The potential of stomata analysis in conifers to estimate presence of conifer trees: examples from the Alps

To estimate whether or not a plant taxon found in the fossil record was locally present may be difficult if only pollen is analyzed. Plant macrofossils, in contrast, provide a clear indication of a taxon's local presence, although in some lake sediments or peats, macrofossils may be rare or degraded. For conifers, the stomata found on pollen slides are derived from needles and thus provide a valuable proxy for local presence and they can be identified to genus level. From previously published studies, a transect across the Alps based on 13 sites is presented. For basal samples in sandy silt above the till with high pollen values of Pinus, for example, we may distinguish pine pollen from distant sources (samples with no stomata), from reworked pollen (samples with stomata present). The first apparent local presence of most conifer genera based on stomata often but not always occurs together with the phase of rapid pollen increase (rational limit). An exception is Larix, with its annual deposition of needles and heavy poorly dispersed pollen, for it often shows the first stomata earlier, at the empirical pollen limit. The decline and potential local extinction of a conifer can sometimes be shown in the stomata record. The decline may have been caused by climatic change, competition, or human impact. In situations where conifers form the timberline, the stomata record may indicate timberline fluctuations. In the discussion of immigration or migration of taxa we advocate the use of the cautious term ``apparent local presence'' to include some uncertainties. Absence of a taxon is impossible to prove.

West Antarctic Ice Streams

Solar heat is the acknowledged driving force for climatic change. However, ice sheets are also capable of causing climatic change. This property of ice sheets derives from the facts that ice and rock are crystalline whereas the oceans and atmosphere are fluids and that ice sheets are massive enough to depress the earth's crust well below sea level. These features allow time constants for glacial flow and isostatic compensation to be much larger than those for ocean and atmospheric circulation and therefore somewhat independent of the solar variations that control this circulation. This review examines the nature of dynamic processes in ice streams that give ice sheets their degree of independent behavior and emphasizes the consequences of viscoplastic instability inherent in anisotropic polycrystalline solids such as glacial ice. Viscoplastic instability and subglacial topography are responsible for the formation of ice streams near ice sheet margins grounded below sea level. As a result the West Antarctic marine ice sheet is inherently unstable and can be rapidly carved away by calving bays which migrate up surging ice streams. Analyses of tidal flexure along floating ice stream margins, stress and velocity fields in ice streams, and ice stream boundary conditions are presented and used to interpret ERTS 1 photomosaics for West Antarctica in terms of characteristic ice sheet crevasse patterns that can be used to monitor ice stream surges and to study calving bay dynamics.

The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km2, we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.

Magnitude-frequency aspects of alpine debris flows

Based on historic documents the event history for 17 mountain torrents in the Swiss Alps was evaluated. Four classes could be determined for the recurrence interval of the debris flow events. The magnitude is not necessarily dependent on the recurrence interval. The characteristics of the catchment basin (disposition) are mainly controlling the magnitude. In order to evaluate the effects of climatic change on the debris flow activity, knowledge about the magnitude and the frequency are necessary.

Depositional modes and lake-level variability at Lake Towuti, Indonesia, during the past ~29 kyr BP

Lake Towuti (2.5°S, 121.5°E) is a long-lived, tectonic lake located on the Island of Sulawesi, Indonesia, and in the center of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). Lake Towuti is connected with upstream lakes Matano and Mahalona through the Mahalona River, which constitutes the largest inlet to the lake. The Mahalona River Delta is prograding into Lake Towuti’s deep northern basin thus exerting significant control on depositional processes in the basin. We combine high-resolution seismic reflection and sedimentological datasets from a 19.8-m-long sediment piston core from the distal edge of this delta to characterize fluctuations in deltaic sedimentation during the past ~29 kyr BP and their relation to climatic change. Our datasets reveal that, in the present, sedimentation is strongly influenced by deposition of laterally transported sediments sourced from the Mahalona River Delta. Variations in the amount of laterally transported sediments, as expressed by coarse fraction amounts in pelagic muds and turbidite recurrence rates and cumulative thicknesses, are primarily a function of lake-level induced delta slope instability and delta progradation into the basin. We infer lowest lake-levels between ~29 and 16, a gradual lake level rise between ~16 and 11, and high lake-levels between ~11 and 0 kyr BP. Periods of highest turbidite deposition, ~26 to 24 and ~18 to 16 kyr BP coincide with Heinrich events 2 and 1, respectively. Our lake-level reconstruction therefore supports previous observations based on geochemical hydroclimate proxies of a very dry last glacial and a wet Holocene in the region, and provides new evidence of millennial-scale variations in moisture balance in the IPWP.

