Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Epidemiology of multiple congenital anomalies in Europe: a EUROCAT population-based registry study.

BACKGROUND: This study describes the prevalence, associated anomalies, and demographic characteristics of cases of multiple congenital anomalies (MCA) in 19 population-based European registries (EUROCAT) covering 959,446 births in 2004 and 2010. METHODS: EUROCAT implemented a computer algorithm for classification of congenital anomaly cases followed by manual review of potential MCA cases by geneticists. MCA cases are defined as cases with two or more major anomalies of different organ systems, excluding sequences, chromosomal and monogenic syndromes. RESULTS: The combination of an epidemiological and clinical approach for classification of cases has improved the quality and accuracy of the MCA data. Total prevalence of MCA cases was 15.8 per 10,000 births. Fetal deaths and termination of pregnancy were significantly more frequent in MCA cases compared with isolated cases (p < 0.001) and MCA cases were more frequently prenatally diagnosed (p < 0.001). Live born infants with MCA were more often born preterm (p < 0.01) and with birth weight < 2500 grams (p < 0.01). Respiratory and ear, face, and neck anomalies were the most likely to occur with other anomalies (34% and 32%) and congenital heart defects and limb anomalies were the least likely to occur with other anomalies (13%) (p < 0.01). However, due to their high prevalence, congenital heart defects were present in half of all MCA cases. Among males with MCA, the frequency of genital anomalies was significantly greater than the frequency of genital anomalies among females with MCA (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Although rare, MCA cases are an important public health issue, because of their severity. The EUROCAT database of MCA cases will allow future investigation on the epidemiology of these conditions and related clinical and diagnostic problems.

Expression analysis of the AtPHO1 gene family in Arabidopsis thaliana and the involvement of AtPHO1 in the regulation of stomatal movements

