Birthweight and the risk of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes: a meta-analysis of observational studies using individual patient data

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated whether children who are heavier at birth have an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. Methods: Relevant studies published before February 2009 were identified from literature searches using MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of all studies containing relevant data were contacted and asked to provide individual patient data or conduct pre-specified analyses. Risk estimates of type 1 diabetes by category of birthweight were calculated for each study, before and after adjustment for potential confounders. Meta-analysis techniques were then used to derive combined ORs and investigate heterogeneity between studies. Results: Data were available for 29 predominantly European studies (five cohort, 24 case-control studies), including 12,807 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, studies consistently demonstrated that children with birthweight from 3.5 to 4 kg had an increased risk of diabetes of 6% (OR 1.06 [95% CI 1.01-1.11]; p=0.02) and children with birthweight over 4 kg had an increased risk of 10% (OR 1.10 [95% CI 1.04-1.19]; p=0.003), compared with children weighing 3.0 to 3.5 kg at birth. This corresponded to a linear increase in diabetes risk of 3% per 500 g increase in birthweight (OR 1.03 [95% CI 1.00-1.06]; p=0.03). Adjustments for potential confounders such as gestational age, maternal age, birth order, Caesarean section, breastfeeding and maternal diabetes had little effect on these findings. Conclusions/interpretation: Children who are heavier at birth have a significant and consistent, but relatively small increase in risk of type 1 diabetes. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.


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Dietary patterns and breast cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Dietary patterns, which represent whole-diet and possible food and nutrient interactions, have been linked to the risk of various cancers. However, the associations of these dietary patterns with breast cancer remain unclear. Objective: We critically appraised the literature and conducted meta-analyses to pool the results of studies to clarify the relation between dietary patterns and breast cancer risk.
Design: MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for relevant articles that identified common dietary patterns published up to November 2009. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) comparing highest and lowest categories of dietary pattern scores and multi-variable-adjusted ORs for a 20th-percentile increase in dietary pattern scores were combined by using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Case-control and cohort studies were retrieved that identified prudent/healthy (n = 18), Western/unhealthy (n = 17), and drinker (n = 4) dietary patterns. There was evidence of a decrease in the risk of breast cancer in the highest compared with the lowest categories of prudent/healthy dietary patterns (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.99; P = 0.02) in all studies and in pooled cohort studies alone. An increase in the risk of breast cancer was shown for the highest compared with the lowest categories of a drinker dietary pattern (OR = 1.21; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.41; P = 0.01). There was no evidence of a difference in the risk of breast cancer between the highest and the lowest categories of Western/unhealthy dietary patterns (OR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.22; P = 0.12). Conclusion: The results of this systematic review and meta-analysis indicate that some dietary patterns may be associated with breast cancer risk.

Inflammation markers are associated with Cardiovascular diseases risk in adolescents The Young Hearts Project 2000

Purose: The traditional approach for identifying subjects at risk from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is to determine the extent of clustering of biological risk factors adjusted for lifestyle. Recently, markers of endothelial dysfunction and low grade inflammation, including high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), soluble intercellular adhesion molecules (sICAM), and soluble vascular adhesion molecules (sVCAM), have been included in the detection for high risk individuals. However, the relationship of these novel biomarkers with CVD risk in adolescents remains unclear. The purpose of this study, therefore, was to establish the association of hsCRP, sICAM, and sVCAM with CVD risk in an adolescent population.
Methods: Data from the Young Hearts 2000 cross-sectional cohort study, carried out in 1999-2001, were used. From a total of 2,017 male and female participants, 95 obese subjects were identified and matched according to age, sex, and cigarette smoking, with 95 overweight and 95 normal-weight adolescents. Clustered CVD risk was computed using a sum of Z-scores of biological risk factors. The relationship was described using multiple linear regression analyses.
Results: hsCRP, sICAM, and sVCAM showed significant associations with CVD risk. hsCRP and sICAM had a positive relation with CVD risk, whereas sVCAM showed an inverse relationship. In this study, lifestyle factors showed no relation with CVD risk.
Conclusion: The results fit the hypothesized role of low grade inflammation and endothelial dysfunction in CVD risk in asymptomatic adolescents. The inverse relationship of VCAM, however, is hard to explain and indicates the complex mechanisms underlying CVD. Further research is needed to draw firm conclusions on the biomarkers used.