Fire ecology north and south of the Alps since the last ice age

Wildfires are very rare in central Europe, which is probably why fire effects on vegetation have been neglected by most central European ecologists and palaeoecologists. Presently, reconstructions of fire history and fire ecology are almost absent. We analysed sediment cores from lakes on the Swiss Plateau (Lobsigensee and Soppensee) for pollen and charcoal to investigate the relationship between vegetation and fire. Microscopic charcoal evidence suggests increasing regional fire frequencies during the Neolithic (7350-4150 cal. BP, 5400-2200 BC) and the subsequent prehistoric epochs at Lobsigensee, whereas at Soppensee burnings remained rather rare until modern times. Neolithic peaks of charcoal at 6200 and 5500 cal. BP (4250 and 3550 BC) coincided with declines of pollen of fire-sensitive taxa at both sites (e.g., Ulmus, Tilia, Hedera, Fagus), suggesting synchronous vegetational responses to fire at regional scales. However, correlation analysis between charcoal and pollen for the period 6600-4400 cal. BP (4650-2650 BC) revealed no significant link between fire and vegetation at Soppensee, whereas at Lobsigensee increases of Corylus and decreases of Fagus were related to fire events. Fire impact on vegetation increased during the subsequent epochs at both sites. Correlation analyses of charcoal and pollen data for the period 4250-1150 cal. BP (2300 BC -AD 800) suggest that fires were intentionally set to disrupt forests and to provide open areas for arable and pastoral farming (e.g., significant positive correlations between charcoal and Cerealia, Plantago lanceolata, Asteroideae). These results are compared with southern European records (Lago di Origlio, Lago di Muzzano), which are situated in particularly fire-prone environments. After the Mesolithic period (I1 200-7350 cal. BP, 9250-5400 BC), charcoal influx was higher by an order of magnitude in the south, suggesting more frequent fires. Neolithic fires caused similar though more pronounced responses of vegetation in the south (e.g., expansions of Corylus). Post-Neolithic land-use practices involving (controlled) burning culminated in both regions at about 2550 cal. BP (c. 600 BC). However, fire-caused disappearances of entire forest communities were confined to the southern sites. Such differences in fire effects among the sites are explained by the dissimilar importance of fire as a result of different climatic conditions and cultural activities. Our results imply that the remaining (fire-sensitive) fragments of central European vegetation north of the Alps are especially endangered by increasing fire frequencies resulting from predicted climatic change.

Rapid responses of high-mountain vegetation to early Holocene environmental changes in the Swiss Alps

