985 resultados para Climate Changes
Resumo:
Les cyanobactéries ont une place très importante dans les écosystèmes aquatiques et un nombre important d’espèces considéré comme nuisible de par leur production de métabolites toxiques. Ces cyanotoxines possèdent des propriétés très variées et ont souvent été associées à des épisodes d’empoisonnement. L’augmentation des épisodes d’efflorescence d’origine cyanobactériennes et le potentiel qu’ils augmentent avec les changements climatiques a renchéri l’intérêt de l’étude des cyanobactéries et de leurs toxines. Considérant la complexité chimique des cyanotoxines, le développement de méthodes de détection simples, sensibles et rapides est toujours considéré comme étant un défi analytique. Considérant ces défis, le développement de nouvelles approches analytiques pour la détection de cyanotoxines dans l’eau et les poissons ayant été contaminés par des efflorescences cyanobactériennes nuisibles a été proposé. Une première approche consiste en l’utilisation d’une extraction sur phase solide en ligne couplée à une chromatographie liquide et à une détection en spectrométrie de masse en tandem (SPE-LC-MS/MS) permettant l’analyse de six analogues de microcystines (MC), de l’anatoxine (ANA-a) et de la cylindrospermopsine (CYN). La méthode permet une analyse simple et rapide et ainsi que la séparation chromatographique d’ANA-a et de son interférence isobare, la phénylalanine. Les limites de détection obtenues se trouvaient entre 0,01 et 0,02 μg L-1 et des concentrations retrouvées dans des eaux de lacs du Québec se trouvaient entre 0,024 et 36 μg L-1. Une deuxième méthode a permis l’analyse du b-N-méthylamino-L-alanine (BMAA), d’ANA-a, de CYN et de la saxitoxine (STX) dans les eaux de lac contaminés. L’analyse de deux isomères de conformation du BMAA a été effectuée afin d’améliorer la sélectivité de la détection. L’utilisation d’une SPE manuelle permet la purification et préconcentration des échantillons et une dérivatisation à base de chlorure de dansyle permet une chromatographie simplifiée. L’analyse effectuée par LC couplée à la spectrométrie de masse à haute résolution (HRMS) et des limites de détections ont été obtenues entre 0,007 et 0,01 µg L-1. Des échantillons réels ont été analysés avec des concentrations entre 0,01 et 0,3 µg L-1 permettant ainsi la confirmation de la présence du BMAA dans les efflorescences de cyanobactéries au Québec. Un deuxième volet du projet consiste en l’utilisation d’une technologie d’introduction d’échantillon permettant des analyses ultra-rapides (< 15 secondes/échantillons) sans étape chromatographique, la désorption thermique à diode laser (LDTD) couplée à l’ionisation chimique à pression atmosphérique (APCI) et à la spectrométrie de masse (MS). Un premier projet consiste en l’analyse des MC totales par l’intermédiaire d’une oxydation de Lemieux permettant un bris de la molécule et obtenant une fraction commune aux multiples congénères existants des MC. Cette fraction, le MMPB, est analysée, après une extraction liquide-liquide, par LDTD-APCI-MS/MS. Une limite de détection de 0,2 µg L-1 a été obtenue et des concentrations entre 1 et 425 µg L-1 ont été trouvées dans des échantillons d’eau de lac contaminés du Québec. De plus, une analyse en parallèle avec des étalons pour divers congénères des MC a permis de suggérer la possible présence de congénères ou d’isomères non détectés. Un deuxième projet consiste en l’analyse directe d’ANA-a par LDTD-APCI-HRMS pour résoudre son interférence isobare, la phénylalanine, grâce à la détection à haute résolution. La LDTD n’offre pas de séparation chromatographique et l’utilisation de la HRMS permet de distinguer les signaux d’ANA-a de ceux de la phénylalanine. Une limite de détection de 0,2 µg L-1 a été obtenue et la méthode a été appliquée sur des échantillons réels d’eau avec un échantillon positif en ANA-a avec une concentration de 0,21 µg L-1. Finalement, à l’aide de la LDTD-APCI-HRMS, l’analyse des MC totales a été adaptée pour la chair de poisson afin de déterminer la fraction libre et liée des MC et comparer les résultats avec des analyses conventionnelles. L’utilisation d’une digestion par hydroxyde de sodium précédant l’oxydation de Lemieux suivi d’une purification par SPE a permis d’obtenir une limite de détection de 2,7 µg kg-1. Des échantillons de poissons contaminés ont été analysés, on a retrouvé des concentrations en MC totales de 2,9 et 13,2 µg kg-1 comparativement aux analyses usuelles qui avaient démontré un seul échantillon positif à 2 µg kg-1, indiquant la possible présence de MC non détectés en utilisant les méthodes conventionnelles.
