Correlations between major risk factors and closely related Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates grouped by three current enotyping procedures: a population-based study in northeast Mexico

The characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) patients related to a chain of recent TB transmissions were investigated. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates (120) were genotyped using the restriction fragment length polymorphism-IS6110 (R), spacer oligotyping (S) and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (M) methods. The MTB isolates were clustered and the clusters were grouped according to the similarities of their genotypes. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between the groups of MTB isolates with similar genotypes and those patient characteristics indicating a risk for a pulmonary TB (PTB) chain transmission were ana- lysed. The isolates showing similar genotypes were distributed as follows: SMR (5%), SM (12.5%), SR (1.67%), MR (0%), S (46.67%), M (5%) and R (0%). The remaining 35 cases were orphans. SMR exhibited a significant correlation (p < 0.05) with visits to clinics, municipalities and comorbidities (primarily diabetes mellitus). S correlated with drug consumption and M with comorbidities. SMR is needed to identify a social network in metropolitan areas for PTB transmission and S and M are able to detect risk factors as secondary components of a transmission chain of TB.

Clinical and epidemiological features and prognosis of complicated pyelonephritis: a prospective observational single hospital-based study.

BACKGROUND Complicated pyelonephritis (cPN), a common cause of hospital admission, is still a poorly-understood entity given the difficulty involved in its correct definition. The aim of this study was to analyze the main epidemiological, clinical, and microbiological characteristics of cPN and its prognosis in a large cohort of patients with cPN. METHODS We conducted a prospective, observational study including 1325 consecutive patients older than 14 years diagnosed with cPN and admitted to a tertiary university hospital between 1997-2013. After analyzing the main demographic, clinical and microbiological data, covariates found to be associated with attributable mortality in univariate analysis were included in a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS Of the 1325 patients, 689 (52%) were men and 636 (48%) women; median age 63 years, interquartile range [IQR] (46.5-73). Nine hundred and forty patients (70.9%) had functional or structural abnormalities in the urinary tract, 215 (16.2%) were immunocompromised, 152 (11.5%) had undergone a previous urinary tract instrumentation, and 196 (14.8%) had a long-term bladder catheter, nephrostomy tube or ureteral catheter. Urine culture was positive in 813 (67.7%) of the 1251 patients in whom it was done, and in the 1032 patients who had a blood culture, 366 (34%) had bacteraemia. Escherichia coli was the causative agent in 615 episodes (67%), Klebsiella spp in 73 (7.9%) and Proteus ssp in 61 (6.6%). Fourteen point one percent of GNB isolates were ESBL producers. In total, 343 patients (25.9%) developed severe sepsis and 165 (12.5%) septic shock. Crude mortality was 6.5% and attributable mortality was 4.1%. Multivariate analysis showed that an age >75 years (OR 2.77; 95% CI, 1.35-5.68), immunosuppression (OR 3.14; 95% CI, 1.47-6.70), and septic shock (OR 58.49; 95% CI, 26.6-128.5) were independently associated with attributable mortality. CONCLUSIONS cPN generates a high morbidity and mortality and likely a great consumption of healthcare resources. This study highlights the factors directly associated with mortality, though further studies are needed in the near future aimed at identifying subgroups of low-risk patients susceptible to outpatient management.

The building blocks of international ecological footprint inequality: a regression-based decomposition

This paper performs an empirical Decomposition of International Inequality in Ecological Footprint in order to quantify to what extent explanatory variables such as a country’s affluence, economic structure, demographic characteristics, climate and technology contributed to international differences in terms of natural resource consumption during the period 1993-2007. We use a Regression-Based Inequality Decomposition approach. As a result, the methodology extends qualitatively the results obtained in standard environmental impact regressions as it comprehends further social dimensions of the Sustainable Development concept, i.e. equity within generations. The results obtained point to prioritizing policies that take into account both future and present generations.

Excessive alcohol consumption in young men: is there an association with their earlier family situation? A baseline-analysis of the C-SURF-study (Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors).

