Atmosphere drives recent interannual variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N

The RAPID-MOCHA array has observed the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26.5°N since 2004. During 2009/2010, there was a transient 30% weakening of the AMOC driven by anomalies in geostrophic and Ekman transports. Here, we use simulations based on the Met Office Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM) to diagnose the relative importance of atmospheric forcings and internal ocean dynamics in driving the anomalous geostrophic circulation of 2009/10. Data assimilating experiments with FOAM accurately reproduce the mean strength and depth of the AMOC at 26.5°N. In addition, agreement between simulated and observed stream functions in the deep ocean is improved when we calculate the AMOC using a method that approximates the RAPID observations. The main features of the geostrophic circulation anomaly are captured by an ensemble of simulations without data-assimilation. These model results suggest that the atmosphere played a dominant role in driving recent interannual variability of the AMOC.

On the relationship between decadal buoyancy anomalies and variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Owing to the role of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean heat transport, AMOC variability is thought to play a role in climate variability on a wide range of time scales. This paper focuses on the potential role of the AMOC in climate variability on decadal time scales. Coupled and ocean-only general circulation models run in idealized geometries are utilized to study the relationships between decadal AMOC and buoyancy variability and determine whether the AMOC plays an active role in setting sea surface temperature on decadal time scales.DecadalAMOC variability is related to changes in the buoyancy field along the western boundary according to the thermal wind relation. Buoyancy anomalies originate in the upper ocean of the subpolar gyre and travel westward as baroclinic Rossby waves. When the buoyancy anomalies strike the western boundary, they are advected southward by the deep western boundary current, leading to latitudinally coherent AMOC variability. The AMOC is observed to respond passively to decadal buoyancy anomalies: although variability of the AMOC leads to meridional ocean heat transport anomalies, these transports are not responsible for creating the buoyancy anomalies in the subpolar gyre that drive AMOC variability.

Climatic simulations of the eastern Andes low-level jet and its dependency on convective parameterizations

The South American low level jet (SALLJ) of the Eastern Andes is investigated with Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations during the 2002-2003 austral summer using two convective parameterizations (Grell and Emanuel). The simulated SALLJ is compared with the special observations of SALLJEX (SALLJ Experiment). Both the Grell and Emanuel schemes adequately simulate the low level flow over South America. However, there are some intensity differences. Due to the larger (smaller) convective activity, the Emanuel (Grell) scheme simulates more intense (weaker) low level wind than analysis in the tropics and subtropics. The objectives criteria of Sugahara (SJ) and Bonner (BJ) were used for LLJ identification. When applied to the observations, both criteria suggest a larger frequency of the SALLJ in Santa Cruz, followed by Mariscal, Trinidad and Asuncin. In Mariscal and Asuncin, the diurnal cycle indicates that SJ occurs mainly at 12 UTCs (morning), while the BJ criterion presents the SALLJ as more homogenously distributed. The concentration into two of the four-times-a-day observations does not allow conclusions about the diurnal cycle in Santa Cruz and Trinidad. The simulated wind profiles result in a lower than observed frequency of SALLJ using both the SJ and BJ criteria, with fewer events obtained with the BJ. Due to the stronger simulated winds, the Emanuel scheme produces an equal or greater relative frequency of SALLJ than the Grell scheme. However, the Grell scheme using the SJ criterion simulates the SALLJ diurnal cycle closer to the observed one. Although some discrepancies between observed and simulated mean vertical profiles of the horizontal wind are noted, there is large agreement between the composites of the vertical structure of the SALLJ, especially when the SJ criterion is used with the Grell scheme. On an intraseasonal scale, a larger southward displacement of SALLJ in February and December when compared with January has been noted. The Grell and Emanuel schemes simulated this observed oscillation in the low-level flow. However, the spatial pattern and intensity of rainfall and circulation anomalies simulated by the Grell scheme are closer to the analyses than those obtained with the Emanuel scheme.

Influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical Atlantic climate and variability

The influence of the meridional overturning circulation on tropical Atlantic climate and variability has been investigated using the atmosphere-ocean coupled model Speedy-MICOM (Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model). In the ocean model MICOM the strength of the meridional overturning cell can be regulated by specifying the lateral boundary conditions. In case of a collapse of the basinwide meridional overturning cell the SST response in the Atlantic is characterized by a dipole with a cooling in the North Atlantic and a warming in the tropical and South Atlantic. The cooling in the North Atlantic is due to the decrease in the strength of the western boundary currents, which reduces the northward advection of heat. The warming in the tropical Atlantic is caused by a reduced ventilation of water originating from the South Atlantic. This effect is most prominent in the eastern tropical Atlantic during boreal summer when the mixed layer attains its minimum depth. As a consequence the seasonal cycle as well as the interannual variability in SST is reduced. The characteristics of the cold tongue mode are changed: the variability in the eastern equatorial region is strongly reduced and the largest variability is now in the Benguela, Angola region. Because of the deepening of the equatorial thermocline, variations in the thermocline depth in the eastern tropical Atlantic no longer significantly affect the mixed layer temperature. The gradient mode remains unaltered. The warming of the tropical Atlantic enhances and shifts the Hadley circulation. Together with the cooling in the North Atlantic, this increases the strength of the subtropical jet and the baroclinicity over the North Atlantic.

The role of subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows in simulated multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We investigate the respective role of variations in subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows for the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This is partly done by analysing long (order of 1000 years) control simulations with five coupled climate models. For all models, the maximum influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is found at about 45° N, while the maximum influence of variations in Nordic Seas overflows is rather found at 55 to 60° N. Regarding the two overflow branches, the influence of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow is, for all models, substantially larger than that of variations in the overflow across the Iceland–Scotland Ridge. The latter might, however, be underestimated, as the models in general do not realistically simulate the flow path of the Iceland–Scotland overflow water south of the Iceland–Scotland Ridge. The influence of variations in subpolar deep water formation is, on multimodel average, larger than that of variations in the Denmark Strait overflow. This is true both at 45° N, where the maximum standard deviation of decadal to multidecadal AMOC variability is located for all but one model, and at the more classical latitude of 30° N. At 30° N, variations in subpolar deep water formation and Denmark Strait overflow explain, on multimodel average, about half and one-third respectively of the decadal to multidecadal AMOC variance. Apart from analysing multimodel control simulations, we have performed sensitivity experiments with one of the models, in which we suppress the variability of either subpolar deep water formation or Nordic Seas overflows. The sensitivity experiments indicate that variations in subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows are not completely independent. We further conclude from these experiments that the decadal to multidecadal AMOC variability north of about 50° N is mainly related to variations in Nordic Seas overflows. At 45° N and south of this latitude, variations in both subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows contribute to the AMOC variability, with neither of the processes being very dominant compared to the other.

(Table 2) Oxygen isotopic of composition of Pliocene to late Pleistocene planktonic foraminifera of the Mediterranean Sea

Stable isotopic and micropaleontological studies were made of selected sapropels (organic-rich sediments) deposited in the Mediterranean Sea during the last 5.0 m.y. to determine the processes responsible for their formation. Distinct isotopic and faunal changes occur across sapropels of late Pleistocene, early Pleistocene and latest Pliocene age, while smaller isotopic changes and more stable faunal assemblages are associated with the early and mid-late Pliocene sapropels. The large d18O depletions and euryhaline fauna associated with latest Pliocene-Pleistocene sapropels supports a density stratification model with a low salinity surface layer. In contrast, early Pliocene and mid-late Pliocene sapropels appear to have been formed as the result of sluggish circulation and low oxygen contents in bottom waters of the eastern Mediterranean due to the stable, warm climatic conditions of that time period.

Small-scale variability of the current in the Strait of Bonifacio

Current dynamics in the Strait of Bonifacio (south Corsica) were investigated at a small scale during the STELLAMARE1 multidisciplinary cruise in summer 2012, using in situ measurements and modeling data. The Strait of Bonifacio is a particularly sensitive marine area in which specific conservation measures have been taken to preserve the natural environment and wild species. Good knowledge of the hydrodynamics in this area is essential to optimize the Marine Protected Area's management rules. Therefore, we used a high-resolution model (400 m) based on the MARS3D code to investigate the main flux exchanges and to formulate certain hypotheses about the formation of possible eddy structures. The aim of the present paper is first to synthetize the results obtained by combining Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler data, hydrological parameters, Lagrangian drifter data, and satellite observations such as MODIS OC5 chlorophyll a data or Metop-A AVHRR Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data. These elements are then used to validate the presence of the mesoscale eddies simulated by the model and their recurrence outside the cruise period. To complete the analysis, the response of the 3D hydrodynamical model was evaluated under two opposing wind systems and certain biases were detected. Strong velocities up to 1 m s(-1) were recorded in the east part due to the Venturi effect; a complementary system of vortices governed by Coriolis effect and west wind was observed in the west part, and horizontal stratification in the central part has been identified under typical wind condition.

