Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle: Influence of Macro-Finance Factors

In this paper, we scrutinize the cross-sectional relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. As a novelty, the idiosyncratic volatility is obtained by conditioning upon macro-finance factors as well as upon traditional asset pricing factors. The macro-finance factors are constructed from a large pool of macroeconomic and financial variables. Cleaning for macro-finance e§ects reverses the puzzling negative relation between returns and idiosyncratic volatility documented previously. Portfolio analysis shows that the effects from macro-finance factors are economically strong. The relation between idiosyncratic volatility and returns does not vary with the NBER business cycles. The empirical results are highly robust. Keywords: Idiosyncratic volatility puzzle; Macro-finance predictors; Factor analysis; Business cycle. JEL Classifications: G12; G14

Financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility: a connectedness analysis

This paper measures the connectedness in EMU sovereign market volatility between April 1999 and January 2014, in order to monitor stress transmission and to identify episodes of intensive spillovers from one country to the others. To this end, we first perform a static and dynamic analysis to measure the total volatility connectedness in the entire period (the system-wide approach) using a framework recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2014). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate the net directional connectedness for each country and apply panel model techniques to investigate its determinants. Finally, to gain further insights, we examine the timevarying behaviour of net pair-wise directional connectedness at different stages of the recent sovereign debt crisis.

Volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets

We analyse volatility spillovers in EMU sovereign bond markets. First, we examine the unconditional patterns during the full sample (April 1999-January 2014) using a measure recently proposed by Diebold and Yılmaz (2012). Second, we make use of a dynamic analysis to evaluate net directional volatility spillovers for each of the eleven countries under study, and to determine whether core and peripheral markets present differences. Finally, we apply a panel analysis to empirically investigate the determinants of net directional spillovers of this kind.

Rocking the Euro boat: scheduled market announcements' effects on Euro implied volatility

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate scheduled market announcements’ effects on Euro implied volatility. Timeline selected for this study ranges from 2005 to 2009. The method chosen is so-called event study approach, in which five days prior to a news announcement stand for a pre-event period, and five days after the announcement form a post-event period. Statistical research method employed is Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test, which examines two evenly-sized distributions’ equality, in this case the distributions being the pre- and post-event periods. Observations are based on daily data of US dollar nominated Euro at-the-money call options. Research results partially back up previous literature’s view of uncertainty increasing prior to the news announcement. After the exact contents of the news is public, uncertainty levels measured by implied volatility tend to lower.

Effects of a Financial Transaction Tax - Do Transaction Costs Lower Volatility?: A Literature Review

In this literature review the theorethical framework of Financial transaction taxes and their assumed effect on market volatility is assessed. The empirical evidence from various studies is compared against the theory and a simple empirical review of the Finnish stock market is conducted. The findings implicate that financial transaction taxes can not reduce volatility and their actual effect on markets is dependend by many other factors as well. Some evidence even suggests that transactions taxes may actually raise volatility.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

The Impact of European Macroeconomic News Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets

The purpose of this research is to investigate how CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) stock markets are integrated with Europe as measured by the impact of euro area (EA) scheduled macroeconomic news announcements, which are related to macroeconomic indicators that are commonly used to indicate the direction of the economy. Macroeconomic announcements used in this study can be divided into four categories; (1) prices, (2) real economy, (3) money supply and (4) business climate and consumer confidence. The data set consists of daily market data from CIVETS and scheduled macroeconomic announcements from the EA for the years 2007-2012. The econometric model used in this research is Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH). Empirical results show diverse impacts of macroeconomic news releases and surprises for different categories of news supporting the perception of heterogeneity among CIVETS. The analyses revealed that in general EA macroeconomic news releases and surprises affect stock market volatility in CIVETS and only in some cases asset pricing. In conclusion, all CIVETS stock markets reacted to the incoming EA macroeconomic news suggesting market integration to some extent. Thus, EA should be considered as a possible risk factor when investing in CIVETS.