Managing Risk: From Regulation to the Reintegration of Sexual Offenders

In the last number of years the management of the dangerous in the community, particularly sex offenders, has generated enormous concern. This concern has been reflected at a number of different levels - in media and popular responses to the risk posed by released sex offenders in the community and in official discourses where an abundance of legislation and policy reforms have been enacted within a relatively short period of time. This analysis seeks to critically evaluate these developments within the context of contemporary criminal justice policy and practice in relation to the management of sex offenders in the community. The article analyses the contemporary focus on risk management or preventative governance which underpins the current regulatory framework and has been reflected in both the sentencing options and in control in the community initiatives for sex offenders. In this respect, the article highlights the gap between policy and practice in terms of the effective risk management of sex offenders. Given the failure of the traditional justice system with respect to these types of offences, it will be argued that the retributive framework could usefully be supplemented by the theory and practice of reintegrative or restorative community justice, and public education in particular, in order to better manage the risk presented by sex offenders in the community.

Birth order and childhood type 1 diabetes risk: A pooled analysis of 31 observational studies

Background: The incidence rates of childhood onset type 1 diabetes are almost universally increasing across the globe but the aetiology of the disease remains largely unknown. We investigated whether birth order is associated with the risk of childhood diabetes by performing a pooled analysis of previous studies. Methods: Relevant studies published before January 2010 were identified from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE. Authors of studies provided individual patient data or conducted pre-specified analyses. Meta-analysis techniques were used to derive combined odds ratios (ORs), before and after adjustment for confounders, and investigate heterogeneity. Results: Data were available for 6 cohort and 25 case-control studies, including 11 955 cases of type 1 diabetes. Overall, there was no evidence of an association prior to adjustment for confounders. After adjustment for maternal age at birth and other confounders, a reduction in the risk of diabetes in second-or later born children became apparent [fully adjusted OR=0.90 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-0.98; P=0.02] but this association varied markedly between studies (I 2=67%). An a priori subgroup analysis showed that the association was stronger and more consistent in children <5years of age (n=25 studies, maternal age adjusted OR=0.84 95% CI 0.75, 0.93; I 2=23%). Conclusion: Although the association varied between studies, there was some evidence of a lower risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes with increasing birth order, particularly in children aged <5 years. This finding could reflect increased exposure to infections in early life in later born children. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2010; all rights reserved.

Proton pump inhibitors and histamine-2-receptor antagonists and pancreatic cancer risk: a nested case-control study

Background: The relationship between use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and histamine-2-receptor antagonists (H₂RAs) and pancreatic cancer risk has yet to be examined. Data from a range of studies suggest biologically plausible mechanisms, whereby these drugs (or the conditions for which they are prescribed) may affect pancreatic cancer risk. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between use of PPIs/H₂RAs and pancreatic cancer risk.

Methods: A nested case – control study was conducted within the UK general practice research database (GPRD). Cases had a diagnosis of exocrine pancreatic cancer and controls were matched to cases on general practice site, sex and year of birth. Exposure to PPIs and to H₂RAs since entry into GPRD until 2 years before the diagnosis date (corresponding date in controls) and in the 5 years before the diagnosis date were separately assessed. Conditional logistic regression analyses were used to generate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with PPI or H₂RA use compared with nonuse.

Results: Ever use of PPIs since entry into the GPRD (excluding the 2 years prior to diagnosis) was not associated with risk of pancreatic cancer; OR (95% CI) 1.02 (0.85 – 1.22). Neither the dose nor the duration of PPI or H₂RA use was associated with pancreatic cancer risk. No consistent patterns of association were seen when cumulative exposure (dose and duration) to these drugs was examined separately or together.

Conclusion: PPI/H₂RA use, in a UK population, was not associated with pancreatic cancer risk.

Comparisons between different polychemotherapy regimens for early breast cancer: meta-analyses of long-term outcome among 100,000 women in 123 randomised trials

Background Moderate di?erences in e?cacy between adjuvant chemotherapy regimens for breast cancer are plausible, and could a? ect treatment choices. We sought any such di?erences.

