Association of a GRIA3 gene polymorphism with migraine in an Australian case-control cohort

BACKGROUND: The excitatory neurotransmitter glutamate has been implicated in both the hyperexcitability required for cortical spreading depression as well as activation of the trigeminovascular system required for the allodynia associated with migraine. Polymorphisms in the glutamate receptor ionotropic amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole-propionin acid 1 (GRIA1) and GRIA3 genes that code for 2 of 4 subunits of the glutamate receptor have been previously associated with migraine in an Italian population. In addition, the GRIA3 gene is coded within a previously identified migraine susceptibility locus at Xq24. This study investigated the previously associated polymorphisms in both genes in an Australian case-control population. METHODS: Variants in GRIA1 and GRIA3 were genotyped in 472 unrelated migraine cases and matched controls, and data were analyzed for association. RESULTS: Analysis showed no association between migraine and the GRIA1 gene. However, association was observed with the GRIA3 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs3761555 (P = .008). CONCLUSION: The results of this study confirmed the previous report of association at the rs3761555 SNP within the migraine with aura subgroup of migraineurs. However, the study identified association with the inverse allele suggesting that rs3761555 may not be the causative SNP but is more likely in linkage disequilibrium with another causal variant in both populations. This study supports the plethora of evidence suggesting that glutamate dysfunction may contribute to migraine susceptibility, warranting further investigation of the glutamatergic system and particularly of the GRIA3 gene.

Perianal disease combined with NOD2 genotype predicts need for IBD-related surgery in Crohn’s Disease patients from a population-based cohort

Background: Patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) often require surgery at some stage of disease course. Prediction of CD outcome is influenced by clinical, environmental, serological, and genetic factors (eg, NOD2). Being able to identify CD patients at high risk of surgical intervention should assist clinicians to decide whether or not to prescribe early aggressive treatment with immunomodulators. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of selected clinical (age at diagnosis, perianal disease, active smoking) and genetic (NOD2 genotype) data obtained for a population-based CD cohort from the Canterbury Inflammatory Bowel Disease study. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of complicated outcome in these CD patients (ie, need for inflammatory bowel disease-related surgery). Results: Perianal disease and the NOD2 genotype were the only independent factors associated with the need for surgery in this patient group (odds ratio=2.84 and 1.60, respectively). By combining the associated NOD2 genotype with perianal disease we generated a single “clinicogenetic” variable. This was strongly associated with increased risk of surgery (odds ratio=3.84, P=0.00, confidence interval, 2.28-6.46) and offered moderate predictive accuracy (positive predictive value=0.62). Approximately 1/3 of surgical outcomes in this population are attributable to the NOD2+PA variable (attributable risk=0.32). Conclusions: Knowledge of perianal disease and NOD2 genotype in patients presenting with CD may offer clinicians some decision-making utility for early diagnosis of complicated CD progression and initiating intensive treatment to avoid surgical intervention. Future studies should investigate combination effects of other genetic, clinical, and environmental factors when attempting to identify predictors of complicated CD outcomes.

A genome-wide analysis of 'Bounty' descendants implicates several novel variants in migraine susceptibility

Migraine is a common neurological disease with a complex genetic aetiology. The disease affects ~12% of the Caucasian population and females are three times more likely than males to be diagnosed. In an effort to identify loci involved in migraine susceptibility, we performed a pedigree-based genome-wide association study of the isolated population of Norfolk Island, which has a high prevalence of migraine. This unique population originates from a small number of British and Polynesian founders who are descendents of the Bounty mutiny and forms a very large multigenerational pedigree (Bellis et al.; Human Genetics, 124(5):543-5542, 2008). These population genetic features may facilitate disease gene mapping strategies (Peltonen et al.; Nat Rev Genet, 1(3):182-90, 2000. In this study, we identified a high heritability of migraine in the Norfolk Island population (h (2) = 0.53, P = 0.016). We performed a pedigree-based GWAS and utilised a statistical and pathological prioritisation approach to implicate a number of variants in migraine. An SNP located in the zinc finger protein 555 (ZNF555) gene (rs4807347) showed evidence of statistical association in our Norfolk Island pedigree (P = 9.6 × 10(-6)) as well as replication in a large independent and unrelated cohort with >500 migraineurs. In addition, we utilised a biological prioritisation to implicate four SNPs, in within the ADARB2 gene, two SNPs within the GRM7 gene and a single SNP in close proximity to a HTR7 gene. Association of SNPs within these neurotransmitter-related genes suggests a disrupted serotoninergic system that is perhaps specific to the Norfolk Island pedigree, but that might provide clues to understanding migraine more generally.

