914 resultados para Community-level effects
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A survey of the carrion fauna was made at two sites in Curitiba, State of Paraná, with the objective of describing the insects associated with carrion and setting up a preliminary data-base for medico-legal purposes in south Brazil. Vertebrate exclusion experiments were carried out in each season between 1994 and 1995 with a 250 g laboratory-bred rat (Rattus norvegicus). Five stages of decomposition were identified: fresh, bloated, decaying, dry and adipocere-like. Some species showed seasonal and site preference and so could be used to identify the probable place and season where death took place. Sarconesia chlorogaster (Diptera, Calliphoridae) was restricted to an open field site and to cooler months. Hemilucilia semidiaphana (Diptera, Calliphoridae) and Pattonella resona (Diptera, Sarcophagidae) were restricted to the forest site and warmer months. Phaenicia eximia (Diptera, Calliphoridae) and Oxyletrum discicolle (Coleoptera, Silphidae) were present at both sites throughout the year and could be useful for population level analysis. Dissochaetus murray (Coleoptera, Cholevidae) was present throughout the year at the forest site and was associated with the adipocere-like stage. Ants played an important role producing post-mortem injuries to the carcasses. Insects of 32 species are reported as being useful in community level approaches
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The findings of a Public Health Agency evaluation report on a suicide prevention training programme were today presented at the North South Ministerial Council Health Sector meeting.ASIST, The Applied Suicide Intervention Skills Training programme, has to date been delivered to more than 20,000 people in the Republic of Ireland and more than 11,000 people in Northern Ireland. This two day course, delivered by a wide range of organisations including those from the voluntary/community sector, for professionals and the public helps individuals provide emergency help to people at risk of suicidal behaviour. It also develops a cooperative network among participants, since often many people have to work together to prevent suicide.Talking about the findings of this work, Dr Eddie Rooney, Chief Executive, PHA, said: "Both the PHA and the National Office for Suicide Prevention (NOSP), based in the Republic of Ireland, are concerned for any loss of life through suicide and we send our condolences to all families who have been bereaved. We know ASIST training brings a positive element to suicide prevention. Those who have been trained said that the two biggest advantages are that they know when, how and have the confidence to help people who are under pressure and that it helps to build positive links between community and voluntary organisations and the health service. I am pleased that this has been borne out in the evaluation and we hope ASIST will continue to be of enormous benefit and will contribute to a reduction in suicidal behaviour and the tragedy that this brings to our community".This evaluation found that within organisations where staff had participated in ASIST training, there were improvements in service development; staff attitudes, confidence and skills in relation to suicide and suicide intervention and in policies and procedures. At a community level, ASIST was found to have contributed to a sense of empowerment through an increased confidence in being able to deal with suicide and suicidal behaviour.The report also shows that the ASIST model offers a common language, helping communication between the community or voluntary organisations and those from a health background. In fact this training helped to cancel out any differences between those with mental health qualifications and those without, in terms of knowledge, skills, attitude and willingness to intervene. The study also confirmed that ASIST training was most relevant to those who were likely to be in contact with a person 'at risk'.In welcoming the publication of the report Geoff Day, Director of the NOSP, said: "This report is an independent evaluation of the ASIST programme, it has allowed us to demonstrate the effectiveness of the programme in increasing community participants confidence and ability to respond to individuals in suicidal crisis.He added: "The fact the evaluation was completed on an all-island basis allows the NOSP and the PHA to avoid duplication of resources, improve coordination of suicide prevention training programmes across both jurisdictions and allows us to learn from different approaches used in suicide prevention across the island of Ireland."He reiterated the Health Service Executive commitment to the continued implementation of quality assured training programmes as part of Reach out: the National Strategy for Action on Suicide Prevention.ASIST training is being rolled out in Northern Ireland as part of the implementation of the 'Protect Life' suicide prevention strategy, which was published by the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety in 2006.A copy of the evaluation report can be found below and in the publications section of this website, by clicking here