Résumé Le transfert du phosphate des racines vers les feuilles s'effectue par la voie du xylème. Il a été précédemment démontré que la protéine AtPHO1 était indispensable au transfert du phosphate dans les vaisseaux du xylème des racines chez la plante modèle Arabidopsis thaliana. Le séquençage et l'annotation du génome d'Arabidopsis ont permis d'identifier dix séquences présentant un niveau de similarité significatif avec le gène AtPHO1 et constituant une nouvelle famille de gène appelé la famille de AtPHO1. Basée sur une étude moléculaire et génétique, cette thèse apporte des éléments de réponse pour déterminer le rôle des membres de ia famille de AtPHO1 chez Arabidopsis, inconnue à ce jour. Dans un premier temps, une analyse bioinformatique des séquences protéiques des membres de la famille de AtPHO1 a révélé la présence dans leur région N-terminale d'un domaine nommé SPX. Ce dernier est conservé parmi de nombreuses protéines impliquées dans l'homéostasie du phosphate chez la levure, renforçant ainsi l'hypothèse que les membres de la famille de AtPHO1 auraient comme AtPHO1 un rôle dans l'équilibre du phosphate dans la plante. En parallèle, la localisation tissulaire de l'expression des gènes AtPHO dans Arabidopsis a été identifiée par l'analyse de plantes transgéniques exprimant le gène rapporteur uidA sous le contrôle des promoteurs respectifs des gènes AtPHO. Un profil d'expression de chaque gène AtPHO au cours du développement de la plante a été obtenu. Une expression prédominante au niveau des tissus vasculaires des racines, des feuilles, des tiges et des fleurs a été observée, suggérant que les gènes AtPHO pourraient avoir des fonctions redondantes au niveau du transfert de phosphate dans le cylindre vasculaire de ces différents organes. Toutefois, plusieurs régions promotrices des gènes AtPHO contrôlent également un profil d'expression GUS non-vasculaire, indiquant un rôle putatif des gènes AtPHO dans l'acquisition ou le recyclage de phosphate dans la plante. Dans un deuxième temps, l'analyse de l'expression des gènes AtPHO durant une carence en phosphate a établi que seule l'expression des gènes AtPHO1, AtPHO1; H1 et AtPHO1; H10 est régulée par cette carence. Une étude approfondie de leur expression en réponse à des traitements affectant l'homéostasie du phosphate dans la plante a ensuite démontré leur régulation par différentes voies de signalisation. Ensuite, une analyse détaillée de la régulation de l'expression du gène AtPHO1; H1O dans des feuilles d'Arabidopsis blessées ou déshydratées a révélé que ce gène constitue le premìer gène marqueur d'une nouvelle voie de signalisation induite par l'OPDA, pas par le JA et dépendante de la protéine COI1. Ces résultats démontrent pour la première fois que l'OPDA et le JA peuvent activer différents gènes via des voies de signalisation dépendantes de COI1. Enfin, cette thèse révèle l'identification d'un nouveau rôle de la protéine AtPHO1 dans la régulation de l'action de l'ABA au cours des processus de fermeture stomatique et de germination des graines chez Arabidopsis. Bien que les fonctions exactes des protéines AtPHO restent à être déterminées, ce travail de thèse suggère leur implication dans la propagation de différents signaux dans la plante via la modulation du potentiel membranaire et/ou l'affectation de la composition en ions des cellules comme le font de nombreux transporteurs ou régulateur du transport d'ions. Summary Phosphate is transferred from the roots to the shoot via the xylem. The requirement for AtPHO1 protein to transfer phosphate to the xylem vessels of the root has been previously demonstrated in Arabidopsis thaliana. The sequencing and the annotation of the Arabidopsis genome had allowed the identification of ten sequences that show a significant level of similarity with the AtPHO1 gene. These 10 genes, of unknown functions, constitute a new gene family called the AtPHO1 gene family. Based on a molecular and genetics study, this thesis reveals some information needed to understand the role of the AtPHO1 family members in the plant Arabidopsis. First, a bioinformatics study revealed that the AtPHO sequences contained, in the N-terminal hydrophilic region, a motif called SPX and conserved among multiple proteins involved in phosphate homeostasis in yeast. This finding reinforces the hypothesis that all AtPHO1 family members have, as AtPHO1, a role in phosphate homeostasis. In parallel, we identified the pattern of expression of AtPHO genes in Arabidopsis via analysis of transgenic plants expressing the uidA reporter gene under the control of respective AtPHO promoter regions. The results exhibit a predominant expression of AtPHO genes in vascular tissues of all organs of the plant, implying that these AtPHO genes could have redundant functions in the transfer of phosphate to the vascular cylinder of various organs. The GUS expression pattern for several AtPHO promoter regions was also detected in non-vascular tissue indicating a broad role of AtPHO genes in the acquisition or in the recycling of phosphate in the plant. In a second step, the analysis of the expression of AtPHO genes during phosphate starvation established that only the expression of the AtPHO1, AtPHO1; H1 and AtPHO1; H10 genes were regulated by Pi starvation. Interestingly, different signalling pathways appeared to regulate these three genes during various treatments affecting Pi homeostasis in the plant. The third chapter presents a detailed analysis of the signalling pathways regulating the expression of the AtPHO1; H10 gene in Arabidopsis leaves during wound and dehydrated stresses. Surprisingly, the expression of AtPHO1; H10 was found to be regulated by OPDA (the precursor of JA) but not by JA itself and via the COI1 protein (the central regulator of the JA signalling pathway). These results demonstrated for the first time that OPDA and JA could activate distinct genes via COI1-dependent pathways. Finally, this thesis presents the identification of a novel role of the AtPHO1 protein in the regulation of ABA action in Arabidopsis guard cells and during seed germination. Although the exact role and function of AtPHO1 still need to be determined, these last findings suggest that AtPHO1 and by extension other AtPHO proteins could mediate the propagation of various signals in the plant by modulating the membrane potential and/or by affecting cellular ion composition, as it is the case for many ion transporters or regulators of ion transport.