Confirmation that Xq27 and Xq28 are susceptibility loci for migraine in independent pedigrees and a case-control cohort

Investigations into migraine genetics have suggested that susceptibility loci exist on the X chromosome. These reports are supported by evidence that demonstrates male probands as having a higher proportion of affected first-degree relatives as well as the female preponderance of 3:1 that the disorder displays. We have previously implicated the Xq24-28 locus in migraine using two independent multigenerational Australian pedigrees that demonstrated excess allele sharing at the Xq24, Xq27 and Xq28 loci. Here, we expand this work to investigate a further six independent migraine pedigrees using 11 microsatellite markers spanning the Xq27–28 region. Furthermore, 11 candidate genes are investigated in an Australian case-control cohort consisting of 500 cases and 500 controls. Microsatellite analysis showed evidence of excess allele sharing to the Xq27 marker DXS8043 (LOD* 1.38 P = 0.005) in MF879 whilst a second independent pedigree showed excess allele sharing to DXS8061 at Xq28 (LOD* 1.5 P = 0.004). Furthermore, analysis of these key markers in a case control cohort showed significant association to migraine in females at the DXS8043 marker (T1 P = 0.009) and association with MO at DXS8061 (T1 P = 0.05). Further analysis of 11 key genes across these regions showed significant association of a three-marker risk haplotype in the NSDHL gene at Xq28 (P = 0.0082). The results of this study add further support to the presence of migraine susceptibility loci on chromosome Xq27 and Xq28 as well as point to potential candidate genes in the regions that warrant further investigation.

Functional analysis of missense variants in the TRESK (KCNK18) K+ channel

A loss of function mutation in the TRESK K2P potassium channel (KCNK18), has recently been linked with typical familial migraine with aura. We now report the functional characterisation of additional TRESK channel missense variants identified in unrelated patients. Several variants either had no apparent functional effect, or they caused a reduction in channel activity. However, the C110R variant was found to cause a complete loss of TRESK function, yet is present in both sporadic migraine and control cohorts, and no variation in KCNK18 copy number was found. Thus despite the previously identified association between loss of TRESK channel activity and migraine in a large multigenerational pedigree, this finding indicates that a single non-functional TRESK variant is not alone sufficient to cause typical migraine and highlights the genetic complexity of this disorder. Migraine is a common, disabling neurological disorder with a genetic, environmental and in some cases hormonal component. It is characterized by attacks of severe, usually unilateral and throbbing headache, can be accompanied by nausea, vomiting and photophobia and is clinically divided into two main subtypes, migraine with aura (MA) when a migraine is accompanied by transient and reversible focal neurological symptoms and migraine without aura (MO)1. The multifactorial and clinical heterogeneity of the disorder have considerably hindered the identification of common migraine susceptibility genes and most of our current understanding comes from the studies of familial hemiplegic migraine (FHM), a rare monogenic autosomal dominant form of MA2. So far, the three susceptibility genes that have been convincingly identified in FHM families all encode ion channels or transporters: CACNA1A encoding the α1 subunit of the Cav2.1 calcium channel3, SCN1A encoding the Nav1.1 sodium channel4 and ATP1A2 encoding the α2 subunit of the Na+/K+ pump5. It is believed that mutations in these genes may lead to increased efflux of glutamate and potassium in the synapse and thereby cause migraine by rendering the brain more susceptible to cortical spreading depression (CSD)6 which is thought to play a role in initiating a migraine attack7,8. However, these genes have not to date been implicated in common forms of migraine9. Nevertheless, current opinion suggests that typical migraine, like FHM, is also disorder of neuronal excitability, ion homeostasis and neurotransmitter release10,11,12. Mutations in the SLC4A4 gene encoding the sodium-bicarbonate cotransporter NBCe1, have recently been implicated in several different forms of migraine13, and a variety of genes involved in glutamate homeostasis (PGCP, MTDH14 and LRP115) and a cation channel (TRPM8)15 have also recently been implicated in migraine via genome-wide association studies. Ion channels are therefore highly likely to play an important role in the pathogenesis of typical migraine. TRESK (KCNK18), is a member of the two-pore domain (K2P) family of potassium channels involved in the control of cellular electrical excitability16. Regulation of TRESK activity by the calcium-dependent phosphatase calcineurin17, as well as its expression in dorsal root ganglia (DRG)18 and trigeminal ganglia (TG)19,20 has led to a proposed role for this channel in a variety of pain pathways. In a recent study, a frameshift mutation (F139Wfsx24) in TRESK was identified in a large multigenerational pedigree where it co-segregated perfectly with typical MA and a significant genome-wide linkage LOD score of 3.0. Furthermore, functional analysis revealed that this mutation caused a complete loss of TRESK function and that the truncated subunit was also capable of down regulating wild-type channel function. This therefore highlighted KCNK18 as potentially important candidate gene and suggested that TRESK dysfunction might play a possible role in the pathogenesis of familial migraine with visual aura20. Additional screening for KCNK18 mutations in unrelated sporadic migraine and control cohorts also identified a number of other missense variants; R10G, A34V, C110R, S231P and A233V20. The A233V variant was found only in the control cohort, whilst A34V was identified in a single Australian migraine proband for which family samples were not available, but it was not detected in controls. By contrast, the R10G, C110R, and S231P variants were found in both migraineurs and controls in both cohorts. In this study, we have investigated the functional effect of these variants to further probe the potential association of TRESK dysfunction with typical migraine.

