Sensoriamento remoto hidroacústico no mapeamento de macrófitas aquáticas submersas

Macrófitas são importantes produtoras primárias do ecossistema aquático, e o desequilíbrio do ambiente pode ocasionar seu crescimento acelerado. Portanto, levantamentos de dados relacionados a macrófitas submersas são importantes para contribuir na gestão de corpos de água. Contudo, a amostragem dessa vegetação requer um enorme esforço físico. Nesse sentido, a técnica hidroacústica é apropriada para o estudo de macrófitas submersas. Assim, os objetivos deste trabalho foram avaliar os tipos de dados gerados pelo ecobatímetro e analisar como esses dados caracterizam a vegetação. Utilizou-se o ecobatímetro BioSonics DT-X acoplado a um GPS. A área de estudo é um trecho do Rio Uberaba, MG. A amostragem foi feita por meio de transectos, navegando de uma margem à outra. Depois de processar os dados, obteve-se informação a respeito de ocorrência de macrófitas submersas, profundidade, altura média das plantas, porcentagem da cobertura vegetal e posição. A partir desse conjunto de dados, foi possível extrair outras duas métricas: biovolume e altura efetiva do dossel. Os dados foram importados de um Sistema de Informação Geográfica e geraram-se mapas ilustrativos das variáveis estudadas. Além disso, quatro perfis foram selecionados para analisar a diferença entre as grandezas de representação de macrófitas. O ecobatímetro mostrou-se uma ferramenta eficaz no mapeamento de macrófitas submersas. Cada uma das medidas - altura do dossel, ECH ou biovolume - caracteriza de forma diferente a vegetação submersa. Dessa forma, a escolha do tipo de representação depende da aplicação desejada.

Calibração de um equipamento de TDR para medida de umidade de solos

Este estudo visou à obtenção das curvas de calibração de um equipamento de TDR (Time Domain Reflectometry) em cinco solos da região de Piracicaba, SP, e testou a adequação da calibração interna do equipamento e das curvas genéricas de calibração. As curvas ajustadas, em cada solo separadamente, apresentaram coeficientes de determinação (R²) da ordem de 0,99, e a curva ajustada para o conjunto de dados dos cinco solos apresentou R² = 0,976. A análise de erros-padrão de estimativa mostrou que as curvas genéricas não se prestam às aplicações mais sensíveis, tais como na determinação absoluta do conteúdo de água do solo. Os testes de comparação entre as curvas ajustadas, a curva genérica e a curva embutida no equipamento mostraram que a primeira é superior às demais. O estudo mostrou, também, que a curva de calibração embutida no equipamento é inadequada para as determinações de umidade nos cinco solos estudados.