Resumo:
L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’acquérir une connaissance détaillée sur l’évolution spatiale de la température de surface du sol (GST) au mont Jacques-Cartier et sur la réponse thermique de son îlot de pergélisol alpin aux changements climatiques passés et futurs. L’étude est basée sur un ensemble de mesures de température (GST, sous-sol) et de neige, ainsi que des modèles spatiaux de distribution potentielle de la GST et des simulations numériques du régime thermique du sol. Les résultats montrent que la distribution de la GST sur le plateau est principalement corrélée avec la répartition du couvert nival. Au-dessus de la limite de la végétation, le plateau est caractérisé par un couvert de neige peu épais et discontinu en hiver en raison de la topographie du site et l’action des forts vents. La GST est alors couplée avec les températures de l’air amenant des conditions froides en surface. Dans les îlots de krummholz et les dépressions topographiques sur les versants SE sous le vent, la neige soufflée du plateau s’accumule en un couvert très épais induisant des conditions de surface beaucoup plus chaude que sur le plateau dû à l’effet isolant de la neige. En raison de la quasi-absence de neige en hiver et de la nature du substrat, la réponse du pergélisol du sommet du mont Jacques-Cartier au signal climatique est très rapide. De 1978 à 2014, la température du sol a augmenté à toutes les profondeurs au niveau du forage suivant la même tendance que les températures de l’air. Si la tendance au réchauffement se poursuit telle que prévue par les simulations climatiques produites par le consortium Ouranos, le pergélisol pourrait disparaître d’ici à 2040-2050.
Resumo:
The present work is an attempt to understand the characteristics of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Asian summer monsoon region, more specifically over the Indian subcontinent. Mainly three important parameters are taken such as zonal wind, temperature and ozone over the UT/LS of the Asian summer monsoon region. It made a detailed study of its interannual variability and characteristics of theses parameters during the Indian summer monsoon period. Monthly values of zonal wind and temperature from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1960-2002 are used for the present study. Also the daily overpass total ozone data for the 12 Indian stations (from low latitude to high latitudes) from the TOMS Nimbus 7 satellite for the period 1979 to 1992 were also used to understand the total ozone variation over the Indian region. The study reveals that if QBO phases in the stratosphere is easterly or weak westerly then the respective monsoon is found to be DRY or below Normal . On the other hand, if the phase is westerly or weak easterly the respective Indian summer monsoon is noted as a WET year. This connection of stratospheric QBO phases and Indian summer monsoon gives more insight in to the long-term predictions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Wavelet analysis and EOF methods are the two advanced statistical techniques used in the present study to explore more information of the zonal wind that from the smaller scale to higher scale variability over the Asian summer monsoon region. The interannual variability of temperature for different stratospheric and tropospheric levels over the Asian summer monsoon region have been studied. An attempt has been made to understand the total ozone characteristics and its interannual variablilty over 12 Indian stations spread from south latitudes to north latitudes. Finally it found that the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere contribute significantly to monsoon variability and climate changes. It is also observed that there exists a link between the stratospheric QBO and Indian summer monsoon
Resumo:
Cochin estuary is a shallow brackish water body situated on the south west coast of India. It is a tropical positive estuary extending between 90 40’ and 100 12’ N and 760 10’and 760 30’ E with its northern boundary at Azhikode and southern boundary at Thannermukkom bund.The abundance of benthic fauna in an ecosystem shows the close relationship to its environment and reflects the characteristics of an ecological niche. Seasonal and monthly variations in the distribution of macrobenthos in relation to sediment characteristics were conducted in Cochin estuary from 2009-10 periods. Oxidation-reduction potential showed reducing trends that affected the distribution and diversity of fauna. Seasonal variations in water quality and river discharge pattern affected the faunal composition in the different stations. Sewage mixing was the principal source of organic pollution in the Cochin estuary. The sediment pH was generally on the alkaline side ranging from 4.99 at St.9 and 8.33 at St.1.The Eh ranged from -11mV at St.3 to -625mV at St.2.The temperature varied from 260C to 320C in the estuary. The moisture content ranged from 1.63 to 12.155%, that of organic carbon from 0 09 at St. 6 to 4.29% at St.9 and that of organic matter from 0.16 to 7.39%. Seasonally, the average of Eh was highest during the monsoon (156.22 mV) and in the pre monsoon (140.94 mV). The average pH for the 9 study stations was 7.68 during monsoon period and 7.08 during post monsoon. Based on group wise seasonal analysis, the average mean abundance was maximum for polychaetes (43.47) followed by nematodes (33.62), crustaceans (21.62), molluscs (11.94) and Pisces (0.05) in the estuary. Monsoon season was most favourable for benthic faunal abundance followed by the post monsoon period in the study. The series of human interventions like dredging, discharge of industrial effluents, urbanisation and related aspects had a strong influence on the distribution, abundance of benthic macrofauna in the wetland.