1 The Early Holocene sediment of a lake at tree line (Gouillé Rion, 2343 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Central Alps was sampled for plant macrofossils. Thin (0.5 cm) slices, representing time intervals of c. 50 years each from 11 800 to 7800 cal. year bp, were analysed and the data compared with independent palaeoclimatic proxies to study vegetational responses to environmental change. 2 Alpine plant communities (e.g. with Salix herbacea) were established at 11 600–11 500 cal. year bp, when oxygen-isotope records showed that temperatures increased by c. 3–4 °C within decades. Larix decidua trees reached the site at c. 11 350 cal. year bp, probably in response to further warming by 1–2 °C. Forests dominated by L. decidua persisted until 9600 cal. year bp, when Pinus cembra became more important. 3 The dominance of Larix decidua for two millennia is explained by dry summer conditions, and possibly low winter temperatures, which favoured it over the late-successional Pinus cembra. Environmental conditions were a result of variations in the earth's orbit, leading to a maximum of summer and a minimum of winter solar radiation. Other heliophilous and drought-adapted species, such as Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana, could persist in the open L. decidua forests, but were out-competed when the shade-tolerant P. cembra expanded. 4 The relative importance of Larix decidua decreased during periods of diminished solar radiation at 11 100, 10 100 and 9400 cal. year bp. Stable concentrations of L. decidua indicate that these percentage oscillations were caused by temporary increases of Pinus cembra, Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana that can be explained by increases in moisture and/or decreases in summer temperature. 5 The final collapse of Larix decidua at 8400 cal. year bp was possibly related to abrupt climatic cooling as a consequence of a large meltwater input to the North Atlantic. Similarly, the temporary exclusion of Pinus cembra from tree line at 10 600–10 200 cal. year bp may be related to slowing down of thermohaline circulation at 10 700–10 300 cal. year bp. 6 Our results show that tree line vegetation was in dynamic equilibrium with climate, even during periods of extraordinarily rapid climatic change. They also imply that forecasted global warming may trigger rapid upslope movements of the tree line of up to 800 m within a few decades or centuries at most, probably inducing large-scale displacements of plant species as well as irrecoverable biodiversity losses.

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

The palaeoecological history of the Praz-Rodet bog (Swiss Jura) based on pollen, plant macrofossils and testate amoebae (Protozoa)

Stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating and analyses of pollen, plant macrofossils and testate amoebae were used to reconstruct the development and ecology of a small raised bog in a karst-dominated landscape in the Swiss Jura Mountains. Special focus was on past vegetation and on the history of Pinus rotundata in relation to anthropogenic and climatic influences. Testate amoebae were used to reconstruc-t past local soil pH and water-table depth. The inferred development of the Praz-Rodet bog typifies a classic hydroseral tefrestrialization of a small basin. Two features are specific for this site. First, the bog was much wetter than today for a long period; according to our hypothesis, this only changed as a consequence of human activities. Second, two hiatuses are present at the coring location (Younger Dryas--early Preboreal, and 4700-2800 cal. yr BP), the former probably caused by low lake productivity due to cold temperatures and the latter by the erosional activity of the adjacent small river. The date of 2800 cal. yr BP for renewed peat accumulation may be related to climatic change (Subboreal-Subatlantic transition). Pollen indicators failed to show one hiatus: an apparently complete pollen sequence is therefore no guarantee of an uninterrupted sediment accumulation. Evidence of early minor human impact on the vegetation in the Joux Valley dates back to c. 6850 calendar years, congruous with the early Neolithic in the Jura Mountains. The history of Pinuis rotindata appears to be more complex than previously believed. Human activity is clearly responsible for the present abundance of this species, but the tree was naturally present on the bog long before the first evidence of important human disturbance of the site (1500 cal. yr BP). It is suggested that, in karst-dominated landscapes, dense forests growing on mineral soils around raised bogs may significantly reduce summer evapotranspiration by acting as windbreaks. Forest clearance results in increased evapotranspiration, causing a lowering of the water table on the bog and a modification of the vegetation cover. This hypothesis has implications for the management of similar small raised bogs in karst-dominated landscape.

Younger Dryas and Allerød summer temperatures at Gerzensee (Switzerland) inferred from fossil pollen and cladoceran assemblages