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As we face a difficult economic climate, in which inequalities may worsen, the PHA faces many challenges in its efforts to improve the health of the population. One such challenge is the issue of obesity. Recently, in the Draft Programme for Government and, again today, in anticipation of the publication of the Consultation on the Review of Health and Social Care Services in Northern Ireland, the specific issue of obesity has been highlighted in the media.The PHA is committed to playing a lead role in tackling this major health issue and has been systematically examining the evidence of best practice and effectiveness to ensure that investment and working in partnership will bring clear benefits. A welcome consequence of any success would be a reduction in the impact of the physical, and emotional costs of obesity related ill-health to individuals - and the financial costs to an overstretched healthcare system.A multi-facetted approach to tackling obesity is required for Northern Ireland. This will mean working across government departments, looking at relevant legislation, taxation, food standards and labelling, as well as supporting a raft of programmes within education, workplace, and at the local community level."The prevalence of overweight and obesity has risen dramatically in recent years in Northern Ireland and is now the norm to be overweight, rather than the exception. The Northern Ireland Health and Social Wellbeing Survey (2010-11) indicated that 36% of adults are overweight and a further 23% are obese; this means that approximately 3 in 5 adults in Northern Ireland carry excess weight. A similar proportion of males and females were obese (23%) however males were more likely to be overweight (44%) than females (30%).Data from the Northern Ireland Health and Wellbeing Survey (2010-11) reported that 27% of children aged 2-15 years are obese or overweight. The findings presented here are based on the guidelines put forward by the International Obesity Task Force. Using this approach, 8% of children were assessed as obese, with similar results for boys (8%) and girls (9%). Obesity has serious implications for health and wellbeing and is associated with an increased risk of heart disease and stroke, type 2 diabetes, some cancers, respiratory problems and joint pain.Evidence indicates that being obese can reduce life expectancy by up to 9 years; and it can impact on emotional and psychological well-being and self-esteem, especially among young people.Obesity also impacts on wider society through economic costs, loss of productivity and increased demands on our health and social care system. It is estimated that obesity in Northern Ireland is resulting in 260,000 working days lost each year with a cost to the local economy of £500 million.The good news is that the intentional loss of significant weight (approx 10kg) in overweight and obese adults has been shown to confer significant health benefits, decreased morbidity and may also reduce obesity-related mortality.Key programmes and interventions are undertaken by the PHA in order to prevent and reduce overweight and obesity. The programmes/interventions are supported by significant ongoing work at local level. Examples include:the promotion of breastfeeding; local programmes to increase awareness of good nutrition and develop cooking skills, for example 'Cook It!'; promotion of more active lifestyles, for example, Walking for Health' and 'Teenage Kicks'; development of community allotment schemes; programmes for primary school children, for example Skip2bfit and Eat, Taste and Grow; and sports and other recreation, for example 'Active Belfast'. The PHA's multi media campaign 'It all adds up!' to encourage children to become more active and understand the importance of keeping fit, in a fun and exciting way, ran until October 2011. It encouraged parents and carers to go to the website www.getalifegetactive.com and download the PHA logbook It all adds up! to plan activities as a family. The logbook helped children and parents plan and keep track of their participation in physical activity at school, home and in the community. PHA is currently developing a public information campaign and other supportive work to increase public awareness of obesity as well as to provide advice and support for those who want to make real changes. The campaign development is well underway and is anticipated for launch in late Spring 2012. Like many common health problems, people living in disadvantaged circumstances suffer most and the PHA is committed to tackling this aspect of health inequality. The good news is that even a modest weight loss, of 1-1 Â_ stones, can help to reduce the risk of many of the health problems resulting from being overweight or obese. Information on losing weight through healthier eating and being more active can be found on the PHA websites - www.enjoyhealthyeating.info and www.getalifegetactive.com . These websites provide help and advice for anyone who wants to improve their eating habits and fitness levels, by making small, sustainable, healthy changes to their lifestyle. The PHA leaflet, Small changes, big benefits is also available to download from the PHA website, 'Publications' section.
