Climate and human forcing of Alpine river flow

River flow in Alpine environments is likely to be highly sensitive to climate change because of the effects of warming upon snow and ice, and hence the intra-annual distribution of river runoff. It is also likely to be influenced strongly by human impacts both upon hydrology (e.g. flow abstraction) and river regulation. This paper compares the river flow and sediment flux of two Alpine drainage basins over the last 5 to 7 decades, one that is largely unimpacted by human activities, one strongly impacted by flow abstraction for hydroelectricity. The analysis shows that both river flow and sediment transport capacity are strongly dependent upon the effects of temperature and precipitation availability upon snow accumulation. As the latter tends to increase annual maximum flows, and given the non-linear form of most sediment transport laws, current warming trends may lead to increased sedimentation in Alpine rivers. However, extension to a system impacted upon by flow abstraction reveals the dominant effect that human activity can have upon river sedimentation but also how human response to sediment management has co-evolved with climate forcing to make disentangling the two very difficult.

New Climate Change Related EC Directives and Their Interrelations to Green Electricity and Certificate Practices

Työn päätavoite on tutkia vihreän sähkön ja sertifikaattien kaupan ja EY:n uusien ilmastonmuutosta koskevien direktiivien ja direktiiviehdotusten välisiä yhteyksiä. Tutkimuksessa käsitellään direktiiviä sähköntuotannosta uusiutuvilla energialähteillä ja direktiiviehdotuksia Euroopan Unionin alueen päästökaupasta sekä yhdistetyn sähkön ja lämmön tuotannon lisäämisestä. Työ keskittyy erään suomalaisen metsäteollisuusyrityksen toimiin ilmastonmuutoksen hidastamiseksi. Tutkimus keskittyy pääosin EU:n suunnitelmaan aloittaa Unionin jäsenvaltioiden välinen päästökauppa, koska tämä järjestelmä tulee toteutuessaan olemaan teollisuuden kannalta merkittävä. Tilannetta on analysoitu neljän sellu- ja paperitehtaan hiilidioksidipäästölaskelmien avulla. Työssä kehitettyjä laskumalleja voidaan käyttää avuksi yhtiön muilla tehtailla. Tämän lisäksi työssä on luotu malli energiainvestointien arvioimiseksi tulevaisuudessa ottamalla päästöoikeuden hinnan vaikutus huomioon. Päästökaupan vaikutukset pohjoismaisilla vapautuneilla sähkömarkkinoilla on analysoity, koska teollinen sähkönhankinta on suuresti riippuvainen tästä markkinasta. Suomen metsäteollisuuden oma yhdistetty sähkön ja lämmön tuotanto erityisesti uusiutuvista energialähteistä tulee olemaan entistäkin tärkeämpää tiukentuvassa toimintaympäristössä. Tällä hetkellä on käynnissä kokeilu lisäarvon saamiseksi omalle sähköntuotannolle. Tällä haetaan kokemuksia ja valmiutta tulevaa päästökauppaa varten.

Potential of local bio-geoengineering to mitigate dangerous temperature increases in a global warming scenario

Crops and forests are already responding to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperatures. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance plant photosynthesis. Nevertheless, after long-term exposure, plants acclimate and show a reduction in photosynthetic activity (i.e. down-regulation). If in the future the Earth"s temperature is allowed to rise further, plant ecosystems and food security will both face significant threats. The scientific community has recognized that an increase in global temperatures should remain below 2°C in order to combat climate change. All this evidence suggests that, in parallel with reductions in CO2 emissions, a more direct approach to mitigate global warming should be considered. We propose here that global warming could be partially mitigated directly through local bio-geoengineering approaches. For example, this could be done through the management of solar radiation at surface level, i.e. by increasing global albedo. Such an effect has been documented in the south-eastern part of Spain, where a significant surface air temperature trend of -0.3°C per decade has been observed due to a dramatic expansion of greenhouse horticulture.