Congenital and nursing effects on the evolution of Schistosoma mansoni infection in mice

Modification of the immune response to schistosomal infection in children or offspring born to mother R infected with Schistosoma mansoni has been demonstrated in human and in experimental schistosomiasis. One of the hypothesis to explain this fact could be the transfer of circulating antigens and antibodies from mother to foetus through the placenta or from mother to child by milk. The results of this spontaneous transference are controversial in the literature. In an attempt to investigate these questions, we studied one hundred and twenty offspring (Swiss mice), sixty born to infected-mothers (group A) and sixty born to non-infected mothers (group B). These were percutaneously infected with 50 cercariae/mouse, and divided in six sub-groups (20 mice/sub-group), according to the following schedule: after birth (sub-groups A.I and B.I), 10 days old (sub-groups A.II and B.II) and 21 days old (sub-groups A.III and B.III). After the exposure period, the young mice returned to their own mothers for nursing. Six weeks later, the mice were killed. We obtained the following results: 1) There is transference of antibody to cercariae (CAP), adult worms (SWAP) and egg antigens (SEA) from the infected mothers to the offspring, probably through placenta and milk; 2) Offspring born to infected mothers exhibit much less coagulative hepatic necrosis and show a lower number of eggs in the small intestine and a less intense and predominant exsudative stage of the hepatic granulomas when compared with the exsudative-productive stage of the control groups. The findings suggest that congenital and nursing factors can interfere on the development of the schistosomiasis infection, causing an hyporesponse to the eggs.

Congenital heart disease in pregnancies complicated by maternal diabetes mellitus. An international clinical collaboration, literature review, and meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Investigation of the incidence and distribution of congenital structural cardiac malformations among the offspring of mothers with diabetes type 1 and of the influence of periconceptional glycemic control. METHODS: Multicenter retrospective clinical study, literature review, and meta-analysis. The incidence and pattern of congenital heart disease in the own study population and in the literature on the offspring of type 1 diabetic mothers were compared with the incidence and spectrum of the various cardiovascular defects in the offspring of nondiabetic mothers as registered by EUROCAT Northern Netherlands. Medical records were, in addition, reviewed for HbA(1c) during the 1st trimester. RESULTS: The distribution of congenital heart anomalies in the own diabetic study population was in accordance with the distribution encountered in the literature. This distribution differed considerably from that in the nondiabetic population. Approximately half the cardiovascular defects were conotruncal anomalies. The authors' study demonstrated a remarkable increase in the likelihood of visceral heterotaxia and variants of single ventricle among these patients. As expected, elevated HbA(1c) values during the 1st trimester were associated with offspring fetal cardiovascular defects. CONCLUSION: This study shows an increased likelihood of specific heart anomalies, namely transposition of the great arteries, persistent truncus arteriosus, visceral heterotaxia and single ventricle, among offspring of diabetic mothers. This suggests a profound teratogenic effect at a very early stage in cardiogenesis. The study emphasizes the frequency with which the offspring of diabetes-complicated pregnancies suffer from complex forms of congenital heart disease. Pregnancies with poor 1st-trimester glycemic control are more prone to the presence of fetal heart disease.

Representation of motor habit in a sequence of repetitive reach and grasp movements performed by macaque monkeys: evidence for a contribution of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.

In the context of an autologous cell transplantation study, a unilateral biopsy of cortical tissue was surgically performed from the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) in two intact adult macaque monkeys (dlPFC lesioned group), together with the implantation of a chronic chamber providing access to the left motor cortex. Three other monkeys were subjected to the same chronic chamber implantation, but without dlPFC biopsy (control group). All monkeys were initially trained to perform sequential manual dexterity tasks, requiring precision grip. The motor performance and the prehension's sequence (temporal order to grasp pellets from different spatial locations) were analysed for each hand. Following the surgery, transient and moderate deficits of manual dexterity per se occurred in both groups, indicating that they were not due to the dlPFC lesion (most likely related to the recording chamber implantation and/or general anaesthesia/medication). In contrast, changes of motor habit were observed for the sequential order of grasping in the two monkeys with dlPFC lesion only. The changes were more prominent in the monkey subjected to the largest lesion, supporting the notion of a specific effect of the dlPFC lesion on the motor habit of the monkeys. These observations are reminiscent of previous studies using conditional tasks with delay that have proposed a specialization of the dlPFC for visuo-spatial working memory, except that this is in a different context of "free-will", non-conditional manual dexterity task, without a component of working memory.