Idiosyncratic volatility around information release date

Several papers document idiosyncratic volatility is time-varying and many attempts have been made to reveal whether idiosyncratic risk is priced. This research studies behavior of idiosyncratic volatility around information release dates and also its relation with return after public announcement. The results indicate that when a company discloses specific information to the market, firm’s specific volatility level shifts and short-horizon event-induced volatility vary significantly however, the category to which the announcement belongs is not important in magnitude of change. This event-induced volatility is not small in size and should not be downplayed in event studies. Moreover, this study shows stocks with higher contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility earn lower return after public announcement consistent with “divergence of opinion hypothesis”. While no significant relation is found between EGARCH estimated idiosyncratic volatility and return and also between one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatility and return presumably due to significant jump around public announcement both may provide some signals regarding future idiosyncratic volatility through their correlations with contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility. Finally, the study show that positive relation between return and idiosyncratic volatility based on under-diversification is inadequate to explain all different scenarios and this negative relation after public announcement may provide a useful trading rule.

Contact with friction using the augmented Lagrangian Method: a conditional constrained minimization problem

This work presents a formulation of the contact with friction between elastic bodies. This is a non linear problem due to unilateral constraints (inter-penetration of bodies) and friction. The solution of this problem can be found using optimization concepts, modelling the problem as a constrained minimization problem. The Finite Element Method is used to construct approximation spaces. The minimization problem has the total potential energy of the elastic bodies as the objective function, the non-inter-penetration conditions are represented by inequality constraints, and equality constraints are used to deal with the friction. Due to the presence of two friction conditions (stick and slip), specific equality constraints are present or not according to the current condition. Since the Coulomb friction condition depends on the normal and tangential contact stresses related to the constraints of the problem, it is devised a conditional dependent constrained minimization problem. An Augmented Lagrangian Method for constrained minimization is employed to solve this problem. This method, when applied to a contact problem, presents Lagrange Multipliers which have the physical meaning of contact forces. This fact allows to check the friction condition at each iteration. These concepts make possible to devise a computational scheme which lead to good numerical results.

Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Volatility of Different Formulations of Clomazone Herbicide

Volatilization represents an important process in the displacement of pesticides for the environment. The physicochemical properties of the clomazone molecule indicate its relative volatility. Therefore, this study was carried out to assess the volatilization of different clomazone herbicide formulations using bioindicator species. To that end, airtight glass boxes were used with the presence of different clomazone formulations and plant species. The formulations used were Gamit 360 CS(r), Gamit 500 EC(r) and Gamit Star(r). The plant species assessed were maize, sorghum and rice. With the results obtained it is possible to conclude that, among the formulations, Gamit 360 CS(r) has caused less phytotoxicity to the bioindicator species in comparison to the formulations of Gamit 500 EC(r) and Gamit Star(r) formulations. In general, The Gamit 500 EC(r) and Gamit Star(r) have not differed in the phytotoxicity potential for the bioindicator species.

Comparison of Pavlovian serial conditional discrimination in rats and hamsters in the same experimental situation

The present study compares behavioral changes between two distinct rodent groups, hamsters (Mesocricetus auratus) and Wistar rats, when submitted in the same homogeneous experimental situations to a serial conditional discrimination procedure which involves water deprivation and the processing of temporal variables. Both hamsters and rats acquired serial positive conditional discrimination as indicated by higher frequencies of magazine-oriented behavior during the tone followed by reinforcement (T+) and preceded by the feature stimulus light (L) and during the empty interval, than during the tone alone not followed by reinforcement (T-). Rats' frequencies of magazine-oriented behavior were high during T+ and T-, initially during training, and decreased during T- as the training progressed. However, the hamsters' frequencies of magazine-oriented behavior started very low and increased only during T+ as the training progressed. Comparison of the frequencies of magazine-oriented behavior during the empty interval in relation to the frequencies during the preceding L period showed that rats' frequencies remained very high and hamsters' frequencies increased during training. These results suggest that rats and hamsters have different behavioral strategies for the acquisition of a conditional discrimination. The results of the comparisons made in these experiments support the view of the importance of an ecological psychology approach to the understanding of complex learning in animals.