Resumo:
Die wachsende Weltbevölkerung bedingt einen höheren Energiebedarf, dies jedoch unter der Beachtung der nachhaltigen Entwicklung. Die derzeitige zentrale Versorgung mit elektrischer Energie wird durch wenige Erzeugungsanlagen auf der Basis von fossilen Primärenergieträgern und Kernenergie bestimmt, die die räumlich verteilten Verbraucher zuverlässig und wirtschaftlich über ein strukturiertes Versorgungssystem beliefert. In den Elektrizitätsversorgungsnetzen sind keine nennenswerten Speicherkapazitäten vorhanden, deshalb muss die von den Verbrauchern angeforderte Energie resp. Leistung jederzeit von den Kraftwerken gedeckt werden. Bedingt durch die Liberalisierung der Energiemärkte und die geforderte Verringerung der Energieabhängigkeit Luxemburgs, unterliegt die Versorgung einem Wandel hin zu mehr Energieeffizienz und erhöhter Nutzung der dargebotsabhängigen Energiequellen. Die Speicherung der aus der Windkraft erzeugten elektrischen Energie, wird in den Hochleistungs-Bleiakkumulatoren, errichtet im ländlichen Raum in der Nähe der Windkraftwerke, eingespeichert. Die zeitversetzte Einspeisung dieser gespeicherten elektrischen Energie in Form von veredelter elektrischer Leistung während den Lastspitzen in das 20 kV-Versorgungsnetz der CEGEDEL stellt die Innovation in der luxemburgischen Elektrizitätsversorgung dar. Die Betrachtungen beschränken sich somit auf die regionale, relativ kleinräumige Einbindung der Windkraft in die elektrische Energieversorgung des Großherzogtums Luxemburg. Die Integration der Windkraft im Regionalbereich wird in den Vordergrund der Untersuchung gerückt. Überregionale Ausgleichseffekte durch Hochspannungsleitungen der 230/400 kV-Systeme werden außer Acht gelassen. Durch die verbrauchernahe Bereitstellung von elektrischer Spitzenleistung vermindern sich ebenfalls die Übertragungskosten aus den entfernten Spitzenlastkraftwerken, der Ausbau von Kraftwerkskapazitäten kann in die Zukunft verschoben werden. Die Emission von Treibhausgasen in thermischen Kraftwerken wird zum Teil reduziert. Die Berechnungen der Wirtschaftlichkeit von Hybridanlagen, zusammengesetzt aus den Windkraftwerken und den Hochleistungs-Bleiakkumulatoren bringen weitere Informationen zum Einsatz dieser dezentralen Speichern, als Partner der nachhaltigen Energieversorgung im ländlichen Raum. Die untersuchte Einspeisung von erneuerbarer Spitzenleistung lässt sich auch in die Entwicklungsländer übertragen, welche nicht über zentrale Kraftwerkskapazitäten und Verteilungsnetze verfügen.
Resumo:
This study was aim to describe the indigenous knowledge of farmers at Nagari Padang laweh Malalo (NPLM) and their adaptability to climate change. Not only the water scarcity is feared, but climate change is also affecting their food security. Local food security can be achieved if biodiversity in their surrounding area is suitable to the local needs. The study was conducted by using Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) such as observation and discussion. The combination of in depth interview, life history, semi structure questionnaire, pictures, mapping and expert interviews was implemented. Data was analyzed by using MAXQDA 10 and F4 audio analysis software. The result shows awareness of the people and scarcity of water conditions has allowed the people of NPLM to face this challenge with wisdom. Aia adat (water resources controlled and regulate by custom) is one of their strategies to distribute the water. The general rule is that irrigation will flow from 6 pm – 6 am regularly to all farm land under supervision of kapalo banda. When rains occur, water resources can be used during the day without special supervision. They were used traditional knowledge to manage water resources for their land and daily usage. This study may be helpful for researcher and other farmers in different region to learn encounter water scarcity.