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Leprosy in children is correlated with community-level factors, including the recent presence of disease and active foci of transmission in the community. We performed clinical and serological examinations of 1,592 randomly selected school children (SC) in a cross-sectional study of eight hyperendemic municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon Region. Sixty-three (4%) SC, with a mean age of 13.3 years (standard deviation = 2.6), were diagnosed with leprosy and 777 (48.8%) were seropositive for anti-phenolic glycolipid-I (PGL-I). Additionally, we evaluated 256 house-hold contacts (HHCs) of the students diagnosed with leprosy; 24 (9.4%) HHC were also diagnosed with leprosy and 107 (41.8%) were seropositive. The seroprevalence of anti-PGL-I was significantly higher amongst girls, students from urban areas and students from public schools (p < 0.0001). Forty-five (71.4%) new cases detected amongst SC were classified as paucibacillary and 59 (93.6%) patients did not demonstrate any degree of physical disability at diagnosis. The results of this study suggest that there is a high rate of undiagnosed leprosy and subclinical infection amongst children in the Amazon Region. The advantages of school surveys in hyperendemic areas include identifying leprosy patients at an early stage when they show no physical disabilities, preventing the spread of the infection in the community and breaking the chain of transmission.
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Cape Verde is a tropical oceanic ecosystem, highly fragmented and dispersed, with islands physically isolated by distance and depth. To understand how isolation affects the ecological variability in this archipelago, we conducted a research project on the community structure of the 18 commercially most important demersal fishes. An index of ecological distance based on species relative dominance (Di) is developed from Catch Per Unit Effort, derived from an extensive database of artisanal fisheries. Two ecological measures of distance between islands are calculated: at the species level, DDi, and at the community level, DD (sum of DDi). A physical isolation factor (Idb) combining distance (d) and bathymetry (b) is proposed. Covariance analysis shows that isolation factor is positively correlated with both DDi and DD, suggesting that Idb can be considered as an ecological isolation factor. The effect of Idb varies with season and species. This effect is stronger in summer (May to November), than in winter (December to April), which appears to be more unstable. Species react differently to Idb, independently of season. A principal component analysis on the monthly (DDi) for the 12 islands and the 18 species, complemented by an agglomerative hierarchical clustering, shows a geographic pattern of island organization, according to Idb. Results indicate that the ecological structure of demersal fish communities of Cape Verde archipelago, both in time and space, can be explained by a geographic isolation factor. The analytical approach used here is promising and could be tested in other archipelago systems.
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Abstract Arbuscular Mycorhizal Fungi (AMF) are important plant symbionts that can improve floristic diversity and ecosystem productivity. These important fungi are obligate biotrophs and form symbioses with roots of the majority of plant species, improving plant nutrient acquisition in exchange of photosynthates. AM fungi are successful both ecologically as they occupy a very large spectrum of environments as well as host range and evolutionarily, as this symbiosis is over 400 million years old. These fungi grow and reproduce clonally by hyphae and multinucleate spores. AMF are coenocytic and recent work has shown that they harbor genetically different nuclei and that AMF populations are genetically diverse. How AMF species diversity is maintained has been addressed theoretically and experimentally at the community level. Much less attention has been drawn to understand how genetic diversity is maintained within populations although closely related individuals are more likely to compete for the same resources