Estudo sistemático de estrelas variáveis na era dos grandes surveys

The interest in the systematic analysis of astronomical time series data, as well as development in astronomical instrumentation and automation over the past two decades has given rise to several questions of how to analyze and synthesize the growing amount of data. These data have led to many discoveries in the areas of modern astronomy asteroseismology, exoplanets and stellar evolution. However, treatment methods and data analysis have failed to follow the development of the instruments themselves, although much effort has been done. In present thesis, we propose new methods of data analysis and two catalogs of the variable stars that allowed the study of rotational modulation and stellar variability. Were analyzed the photometric databases fromtwo distinctmissions: CoRoT (Convection Rotation and planetary Transits) and WFCAM (Wide Field Camera). Furthermore the present work describes several methods for the analysis of photometric data besides propose and refine selection techniques of data using indices of variability. Preliminary results show that variability indices have an efficiency greater than the indices most often used in the literature. An efficient selection of variable stars is essential to improve the efficiency of all subsequent steps. Fromthese analyses were obtained two catalogs; first, fromtheWFCAMdatabase we achieve a catalog with 319 variable stars observed in the photometric bands Y ZJHK. These stars show periods ranging between ∼ 0, 2 to ∼ 560 days whose the variability signatures present RR-Lyrae, Cepheids , LPVs, cataclysmic variables, among many others. Second, from the CoRoT database we selected 4, 206 stars with typical signatures of rotationalmodulation, using a supervised process. These stars show periods ranging between ∼ 0, 33 to ∼ 92 days, amplitude variability between ∼ 0, 001 to ∼ 0, 5 mag, color index (J - H) between ∼ 0, 0 to ∼ 1, 4 mag and spectral type CoRoT FGKM. The WFCAM variable stars catalog is being used to compose a database of light curves to be used as template in an automatic classifier for variable stars observed by the project VVV (Visible and Infrared Survey Telescope for Astronomy) moreover it are a fundamental start point to study different scientific cases. For example, a set of 12 young stars who are in a star formation region and the study of RR Lyrae-whose properties are not well established in the infrared. Based on CoRoT results we were able to show, for the first time, the rotational modulation evolution for an wide homogeneous sample of field stars. The results are inagreement with those expected by the stellar evolution theory. Furthermore, we identified 4 solar-type stars ( with color indices, spectral type, luminosity class and rotation period close to the Sun) besides 400 M-giant stars that we have a special interest to forthcoming studies. From the solar-type stars we can describe the future and past of the Sun while properties of M-stars are not well known. Our results allow concluded that there is a high dependence of the color-period diagram with the reddening in which increase the uncertainties of the age-period realized by previous works using CoRoT data. This thesis provides a large data-set for different scientific works, such as; magnetic activity, cataclysmic variables, brown dwarfs, RR-Lyrae, solar analogous, giant stars, among others. For instance, these data will allow us to study the relationship of magnetic activitywith stellar evolution. Besides these aspects, this thesis presents an improved classification for a significant number of stars in the CoRoT database and introduces a new set of tools that can be used to improve the entire process of the photometric databases analysis

Avaliação da genotoxicidade das águas do lençol freático sob a Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

The groundwater represents the most important freshwater supply of planet. Dailly, in all world a great amount of toxic and genotoxic material reaches the aquatic systems, mainly the aquifers. The Barreiras aquifer through of five water wells is responsible for the supplying of Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). All water wells are polluted with nitrate and some heavy metals, two of them were disabled. The genotoxicity of groundwater samples from Barreiras Aquifer in UFRN was assessed using the Allium cepa test, the Ames test and the Salmonella typhymurium microsuspension test (Kado test). For the Allium cepa test the influence of the groundwater samples collected on macroscopic (root length, colour and form) and microscopic (root tip mitotic index, chromosome aberrations and micronucleus) parameters was examined. All water samples caused a significant increase of the chromosome and mitotic aberration frequency and reduction on the rooth growth compared to negative control. Bridges and chromosome stickness were the most frequent kind of aberration in dividing cells. Furthermore, breaks were also observed. No significant increase in the number of micronuclei was found in relation to the negative controls. For Ames test were used the Salmonella typhymurium strains TA98 and TA100 without metabolic activation, applying the direct method. Prior to the Kado test, organic fractions from the water samples were obtained through XAD resin concentration. The mutagenicity organic extracts were evaluated by Kado test using TA98 and TA100 strains, in the absence and presence of S9 mix (metabolic activation). The concentrations of seven heavy metal ions were measured in water samples, but only Ni, Cu and Cr levels exceeded the permissible maximum concentration for the natural reservoirs. The results obtained for mutagenic activity using the Ames test were negative in all raw water samples analyzed. Positive results in XAD4 extracts of water samples were obtained for TA98 in the presence of S9 mix for two stations. Concentrations of heavy metals and nitrate can be correlated with the toxicity and genotoxicity of water analyzed. The mutagenic effect detected with TA98 strain suggested that organic compounds (after metabolization) are involved with the mutagenicity detected in the samples analyzed. The data set obtained in this work indicated the presence of at least two classes of mutagens: organic and inorganic compounds

Modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura e omissão nas covariáveis

In this work we study the survival cure rate model proposed by Yakovlev (1993) that are considered in a competing risk setting. Covariates are introduced for modeling the cure rate and we allow some covariates to have missing values. We consider only the cases by which the missing covariates are categorical and implement the EM algorithm via the method of weights for maximum likelihood estimation. We present a Monte Carlo simulation experiment to compare the properties of the estimators based on this method with those estimators under the complete case scenario. We also evaluate, in this experiment, the impact in the parameter estimates when we increase the proportion of immune and censored individuals among the not immune one. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with a real data set involving the time until the graduation for the undergraduate course of Statistics of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte

Análise de resíduos em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório

We present residual analysis techniques to assess the fit of correlated survival data by Accelerated Failure Time Models (AFTM) with random effects. We propose an imputation procedure for censored observations and consider three types of residuals to evaluate different model characteristics. We illustrate the proposal with the analysis of AFTM with random effects to a real data set involving times between failures of oil well equipment

Efeitos da eliminação de neurônios infragranulares sobre a especificação de neurônios supragranulares do córtex cerebral

The cerebral cortex of mammals is histologically organized into different layers of excitatory neurons that have distinct patterns of connections with cortical or subcortical targets. During development, these cortical layers are established through an intricate combination of neuronal specification and migration in a radial pattern known as "insideout": deep-layer neurons are generated prior to upper-layer neurons. In the last few decades, several genes encoding transcription factors involved in the sequential specification of neurons destined to different cortical layers have been identified. However, the influence of early-generated neurons in the specification of subsequent neuronal cohorts remains unclear. To investigate this possible influence, we induced the selective death of cortical neurons from layer V and VI before the generation of layer II, III and IV neurons. Thus, we can evaluate the effects of ablation of early born neurons on the phenotype of late born neurons. Our data shows that one-day after ablation, layer VI neurons expressing the transcription factor TBR1 are newly generated while virtually no neuron expressing TBR1 was generated in the same age in control animals. This suggests that progenitors involved in the generation of neurons destined for superficial layers suffer interference from the selective death of neurons in deep layers, changing their specification. We also observed that while TBR1-positive neurons are located exclusively in deep cortical layers of control animals, many TBR1-positive neurons are misplaced in superficial layers of ablated animals, suggesting that the migration of cortical neurons could be controlled independently of neuronal phenotypes. Furthermore, we observed an increase in layer V neurons expressing CTIP2 and neurons expressing SATB2 and that these cells have changed their distributions. As a conclusion, our data indicate the existence of a mechanism of control exercised by the early-generated neurons in the cerebral cortex on the fate of the progenitors involved in the generation of the following cortical neurons. This mechanism could help to control the number of neurons in different layers and contribute to the establishment of different cortical areas

Déficits de memória induzidos por baixas doses de reserpina em ratos: possível relação com prejuízos no processamento emocional na Doença de Parkinson

We have recently verified that the monoamine depleting drug reserpine at doses that do not modify motor function - impairs memory in a rodent model of aversive discrimination. In this study, the effects of reserpine (0.1-0.5 mg/kg) on the performance of rats in object recognition, spatial working memory (spontaneous alternation) and emotional memory (contextual freezing conditioning) tasks were investigated. While object recognition and spontaneous alternation behavior were not affected by reserpine treatment, contextual fear conditioning was impaired. Together with previous studies, these results suggest that mild monoamine depletion would preferentially induce deficits in tasks involved with emotional contexts. Possible relationships with cognitive and emotional processing deficits in Parkinson disease are discussed

Uso de confiabilidade na rotulação de exemplos em problemas de classificação multirrótulo com aprendizado semissupervisionado

The techniques of Machine Learning are applied in classification tasks to acquire knowledge through a set of data or information. Some learning methods proposed in literature are methods based on semissupervised learning; this is represented by small percentage of labeled data (supervised learning) combined with a quantity of label and non-labeled examples (unsupervised learning) during the training phase, which reduces, therefore, the need for a large quantity of labeled instances when only small dataset of labeled instances is available for training. A commom problem in semi-supervised learning is as random selection of instances, since most of paper use a random selection technique which can cause a negative impact. Much of machine learning methods treat single-label problems, in other words, problems where a given set of data are associated with a single class; however, through the requirement existent to classify data in a lot of domain, or more than one class, this classification as called multi-label classification. This work presents an experimental analysis of the results obtained using semissupervised learning in troubles of multi-label classification using reliability parameter as an aid in the classification data. Thus, the use of techniques of semissupervised learning and besides methods of multi-label classification, were essential to show the results

Novos métodos determinísticos para gerar centros iniciais dos grupos no algoritmo fuzzy C-Means e variantes

