in a country. Policy implementation should concern these factors.

Essays on credit rating agencies and the assessment of sovereign risk

Sovereign ratings have only recently regained attention in the academic debate. This seems to be somewhat surprising against the background that their influence is well-known and that rating decisions have often been criticized in the past (as for example during the Asian crisis in the 90s). Sovereign ratings do not only assess the creditworthiness of governments: They are also included in the calculation of ratings for sub-sovereign issuers whereby their rating is usually restricted to the upper bound of the sovereign rating (sovereign ceiling). Earlier studies have also shown that the downgrade of a sovereign often leads to contagion effects on neighbor countries. This study focuses first on misleading incentives in the rating industry before chapter three summarizes the literature on the influence and determinants of sovereign ratings. The fourth chapter explores empirically how ratings respond to changes in sovereign debt across specific country groups. The fifth part focuses on single rating decisions of four selected rating agencies and investigates whether the timing of decisions gives reason for herding behavior. The final chapter presents a reform proposal for the future regulation of the rating industry in light of the aforementioned flaws.rn

An Urn Model for Cascading Failures on a Lattice

A cascading failure is a failure in a system of interconnected parts, in which the breakdown of one element can lead to the subsequent collapse of the others. The aim of this paper is to introduce a simple combinatorial model for the study of cascading failures. In particular, having in mind particle systems and Markov random fields, we take into consideration a network of interacting urns displaced over a lattice. Every urn is Pólya-like and its reinforcement matrix is not only a function of time (time contagion) but also of the behavior of the neighboring urns (spatial contagion), and of a random component, which can represent either simple fate or the impact of exogenous factors. In this way a non-trivial dependence structure among the urns is built, and it is used to study default avalanches over the lattice. Thanks to its flexibility and its interesting probabilistic properties, the given construction may be used to model different phenomena characterized by cascading failures such as power grids and financial networks.

Expressing and Amplifying Positive Emotions Facilitate Goal Attainment in Workplace Interactions

Expressing emotions has social functions; it provides information, affects social interactions, and shapes relationships with others. Expressing positive emotions could be a strategic tool for improving goal attainment during social interactions at work. Such effects have been found in research on social contagion, impression management, and emotion work. However, expressing emotions one does not feel entails the risk of being perceived as inauthentic. This risk may well be worth taking when the emotions felt are negative, as expressing negative emotions usually has negative effects. When experiencing positive emotions, however, expressing them authentically promises benefits, and the advantage of amplifying them is not so obvious. We postulated that expressing, and amplifying, positive emotions would foster goal attainment in social interactions at work, particularly when dealing with superiors. Analyses are based on 494 interactions involving the pursuit of a goal by 113 employes. Multilevel analyses, including polynomial analyses, show that authentic display of positive emotions supported goal attainment throughout. However, amplifying felt positive emotions promoted goal attainment only in interactions with superiors, but not with colleagues. Results are discussed with regard to the importance of hierarchy for detecting, and interpreting, signs of strategic display of positive emotions.

Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland

SUMMARY Campylobacteriosis has been the most common food-associated notifiable infectious disease in Switzerland since 1995. Contact with and ingestion of raw or undercooked broilers are considered the dominant risk factors for infection. In this study, we investigated the temporal relationship between the disease incidence in humans and the prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers in Switzerland from 2008 to 2012. We use a time-series approach to describe the pattern of the disease by incorporating seasonal effects and autocorrelation. The analysis shows that prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers, with a 2-week lag, has a significant impact on disease incidence in humans. Therefore Campylobacter cases in humans can be partly explained by contagion through broiler meat. We also found a strong autoregressive effect in human illness, and a significant increase of illness during Christmas and New Year's holidays. In a final analysis, we corrected for the sampling error of prevalence in broilers and the results gave similar conclusions.