and occupy similar niches. How infra-individual genetic diversity is shaped and maintained has received even less attention. In Chapter 2, we show that individuals from a field population may differ in their symbiotic efficiency under reduced phosphate availability: We show there is genetic variation in an AMF field population for fitness-related growth traits in response to different phosphate availability acid host species. Furthermore, AFLP fingerprints of the same individuals growing in contrasting environments diverged suggesting that the composition in nuclei of AMF is dynamical and affected by environmental factors. Thus environmental heterogeneity is likely to play an important role for the maintenance of genetic diversity at the population level. In Chapter 3 we show that single spores do not inherit necessarily the same genetic material. We have found genetic divergences using two different types of molecular marker, as well as phenotypic divergences among single spore lines. Our results stress the importance of considering these organisms as a multilevel hierarchical system and of better knowing their life cycle. They have important consequences for the understanding of AMF genetics, ecology and the development of commercial AMF inocculum. Résumé Les champignons endomycorhiziens arbusculaires (CEA) sont d'importants symbiontes pour les plantes, car ils augmentent la diversité et la productivité des écosystèmes. Ces importants symbiontes sont des biotrophes obligatoires et forment une symbiose avec la plupart des plantes terrestres. Ils améliorent l'acquisition de substances nutritives de leurs hôtes en échange de sucres obtenus par photosynthèse. Ces champignons ont un grand succès écologique, ils colonisent une grande rangée d'environnements ainsi que d'hôtes. Ils ont aussi un succès évolutif certain de part le fait que cette symbiose existe depuis plus de 400 millions d'années. Les CEA sont asexués et croissent clonalement en formant des hyphes et des spores multinuclées. Les CEA sont des coenocytes et des travaux de recherche récents ont montré qu'ils possèdent des noyaux génétiquement différents. D'autres travaux ont aussi révélé que les populations de CEA sont génétiquement diversifiées. Comment la diversité des CEA est maintenue a seulement été adressée par des études théoriques et expérimentalement au niveau des communautés. Très peu d'attention a été portée sur le maintien de la diversité génétique infra et inter populationnelle, or ce sont les individus les plus proches génétiquement qui vont entrer en compétition pour des ressources et niches similaires. La formation et le maintien de la diversité intra-individu des CEA a reçu très peu d'attention. Dans le chapitre 2, nous montrons que des individus CEA d'un même champ différent dans leur efficacité symbiotique lorsque la concentration en phosphoré est réduite. Nous montrons qu'il existe de la variance génétique dans une population de CEA provenant d'un même champ en réponse à différentes concentrations de phosphore, ainsi qu'en réponse à différentes espèces d'hôtes, et ceci pour des traits de croissance vraisemblablement liés au succès reproducteur. De plus grâce à des AFLP nous avons pu montrer que le génome de ces individus subissent des changements lorsqu'ils croissent dans des environnements contrastés. Ceci suggère que les noyaux génétiquement différents des CEA sont des entités dynamiques. Il est fort probable que l'hétérogénéité environnementale joue un rôle dans le maintien de la diversité génétique des populations de CEA. Dans le chapitre 3, nous montrons que toutes les spores d'un même mycélium parental de CEA ne reçoivent pas exactement le même contenu génétique. Nous avons mis en évidence des divergences entre des Lignées monosporales en utilisant deux types de marqueur moléculaires, ainsi que des différences phénotypiques. Nos résutats soulignent l'importance de considézer ces organismes comme dés systëmes hiérarchiques mufti-niveaux, ainsi que de mieux connaître leur cycle de vie. Nos résultats ont d'importantes conséquences pour la compréhension du système génétique des CEA, ainsi que de leur évolution, leur écológie, mais également des conséquences pour la production d' inoccultim commercial.