Resumo:
Nowadays, Oceanographic and Geospatial communities are closely related worlds. The problem is that they follow parallel paths in data storage, distributions, modelling and data analyzing. This situation produces different data model implementations for the same features. While Geospatial information systems have 2 or 3 dimensions, the Oceanographic models uses multidimensional parameters like temperature, salinity, streams, ocean colour... This implies significant differences between data models of both communities, and leads to difficulties in dataset analysis for both sciences. These troubles affect directly to the Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies ( IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB)). Researchers from this Institute perform intensive processing with data from oceanographic facilities like CTDs, moorings, gliders… and geospatial data collected related to the integrated management of coastal zones. In this paper, we present an approach solution based on THREDDS (Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services). THREDDS allows data access through the standard geospatial data protocol Web Coverage Service, inside the European project (European Coastal Sea Operational Observing and Forecasting system). The goal of ECOOP is to consolidate, integrate and further develop existing European coastal and regional seas operational observing and forecasting systems into an integrated pan- European system targeted at detecting environmental and climate changes
Resumo:
Estados Unidos y China son dos países que participan en el escenario internacional como polos opuestos en los temas más importantes de la agenda internacional. En la participación de las negociaciones del Protocolo de Kioto entorpecen el destino de este acuerdo. Con diferentes posturas y sin ponerse de acuerdo, son el bloque frente a estas negociaciones que pretenden mejorar las condiciones ambientales en todo el mundo.
Resumo:
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is an important large-scale atmospheric circulation that influences the European countries climate. This study evaluated NAO impact in air quality in Porto Metropolitan Area (PMA), Portugal, for the period 2002-2006. NAO, air pollutants and meteorological data were statistically analyzed. All data were obtained from PMA Weather Station, PMA Air Quality Stations and NOAA analysis. Two statistical methods were applied in different time scale : principal component and correlation coefficient. Annual time scale, using multivariate analysis (PCA, principal component analysis), were applied in order to identified positive and significant association between air pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, CO, NO and NO2, with NAO. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient using seasonal time scale were also applied to the same data. The results of PCA analysis present a general negative significant association between the total precipitation and NAO, in Factor 1 and 2 (explaining around 70% of the variance), presented in the years of 2002, 2004 and 2005. During the same years, some air pollutants (such as PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NOx and CO) present also a positive association with NAO. The O3 shows as well a positive association with NAP during 2002 and 2004, at 2nd Factor, explaining 30% of the variance. From the seasonal analysis using correlation coefficient, it was found significant correlation between PM10 (0.72., p<0.05, in 2002), PM2.5 (0 74, p<0.05, in 2004), and SO2 (0.78, p<0.01, in 2002) with NAO during March-December (no winter period) period. Significant associations between air pollutants and NAO were also verified in the winter period (December to April) mainly with ozone (2005, r=-0.55, p.<0.01). Once that human health and hospital morbidities may be affected by air pollution, the results suggest that NAO forecast can be an important tool to prevent them, in the Iberian Peninsula and specially Portugal.
Resumo:
A quarter of a century of daily rainfall data from the Global Telecommunications System are used to define the temporal and spatial variability of the start of the wet season over Africa and surrounding extreme south of Europe and parts of the Middle East. From 1978 to 2002, the start of the wet season arrived later in the year for the majority of the region, as time progressed. In some parts of the continent, there was an annual increase in the start date of up to 4 days per year. On average, the start of the wet season arrived 9–21 days later from 1978 to 2002, depending on the threshold used to define the start of the rains (varying from 10–30 mm over 2 days, with no dry period in the following 10 days). It is noted that the inter-annual variability of the start of the wet season is high with the range of start dates varying on average from 116 to 142 days dependent on the threshold used to determine the start date. These results may have important implications for agriculturists on all levels (from the individual farmer to those responsible for regional food supply), as knowledge of potential future climate changes starts to play an increasingly important role in the agricultural decision-making process, such as sowing and harvesting times.