AIMS: To determine whether parental factors earlier in life (parenting, single parent family, parental substance use problem) are associated with patterns of alcohol consumption among young men in Switzerland. METHODS: This analysis of a population based sample from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) included 5,990 young men (mean age 19.51 years), all attending a mandatory recruitment process for the army. These conscripts reported on parental monitoring and rule-setting, parental behaviour and family structure. The alcohol use pattern was assessed through abstention, risky single occasion drinking (RSOD), volume drinking and dependence. Furthermore, the impact of age, family socio-economic status, educational level of the parents, language region and civil status was analysed. RESULTS: A parental substance use problem was positively associated with volume drinking and alcohol dependence in young Swiss men. Active parenting corresponded negatively with RSOD, volume drinking and alcohol dependence. Single parent family was not associated with a different alcohol consumption pattern compared to standard family. CONCLUSION: Parental influences earlier in life such as active parenting (monitoring, rule-setting and knowing the whereabouts) and perceived parental substance use problem are associated with alcohol drinking behaviour in young male adults. Therefore, health professionals should stress the importance of active parenting and parental substance use prevention in alcohol prevention strategies.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.

Determining the best population-level alcohol consumption model and its impact on estimates of alcohol-attributable harms.

BACKGROUND: The goals of our study are to determine the most appropriate model for alcohol consumption as an exposure for burden of disease, to analyze the effect of the chosen alcohol consumption distribution on the estimation of the alcohol Population- Attributable Fractions (PAFs), and to characterize the chosen alcohol consumption distribution by exploring if there is a global relationship within the distribution. METHODS: To identify the best model, the Log-Normal, Gamma, and Weibull prevalence distributions were examined using data from 41 surveys from Gender, Alcohol and Culture: An International Study (GENACIS) and from the European Comparative Alcohol Study. To assess the effect of these distributions on the estimated alcohol PAFs, we calculated the alcohol PAF for diabetes, breast cancer, and pancreatitis using the three above-named distributions and using the more traditional approach based on categories. The relationship between the mean and the standard deviation from the Gamma distribution was estimated using data from 851 datasets for 66 countries from GENACIS and from the STEPwise approach to Surveillance from the World Health Organization. RESULTS: The Log-Normal distribution provided a poor fit for the survey data, with Gamma and Weibull distributions providing better fits. Additionally, our analyses showed that there were no marked differences for the alcohol PAF estimates based on the Gamma or Weibull distributions compared to PAFs based on categorical alcohol consumption estimates. The standard deviation of the alcohol distribution was highly dependent on the mean, with a unit increase in alcohol consumption associated with a unit increase in the mean of 1.258 (95% CI: 1.223 to 1.293) (R2 = 0.9207) for women and 1.171 (95% CI: 1.144 to 1.197) (R2 = 0. 9474) for men. CONCLUSIONS: Although the Gamma distribution and the Weibull distribution provided similar results, the Gamma distribution is recommended to model alcohol consumption from population surveys due to its fit, flexibility, and the ease with which it can be modified. The results showed that a large degree of variance of the standard deviation of the alcohol consumption Gamma distribution was explained by the mean alcohol consumption, allowing for alcohol consumption to be modeled through a Gamma distribution using only average consumption.

Participation in a population-based physical activity programme as an aid for smoking cessation: a randomised trial.

OBJECTIVES: Exercise combined with nicotine therapy may help smoking cessation and minimise weight gain after quitting. Low participation in vigorous-intensity physical activity programmes precludes their population-wide applicability. In a randomised controlled trial, we tested whether a population-based moderate-intensity physical activity programme increases quit rates among sedentary smokers receiving nicotine therapy. METHODS: Participants (n=481; 57% male; mean age, 42.2 years (SD 10.1); mean cigarette consumption, 27 (SD 10.2) per day) were offered a nine-week smoking cessation programme consisting of a weekly 15-minute counselling session and the prescription of nicotine replacement therapy. In addition, participants in the physical activity group (n=229) also took part in a programme of moderate-intensity physical activity implemented at the national level, and offering nine weekly 60-minute sessions of physical activity. To ensure equal contact conditions, participants in the control group (n=252) attended weekly 60-minute health behaviour education sessions unrelated to physical activity. The primary outcome was continuous CO-verified smoking abstinence rates at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Continuous smoking abstinence rates were high and similar in the physical activity group and the control group at the end of the intervention (47% versus 46%, p=0.81) and at 1-year follow-up (27% versus 29%, p=0.71). The mean weight gain after one year was 4.4 kg and 6.2 kg among sustained quitters of the physical activity and control groups, respectively (p=0.06). CONCLUSION: Participation in a population-based moderate-intensity physical activity programme for 9 weeks in addition to a comprehensive smoking cessation programme did not significantly increase smoking cessation rates. A non-significant reduction in weight gain was observed among participants who quit smoking in the physical activity group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; US National Institutes for Health (available online at http://clinicaltrials.gov/; CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00521391).