Data clustering is applied to various fields such as data mining, image processing and pattern recognition technique. Clustering algorithms splits a data set into clusters such that elements within the same cluster have a high degree of similarity, while elements belonging to different clusters have a high degree of dissimilarity. The Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm (FCM) is a fuzzy clustering algorithm most used and discussed in the literature. The performance of the FCM is strongly affected by the selection of the initial centers of the clusters. Therefore, the choice of a good set of initial cluster centers is very important for the performance of the algorithm. However, in FCM, the choice of initial centers is made randomly, making it difficult to find a good set. This paper proposes three new methods to obtain initial cluster centers, deterministically, the FCM algorithm, and can also be used in variants of the FCM. In this work these initialization methods were applied in variant ckMeans.With the proposed methods, we intend to obtain a set of initial centers which are close to the real cluster centers. With these new approaches startup if you want to reduce the number of iterations to converge these algorithms and processing time without affecting the quality of the cluster or even improve the quality in some cases. Accordingly, cluster validation indices were used to measure the quality of the clusters obtained by the modified FCM and ckMeans algorithms with the proposed initialization methods when applied to various data sets

Caracterização da dinâmica ambiental da região costeira do município de Galinhos, litoral setentrional do Rio Grande do Norte

This doctorate thesis concerning on the Characterization of the Environmental Dynamics of the Coastal Area of the Municipal district of Galinhos, Septentrional Coast of Rio Grande do Norte State, is located in the influence area of the Guamaré Petroliferous Pole, having as general objective the understanding of the active coastal dynamics in the region of Galinhos, whose specific objectives were: To study the variation of the coast line in the decades of 1954, 1967,1988, 1996, 2000, from remote sensing products; To elucidate the hypothesis of the region of Galinhos to have been an old system of islands barriers, using as basic tool the penetration radar in the soil - GPR; To monitor and to characterize the coastal dynamics of the study area starting from monthly data of beach profiles, sedimentological analysis, hydrodynamic data and environmental characterization data; which were used to feed the database of the N-NE network of Environmental Monitoring of Areas under Influence of the Petroliferous Industry;(REDE05/FINEP/CNPq/CTPETRO/ PETROBRAS). This research is justified, of the environmental point of view, by involving the mangrove ecosystem considered one of the most delicated environments of the State. From the viewpoint of the petroleum exploration, the systems of islands barriers are favorable for hydrocarbons reservoirs and, consequently important targets to the oil and gas industry, becoming this region attractive in comparison with similar lithified environments. With the results of the variability study in the position of the coast line in the Municipal district of Galinhos/RN from the analysis of remote sensing images, it was possible to investigate the changes in the coast line in temporal scale; the use of directional filters allowed to emphasize linings in the direction NE and to identify submerged features such as sandwaves. The use of GPR enabled the confirmation of paleochannels existence and thus confirmed the hypothesis that the Galinhos spit was formed from an old system of islands barriers. The results of the granulometric analyses indicated that in the summer period the sediments in the profiles A and B in the foreshore portion were classified with the granulometry of sand with scattered gravel and in the shoreface were constituted by sand, but in the winter period these same morphologic compartments were constituted by sand with sparse gravel and siltic sand respectively. In the profile C, in the summer and in the winter, the shoreface and foreshore compartments presented predominantly constituted by sand with sparse gravel. The hydrodynamic results showed that the largest wave heights were registered in the month of February (62 cm) and the highest period of 1,00 m/s in the month of May, the sense of the coastal currents was kept among the quadrants SW and NW, and the winds coming from NE were predominant. The analysis of the beach profiles demonstrated that in the profile A, although it had occurred erosion and deposition during the monitored months, the morphology of the referred profile was kept constant. In the profiles B and C, there were abrupt changes in the morphology, during the monitored months, having been identified a cyclic pattern in the features of the foreshore zone sometimes forming longitudinal sandy bars and in other times forming berm. These results evidenced, therefore, that studies of this nature are of fundamental importance for the coastal zoning, aiming subsidies to the organs managers in the closing of decisions as for the implantation of enterprises in the area, and for the industry of the petroleum through generation of information that subsidize the implementation and location of petroliferous structures adequate to this environment

Litoestratigrafia e deformação cenzóica na região de Icapuí, Ceará, e implicações para a estruturação de campos de petróleo na borda ocidental da bacia Potiguar(NE do Brasil)