Linear- and unimodal-based inference models for mean summer temperatures (partial least squares, weighted averaging, and weighted averaging partial least squares models) were applied to a high-resolution pollen and cladoceran stratigraphy from Gerzensee, Switzerland. The time-window of investigation included the Allerød, the Younger Dryas, and the Preboreal. Characteristic major and minor oscillations in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, such as the Gerzensee oscillation, the onset and end of the Younger Dryas stadial, and the Preboreal oscillation, were identified by isotope analysis of bulk-sediment carbonates of the same core and were used as independent indicators for hemispheric or global scale climatic change. In general, the pollen-inferred mean summer temperature reconstruction using all three inference models follows the oxygen-isotope curve more closely than the cladoceran curve. The cladoceran-inferred reconstruction suggests generally warmer summers than the pollen-based reconstructions, which may be an effect of terrestrial vegetation not being in equilibrium with climate due to migrational lags during the Late Glacial and early Holocene. Allerød summer temperatures range between 11 and 12°C based on pollen, whereas the cladoceran-inferred temperatures lie between 11 and 13°C. Pollen and cladocera-inferred reconstructions both suggest a drop to 9–10°C at the beginning of the Younger Dryas. Although the Allerød–Younger Dryas transition lasted 150–160 years in the oxygen-isotope stratigraphy, the pollen-inferred cooling took 180–190 years and the cladoceran-inferred cooling lasted 250–260 years. The pollen-inferred summer temperature rise to 11.5–12°C at the transition from the Younger Dryas to the Preboreal preceded the oxygen-isotope signal by several decades, whereas the cladoceran-inferred warming lagged. Major discrepancies between the pollen- and cladoceran-inference models are observed for the Preboreal, where the cladoceran-inference model suggests mean summer temperatures of up to 14–15°C. Both pollen- and cladoceran-inferred reconstructions suggest a cooling that may be related to the Gerzensee oscillation, but there is no evidence for a cooling synchronous with the Preboreal oscillation as recorded in the oxygen-isotope record. For the Gerzensee oscillation the inferred cooling was ca. 1 and 0.5°C based on pollen and cladocera, respectively, which lies well within the inherent prediction errors of the inference models.

Palynostratigraphy of the last centuries in Switzerland based on 23 lake and mire deposits: chronostratigraphic pollen markers, regional patterns, and local histories

A total of 23 pollen diagrams [stored in the Alpine Palynological Data-Base (ALPADABA), Geobotanical Institute, Bern] cover the last 100 to over 1000 years. The sites include 15 lakes, seven mires, and one soil profile distributed in the Jura Mts (three sites), Swiss Plateau (two sites), northern Pre-Alps and Alps (six sites), central Alps (five sites), southern Alps (three sites), and southern Pre-Alps (four sites) in the western and southern part of Switzerland or just outside the national borders. The pollen diagrams have both a high taxonomic resolution and a high temporal resolution, with sampling distances of 0.5–3 cm, equivalent to 1 to 11 years for the last 100 years and 8 to 130 years for earlier periods. The chronology is based on absolute dating (14 sites: 210Pb 11 sites; 14C six sites; varve counting two sites) or on biostratigraphic correlation among pollen diagrams. The latter relies mainly on trends in Cannabis sativa, Ambrosia, Mercurialis annua, and Ostrya-type pollen. Individual pollen stratigraphies are discussed and sites are compared within each region. The principle of designating local, extra-local, and regional pollen signals and vegetation is exemplified by two pairs of sites lying close together. Trends in biostratigraphies shared by a major part of the pollen diagrams allow the following generalisations. Forest declined in phases since medieval times up to the late 19th century. Abies and Fagus declined consistently, whereas the behaviour of short-lived trees and trees of moist habitats differed among sites (Alnus glutinosa-type, Alnus viridis, Betula, Corylus avellana). In the present century, however, Picea and Pinus increased, followed by Fraxinus excelsior in the second half of this century. Grassland (traced by Gramineae and Plantago lanceolata-type pollen) increased, replacing much of the forest, and declined again in the second half of this century. Nitrate enrichment of the vegetation (traced by Urtica) took place in the first half of this century. These trends reflect the intensification of forest use and the expansion of grassland from medieval times up to the end of the last century, whereas subsequently parts of the grassland became used more intensively and the marginal parts were abandoned for forest regrowth. In most pollen diagrams human impact is the dominant factor in explaining inferred changes in vegetation, but climatic change plays a role at three sites.