Identifying strategies for mitigating the global warming impact of the EU-25 economy using a multi-objective input-output approach

Global warming mitigation has recently become a priority worldwide. A large body of literature dealing with energy related problems has focused on reducing greenhouse gases emissions at an engineering scale. In contrast, the minimization of climate change at a wider macroeconomic level has so far received much less attention. We investigate here the issue of how to mitigate global warming by performing changes in an economy. To this end, we make use of a systematic tool that combines three methods: linear programming, environmentally extended input output models, and life cycle assessment principles. The problem of identifying key economic sectors that contribute significantly to global warming is posed in mathematical terms as a bi criteria linear program that seeks to optimize simultaneously the total economic output and the total life cycle CO2 emissions. We have applied this approach to the European Union economy, finding that significant reductions in global warming potential can be attained by regulating specific economic sectors. Our tool is intended to aid policymakers in the design of more effective public policies for achieving the environmental and economic targets sought.

Consequences of warming and resource quality on the stoichiometry and nutrient cycling of a stream shredder

As a result of climate change, streams are warming and their runoff has been decreasing in most temperate areas. These changes can affect consumers directly by increasing their metabolic rates and modifying their physiology and indirectly by changing the quality of the resources on which organisms depend. In this study, a common stream detritivore (Echinogammarus berilloni Catta) was reared at two temperatures (15 and 20°C) and fed Populus nigra L. leaves that had been conditioned either in an intermittent or permanent reach to evaluate the effects of resource quality and increased temperatures on detritivore performance, stoichiometry and nutrient cycling. The lower quality (i.e., lower protein, soluble carbohydrates and higher C:P and N:P ratios) of leaves conditioned in pools resulted in compensatory feeding and lower nutrient retention capacity by E. berilloni. This effect was especially marked for phosphorus, which was unexpected based on predictions of ecological stoichiometry. When individuals were fed pool-conditioned leaves at warmer temperatures, their growth rates were higher, but consumers exhibited less efficient assimilation and higher mortality. Furthermore, the shifts to lower C:P ratios and higher lipid concentrations in shredder body tissues suggest that structural molecules such as phospholipids are preserved over other energetic C-rich macromolecules such as carbohydrates. These effects on consumer physiology and metabolism were further translated into feces and excreta nutrient ratios. Overall, our results show that the effects of reduced leaf quality on detritivore nutrient retention were more severe at higher temperatures because the shredders were not able to offset their increased metabolism with increased consumption or more efficient digestion when fed pool-conditioned leaves. Consequently, the synergistic effects of impaired food quality and increased temperatures might not only affect the physiology and survival of detritivores but also extend to other trophic compartments through detritivore-mediated nutrient cycling.

Factors influencing zooplankton size structure at contrasting temperatures in coastal shallow lakes: Implications for effects of climate change

We assessed the importance of temperature, salinity, and predation for the size structure of zooplankton and provided insight into the future ecological structure and function of shallow lakes in a warmer climate. Artificial plants were introduced in eight comparable coastal shallow brackish lakes located at two contrasting temperatures: cold-temperate and Mediterranean climate region. Zooplankton, fish, and macroinvertebrates were sampled within the plants and at open-water habitats. The fish communities of these brackish lakes were characterized by small-sized individuals, highly associated with submerged plants. Overall, higher densities of small planktivorous fish were recorded in the Mediterranean compared to the cold-temperate region, likely reflecting temperature-related differences as have been observed in freshwater lakes. Our results suggest that fish predation is the major control of zooplankton size structure in brackish lakes, since fish density was related to a decrease in mean body size and density of zooplankton and this was reflected in a unimodal shaped biomass-sizespectrum with dominance of small sizes and low size diversity. Salinity might play a more indirect role by shaping zooplankton communities toward more salt-tolerant species. In a global-warming perspective, these results suggest that changes in the trophic structure of shallow lakes in temperate regions might be expected as a result of the warmer temperatures and the potentially associated increases in salinity. The decrease in the density of largebodied zooplankton might reduce the grazing on phytoplankton and thus the chances of maintaining the clear water state in these ecosystems

Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Climate risk in maize crop in the northeastern of Brazil based on climate change scenarios

This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on the agricultural zoning of climatic risk in maize crop cultivated in the Northeastern of Brazil, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. The water balance model, combined with geospatial technologies, was used to identify areas of the study region where the crops could suffer yield restrictions due to climate change. The data used in the study were the time series of rainfall with at least 30 years of daily data, crop coefficients, potential evapotranspiration and duration of the crop cycle. The scenarios of the increasing of air temperature used in the simulations were of 1.5ºC, 3ºC and 5ºC. The sowing date of maize crop from January to March appears to be less affected by warming scenarios than the sowing in November and December or April and May.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Climate driven changes in temperature, pH and food quality : effects on copepod reproduction