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Les différents pays membres de l'UE connaissent des politiques dites de « conciliation de la vie professionnelle et familiale » qui correspondent à un ensemble de dispositifs hétéroclites, plus ou moins complexes, mais rarement cohérents. Alliant des objectifs tels que la hausse de la natalité, la protection des mères et des enfants, l'égalité entre femmes et hommes, la lutte contre la pauvreté des enfants et des familles monoparentales et l'activation des femmes, ces politiques sont fortement ancrées dans des traditions nationales de politiques familiales, d'emploi et fiscales. Ces politiques portent en elles l'héritage et les tensions de l'histoire d'un pays. Au moment où un nouvel acteur international, l'Union européenne, intervient de manière de plus en plus explicite dans le débat et dans la définition de ces politiques, la présente étude tend à analyser l'influence exercées par les référentiels européens en matière de politiques de conciliation sur les discours et politiques nationales de l'Italie et de la France. A partir d'une analyse cognitive du processus d'européanisation, nous montrons que les référentiels développés au sein de l'UE, par leur caractère abstrait et flou, n'ont eu jusqu'ici qu'une faible influence sur les discours et politiques en Italie et en France. Croisant une perspective néo-institutionnaliste historique et discursive, notre recherche a été construite autour de deux axes de réflexion. Premièrement, il a été question d'analyser, d'une part, l'évolution du discours tenu par les différentes instances européennes (notamment de la Commission européenne, le Conseil européen et le Fonds Social européen) et, d'autre part, questionner comment un consensus a pu émerger entre des pays et des acteurs qui ont des traditions extrêmement différentes en matière de politique sociale, de politique familiale et de convention de genre. Deuxièmement, il a été question d'analyser si et comment un cadre de référence conçu au niveau communautaire a pu influencer les discours et politiques au niveau national. - The reconciliation of work and family life policies forms, in the EU's member States, a plurality of politics, more or less complex, but rarely coherent. Combining different objectives such as fertility increase, mothers and children protection, equality between men and women, fight against children and lone-parent families poverty and women activation, these policies are part of the national traditions of family, employment and tax policy and bear the heritage and the tensions of the country history. At a moment when a new global player, the European Union, interferes increasingly explicitly in the debate and the definition of reconciling work and family life policies, the question at the heart of this thesis was to define what kind of influence the référentiels of European discourses have on reconciliation policies since the late 1990s, in the Italian and French discourses and policies. Starting from a cognitive analysis of the Europeanization process, we show that the référentiels developed within the EU, by their abstract and vague nature, have had little influence in Italy and France. Crossing an historical and a discursive neo-institutionalist perspective, our research was based on two axes of reasoning. First, we have analysed, on the one hand, the evolution of various European institutions' discoursed (including the European Commission, the European Council and the European Social Fund) and, on the other hand, we have questioned how a consensus has emerged between countries and actors who have very different traditions in social policy, family policy and gender conventions. Secondly, we have observed if and how a framework developed at Community level, as a kind of ideal to strive for, has influenced discourses and policies at the national level.
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An increasing body of research has pointed to the relevance of social capital in studying a great variety of socio-economic phenomena, ranging from economics growth and development to educational attainment and public health. Conceptually, our paper is framed within the debates about the possible links between health and social capital, on one hand, and within the hypotheses regarding the importance of social and community networks in all stages of the dynamics of international migration, on the other hand. Our primary objective is to explore the ways social relations contribute to health differences between the immigrants and the native-born population of Spain. We also try to reveal differences in the nature of the social networks of foreign-born, as compared to that of the native-born persons. The empirical analysis is based on an individual-level data coming from the 2006 Spanish Health Survey, which contains a representative sample of the immigrant population. To assess the relationship between various health indicators (self-assessed health, chronic conditions and long-term illness) and social capital, controlling for other covariates, we estimate multilevel models separately for the two population groups of interest. In the estimates we distinguish between individual and community-level social capital. While the Health Survey contains information that allows us to define individual social capital measures, the collective indicators come from other official sources. In particular, for the subsample of immigrants, we proxy community-level networks and relationships by variables contained in the Spanish National Survey of Immigrants 2007. The results obtained so far point to the relevance of social capital as a covariate in the health equation, although, the significance varies according to the specific health indicator used. Additionally, and contrary to what is expected, immigrants’ social networks seem to be inferior to those of the native-born population in many aspects; and they also affect immigrant’s health to a lesser extent. Policy implications of the findings are discussed. Keywords: health status, social capital, immigration, Spain
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Knowledge about spatial biodiversity patterns is a basic criterion for reserve network design. Although herbarium collections hold large quantities of information, the data are often scattered and cannot supply complete spatial coverage. Alternatively, herbarium data can be used to fit species distribution models and their predictions can be used to provide complete spatial coverage and derive species richness maps. Here, we build on previous effort to propose an improved compositionalist framework for using species distribution models to better inform conservation management. We illustrate the approach with models fitted with six different methods and combined using an ensemble approach for 408 plant species in a tropical and megadiverse country (Ecuador). As a complementary view to the traditional richness hotspots methodology, consisting of a simple stacking of species distribution maps, the compositionalist modelling approach used here combines separate predictions for different pools of species to identify areas of alternative suitability for conservation. Our results show that the compositionalist approach better captures the established protected areas than the traditional richness hotspots strategies and allows the identification of areas in Ecuador that would optimally complement the current protection network. Further studies should aim at refining the approach with more groups and additional species information.
