Synergistic effects of climate and fishing in a marine ecosystem

Current climate change and overfishing are affecting the productivity and structure of marine ecosystems. This situation is unprecedented for the marine biosphere and it is essential to understand the mechanisms and pathways by which ecosystems respond. We report that climate change and overfishing are likely to be responsible for a rapid restructuring of a highly productive marine ecosystem with effects throughout the pelagos and the benthos. In the mid-1980s, climate change, consequent modifications in the North Sea plankton, and fishing, all reduced North Sea cod recruitment. In this region, production of many benthic species respond positively and immediately to temperature. Analysis of a long-term, spatially extensive biological (plankton and cod) and physical (sea surface temperature) dataset suggests that synchronous changes in cod numbers and sea temperature have established an extensive trophic cascade favoring lower trophic level groups over economic fisheries. A proliferation of jellyfish that we detect may signal the climax of these changes. This modified North Sea ecology may provide a clear indication of the synergistic consequences of coincident climate change and overfishing. The extent of the ecosystem restructuring that has occurred in the North Sea suggests we are unlikely to reverse current climate and human-induced effects through ecosystem resource management in the short term. Rather, we should understand and adapt to new ecological regimes. This implies that fisheries management policies will have to be fully integrated with the ecological consequences of climate change to prevent a similar collapse in an exploited marine ecosystem elsewhere.

Contact zone dynamics and the evolution of reproductive isolation in a North American treefrog, the spring peeper (Pseudacris crucifer)

Despite over seven decades of speciation research and 25 years of phylogeographic studies, a comprehensive understanding of mechanisms that generate biological species remains elusive. In temperate zones, the pervasiveness of range fragmentation and subsequent range expansions suggests that secondary contact between diverging lineages may be important in the evolution of species. Thus, such contact zones provide compelling opportunities to investigate evolutionary processes, particularly the roles of geographical isolation in initiating, and indirect selection against hybrids in completing (reinforcement), the evolution of reproductive isolation and speciation. The spring peeper (Pseudacris crucifer) has six well-supported mitochondrial lineages many of which are now in secondary contact. Here I investigate the evolutionary consequences of secondary contact of two such lineages (Eastern and Interior) in Southwestern Ontario using genetic, morphological, acoustical, experimental, and behavioural evidence to show accentuated divergence of the mate recognition system in sympatry. Mitochondrial and microsatellite data distinguish these two lineages but also show ongoing hybridization. Bayesian assignment tests and cline analysis imply asymmetrical introgression of Eastern lineage nuclear markers into Interior populations. Male calls are divergent between Eastern and Interior allopatric populations and show asymmetrical reproductive character displacement in sympatry. Female preference of pure lineage individuals is also exaggerated in sympatry, with hybrids showing intermediate traits and preference. I suggest that these patterns are most consistent with secondary reinforcement. I assessed levels of post-zygotic isolation between the Eastern and Interior lineages using a laboratory hybridization experiment. Hybrid tadpoles showed equal to or greater fitness than their pure lineage counterparts, but this may be countered through competition. More deformities and developmental anomalies in hybrid tadpoles further suggest post-zygotic isolation. Despite evidence for pre-mating isolation between the two lineages, isolation appears incomplete (i.e. hybridization is ongoing). I hypothesize that potentially less attractive hybrids may circumvent female choice by adopting satellite behaviour. Although mating tactics are related to body size, genetic status may play a role. I show that pure Eastern males almost always engage in calling, while hybrids adopt a satellite tactic. An absence of assortative mating, despite evidence of female preference, suggests successful satellite interception possibly facilitating introgression.

An 8000-year history of landscape, climate and copper exploitation in the Middle East: the Wadi Faynan and the Wadi Dana National Reserve in southern Jordan

Investigations of geomorphology, geoarchaeology, pollen, palynofacies, and charcoal indicate the comparative scales and significance of palaeoenvironmental changes throughout the Holocene at the junction between the hyper-arid hot Wadi â??Arabah desert and the front of the Mediterranean-belt Mountains of Edom in southern Jordan through a series of climatic changes and episodes of intense mining and smelting of copper ores. Early Holocene alluviation followed the impact of Neolithic grazers but climate drove fluvial geomorphic change in the Late Holocene, with a major arid episode corresponding chronologically with the â??Little Ice Ageâ?? causing widespread alluviation. The harvesting of wood for charcoal may have been sufficiently intense and widespread to affect the capacity of intensively harvested tree species to respond to a period of greater precipitation deduced for the Roman-Byzantine period - a property that affects both taphonomic and biogeographical bases for the interpretation of palynological evidence from arid-lands with substantial industrial histories. Studies of palynofacies have provided a record of human and climatic causes of soil erosion, and the changing intensity of the use of fire over time. The patterns of vegetational, climatic change and geomorphic changes are set out for this area for the last 8000 years.

Consociationalism and the evolution of political cleavages in Northern Ireland, 1989-2004

Political cleavages are often understood as deriving from either deep-rooted social divisions or institutional incentives. Contemporary Northern Ireland provides a test of the mutability of apparently entrenched cleavages to institutional change. Research undertaken before the ceasefire in the 1990s found noticeable asymmetries in the patterns of cleavage within the unionist and nationalist blocs. Within the unionist bloc, economic 'left-right' issues formed the main ideological division between the two major unionist parties. This contrasted with an ethno-national source of ideological division between the two nationalist parties. The emergence of a consociational form of government structure since then has demonstrated the ability of institutional incentives to swiftly reform some aspects of party competition however. As evidence of this, we show that between 1989 and 2004 there was little change in the sources of support for Sinn F�©in relative to the SDLP, but the influence of left-right ideology within the unionist bloc was negated as the influence of ethno-nationalism dramatically increased.

Molecular Hydrogen Emission from Protoplanetary Disks: Effects of X-ray Irradiation and Dust Evolution

Detailed models for the density and temperature profiles of gas and dust in protoplanetary disks are constructed by taking into account X-ray and UV irradiation from a central T Tauri star, as well as dust size growth and settling toward the disk midplane. The spatial and size distributions of dust grains are numerically computed by solving the coagulation equation for settling dust particles, with the result that the mass and total surface area of dust grains per unit volume of the gas in the disks are very small, except at the midplane. The H2 level populations and line emission are calculated using the derived physical structure of the disks. X-ray irradiation is the dominant heating source of the gas in the inner disk and in the surface layer, while the UV heating dominates otherwise. If the central star has strong X-ray and weak UV radiation, the H2 level populations are controlled by X-ray pumping, and the X-rayinduced transition lines could be observable. If the UV irradiation is strong, the level populations are controlled by thermal collisions or UV pumping, depending on the dust properties. As the dust particles evolve in the disks, the gas temperature at the disk surface drops because the grain photoelectric heating becomes less efficient. This makes the level populations change from LTE to non-LTE distributions, which results in changes to the line ratios. Our results suggest that dust evolution in protoplanetary disks could be observable through the H2 line ratios. The emission lines are strong from disks irradiated by strong UV and X-rays and possessing small dust grains; such disks will be good targets in which to observe H2 emission.