This thesis deals with the sedimentological/stratigraphic and structural evolution of the sedimentary rocks that occur in the NW continental border of the Potiguar Basin. These rocks are well exposed along coastal cliffs between the localities of Lagoa do Mato and Icapuí, Ceará State (NE Brazil). The sedimentological/stratigraphic study involved, at the outcrop scale, detailed facies descriptions, profile mapping of the vertical succession of different beds, and columnar sections displaying inferred lateral relationships. The approach was complemented by granulometric and petrographic analyses, including the characterization of heavy mineral assemblages. The data set allowed to recognize two kinds of lithological units, a carbonate one of very restricted occurrence at the base of the cliffs, and three younger, distinct siliciclastic units, that predominate along the cliffs, in vertical and lateral extent. The carbonate rocks were correlated to the late Cretaceous Jandaíra Formation, which is covered by the siliciclastic Barreiras Formation. The Barreiras Formation occurs in two distinct structural settings, the usual one with nondeformed, subhorizontal strata, or as tilted beds, affected by strong deformation. Two lithofacies were recognized, vertically arranged or in fault contacts. The lower facies is characterized by silty-argillaceous sandstones with low-angle cross bedding; the upper facies comprises medium to coarse grained sandstones, with conglomeratic layers. The Tibau Formation (medium to coarse-grained sandstones with argillite intercalations) occurs at the NW side of the studied area, laterally interlayered with the Barreiras Formation. Eolic sediments correlated to the Potengi Formation overly the former units, either displaying an angular unconformity, or simply an erosional contact (stratigraphic unconformity). Outstanding structural features, identified in the Barreiras Formation, led to characterize a neocenozoic stress field, which generated faults and folds and/or reactivated older structures in the subjacent late cretaceous (to paleogene, in the offshore basin) section. The structures recognized in the Barreiras Formation comprise two distinct assemblages, namely a main extensional deformation between the localities of Ponta Grossa and Redonda, and a contractional style (succeeded by oblique extensional structures) at Vila Nova. In the first case, the structural assemblage is dominated by N-S (N±20°Az) steep to gently-dipping extensional faults, displaying a domino-style or listric geometry with associated roll-over structures. This deformation pattern is explained by an E-W/WNW extension, contemporaneous with deposition of the upper facies of the Barreiras Formation, during the time interval Miocene to Pleistocene. Strong rotation of blocks and faults generated low-angle distensional faults and, locally, subvertical bedding, allowing to estimate very high strain states, with extension estimates varying between 40% up to 200%. Numerous detachment zones, parallel to bedding, help to acommodate this intense deformation. The detachment surfaces and a large number of faults display mesoscopic features analoguous to the ones of ductile shear zones, with development of S-C fabrics, shear bands, sigmoidal clasts and others, pointing to a hydroplastic deformation regime in these cases. Local occurrences of the Jandaíra limestone are controled by extensional faults that exhume the pre-Barreiras section, including an earlier event with N-S extension. Finally, WNWtrending extensional shear zones and faults are compatible with the Holocene stress field along the present continental margin. In the Vila Nova region, close to Icapuí, gentle normal folds with fold hinges shallowly pluging to SSW affect the lower facies of the Barreiras Formation, displaying an incipient dissolution cleavage associated with an extension lineation at high rake (a S>L fabric). Deposition of the upper facies siliciclastics is controlled by pull-apart graben structures, bordered by N-NE-trending sinistral-normal shear zones and faults, characterizing an structural inversion. Microstructures are compatible with tectonic deformation of the sedimentary pile, burried at shallow depths. The observed features point to high pore fluid pressures during deformation of the sediments, producing hydroplastic structures through mechanisms of granular flow. Such structures are overprinted by microfractures and microfaults (an essentially brittle regime), tracking the change to microfracturing and frictional shear mechanisms accompanying progressive dewatering and sediment lithification. Correlation of the structures observed at the surface with those present at depth was tested through geophysical data (Ground Penetrating Radar, seismics and a magnetic map). EW and NE-trending lineaments are observed in the magnetic map. The seismic sections display several examples of positive flower structures which affect the base of the cretaceous sediments; at higher stratigraphic levels, normal components/slips are compatible with the negative structural inversion characterized at the surface. Such correlations assisted in proposing a structural model compatible with the regional tectonic framework. The strong neogenepleistocene deformation is necessarily propagated in the subsurface, affecting the late cretaceous section (Açu and Jandaíra formations), wich host the hydrocarbon reservoirs in this portion of the Potiguar Basin. The proposed structural model is related to the dextral transcurrent/transform deformation along the Equatorial Margin, associated with transpressive terminations of E-W fault zones, or at their intersections with NE-trending lineaments, such as the Ponta Grossa-Fazenda Belém one (the LPGFB, itself controlled by a Brasiliano-age strike-slip shear zone). In a first step (and possibly during the late Cretaceous to Paleogene), this lineament was activated under a sinistral transpressional regime (antithetic to the main dextral deformation in the E-W zones), giving way to the folds in the lower facies of the Barreiras Formation, as well as the positive flower structures mapped through the seismic sections, at depth. This stage was succeeded (or was penecontemporaneous) by the extensional structures related to a (also sinistral) transtensional movement stage, associated to volcanism (Macau, Messejana) and thermal doming processes during the Neogene-Pleistocene time interval. This structural model has direct implications to hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation activities at this sector of the Potiguar Basin and its offshore continuation. The structure of the reservoirs at depth (Açu Formation sandstones of the post-rift section) may be controlled (or at least, strongly influenced) by the deformation geometry and kinematics characterized at the surface. In addition, the deformation event recognized in the Barreiras Formation has an age close to the one postulated for the oil maturation and migration in the basin, between the Oligocene to the Miocene. In this way, the described structural cenario represents a valid model to understand the conditions of hydrocarbon transport and acummulation through space openings, trap formation and destruction. This model is potentially applicable to the NW region of the Potiguar Basin and other sectors with a similar structural setting, along the brazilian Equatorial Atlantic Margin