Increased emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are causing an anthropogenic climate change. The resulting global warming challenges the ability of organisms to adapt to the new temperature conditions. However, warming is not the only major threat. In marine environments, dissolution of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere causes a decrease in surface water pH, the so called ocean acidification. The temperature and acidification effects can interact, and create even larger problems for the marine flora and fauna than either of the effects would cause alone. I have used Baltic calanoid copepods (crustacean zooplankton) as my research object and studied their growth and stress responses using climate predictions projected for the next century. I have studied both direct temperature and pH effects on copepods, and indirect effects via their food: the changing phytoplankton spring bloom composition and toxic cyanobacterium. The main aims of my thesis were: 1) to find out how warming and acidification combined with a toxic cyanobacterium affect copepod reproductive success (egg production, egg viability, egg hatching success, offspring development) and oxidative balance (antioxidant capacity, oxidative damage), and 2) to reveal the possible food quality effects of spring phytoplankton bloom composition dominated by diatoms or dinoflagellates on reproducing copepods (egg production, egg hatching, RNA:DNA ratio). The two copepod genera used, Acartia sp. and Eurytemora affinis are the dominating mesozooplankton taxa (0.2 – 2 mm) in my study area the Gulf of Finland. The 20°C temperature seems to be within the tolerance limits of Acartia spp., because copepods can adapt to the temperature phenotypically by adjusting their body size. Copepods are also able to tolerate a pH decrease of 0.4 from present values, but the combination of warm water and decreased pH causes problems for them. In my studies, the copepod oxidative balance was negatively influenced by the interaction of these two environmental factors, and egg and nauplii production were lower at 20°C and lower pH, than at 20°C and ambient pH. However, presence of toxic cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena improved the copepod oxidative balance and helped to resist the environmental stress, in question. In addition, adaptive maternal effects seem to be an important adaptation mechanism in a changing environment, but it depends on the condition of the female copepod and her diet how much she can invest in her offspring. I did not find systematic food quality difference between diatoms and dinoflagellates. There are both good and bad diatom and dinoflagellate species. Instead, the dominating species in the phytoplankton bloom composition has a central role in determining the food quality, although copepods aim at obtaining as a balanced diet as possible by foraging on several species. If the dominating species is of poor quality it can cause stress when ingested, or lead to non-optimal foraging if rejected. My thesis demonstrates that climate change induced water temperature and pH changes can cause problems to Baltic Sea copepod communities. However, their resilience depends substantially on their diet, and therefore the response of phytoplankton to the environmental changes. As copepods are an important link in pelagic food webs, their future success can have far reaching consequences, for example on fish stocks.

Impacts of Climate variability on Agriculture in Kerala

The study revealed that southwest monsoon rainfall in Kerala has been declining while increasing in post monsoon season. The annual rainfall exhibits a cyclic trend of 40-60 years, with a significant decline in recent decades. The intensity of climatological droughts was increasing across the State of Kerala through it falls under heavy rainfall zone due to unimodal rainfall pattern. The moisture index across the State of Kerala was moving from B4 to B3 humid, indicating that the State was moving from wetness to dryness within the humid climate.The study confirms that a warming Kerala is real as maximum, minimum and mean temperatures and temperature ranges are increasing. The rate of increase in maximum temperature was high (1.46°C) across the high ranges, followed by the coastal belt (1.09°C) of Kerala while the rate of increase was relatively marginal (0.25°C) across the midlands. The rate of increase in temperature across the high ranges is probably high because of deforestation. It indicates that the highranges and coastal belts in Kerala are vulnerable to global warming and climate change when compared to midlands.Interestingly, the trend in annual rainfall is increasing at Pampadumpara (Idukki), while declining at Ambalavayal across the highranges. In the case of maximum temperature, it was showing increasing trend at Pampadumpara while declining trend at Ambalavayal. In the case of minimum temperature it is declining at Pampadumpara while increasing in Ambalavalal.The paddy productivity in Kerala during kharif / virippu is unlikely to decline due to increasing temperature on the basis of long term climate change, but likely to decline to a considerable extent due to prolonged monsoon season, followed by unusual summer rains as noticed in 2007-08 and 2010-11.All the plantation crops under study are vulnerable to climate variability such as floods and droughts rather than long term changes in temperature and rainfall.