Methods We undertook individual-patient-data meta-analyses of the randomised trials comparing: any taxane-plusanthracycline-based regimen versus the same, or more, non-taxane chemotherapy (n=44 000); one anthracyclinebased regimen versus another (n=7000) or versus cyclo phosphamide, methotrexate, and ?uorouracil (CMF; n=18 000); and polychemotherapy versus no chemotherapy (n=32 000). The scheduled dosages of these three drugs and of the anthracyclines doxorubicin (A) and epirubicin (E) were used to de? ne standard CMF, standard 4AC, and CAF and CEF. Log-rank breast cancer mortality rate ratios (RRs) are reported.

Findings In trials adding four separate cycles of a taxane to a ?xed anthracycline-based control regimen, extending treatment duration, breast cancer mortality was reduced (RR 0·86, SE 0·04, two-sided signi?cance [2p]=0·0005). In trials with four such extra cycles of a taxane counterbalanced in controls by extra cycles of other cytotoxic drugs, roughly doubling non-taxane dosage, there was no signi?cant di?erence (RR 0·94, SE 0·06, 2p=0·33). Trials with CMF-treated controls showed that standard 4AC and standard CMF were equivalent (RR 0·98, SE 0·05, 2p=0·67), but that anthracycline-based regimens with substantially higher cumulative dosage than standard 4AC (eg, CAF or CEF) were superior to standard CMF (RR 0·78, SE 0·06, 2p=0·0004). Trials versus no chemotherapy also suggested greater mortality reductions with CAF (RR 0·64, SE 0·09, 2p<0·0001) than with standard 4AC (RR 0·78, SE 0·09, 2p=0·01) or
standard CMF (RR 0·76, SE 0·05, 2p<0·0001). In all meta-analyses involving taxane-based or anthracycline-based regimens, proportional risk reductions were little a? ected by age, nodal status, tumour diameter or di?erentiation (moderate or poor; few were well di?erentiated), oestrogen receptor status, or tamoxifen use. Hence, largely independently of age (up to at least 70 years) or the tumour characteristics currently available to us for the patients selected to be in these trials, some taxane-plus-anthracycline-based or higher-cumulative-dosage anthracycline-based regimens (not requiring stem cells) reduced breast cancer mortality by, on average, about one-third. 10-year overall mortality di?erences paralleled breast cancer mortality di?erences, despite taxane, anthracycline, and other toxicities.

Interpretation 10-year gains from a one-third breast cancer mortality reduction depend on absolute risks without chemotherapy (which, for oestrogen-receptor-positive disease, are the risks remaining with appropriate endocrine therapy). Low absolute risk implies low absolute bene?t, but information was lacking about tumour gene expression markers or quantitative immunohistochemistry that might help to predict risk, chemosensitivity, or both.

New prognostic markers, determined using gene expression analyses, reveal two distinct subtypes of chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia patients

Chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia (CMML) is a heterogeneous haematopoietic disorder characterized by myeloproliferative or myelodysplastic features. At present, the pathogenesis of this malignancy is not completely understood. In this study, we sought to analyse gene expression profiles of CMML in order to characterize new molecular outcome predictors. A learning set of 32 untreated CMML patients at diagnosis was available for TaqMan low-density array gene expression analysis. From 93 selected genes related to cancer and cell cycle, we built a five-gene prognostic index after multiplicity correction. Using this index, we characterized two categories of patients with distinct overall survival (94% vs. 19% for good and poor overall survival, respectively; P = 0.007) and we successfully validated its strength on an independent cohort of 21 CMML patients with Affymetrix gene expression data. We found no specific patterns of association with traditional prognostic stratification parameters in the learning cohort. However, the poor survival group strongly correlated with high-risk treated patients and transformation to acute myeloid leukaemia. We report here a new multigene prognostic index for CMML, independent of the gene expression measurement method, which could be used as a powerful tool to predict clinical outcome and help physicians to evaluate criteria for treatments.