Is there any imprint of the wind variability on the Atlantic Water circulation within the Arctic Basin?

The Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Basin is isolated from the atmosphere by the overlaying surface layer, yet observations have revealed that the velocities in this layer exhibit significant variations. Here analysis of a global ocean/sea ice model hindcast, complemented by experiments performed with an idealized process model, is used to investigate what controls the variability of AW circulation, with a focus on the role of wind forcing. The AW circulation carries the imprint of wind variations, both remotely over the Nordic and Barents Seas where they force the AW inflow variability, and locally over the Arctic Basin through the forcing of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre, which modulates and transfers the wind variability to the AW layer. The strong interplay between the circulation within the surface and AW layers suggests that both layers must be considered to understand variability in either.

Characterizing, modelling and understanding the climate variability of the deep water formation in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea

Observing, modelling and understanding the climate-scale variability of the deep water formation (DWF) in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea remains today very challenging. In this study, we first characterize the interannual variability of this phenomenon by a thorough reanalysis of observations in order to establish reference time series. These quantitative indicators include 31 observed years for the yearly maximum mixed layer depth over the period 1980–2013 and a detailed multi-indicator description of the period 2007–2013. Then a 1980–2013 hindcast simulation is performed with a fully-coupled regional climate system model including the high-resolution representation of the regional atmosphere, ocean, land-surface and rivers. The simulation reproduces quantitatively well the mean behaviour and the large interannual variability of the DWF phenomenon. The model shows convection deeper than 1000 m in 2/3 of the modelled winters, a mean DWF rate equal to 0.35 Sv with maximum values of 1.7 (resp. 1.6) Sv in 2013 (resp. 2005). Using the model results, the winter-integrated buoyancy loss over the Gulf of Lions is identified as the primary driving factor of the DWF interannual variability and explains, alone, around 50 % of its variance. It is itself explained by the occurrence of few stormy days during winter. At daily scale, the Atlantic ridge weather regime is identified as favourable to strong buoyancy losses and therefore DWF, whereas the positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation is unfavourable. The driving role of the vertical stratification in autumn, a measure of the water column inhibition to mixing, has also been analyzed. Combining both driving factors allows to explain more than 70 % of the interannual variance of the phenomenon and in particular the occurrence of the five strongest convective years of the model (1981, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2013). The model simulates qualitatively well the trends in the deep waters (warming, saltening, increase in the dense water volume, increase in the bottom water density) despite an underestimation of the salinity and density trends. These deep trends come from a heat and salt accumulation during the 1980s and the 1990s in the surface and intermediate layers of the Gulf of Lions before being transferred stepwise towards the deep layers when very convective years occur in 1999 and later. The salinity increase in the near Atlantic Ocean surface layers seems to be the external forcing that finally leads to these deep trends. In the future, our results may allow to better understand the behaviour of the DWF phenomenon in Mediterranean Sea simulations in hindcast, forecast, reanalysis or future climate change scenario modes. The robustness of the obtained results must be however confirmed in multi-model studies.

IODP Expedition 339 in the Gulf of Cadiz and off West Iberia : decoding the environmental significance of the Mediterranean outflow water and its global influence

IODP Expedition 339 drilled five sites in the Gulf of Cadiz and two off the west Iberian margin (November 2011 to January 2012), and recovered 5.5 km of sediment cores with an average recovery of 86.4%. The Gulf of Cadiz was targeted for drilling as a key location for the investigation of Mediterranean outflow water (MOW) through the Gibraltar Gateway and its influence on global circulation and climate. It is also a prime area for understanding the effects of tectonic activity on evolution of the Gibraltar Gateway and on margin sedimentation. We penetrated into the Miocene at two different sites and established a strong signal of MOW in the sedimentary record of the Gulf of Cadiz, following the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway. Preliminary results show the initiation of contourite deposition at 4.2–4.5 Ma, although subsequent research will establish whether this dates the onset of MOW. The Pliocene succession, penetrated at four sites, shows low bottom current activity linked with a weak MOW. Significant widespread unconformities, present in all sites but with hiatuses of variable duration, are interpreted as a signal of intensified MOW, coupled with flow confinement. The Quaternary succession shows a much more pronounced phase of contourite drift development, with two periods of MOW intensification separated by a widespread unconformity. Following this, the final phase of drift evolution established the contourite depositional system (CDS) architecture we see today. There is a significant climate control on this evolution of MOW and bottom-current activity. However, from the closure of the Atlantic–Mediterranean gateways in Spain and Morocco just over 6 Ma and the opening of the Gibraltar Gateway at 5.3 Ma, there has been an even stronger tectonic control on margin development, downslope sediment transport and contourite drift evolution. The Gulf of Cadiz is the world's premier contourite laboratory and thus presents an ideal testing ground for the contourite paradigm. Further study of these contourites will allow us to resolve outstanding issues related to depositional processes, drift budgets, and recognition of fossil contourites in the ancient record on shore. The expedition also verified an enormous quantity and extensive distribution of contourite sands that are clean and well sorted. These represent a relatively untapped and important exploration target for potential oil and gas reservoirs.