Smoking and adolescence: Exploring tobacco consumption and related attitudes in three different age groups in Switzerland

The present study constitutes an investigation of tobacco consumption, related attitudes and individual differences in smoking or non-smoking behaviors in a sample of adolescents of different ages in the French-speaking part of Switzerland. We investigated three school-age groups (7th-grade, 9th-grade, and the second-year of high school) for differences in attitude and social and cognitive dimensions. We present both descriptive and inferential statistics. On an inferential level, we present a binary logistic regression-based model predicting risk of smoking. The resulting model most importantly suggests a strong relationship between smoking and alcohol consumption (both regular and sporadic). We interpret this result in terms of both the impact of the actual campaigns and the cognitive processes associated with adolescence.

Vitamin D levels and associated factors: a population-based study in Switzerland.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY: To update the prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency and to identify factors associated with vitamin D status in the Swiss adult population. METHODS: Data from the 2010-2011 Swiss Study on Salt intake, a population-based study in the Swiss population, was used. Vitamin D concentration in serum was measured by liquid chromatography- tandem mass spectrometry. Major factors that influence vitamin D levels were taken into account. Survey statistical procedures were used to estimate means and prevalences of vitamin D levels and status. Monthly-specific tertiles of vitamin D and ordinal logistic regression were used to determine the associations of covariates of interest with vitamin D status. RESULTS: The prevalences of vitamin D insufficiency (serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D: 20-29.9 ng/ml) and deficiency (<20 ng/ml) were the highest in the January-March period; 26.4% (95%CI: 21.6-31.7) and 61.6% (95%CI: 56.0-67.0), respectively. In the same period, more than 9 of ten men were vitamin D insufficient or deficient. Each unit increase of Body Mass Index was associated with an 8% decreased likelihood of being in a higher vitamin D tertiles. Oral contraceptive, altitude, urinary excretion of calcium, use of vitamin D supplement or treatment, high wine consumption, physical activity were associated with vitamin D tertiles. Compared to the French-speaking region, the Italian-speaking region was independently associated with a higher likelihood of being in higher vitamin D tertiles (OR: 1.66, 95%CI: 1.14-2.43). CONCLUSIONS: Low levels of vitamin D are common among Swiss adults, in particular during winter months and outside the Italian-speaking region.

Réduction de la consommation de sel: opportunité, impact et stratégies. [Population reduction of salt consumption: opportunities, impact and strategies].

A national survey showed that Swiss people eat high quantity of salt (9.1 g per day on average). The Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) has launched a strategy to reduce salt intake in the population in order to decrease cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, mainly via blood pressure reduction. The most effective public health measures are to reduce the salt content of processed food rich in salt because they do not need to change consumers' eating behaviours. The FOPH has chosen to collaborate with the food industry on a voluntary basis. Regular population-based surveys will be needed to monitor the impact of current measures on salt consumption, hypertension prevalence as well as cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the years to come.

The Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, November 2006

The ongoing growth of corn-based ethanol production raises some fundamental questions about what impact continued growth will have on U.S. and world agriculture. Estimates of the long-run potential for ethanol production can be made by calculating the corn price at which the incentive to expand ethanol production disappears. Under current ethanol tax policy, if the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and distillers grains stay at current levels, then the break-even corn price is $4.05 per bushel. A multi-commodity, multi country system of integrated commodity models is used to estimate the impacts if we ever get to $4.05 corn. At this price, corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. Supporting this level of production would require 95.6 million acres of corn to be planted. Total corn production would be approximately 15.6 billion bushels, compared to 11.0 billion bushels today. Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat. Corn exports and production of pork and poultry would all be reduced in response to higher corn prices and increased utilization of corn by ethanol plants. These results should not be viewed as a prediction of what will eventually materialize. Rather, they indicate a logical end point to the current incentives to invest in corn-based ethanol plants.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.