The effect of sperm DNA fragmentation on miscarriage rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis

STUDY QUESTION Is there an association between high levels of sperm DNA damage and miscarriage?SUMMARY ANSWERMiscarriage rates are positively correlated with sperm DNA damage levels.WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADYMost ejaculates contain a subpopulation of sperm with DNA damage, also referred to as DNA fragmentation, in the form of double or single-strand breaks which have been induced in the DNA prior to or following ejaculation. This DNA damage may be particularly elevated in some subfertile men, hence several studies have examined the link between sperm DNA damage levels and conception and miscarriage rates.STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATIONA systematic review and meta-analysis of studies which examined the effect of sperm DNA damage on miscarriage rates was performed. Searches were conducted on MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library without any language restrictions from database inception to January 2012.PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODSWe used the terms 'DNA damage' or 'DNA fragmentation' combined with 'miscarriage', 'abortion' or 'pregnancy' to generate a set of relevant citations. Data extraction was performed by two reviewers. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Meta-analysis of relative risks of miscarriage was performed with a random effects model. Subgroup analyses were performed by the type of DNA damage test, whether the sperm examined were prepared or from raw semen and for pregnancies resulting from IVF or ICSI treatment.MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCEWe identified 16 cohort studies (2969 couples), 14 of which were prospective. Eight studies used acridine orange-based assays, six the TUNEL assay and two the COMET assay. Meta-analysis showed a significant increase in miscarriage in patients with high DNA damage compared with those with low DNA damage [risk ratio (RR) = 2.16 (1.54, 3.03), P <0.00001)]. A subgroup analysis showed that the miscarriage association is strongest for the TUNEL assay (RR = 3.94 (2.45, 6.32), P <0.00001).LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTIONThere is some variation in study characteristics, including the use of different assays and different thresholds for DNA damage and the definition of pregnancy loss.WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGSThe use of methods which select sperm without DNA damage for use in assisted conception treatment may reduce the risk of miscarriage. This finding indicates that assays detecting DNA damage could be considered in those suffering from recurrent pregnancy loss. Further research is necessary to study the mechanisms of DNA damage and the potential therapeutic effects of antioxidant therapy.STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)None.

Job strain as a risk factor for coronary heart disease:a collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND: Published work assessing psychosocial stress (job strain) as a risk factor for coronary heart disease is inconsistent and subject to publication bias and reverse causation bias. We analysed the relation between job strain and coronary heart disease with a meta-analysis of published and unpublished studies. METHODS: We used individual records from 13 European cohort studies (1985-2006) of men and women without coronary heart disease who were employed at time of baseline assessment. We measured job strain with questions from validated job-content and demand-control questionnaires. We extracted data in two stages such that acquisition and harmonisation of job strain measure and covariables occurred before linkage to records for coronary heart disease. We defined incident coronary heart disease as the first non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death. FINDINGS: 30?214 (15%) of 197?473 participants reported job strain. In 1·49 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 7·5 years [SD 1·7]), we recorded 2358 events of incident coronary heart disease. After adjustment for sex and age, the hazard ratio for job strain versus no job strain was 1·23 (95% CI 1·10-1·37). This effect estimate was higher in published (1·43, 1·15-1·77) than unpublished (1·16, 1·02-1·32) studies. Hazard ratios were likewise raised in analyses addressing reverse causality by exclusion of events of coronary heart disease that occurred in the first 3 years (1·31, 1·15-1·48) and 5 years (1·30, 1·13-1·50) of follow-up. We noted an association between job strain and coronary heart disease for sex, age groups, socioeconomic strata, and region, and after adjustments for socioeconomic status, and lifestyle and conventional risk factors. The population attributable risk for job strain was 3·4%. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that prevention of workplace stress might decrease disease incidence; however, this strategy would have a much smaller effect than would tackling of standard risk factors, such as smoking. FUNDING: Finnish Work Environment Fund, the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council for Working Life and Social Research, the German Social Accident Insurance, the Danish National Research Centre for the Working Environment, the BUPA Foundation, the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, the Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, and the US National Institutes of Health.