Dynamics of ''internal'' interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM

1] The poor predictability of the Indian summer monsoon ( ISM) appears to be due to the fact that a large fraction of interannual variability (IAV) is governed by unpredictable "internal'' low frequency variations. Mechanisms responsible for the internal IAV of the monsoon have not been clearly identified. Here, an attempt has been made to gain insight regarding the origin of internal IAV of the seasonal ( June - September, JJAS) mean rainfall from "internal'' IAV of the ISM simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) driven by fixed annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST). The underlying hypothesis that monsoon ISOs are responsible for internal IAV of the ISM is tested. The spatial and temporal characteristics of simulated summer intraseasonal oscillations ( ISOs) are found to be in good agreement with those observed. A long integration with the AGCM forced with observed SST, shows that ISO activity over the Asian monsoon region is not modulated by the observed SST variations. The internal IAV of ISM, therefore, appears to be decoupled from external IAV. Hence, insight gained from this study may be useful in understanding the observed internal IAV of ISM. The spatial structure of the ISOs has a significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season ( seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broad-band nature of the ISO spectrum allowing the time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relation is a manifestation of the binomial character of rainfall time series. The remaining 50% of the IAV may arise due to land-surface processes, interaction between high frequency variability and ISOs, etc.

Long-term variability of the siphonophores Muggiaea atlantica and M. kochi in the Western English Channel

We investigated long-term variability of the calycophoran siphonophores Muggiaea atlantica and Muggiaea kochi in the Western English Channel (WEC) between 1930 and 2011. Our aims were to describe long-term changes in abundance and temporal distribution in relation to local environmental dynamics. In order to better understand mechanisms that regulate the species’ populations, we identified periods that were characteristic of in situ population growth and the environmental optima associated with these events. Our results show that between 1930 and the 1960s both M. atlantica and M. kochi were transient components of the WEC ecosystem. In the late 1960s M. atlantica, successfully established a resident population in the WEC, while the occurrence of M. kochi became increasingly sporadic. Once established as a resident species, the seasonal abundance and distribution of M. atlantica increased. Analysis of environmental conditions associated with in situ population growth revealed that temperature and prey were key determinants of the seasonal distribution and abundance of M. atlantica. Salinity was shown to have an indirect effect, likely representing a proxy for water circulation in the WEC. Anomalies in the seasonal cycle of salinity, indicating deviation from the usual circulation pattern in the WEC, were negatively associated with in situ growth, suggesting dispersal of the locally developing M. atlantica population. However, our findings identified complexity in the relationship between characteristics of the environment and M. atlantica variability. The transition from a period of transiency (1930–1968) to residency (1969–2011) was tentatively attributed to structural changes in the WEC ecosystem that occurred under the forcing of wider-scale hydroclimatic changes.

Dynamics of the Indonesian seas circulation. Part II – The role of pressure head

The aim of this paper is to analyze the role of the pressure head, i.e., the difference of total pressure forces acting on the Indonesian seas waters from the western Pacific and the eastern Indian Ocean, in driving the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and in determining the total transport of the ITF. These questions have been discussed in the literature but no consensus has been reached. A regional model of the Indonesian seas circulation has been developed that properly resolves all major topographic features in the region. The results of model runs have been used to calculate all components of the overall momentum balance. The estimates disclose that the dynamical balance is primarily between the volume integrated Coriolis acceleration, pressure gradient and the area integral of local wind stress. It is shown that consideration of components of momentum balance in the direction of the outflow through the Indian Ocean port leads to the formulation of a diagnostic relation between total inflow transports due to the Mindanao and New Guinea Coastal Currents and the external pressure head, internal pressure head, bottom form stress, and area integrated wind stress. Based on this relation, it is concluded that the external pressure head is not the major driving force of the ITF, which is why there is no unique relation between the total transport of the ITF and the external pressure head. However, Wyrtki's suggestion to monitor the variability of the total transport of the ITF by measurement of the sea-surface-height difference between the western Pacific and the eastern Indian Ocean is validated.