Resumo:
For thousands of years, humans have inhabited locations that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, earthquakes, and floods. In order to investigate the extent to which Holocene environmental changes may have impacted on cultural evolution, we present new geologic, geomorphic, and chronologic data from the Qazvin Plain in northwest Iran that provides a backdrop of natural environmental changes for the simultaneous cultural dynamics observed on the Central Iranian Plateau. Well-resolved archaeological data from the neighbouring settlements of Zagheh (7170—6300 yr BP), Ghabristan (6215—4950 yr BP) and Sagzabad (4050—2350 yr BP) indicate that Holocene occupation of the Hajiarab alluvial fan was interrupted by a 900 year settlement hiatus. Multiproxy climate data from nearby lakes in northwest Iran suggest a transition from arid early-Holocene conditions to more humid middle-Holocene conditions from c. 7550 to 6750 yr BP, coinciding with the settlement of Zagheh, and a peak in aridity at c. 4550 yr BP during the settlement hiatus. Palaeoseismic investigations indicate that large active fault systems in close proximity to the tell sites incurred a series of large (MW ~7.1) earthquakes with return periods of ~500—1000 years during human occupation of the tells. Mapping and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) chronology of the alluvial sequences reveals changes in depositional style from coarse-grained unconfined sheet flow deposits to proximal channel flow and distally prograding alluvial deposits sometime after c. 8830 yr BP, possibly reflecting an increase in moisture following the early-Holocene arid phase. The coincidence of major climate changes, earthquake activity, and varying sedimentation styles with changing patterns of human occupation on the Hajiarab fan indicate links between environmental and anthropogenic systems. However, temporal coincidence does not necessitate a fundamental causative dependency.
Resumo:
Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and seven-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960-2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.
Resumo:
We synthesize existing sedimentary charcoal records to reconstruct Holocene fire history at regional, continental and global scales. The reconstructions are compared with the two potential controls of burning at these broad scales – changes in climate and human activities – to assess their relative importance on trends in biomass burning. Here we consider several hypotheses that have been advanced to explain the Holocene record of fire, including climate, human activities and synergies between the two. Our results suggest that 1) episodes of high fire activity were relatively common in the early Holocene and were consistent with climate changes despite low global temperatures and low levels of biomass burning globally; 2) there is little evidence from the paleofire record to support the Early Anthropocene Hypothesis of human modification of the global carbon cycle; 3) there was a nearly-global increase in fire activity from 3 to 2 ka that is difficult to explain with either climate or humans, but the widespread and synchronous nature of the increase suggests at least a partial climate forcing; and 4) burning during the past century generally decreased but was spatially variable; it declined sharply in many areas, but there were also large increases (e.g., Australia and parts of Europe). Our analysis does not exclude an important role for human activities on global biomass burning during the Holocene, but instead provides evidence for a pervasive influence of climate across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
Resumo:
As climate changes, temperatures will play an increasing role in determining crop yield. Both climate model error and lack of constrained physiological thresholds limit the predictability of yield. We used a perturbed-parameter climate model ensemble with two methods of bias-correction as input to a regional-scale wheat simulation model over India to examine future yields. This model configuration accounted for uncertainty in climate, planting date, optimization, temperature-induced changes in development rate and reproduction. It also accounts for lethal temperatures, which have been somewhat neglected to date. Using uncertainty decomposition, we found that fractional uncertainty due to temperature-driven processes in the crop model was on average larger than climate model uncertainty (0.56 versus 0.44), and that the crop model uncertainty is dominated by crop development. Simulations with the raw compared to the bias-corrected climate data did not agree on the impact on future wheat yield, nor its geographical distribution. However the method of bias-correction was not an important source of uncertainty. We conclude that bias-correction of climate model data and improved constraints on especially crop development are critical for robust impact predictions.
Resumo:
During glacial periods, atmospheric CO2 concentration increases and decreases by around 15 ppm. At the same time, the climate changes gradually in Antarctica. Such climate changes can be simulated in models when the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Oceanic Circulation) is weakened by adding fresh water to the North Atlantic. The impact on the carbon cycle is less straightforward, and previous studies give opposite results. Because the models and the fresh water fluxes were different in these studies, it prevents any direct comparison and hinders finding whether the discrepancies arise from using different models or different fresh water fluxes. In this study we use the CLIMBER-2 coupled climate carbon model to explore the impact of different fresh water fluxes. In both preindustrial and glacial states, the addition of fresh water and the resulting slow-down of the AMOC lead to an uptake of carbon by the ocean and a release by the terrestrial biosphere. The duration, shape and amplitude of the fresh water flux all have an impact on the change of atmospheric CO2 because they modulate the change of the AMOC. The maximum CO2 change linearly depends on the time integral of the AMOC change. The different duration, amplitude, and shape of the fresh water flux cannot explain the opposite evolution of ocean and vegetation carbon inventory in different models. The different CO2 evolution thus depends on the AMOC response to the addition of fresh water and the resulting climatic change, which are both model dependent. In CLIMBER-2, the rise of CO2 recorded in ice cores during abrupt events can be simulated under glacial conditions, especially when the sinking of brines in the Southern Ocean is taken into account. The addition of fresh water in the Southern Hemisphere leads to a decline of CO2, contrary to the addition of fresh water in the Northern Hemisphere.