Plasma HDL cholesterol and risk of myocardial infarction: A mendelian randomisation study

Background: High plasma HDL cholesterol is associated with reduced risk of myocardial infarction, but whether this association is causal is unclear. Exploiting the fact that genotypes are randomly assigned at meiosis, are independent of non-genetic confounding, and are unmodified by disease processes, mendelian random isation can be used to test the hypothesis that the association of a plasma biomarker with disease is causal.
Methods: We performed two mendelian randomisation analyses. First, we used as an instrument a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the endothelial lipase gene (LIPG Asn396Ser) and tested this SNP in 20 studies (20 913 myocardial infarction cases, 95 407 controls). Second, we used as an instrument a genetic score consisting of 14 common SNPs that exclusively associate with HDL cholesterol and tested this score in up to 12 482 cases of myocardial infarction and 41 331 controls. As a positive control, we also tested a genetic score of 13 common SNPs exclusively associated with LDL cholesterol.
Findings: Carriers of the LIPG 396Ser allele (2·6% frequency) had higher HDL cholesterol (0·14 mmol/L higher p=8×10-13) but similar levels of other lipid and non-lipid risk factors for myocardial infarction compared with noncarriers. This difference in HDL cholesterol is expected to decrease risk of myocardial infarction by 13% (odds ratio [OR] 0·87, 95% CI 0·84-0·91). However, we noted that the 396Ser allele was not associated with risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·99, 95% CI 0·88-1·11, p=0·85). From observational epidemiology, an increase of 1 SD in HDL cholesterol was associated with reduced risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·62, 95% CI 0·58-0·66). However, a 1 SD increase in HDL cholesterol due to genetic score was not associated with risk of myocardial infarction (OR 0·93 95% CI 0·68-1·26, p=0·63). For LDL cholesterol, the estimate from observational epidemiology (a 1 SD increase in LDL cholesterol associated with OR 1·54, 95% CI 1·45-1·63) was concordant with that from genetic score (OR 2·13 95% CI 1·69-2·69, p=2×10 -10).
Interpretation: Some genetic mechanisms that raise plasma HDL cholesterol do not seem to lower risk of myocardial infarction. These data challenge the concept that raising of plasma HDL cholesterol will uniformly translate into reductions in risk of myocardial infarction.

A multi-center study of ACE and the risk of late-onset Alzheimer's disease

A key pathological feature of late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) is the abnormal extracellular accumulation of the amyloid-ß (Aß) peptide. Thus, altered Aß degradation could be a major contributor to the development of LOAD. Variants in the gene encoding the Aß-degrading enzyme, angiotensin-1 converting enzyme (ACE) therefore represent plausible candidates for association with LOAD pathology and risk. Following Alzgene meta-analyses of all published case-control studies, the ACE variants rs4291 and rs1800764 showed significant association with LOAD risk. Furthermore ACE haplotypes are associated with both plasma ACE levels and LOAD risk. We tested three ACE variants (rs4291, rs4343, and rs1800764) for association with LOAD in ten Caucasian case-control populations (n = 8,212). No association was found using multiple logistic models (all p > 0.09). We found no population heterogeneity (all p > 0.38) or evidence for association with LOAD risk following meta-analysis of the ten populations for rs4343 (OR = 1.00), rs4291 (OR = 0.97), or rs1800764 (OR = 0.99). Although we found no haplotypic association in our complete dataset (p = 0.51), a significant global haplotypic p-value was observed in one population (p = 0.007) due to an association of the H3 haplotype (OR = 0.72, p = 0.02) and a trend towards an association of H4 (OR = 1.38, p = 0.09) and H7 (OR = 2.07, p = 0.08) although these did not survive Bonferroni correction. Previously reported associations of ACE variants with LOAD will be diminished following this study. At best, ACE variants have modest effect sizes, which are likely part of a complex interaction between genetic, phenotypic and pharmacological effects that would be undetected in traditional case-control studies.