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The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed.
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Micro, macro and mesofauna in the soil often respond to fluctuating environmental conditions, resulting in changes of abundance and community structure. Effects of changing soil parameters are normally determined with samples taken in the field and brought to the laboratory, i.e. where natural environmental conditions may not apply. We devised a method (STAFD - soil tubes for artificial flood and drought), which simulates the hydrological state of soil in situ using implanted cores. Control tubes were compared with treatment tubes in which floods of 15, 30, 60 and 90 days, and droughts of 60, 90 and 120 days were simulated in the field. Flooding and drought were found to reduce number of individuals in all soil faunal groups, but the response to drought was slower and not in proportion to the expected decrease of the water content. The results of the simulated floods in particular show the value of the STAFD method for the investigation of such extreme events in natural habitats.
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Aim: Modelling species at the assemblage level is required to make effective forecast of global change impacts on diversity and ecosystem functioning. Community predictions may be achieved using macroecological properties of communities (MEM), or by stacking of individual species distribution models (S-SDMs). To obtain more realistic predictions of species assemblages, the SESAM framework suggests applying successive filters to the initial species source pool, by combining different modelling approaches and rules. Here we provide a first test of this framework in mountain grassland communities. Location: The western Swiss Alps. Methods: Two implementations of the SESAM framework were tested: a "Probability ranking" rule based on species richness predictions and rough probabilities from SDMs, and a "Trait range" rule that uses the predicted upper and lower bound of community-level distribution of three different functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area and seed mass) to constraint a pool of environmentally filtered species from binary SDMs predictions. Results: We showed that all independent constraints expectedly contributed to reduce species richness overprediction. Only the "Probability ranking" rule allowed slightly but significantly improving predictions of community composition. Main conclusion: We tested various ways to implement the SESAM framework by integrating macroecological constraints into S-SDM predictions, and report one that is able to improve compositional predictions. We discuss possible improvements, such as further improving the causality and precision of environmental predictors, using other assembly rules and testing other types of ecological or functional constraints.