The human μ-opioid receptor gene polymorphism (A118G) is associated with head pain severity in a clinical cohort of female migraine with aura patients

Migraine is a painful and debilitating, neurovascular disease. Current migraine head pain treatments work with differing efficacies in migraineurs. The opioid system plays an important role in diverse biological functions including analgesia, drug response and pain reduction. The A118G single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in exon 1 of the μ-opioid receptor gene (OPRM1) has been associated with elevated pain responses and decreased pain threshold in a variety of populations. The aim of the current preliminary study was to test whether genotypes of the OPRM1 A118G SNP are associated with head pain severity in a clinical cohort of female migraineurs. This was a preliminary study to determine whether genotypes of the OPRM1 A118G SNP are associated with head pain severity in a clinical cohort of female migraineurs. A total of 153 chronic migraine with aura sufferers were assessed for migraine head pain using the Migraine Disability Assessment Score instrument and classified into high and low pain severity groups. DNA was extracted and genotypes obtained for the A118G SNP. Logistic regression analysis adjusting for age effects showed the A118G SNP of the OPRM1 gene to be significantly associated with migraine pain severity in the test population (P = 0.0037). In particular, G118 allele carriers were more likely to be high pain sufferers compared to homozygous carriers of the A118 allele (OR = 3.125, 95 % CI = 1.41, 6.93, P = 0.0037). These findings suggest that A118G genotypes of the OPRM1 gene may influence migraine-associated head pain in females. Further investigations are required to fully understand the effect of this gene variant on migraine head pain including studies in males and in different migraine subtypes, as well as in response to head pain medication.

A new method to detect loss of heterozygosity using cohort heterozygosity comparisons

Background Loss of heterozygosity (LOH) is an important marker for one of the 'two-hits' required for tumor suppressor gene inactivation. Traditional methods for mapping LOH regions require the comparison of both tumor and patient-matched normal DNA samples. However, for many archival samples, patient-matched normal DNA is not available leading to the under-utilization of this important resource in LOH studies. Here we describe a new method for LOH analysis that relies on the genome-wide comparison of heterozygosity of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between cohorts of cases and un-matched healthy control samples. Regions of LOH are defined by consistent decreases in heterozygosity across a genetic region in the case cohort compared to the control cohort. Methods DNA was collected from 20 Follicular Lymphoma (FL) tumor samples, 20 Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma (DLBCL) tumor samples, neoplastic B-cells of 10 B-cell Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia (B-CLL) patients and Buccal cell samples matched to 4 of these B-CLL patients. The cohort heterozygosity comparison method was developed and validated using LOH derived in a small cohort of B-CLL by traditional comparisons of tumor and normal DNA samples, and compared to the only alternative method for LOH analysis without patient matched controls. LOH candidate regions were then generated for enlarged cohorts of B-CLL, FL and DLBCL samples using our cohort heterozygosity comparison method in order to evaluate potential LOH candidate regions in these non-Hodgkin's lymphoma tumor subtypes. Results Using a small cohort of B-CLL samples with patient-matched normal DNA we have validated the utility of this method and shown that it displays more accuracy and sensitivity in detecting LOH candidate regions compared to the only alternative method, the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) method. Subsequently, using B-CLL, FL and DLBCL tumor samples we have utilised cohort heterozygosity comparisons to localise LOH candidate regions in these subtypes of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Detected LOH regions included both previously described regions of LOH as well as novel genomic candidate regions. Conclusions We have proven the efficacy of the use of cohort heterozygosity comparisons for genome-wide mapping of LOH and shown it to be in many ways superior to the HMM method. Additionally, the use of this method to analyse SNP microarray data from 3 common forms of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma yielded interesting tumor suppressor gene candidates, including the ETV3 gene that was highlighted in both B-CLL and FL.