Coconut Phenology and Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change

The present investigation on “Coconut Phenology and Yield Response to Climate Variability and Change” was undertaken at the experimental site, at the Regional Station, Coconut Development Board, KAU Campus, Vellanikkara. Ten palms each of eight-year-old coconut cultivars viz., Tiptur Tall, Kuttiadi (WCT), Kasaragod (WCT) and Komadan (WCT) were randomly selected.The study therefore, reinforces our traditional knowledge that the coconut palm is sensitive to changing weather conditions during the period from primordium initiation to harvest of nuts (about 44 months). Absence of rainfall from December to May due to early withdrawal of northeast monsoon, lack of pre monsoon showers and late onset of southwest monsoon adversely affect the coconut productivity to a considerable extent in the following year under rainfed conditions. The productivity can be increased by irrigating the coconut palm during the dry periods.Increase in temperature, aridity index, number of severe summer droughts and decline in rainfall and moisture index were the major factors for a marginal decline or stagnation in coconut productivity over a period of time, though various developmental schemes were in operation for sustenance of coconut production in the State of Kerala. It can be attributed to global warming and climate change. Therefore, there is a threat to coconut productivity in the ensuing decades due to climate variability and change. In view of the above, there is an urgent need for proactive measures as a part of climate change adaptation to sustain coconut productivity in the State of Kerala.The coconut productivity is more vulnerable to climate variability such as summer droughts rather than climate change in terms of increase in temperature and decline in rainfall, though there was a marginal decrease (1.6%) in the decade of 1981-2009 when compared to that of 1951-80. This aspect needs to be examined in detail by coconut development agencies such as Coconut Development Board and State Agriculture Department for remedial measures. Otherwise, the premier position of Kerala in terms of coconut production is likely to be lost in the ensuing years under the projected climate change scenario. Among the four cultivars studied, Tiptur Tall appears to be superior in terms of reproduction phase and nut yield. This needs to be examined by the coconut breeders in their crop improvement programme as a part of stress tolerant under rainfed conditions. Crop mix and integrated farming are supposed to be the best combination to sustain development in the long run under the projected climate change scenarios. Increase in coconut area under irrigation during summer with better crop management and protection measures also are necessary measures to increase coconut productivity since the frequency of intensity of summer droughts is likely to increase under projected global warming scenario.

Impact of climate change on hetrotrophic bacterial communities in the water and sediment of kongsfjord in norwegian artic

Considering the extent of warming in the artic region and the resultant changes in the dynamic marine enviornments there is a need to monitor the bacterial diversity in the fjord enviornments especially in terms of cultivable bacteria. The present study reports the diversity of cultivable hetrotrophic bacteria from the water and sediment samples of kongsfjord their growth responses to important enviornmental variables and ability to produce industrially important hydrolytic enzymes.

Individuals' (re-)action in the face of global warming

Climate change remains a major challenge for today’s and future societies due to its immense impacts on human lives and the natural environment. This thesis investigates the extent to which individuals are willing and prepared to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adjust to new climatic conditions in order to cope with the consequences of climate change and reduce the severity of potential negative impacts. The thesis thereby combines research in the fields of the private provision of environmental public goods and adaptation to climate change, which is still widely unconnected in the existing literature. The six contributions of this thesis mainly focus on microeconometric analyses using data from international surveys in China, Germany, and the USA. The main findings are: (i) A substantial share of individuals is willing to voluntarily contribute to climate protection and to adapt to climatic change. The engagement in both strategies is positively interrelated at the individual level and the analyses reveal hardly any evidence that adaptation activities crowd out individuals’ incentives to engage in climate protection. (ii) The main determinants of individuals’ adaptation activities seem to be the subjective risk perception as well as socio-economic and socio-demographic characteristics like age, gender, education, and income, while their climate protection efforts are found to be broadly motivated by financial advantages from these activities and additional immaterial benefits. (iii) The empirical findings also suggest a significantly positive relationship between certain climate protection activities. Substitutions are found to occur merely if one measure is perceived to be more effective in providing climate protection or if individuals have high environmental preferences. (iv) This thesis further reveals a common understanding of a (normatively) fair burden-sharing in international climate policy across citizens in China, Germany, and the USA. The highest preferences are found for the accountability principle.