Adiponectin multimers, body weight and markers of cardiovascular risk in adolescence: Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project:Northern Ireland Young Hearts Project

Background:Research examining the relationship between adiponectin (AN) isoforms, body weight and cardiovascular (CV) risk factors is limited, particularly in younger populations. Objectives:To investigate the inter-relationships between AN isoforms and CV risk factors, and their dependence on body weight status, in adolescents. Design:Blood samples from 92 obese, 92 overweight and 92 normal weight age- and sex-matched adolescents were analysed for traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk biomarkers and also total, high molecular weight (HMW), medium and low molecular weight (LMW) AN. Results:A significant inverse association was observed between total and HMW AN and waist-hip ratio (P=0.015, P=0.006, respectively), triglycerides (P=0.003, P=0.003, respectively) and systolic blood pressure (P=0.012, P=0.024, respectively) and a significant positive association with high-density lipoprotein (P<0.001, P<0.001, respectively) in multi-adjusted analyses. There was no evidence of a relationship between multimeric AN and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. There was also little evidence of a relationship between LMW AN and CVD risk factors. There was a strong, body mass index (BMI)-independent, association between AN, CVD biomarkers and the hypertriglyceridemic waist phenotype. Conclusion:Prominent, BMI-independent associations between total and HMW AN, but not LMW AN, and CVD risk factors were already evident in this young population. This research in adolescents supports the contention that AN subfractions may have different biological actions. These associations in apparently healthy adolescents suggest an important role for AN and its subfractions in the pathogenesis of metabolic syndrome traits and indicate that the potential for total or HMW AN to act as early universal biomarkers of CV risk warrants further study.

Refining Risk Estimates Using Models (Chapter 4)

In 2004 nineteen scientists from fourteen institutions in seven countries
collaborated in the landmark study described in chapter 2 (Thomas et al., 2004a). This chapter provides an overview of results of studies published subsequently and assesses how much, and why, new results differ from those of Thomas et al.
Some species distribution modeling (SDM) studies are directly comparable to the Thomas et al. estimates. Others using somewhat different methods nonetheless illuminate whether the original estimates were of the right order of magnitude. Climate similarity models (Williams et al., 2007; Williams and Jackson, 2007), biome, and vegetation dynamic models (Perry and Enright, 2006) have also been
applied in the context of climate change, providing interesting opportunities
for comparison and cross-validation with results from SDMs.
This chapter concludes with an assessment of whether the range of extinction risk estimates presented in 2004 can be narrowed, and whether the mean estimate should be revised upward or downward. To set the stage for these analyses, the chapter begins with brief reviews of advances in climate modeling and species modeling since 2004.

Collectives of diagnostic biomarkers identify high-risk subpopulations of hematuria patients: exploiting heterogeneity in large-scale biomarker data

Background: Ineffective risk stratification can delay diagnosis of serious disease in patients with hematuria. We applied a systems biology approach to analyze clinical, demographic and biomarker measurements (n = 29) collected from 157 hematuric patients: 80 urothelial cancer (UC) and 77 controls with confounding pathologies.

Methods: On the basis of biomarkers, we conducted agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify patient and biomarker clusters. We then explored the relationship between the patient clusters and clinical characteristics using Chi-square analyses. We determined classification errors and areas under the receiver operating curve of Random Forest Classifiers (RFC) for patient subpopulations using the biomarker clusters to reduce the dimensionality of the data.

Results: Agglomerative clustering identified five patient clusters and seven biomarker clusters. Final diagnoses categories were non-randomly distributed across the five patient clusters. In addition, two of the patient clusters were enriched with patients with ‘low cancer-risk’ characteristics. The biomarkers which contributed to the diagnostic classifiers for these two patient clusters were similar. In contrast, three of the patient clusters were significantly enriched with patients harboring ‘high cancer-risk” characteristics including proteinuria, aggressive pathological stage and grade, and malignant cytology. Patients in these three clusters included controls, that is, patients with other serious disease and patients with cancers other than UC. Biomarkers which contributed to the diagnostic classifiers for the largest ‘high cancer- risk’ cluster were different than those contributing to the classifiers for the ‘low cancer-risk’ clusters. Biomarkers which contributed to subpopulations that were split according to smoking status, gender and medication were different.

Conclusions: The systems biology approach applied in this study allowed the hematuric patients to cluster naturally on the basis of the heterogeneity within their biomarker data, into five distinct risk subpopulations. Our findings highlight an approach with the promise to unlock the potential of biomarkers. This will be especially valuable in the field of diagnostic bladder cancer where biomarkers are urgently required. Clinicians could interpret risk classification scores in the context of clinical parameters at the time of triage. This could reduce cystoscopies and enable priority diagnosis of aggressive diseases, leading to improved patient outcomes at reduced costs. © 2013 Emmert-Streib et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.