Rare chromosome abnormalities, prevalence and prenatal diagnosis rates from population-based congenital anomaly registers in Europe.

The aim of this study is to quantify the prevalence and types of rare chromosome abnormalities (RCAs) in Europe for 2000-2006 inclusive, and to describe prenatal diagnosis rates and pregnancy outcome. Data held by the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies database were analysed on all the cases from 16 population-based registries in 11 European countries diagnosed prenatally or before 1 year of age, and delivered between 2000 and 2006. Cases were all unbalanced chromosome abnormalities and included live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. There were 10,323 cases with a chromosome abnormality, giving a total birth prevalence rate of 43.8/10,000 births. Of these, 7335 cases had trisomy 21,18 or 13, giving individual prevalence rates of 23.0, 5.9 and 2.3/10,000 births, respectively (53, 13 and 5% of all reported chromosome errors, respectively). In all, 473 cases (5%) had a sex chromosome trisomy, and 778 (8%) had 45,X, giving prevalence rates of 2.0 and 3.3/10,000 births, respectively. There were 1,737 RCA cases (17%), giving a prevalence of 7.4/10,000 births. These included triploidy, other trisomies, marker chromosomes, unbalanced translocations, deletions and duplications. There was a wide variation between the registers in both the overall prenatal diagnosis rate of RCA, an average of 65% (range 5-92%) and the prevalence of RCA (range 2.4-12.9/10,000 births). In all, 49% were liveborn. The data provide the prevalence of families currently requiring specialised genetic counselling services in the perinatal period for these conditions and, for some, long-term care.

Paper 2: EUROCAT public health indicators for congenital anomalies in Europe.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this article is to present the specific public health indicators recently developed by EUROCAT that aim to summarize important aspects of the public health impact of congenital anomalies in a few quantitative measures. METHODS: The six indicators are: (1) congenital anomaly perinatal mortality, (2) congenital anomaly prenatal diagnosis prevalence, (3) congenital anomaly termination of pregnancy, (4) Down syndrome livebirth prevalence, (5) congenital anomaly pediatric surgery, and (6) neural tube defects (NTD) total prevalence. Data presented for this report pertained to all cases (livebirths, fetal deaths, or stillbirths after 20 weeks of gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly [TOPFA]) of congenital anomaly from 27 full member registries of EUROCAT that could provide data for at least 3 years during the period 2004 to 2008. Prevalence of anomalies, prenatal diagnosis, TOPFA, pediatric surgery, and perinatal mortality were calculated per 1000 births. RESULTS: The overall perinatal mortality was approximately 1.0 per 1000 births for EUROCAT registries with almost half due to fetal and the other half due to first week deaths. There were wide variations in perinatal mortality across the registries with the highest rates observed in Dublin and Malta, registries in countries where TOPFA are illegal, and in Ukraine. The overall perinatal mortality across EUROCAT registries slightly decreased between 2004 and 2008 due to a decrease in first week deaths. The prevalence of TOPFA was fairly stable at about 4 per 1000 births. There were variations in livebirth prevalence of cases typically requiring surgery across the registries; however, for most registries this prevalence was between 3 and 5 per 1000 births. Prevalence of NTD decreased by about 10% from 1.05 in 2004 to 0.94 per 1000 in 2008. CONCLUSION: It is hoped that by publishing the data on EUROCAT indicators, the public health importance of congenital anomalies can be clearly summarized to policy makers, the need for accurate data from registries emphasized, the need for primary prevention and treatment services highlighted, and the impact of current services measured.