Evaluating patient presentations for care delivered by emergency nurse practitioners : a retrospective analysis of 12 months

Background The delivery of quality patient care in the emergency department (ED) is emerging as one of the most important service indicators to be measured in health services today. The emergency nurse practitioner role was implemented as a service innovation in a Emergency & Trauma Centre (ETC), Melbourne, Australia, in July 2004 .The primary aim of the role was intended to enhance healthcare services, improve the efficiency and timely delivery of high quality care to patients. Aim To conduct a retrospective study of patient presentations at the ETC to obtain a profile of the characteristics of patients managed by emergency nurse practitioners. Specifically the objectives of the study were to: 1) examine the demographics of the patient population 2) evaluate data on emergency department service indicators for this patient cohort Method All patients presenting to the ETC from January 01 2011 to December 31 2011 and managed by emergency nurse practitioners were included in the review. Data collection included baseline demographics, waiting times to be seen, length of stay, emergency department discharge diagnoses and referral patterns. Data were extracted and imported directly from the emergency department Patient Information System (Cerner log), for the specified time frame. Results A total of 5212 patients were reviewed in the study period. The median age of patients was 35 years and 61% of patients were male. The most common discharge diagnosis was open wounds to hand/wrist. Waiting times to be seen by the emergency nurse practitioner were 14 minutes and length of stay for patients with a discharge disposition of home were 122 minutes. Conclusions This study has provided information on patient baseline characteristics and performance on important service indicators for this patient sample that will inform further research to evaluate specific outcomes of the emergency nurse practitioner service.

Cost-effectiveness of a telephone-delivered education programme to prevent early childhood caries in a disadvantaged area : a cohort study

Objectives Early childhood caries is a highly destructive dental disease which is compounded by the need for young children to be treated under general anaesthesia. In Australia, there are long waiting periods for treatment at public hospitals. In this paper, we examined the costs and patient outcomes of a prevention programme for early childhood caries to assess its value for government services. Design Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model. Setting Public dental patients in a low socioeconomic, socially disadvantaged area in the State of Queensland, Australia. Participants Children aged 6 months to 6 years received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Primary and secondary outcome measures A mathematical model was used to assess caries incidence and public dental treatment costs for a cohort of children. Healthcare costs, treatment probabilities and caries incidence were modelled from 6 months to 6 years of age based on trial data from mothers and their children who received either a telephone prevention programme or usual care. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the findings to uncertainty in the model estimates. Results By age 6 years, the telephone intervention programme had prevented an estimated 43 carious teeth and saved £69 984 in healthcare costs per 100 children. The results were sensitive to the cost of general anaesthesia (cost-savings range £36 043–£97 298) and the incidence of caries in the prevention group (cost-savings range £59 496–£83 368) and usual care (cost-savings range £46 833–£93 328), but there were cost savings in all scenarios. Conclusions A telephone intervention that aims to prevent early childhood caries is likely to generate considerable and immediate patient benefits and cost savings to the public dental health service in disadvantaged communities.