Obesity-related phenotypes are associated to parental longevity in a Swiss population-based study

PURPOSE. Longevity has been attributed to decreased cardiovascular mortality. Subjects with long-lived parents may represent a valuable group to study cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) associated with longevity, possibly leading to new ways of preventing cardiovascular disease. Purpose: Longevity has been attributed to decreased cardiovascular mortality. Subjects with long-lived parents may represent a valuable group to study cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) associated with longevity, possibly leading to new ways of preventing cardiovascular disease. Methods: We analyzed data from a population-based sample of 2561 participants (1163 men and 1398 women) aged 55--75 years from the city of Lausanne, Switzerland (CoLaus study). Participants were stratified by the number of parents (0, 1, 2) who survived to 85 years or more. Trend across these strata was assessed using a non-parametric kmean test. The associations of parental age (independent covariate used as a proxy for longevity) with fasting blood glucose, blood pressures, blood lipids, body mass index (BMI), weight, height or liver enzymes (continuous dependent variables) were analyzed using multiple linear regressions. Models were adjusted for age, sex, alcohol consumption, smoking and educational level, and BMI for liver enzymes. Results: For subjects with 0 (N=1298), 1 (N=991) and 2 (N=272) long-lived parents, median BMI (interquartile range) was 25.4 (6.5), 24.9 (6.1) and 23.7 (4.8) kg/m2 in women (P<0.001), and 27.3 (4.8), 27.0 (4.5) and 25.9 (4.9) kg/m2 in men (P=0.04), respectively; median weight was 66.5 (16.1), 65.0 (16.4) and 63.4 (13.7) kg in women (P=0.003), and 81.5 (17.0), 81.4 (16.4) and 80.3 (17.1) kg in men (P=0.36). Median height was 161 (8), 162 (9) and 163 (8) cm in women (P=0.005), and 173 (9), 174 (9) and 174 (11) cm in men (P=0.09). The corresponding medians for AST (Aspartate Aminotransferase) were 31 (13), 29 (11) and 28 (10) U/L (P=0.002), and 28 (17), 27 (14) and 26 (19) U/L for ALT (Alanin Aminotransferase, P=0.053) in men. In multivariable analyses, greater parental longevity was associated with lower BMI, lower weight and taller stature in women (P<0.01) and lower AST in men (P=0.011). No significant associations were observed for the other variables analyzed. Sensitivity analyses restricted to subjects whose parents were dead (N=1844) led to similar results, with even stronger associations of parental longevity with liver enzymes in men. Conclusion: In women, increased parental longevity was associated with smaller BMI, attributable to lower weight and taller stature. In men, the association of increased parental longevity with lower liver enzymes, independently of BMI, suggests that parental longevity may be associated with decreased nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

An approach to costs and energy consumption in private urban Spanish Mediterranean landscapes from a simplified model in sprinkle irrigation

The number of private gardens has increased in recent years, creating a more pleasant urban model, but not without having an environmental impact, including increased energy consumption, which is the focus of this study. The estimation of costs and energy consumption for the generic typology of private urban gardens is based on two simplifying assumptions: square geometry with surface areas from 25 to 500 m2 and hydraulic design with a single pipe. In total, eight sprinkler models have been considered, along with their possible working pressures, and 31 pumping units grouped into 5 series that adequately cover the range of required flow rates and pressures, resultin in 495 hydraulic designs repeated for two climatically different locations in the Spanish Mediterranean area (Girona and Elche). Mean total irrigation costs for the locality with lower water needs (Girona) and greater needs (Elche) were € 2,974 ha-¹ yr-¹ and € 3,383 ha-¹ yr-¹, respectively. Energy costs accounted for 11.4% of the total cost for the first location, and 23.0% for the second. While a suitable choice of the hydraulic elements of the setup is essential, as it may provide average energy savings of 77%, due to the low energy cost in relation to the cost of installation, the potential energy savings do not constitute a significant incentive for the irrigation system design. The low efficiency of the pumping units used in this type of garden is the biggest obstacle and constraint to achieving a high quality energy solution

EMDR-based treatment of psychotraumatic antecedents in illicit drug abusers: a report of two cases

The co-occurrence of PTSD and of substance use disorder (SD) is known to be very high. However the question of whether and how to treat such patients remains largely unanswered in the EMDR community. We report on two cases of EMDR-based treatment of heavily affected SD patients in whom psychotraumatic antecedents were identified. EMDR sessions focused on trauma-related material and not on the expression of cue-induced drug craving. The treatment appeared to be a difficult and challenging endeavour. However, some beneficial effects on general comfort and on drug consumption could be observed. A long stabilization phase was mandatory and the standard EMDR protocol needed to be conducted with much flexibility. Interestingly, there was no provocation of a prolonged psychological crisis or of relapse. Experiencing of emotional stress could be limited to the sessions and dissociation could be absorbed with specific well-known techniques without permanently increasing drug craving. These observations are discussed in relation to previously published concepts of using EMDR in the field of trauma and substance abuse.