Interest Rate Co-movements, Global Factors and the Long End of the Term Spread

The disconnect between rising short and low long interest rates has been a distinctive feature of the 2000s. Both research and policy circles have argued that international forces, such as global monetary policy (e.g. Rogoff, 2006); international business cycles (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007); or a global savings glut (e.g Bernanke, 2005) may be responsible. In this paper, we employ recent advances in panel data econometrics to document the disconnect and link it explicitly to the existence of a global latent factor that dominates the long end of the term spread for the recent period; the saving glut story emerges as the most likely contender for the global factor.

Prevalence and characteristics of periodic leg movements during sleep in the general population : the Hypnolaus study

Objective: The aim of this study was to describe the prevalence and characteristics of periodic legs movements of sleep (PLMS) in theadult general population. Methods: Data from 2162 subjects (51.2% women, mean SD age:58, 11 years, range: 40.5-84.4 years) participating in a population-based cohort study (HypnoLaus, Lausanne, Switzerland) wascollected. They completed a series of sleep related questionnaires and underwent polysomnographic recordings at home. PLMS index(PLMSI) was determined according to AASM 2007 criteria. APLMSI>15/h was considered to be of potential clinical significance. Conclusions: PLMS are highly prevalent in the general population. Age, male gender and RLS are independent predictors of a PLMSIhigher than 15/h. Further studies are needed to evaluate the clinical impact of PLMS.

Colonic movements in healthy subjects as monitored by a Magnet Tracking System

Rapport de synthèse : Le Magnet Tracking System (MTS) est une technique peu invasive d'investigation de la motilité de l'entier du tube digestif. Elle repose sur le suivi de la progression d'un aimant par des senseurs externes en temps réel et dans les 3 dimensions. Dans cette étude, le MTS a été utilisé pour étudier les caractéristiques de propulsion propres aux différents segments coliques ainsi que pour comparer le transit de l'aimant permanent du MTS à celui de marqueurs radioopaques habituellement utilisés. Dix hommes et 10 femmes ayant un transit gastro-intestinal régulier ont ingéré simultanément un aimant de MTS et une capsule contenant 10 marqueurs radio-opaques, à 20h00. Les enregistrements se sont ensuite déroulés sur 2 matinées successives de 5 heures. L'analyse des données brutes recueillies a permis de réaliser une projection spatio-temporelle de la trajectoire de l'aimant dans le tube digestif ainsi qu'une description précise de l'origine, de la direction, de l'amplitude et de la vitesse des mouvements coliques. Des radiographies d'abdomen ont permis de comparer les positions respectives des marqueurs radio-opaques et de l'aimant du MTS. Durant 90% du temps d'enregistrement, l'aimant était immobile ou présentait des mouvements alternatifs de faible amplitude. Le reste des enregistrements consiste en activité propulsive dont 20% représentent des déplacements rétrogrades et une description très précise de 34 mouvements de masses. L'analyse des déplacements démontre une distribution bimodales des vitesses voisine de 1.5 et 50 cm /min, ce tant en direction orale que caudale. Deux tiers des distances parcourues le sont à vitesse rapide. L'analyse segmentaire confirme une progression horaire absolue supérieure dans le côlon gauche que droit. L'analyse détaillée par segment colique, reposant sur la description des déplacements enregistrés correspond aux rôles reconnus des différents segments, notamment de aire de stockage et de conditionnement du côlon ascendant ou de transit du côlon descendant. La comparaison des 2 sexes démontre un nombre plus important de mouvements, particulièrement de mouvements de masse chez l'homme. Les radiographies montrent une bonne corrélation entre la position de l'aimant et celle des marqueurs radio-opaques. Le MTS permet ainsi une description précise des caractéristiques propulsives des différents segments coliques, notamment par l'analyse détaillée des progressions à vitesses lente et rapide et leurs directions. Des distinctions peuvent également être notées en fonction du sexe. Ces investigations offrent de nouvelles perspectives pour l'étude des troubles de la motilité digestive.