Common PPARγ variants C161T and Pro12Ala are not associated with inflammatory bowel disease in an Australian cohort

Background & Aims: Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) γ is a transcription factor, highly expressed in colonic epithelial cells, adipose tissue and macrophages, with an important role in the regulation of inflammatory pathways. The common PPARγ variants C161T and Pro12Ala have recently been associated with Ulcerative Colitis (UC) and an extensive UC phenotype respectively, in a Chinese population. PPARγ Pro12Ala variant homozygotes appear to be protected from the development of Crohn's disease (CD) in European Caucasians. Methods: A case-control study was performed for both variants (CD n=575, UC n=306, Controls n=360) using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis in an Australian IBD cohort. A transmission disequilibrium test was also performed using CD trios for the PPARγ C161T variant. Genotype-phenotype analyses were also undertaken. Results: There was no significant difference in genotype distribution data or allele frequency between CD and UC patients and controls. There was no difference in allele transmission for the C161T variant. No significant relationship between the variants and disease location was observed. Conclusions: We were unable to replicate in a Caucasian cohort the recent association between PPARγ C161T and UC or between PPARγ Pro12Ala and an extensive UC phenotype in a Chinese population. There are significant ethnic differences in genetic susceptibility to IBD and its phenotypic expression.

Locked nucleic acid (LNA) single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype analysis and validation using real-time PCR

With an increased emphasis on genotyping of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in disease association studies, the genotyping platform of choice is constantly evolving. In addition, the development of more specific SNP assays and appropriate genotype validation applications is becoming increasingly critical to elucidate ambiguous genotypes. In this study, we have used SNP specific Locked Nucleic Acid (LNA) hybridization probes on a real-time PCR platform to genotype an association cohort and propose three criteria to address ambiguous genotypes. Based on the kinetic properties of PCR amplification, the three criteria address PCR amplification efficiency, the net fluorescent difference between maximal and minimal fluorescent signals and the beginning of the exponential growth phase of the reaction. Initially observed SNP allelic discrimination curves were confirmed by DNA sequencing (n = 50) and application of our three genotype criteria corroborated both sequencing and observed real-time PCR results. In addition, the tested Caucasian association cohort was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and observed allele frequencies were very similar to two independently tested Caucasian association cohorts for the same tested SNP. We present here a novel approach to effectively determine ambiguous genotypes generated from a real-time PCR platform. Application of our three novel criteria provides an easy to use semi-automated genotype confirmation protocol.

Environments For Healthy Living (EFHL) Griffith birth cohort study : characteristics of sample and profile of antenatal exposures

Background The Environments for Healthy Living (EFHL) study is a repeated sample, longitudinal birth cohort in South East Queensland, Australia. We describe the sample characteristics and profile of maternal, household, and antenatal exposures. Variation and data stability over recruitment years were examined. Methods Four months each year from 2006, pregnant women were recruited to EFHL at routine antenatal visits on or after 24 weeks gestation, from three public maternity hospitals. Participating mothers completed a baseline questionnaire on individual, familial, social and community exposure factors. Perinatal data were extracted from hospital birth records. Descriptive statistics and measures of association were calculated comparing the EFHL birth sample with regional and national reference populations. Data stability of antenatal exposure factors was assessed across five recruitment years (2006–2010 inclusive) using the Gamma statistic for ordinal data and chi-squared for nominal data. Results Across five recruitment years 2,879 pregnant women were recruited which resulted in 2904 live births with 29 sets of twins. EFHL has a lower representation of early gestational babies, fewer still births and a lower percentage of low birth weight babies, when compared to regional data. The majority of women (65%) took a multivitamin supplement during pregnancy, 47% consumed alcohol, and 26% reported having smoked cigarettes. There were no differences in rates of a range of antenatal exposures across five years of recruitment, with the exception of increasing maternal pre-pregnancy weight (p=0.0349), decreasing rates of high maternal distress (p=0.0191) and decreasing alcohol consumption (p<0.0001). Conclusions The study sample is broadly representative of births in the region and almost all factors showed data stability over time. This study, with repeated sampling of birth cohorts over multiple years, has the potential to make important contributions to population health through evaluating longitudinal follow-up and within cohort temporal effects.

The development of chronic cough in children following presentation to a tertiary paediatric emergency department with acute respiratory illness : study protocol for a prospective cohort study