MEDICAL CARE UTILIZATION IN TIME AMONG ELDERLY MEDICARE ENROLLEES IN AN HMO

Investigation into the medical care utilization of elderly Medicare enrollees in an HMO (Kaiser - Portland, Oregon): The specific research topics are: (1) The utilization of medical care by selected determinants such as: place of service, type of service, type of appointment, physician status, physician specialty and number of associated morbidities. (2) The attended prevalence of 3 chronic diseases: hypertension, diabetes and arthritis in addition to pneumonias as an example of acute diseases. The selection of these examples was based on their importance in morbidity/or mortality results among the elderly. The share of these diseases in outpatient and inpatient contacts was examined as an example of the relation between morbidity and medical care utilization. (3) The tendency of individual utilization patterns to persist in subsequent time periods. The concept of contagion or proneness was studied in a period of 2 years. Fitting the negative binomial and the Poisson distributions was applied to the utilization in the 2nd year conditional on that in the 1st year as regards outpatient and inpatient contacts.^ The present research is based on a longitudinal study of 20% random sample of elderly Medicare enrollees. The sample size is 1683 individuals during the period from August 1980-December 1982.^ The results of the research were: (1) The distribution of contacts by selected determinants did not reveal a consistent pattern between sexes and age groups. (2) The attended prevalence of hypertension and arthritis showed excess prevalence among females. For diabetes and pneumonias no female excess was noticed. Consistent increased prevalence with increasing age was not detected.^ There were important findings pertaining to the relatively big share of the combined 3 chronic diseases in utilization. They accounted for 20% of male outpatient contacts vs. 25% of female outpatients. For inpatient contacts, they consumed 20% in case of males vs. 24% in case of females. (3) Finding that the negative binomial distribution fit the utilization experience supported the research hypothesis concerning the concept of contagion in utilization. This important finding can be helpful in estimating liability functions needed for forecasting future utilization according to previous experience. Such information has its relevance to organization, administration and planning for medical care in general. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

Granger causality and systemic risk

Building on the concept of Granger causality in risk in Hong et al. (2009), and focusing on an international sample of large-capitalization banks, we test for predictability in comovements in the left tails of returns of individual banks and the global system. The main results show that large individual shocks (defined as balance-sheet contractions exceeding the 1% VaR level) are a strong predictor of subsequent shocks in the global system. This evidence is particularly strong for US banks with large desks of proprietary trading. Similarly, we document strong evidence of financial vulnerabilities (exposures) to systemic shocks in US subprime creditors.

Letters from Benjamin Welles to John Henry Tudor, 1799-1801

Benjamin Welles wrote these six letters to his friend and classmate, John Henry Tudor, between 1799 and 1801. Four of the letters are dated, and the dates of the other two can be deduced from their contents. Welles wrote Tudor four times in September 1799, at the onset of their senior year at Harvard, in an attempt to clear up hurt feelings and false rumors that he believed had caused a chill in their friendship. The cause of the rift is never fully explained, though Welles alludes to "a viper" and "villainous hypocrite" who apparently spread rumors and fueled discord between the two friends. In one letter, Welles asserts that "College is a rascal's Elysium - or the feeling man's hell." In another he writes: "College, Tudor, is a furnace to the phlegmatic, & a Greenland to thee feeling man; it has an atmosphere which breathes contagion to the soul [...] Villains fatten here. College is the embryo of hell." Whatever their discord, the wounds were apparently eventually healed; in a letter written June 26, 1800, Welles writes to ask Tudor about his impending speech at Commencement exercises. In an October 29, 1801 letter, Welles writes to Tudor in Philadelphia (where he appears to have traveled in attempts to recover his failing health) and expresses strong wishes for his friend's recovery and return to Boston. This letter also contains news of their classmate Washington Allston's meeting with painters Henry Fuseli and Benjamin West.

ECB Policy and Eurozone Fragility: Was De Grauwe Right? CEPS Working Document No. 397, June 2014

Paul De Grauwe’s fragility hypothesis states that member countries of a monetary union such as the eurozone are highly vulnerable to a self-fulfilling mechanism by which the efforts of investors to avoid losses from default can end up triggering the very default they fear. The authors test this hypothesis by applying an eclectic methodology to a time window around Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” (to keep the eurozone on firm footing) pledge on 26 July 2012. This pledge was soon followed by the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) programme (the prospective and conditional purchase by the European Central Bank of sovereign bonds of eurozone countries having difficulty issuing debt). The principal components of eurozone credit default swap spreads validate this choice of time frame. An event study reveals significant pre announcement contagion emanating from Spain to Italy, Belgium, France and Austria. Furthermore, time-series regression confirms frequent clusters of large shocks affecting the credit default swap spreads of the four eurozone countries but solely during the pre-announcement period. The findings of this report support the fragility hypothesis for the eurozone and endorse the Outright Monetary Transactions programme.

The Impact of Banking Structural Reform on Household Retail Finance. ECRI Commentary No. 13, 7 October 2014

There are two main objectives behind the EC proposal on banking structural reform: the financial stability objective and the economic efficiency objective. If it is implemented, the reform should reinforce the stability and economic efficiency of household retail activities through lower contagion, better resolvability in the event of failure, more harmonised supervisory practices across the EU and more resilient household demand for retail loans. However, it could also trigger counterproductive effects that could partly undermine the expected benefits. These potential negative effects are not appropriately assessed in the impact study of the proposal published in January 2014 and will require further consideration in the coming months. In particular, the stability of household retail finance could be strengthened by placing more emphasis on bankruptcy risks of retail banks; the transfer of existing systemic activities towards less regulated and supervised markets and reputational risk. A better analysis of the borrowing costs for households (impacted by the potential decreasing diversification of the funding base of banks and scarcer liquidity) and implementation costs could help regulators to achieve the objective of efficient household activities.