DFA e análise de agrupamento aplicadas a perfis de porosidade neutrônico em poços de petróleo

Peng was the first to work with the Technical DFA (Detrended Fluctuation Analysis), a tool capable of detecting auto-long-range correlation in time series with non-stationary. In this study, the technique of DFA is used to obtain the Hurst exponent (H) profile of the electric neutron porosity of the 52 oil wells in Namorado Field, located in the Campos Basin -Brazil. The purpose is to know if the Hurst exponent can be used to characterize spatial distribution of wells. Thus, we verify that the wells that have close values of H are spatially close together. In this work we used the method of hierarchical clustering and non-hierarchical clustering method (the k-mean method). Then compare the two methods to see which of the two provides the best result. From this, was the parameter � (index neighborhood) which checks whether a data set generated by the k- average method, or at random, so in fact spatial patterns. High values of � indicate that the data are aggregated, while low values of � indicate that the data are scattered (no spatial correlation). Using the Monte Carlo method showed that combined data show a random distribution of � below the empirical value. So the empirical evidence of H obtained from 52 wells are grouped geographically. By passing the data of standard curves with the results obtained by the k-mean, confirming that it is effective to correlate well in spatial distribution

Infecção em idosos internados em instituição de longa permanência

OBJETIVO: Avaliar ocorrência de infecção em idosos de instituição de longa permanência (ILP) durante 13 meses consecutivos. MÉTODOS: Cinqüenta e cinco idosos foram avaliados segundo critérios de infecção e de comunicação padronizada. RESULTADOS: A idade mediana foi de 75 (66-81) anos. O conjunto de dados constituiu-se de 20.896 pacientes-dia (PD) durante o período, com um total de 76 infecções para uma taxa média de infecção de 3,2 por 1000 PD. A taxa de pacientes com infecção foi de 63,6%. As topografias prevalentes foram respiratória (50%), trato urinário (32%), pele e partes moles (12%) e gastrintestinal (7%), com taxa de infecção/1000 PD de 1,60; 1,01; 0,38; e 0,2, respectivamente. A taxa de mortalidade por infecção foi de 5%. Agentes microbiológicos foram isolados em 30,5% dos episódios infecciosos e Escherichia coli e Staphylococcus aureus foram os mais freqüentes. CONCLUSÃO: Infecção apresentou elevada incidência nos idosos institucionalizados, porém nenhum evento extraordinário foi observado.

Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.