Background Acute respiratory illness, a leading cause of cough in children, accounts for a substantial proportion of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. In some children acute cough progresses to chronic cough (> 4 weeks duration), impacting on morbidity and decreasing quality of life. Despite the importance of chronic cough as a cause of substantial childhood morbidity and associated economic, family and social costs, data on the prevalence, predictors, aetiology and natural history of the symptom are scarce. This study aims to comprehensively describe the epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of cough during and after acute respiratory illness in children presenting to a tertiary paediatric emergency department. Methods/design A prospective cohort study of children aged <15 years attending the Royal Children's Hospital Emergency Department, Brisbane, for a respiratory illness that includes parent reported cough (wet or dry) as a symptom. The primary objective is to determine the prevalence and predictors of chronic cough (>= 4 weeks duration) post presentation with acute respiratory illness. Demographic, epidemiological, risk factor, microbiological and clinical data are completed at enrolment. Subjects complete daily cough dairies and weekly follow-up contacts for 28(+/-3) days to ascertain cough persistence. Children who continue to cough for 28 days post enrolment are referred to a paediatric respiratory physician for review. Primary analysis will be the proportion of children with persistent cough at day 28(+/-3). Multivariate analyses will be performed to evaluate variables independently associated with chronic cough at day 28(+/-3). Discussion Our protocol will be the first to comprehensively describe the natural history, epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of cough during and after acute respiratory illness in children. The results will contribute to studies leading to the development of evidence-based clinical guidelines to improve the early detection and management of chronic cough in children during and after acute respiratory illness.

The safety profile of perflutren microsphere contrast echocardiography during rest and stress imaging : results from an Australian multicentre cohort

Background Contrast enhanced echocardiography (CEE) is utilised when sub-optimal image quality results in non-diagnostic echocardiograms. However, there have been numerous safety notices issued by regulatory authorities regarding rare but potentially serious adverse reactions (AR). This multi-centre, retrospective analysis was performed to assess the short-term safety of CEE in a broad range of indications. Methods All CEE performed over 58 months at three institutions were assessed for AR within 30 min. Results A total of 5956 CEE were performed in 5576 patients. A total of 4903 were stress CEE and 1053 resting CCE.Bolus administration in 5719, infusion in 237 cases; 89.9% of CCE were outpatients. Commonest CEE indication was functional stress testing (82.3%). There were 16 AR related to CEE (0.27%). All AR were mild, transient and all patients made a full recovery. No cases of serious anaphylaxis or death within 30 min of contrast administration. Comparing those with and without an AR, there were no significant differences in age, gender, BMI, LVEF, patient location, exam type or RVSP. There was a slightly increased likelihood of an AR during infusion versus bolus dosing (p = 0.02). Conclusion CEE is a safe investigation in a broad range of indications and clinical scenarios. AR are very rare, mild and transient.

Incidence of unilateral arm lymphoedema after breast cancer : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background The body of evidence related to breast-cancer-related lymphoedema incidence and risk factors has substantially grown and improved in quality over the past decade. We assessed the incidence of unilateral arm lymphoedema after breast cancer and explored the evidence available for lymphoedema risk factors. Methods We searched Academic Search Elite, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (clinical trials), and Medline for research articles that assessed the incidence or prevalence of, or risk factors for, arm lymphoedema after breast cancer, published between January 1, 2000, and June 30, 2012. We extracted incidence data and calculated corresponding exact binomial 95% CIs. We used random effects models to calculate a pooled overall estimate of lymphoedema incidence, with subgroup analyses to assess the effect of different study designs, countries of study origin, diagnostic methods, time since diagnosis, and extent of axillary surgery. We assessed risk factors and collated them into four levels of evidence, depending on consistency of findings and quality and quantity of studies contributing to findings. Findings 72 studies met the inclusion criteria for the assessment of lymphoedema incidence, giving a pooled estimate of 16·6% (95% CI 13·6–20·2). Our estimate was 21·4% (14·9–29·8) when restricted to data from prospective cohort studies (30 studies). The incidence of arm lymphoedema seemed to increase up to 2 years after diagnosis or surgery of breast cancer (24 studies with time since diagnosis or surgery of 12 to <24 months; 18·9%, 14·2–24·7), was highest when assessed by more than one diagnostic method (nine studies; 28·2%, 11·8–53·5), and was about four times higher in women who had an axillary-lymph-node dissection (18 studies; 19·9%, 13·5–28·2) than it was in those who had sentinel-node biopsy (18 studies; 5·6%, 6·1–7·9). 29 studies met the inclusion criteria for the assessment of risk factors. Risk factors that had a strong level of evidence were extensive surgery (ie, axillary-lymph-node dissection, greater number of lymph nodes dissected, mastectomy) and being overweight or obese. Interpretation Our findings suggest that more than one in five women who survive breast cancer will develop arm lymphoedema. A clear need exists for improved understanding of contributing risk factors, as well as of prevention and management strategies to reduce the individual and public health burden of this disabling and distressing disorder.