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BACKGROUND: The structure and organisation of ecological interactions within an ecosystem is modified by the evolution and coevolution of the individual species it contains. Understanding how historical conditions have shaped this architecture is vital for understanding system responses to change at scales from the microbial upwards. However, in the absence of a group selection process, the collective behaviours and ecosystem functions exhibited by the whole community cannot be organised or adapted in a Darwinian sense. A long-standing open question thus persists: Are there alternative organising principles that enable us to understand and predict how the coevolution of the component species creates and maintains complex collective behaviours exhibited by the ecosystem as a whole? RESULTS: Here we answer this question by incorporating principles from connectionist learning, a previously unrelated discipline already using well-developed theories on how emergent behaviours arise in simple networks. Specifically, we show conditions where natural selection on ecological interactions is functionally equivalent to a simple type of connectionist learning, 'unsupervised learning', well-known in neural-network models of cognitive systems to produce many non-trivial collective behaviours. Accordingly, we find that a community can self-organise in a well-defined and non-trivial sense without selection at the community level; its organisation can be conditioned by past experience in the same sense as connectionist learning models habituate to stimuli. This conditioning drives the community to form a distributed ecological memory of multiple past states, causing the community to: a) converge to these states from any random initial composition; b) accurately restore historical compositions from small fragments; c) recover a state composition following disturbance; and d) to correctly classify ambiguous initial compositions according to their similarity to learned compositions. We examine how the formation of alternative stable states alters the community's response to changing environmental forcing, and we identify conditions under which the ecosystem exhibits hysteresis with potential for catastrophic regime shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This work highlights the potential of connectionist theory to expand our understanding of evo-eco dynamics and collective ecological behaviours. Within this framework we find that, despite not being a Darwinian unit, ecological communities can behave like connectionist learning systems, creating internal conditions that habituate to past environmental conditions and actively recalling those conditions. REVIEWERS: This article was reviewed by Prof. Ricard V Solé, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona and Prof. Rob Knight, University of Colorado, Boulder.
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Aim The aim of this study was to test different modelling approaches, including a new framework, for predicting the spatial distribution of richness and composition of two insect groups. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We compared two community modelling approaches: the classical method of stacking binary prediction obtained fromindividual species distribution models (binary stacked species distribution models, bS-SDMs), and various implementations of a recent framework (spatially explicit species assemblage modelling, SESAM) based on four steps that integrate the different drivers of the assembly process in a unique modelling procedure. We used: (1) five methods to create bS-SDM predictions; (2) two approaches for predicting species richness, by summing individual SDM probabilities or by modelling the number of species (i.e. richness) directly; and (3) five different biotic rules based either on ranking probabilities from SDMs or on community co-occurrence patterns. Combining these various options resulted in 47 implementations for each taxon. Results Species richness of the two taxonomic groups was predicted with good accuracy overall, and in most cases bS-SDM did not produce a biased prediction exceeding the actual number of species in each unit. In the prediction of community composition bS-SDM often also yielded the best evaluation score. In the case of poor performance of bS-SDM (i.e. when bS-SDM overestimated the prediction of richness) the SESAM framework improved predictions of species composition. Main conclusions Our results differed from previous findings using community-level models. First, we show that overprediction of richness by bS-SDM is not a general rule, thus highlighting the relevance of producing good individual SDMs to capture the ecological filters that are important for the assembly process. Second, we confirm the potential of SESAM when richness is overpredicted by bS-SDM; limiting the number of species for each unit and applying biotic rules (here using the ranking of SDM probabilities) can improve predictions of species composition
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Bulgaria is historically a multicultural society, composed of the Bulgarian (ethnic) majority and a number of ethnic minorities among which Bulgarian Turks and Roma are the largest. Both minority communities are stigmatized in contemporary Bulgaria, though to different degrees and for different reasons. Ethnic minorities' rights to preserve their culture, customs, and language are a topic of contentious debate. The purpose of this study was to examine individual- and context-level antecedents of the ethnic Bulgarian majority's support for multicultural rights of ethnic minorities. Multilevel regression analyses were conducted with International Social Survey Programme ISSP 2003 data (N = 920 in 28 Bulgarian districts). At the individual-level, an ethnic conception of the nation and anti-Roma symbolic prejudice were negatively related to support for multicultural rights, whereas national identification was positively related to the support of these rights. Over and above individual-level effects, and in line with recent extensions of intergroup contact theory, thepercentage ofBulgarianTurks withindistricts was positively related to support for multicultural rights. Importantly, support for multicultural rights was particularly high in districts characterized by ethnic diversity, that is, in districts with high proportions of both Bulgarian Turks and Roma. The beneficial effects of ethnic diversity and theoretical implications of findings are discussed.