VAR models and methods for monetary and health economics

Negli ultimi anni i modelli VAR sono diventati il principale strumento econometrico per verificare se può esistere una relazione tra le variabili e per valutare gli effetti delle politiche economiche. Questa tesi studia tre diversi approcci di identificazione a partire dai modelli VAR in forma ridotta (tra cui periodo di campionamento, set di variabili endogene, termini deterministici). Usiamo nel caso di modelli VAR il test di Causalità di Granger per verificare la capacità di una variabile di prevedere un altra, nel caso di cointegrazione usiamo modelli VECM per stimare congiuntamente i coefficienti di lungo periodo ed i coefficienti di breve periodo e nel caso di piccoli set di dati e problemi di overfitting usiamo modelli VAR bayesiani con funzioni di risposta di impulso e decomposizione della varianza, per analizzare l'effetto degli shock sulle variabili macroeconomiche. A tale scopo, gli studi empirici sono effettuati utilizzando serie storiche di dati specifici e formulando diverse ipotesi. Sono stati utilizzati tre modelli VAR: in primis per studiare le decisioni di politica monetaria e discriminare tra le varie teorie post-keynesiane sulla politica monetaria ed in particolare sulla cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015) e regola del GDP nominale in Area Euro (paper 1); secondo per estendere l'evidenza dell'ipotesi di endogeneità della moneta valutando gli effetti della cartolarizzazione delle banche sul meccanismo di trasmissione della politica monetaria negli Stati Uniti (paper 2); terzo per valutare gli effetti dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria in Italia in termini di implicazioni di politiche economiche (paper 3). La tesi è introdotta dal capitolo 1 in cui si delinea il contesto, la motivazione e lo scopo di questa ricerca, mentre la struttura e la sintesi, così come i principali risultati, sono descritti nei rimanenti capitoli. Nel capitolo 2 sono esaminati, utilizzando un modello VAR in differenze prime con dati trimestrali della zona Euro, se le decisioni in materia di politica monetaria possono essere interpretate in termini di una "regola di politica monetaria", con specifico riferimento alla cosiddetta "nominal GDP targeting rule" (McCallum 1988 Hall e Mankiw 1994; Woodford 2012). I risultati evidenziano una relazione causale che va dallo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo alle variazioni dei tassi di interesse di mercato a tre mesi. La stessa analisi non sembra confermare l'esistenza di una relazione causale significativa inversa dalla variazione del tasso di interesse di mercato allo scostamento tra i tassi di crescita del PIL nominale e PIL obiettivo. Risultati simili sono stati ottenuti sostituendo il tasso di interesse di mercato con il tasso di interesse di rifinanziamento della BCE. Questa conferma di una sola delle due direzioni di causalità non supporta un'interpretazione della politica monetaria basata sulla nominal GDP targeting rule e dà adito a dubbi in termini più generali per l'applicabilità della regola di Taylor e tutte le regole convenzionali della politica monetaria per il caso in questione. I risultati appaiono invece essere più in linea con altri approcci possibili, come quelli basati su alcune analisi post-keynesiane e marxiste della teoria monetaria e più in particolare la cosiddetta "regola di solvibilità" (Brancaccio e Fontana 2013, 2015). Queste linee di ricerca contestano la tesi semplicistica che l'ambito della politica monetaria consiste nella stabilizzazione dell'inflazione, del PIL reale o del reddito nominale intorno ad un livello "naturale equilibrio". Piuttosto, essi suggeriscono che le banche centrali in realtà seguono uno scopo più complesso, che è il regolamento del sistema finanziario, con particolare riferimento ai rapporti tra creditori e debitori e la relativa solvibilità delle unità economiche. Il capitolo 3 analizza l’offerta di prestiti considerando l’endogeneità della moneta derivante dall'attività di cartolarizzazione delle banche nel corso del periodo 1999-2012. Anche se gran parte della letteratura indaga sulla endogenità dell'offerta di moneta, questo approccio è stato adottato raramente per indagare la endogeneità della moneta nel breve e lungo termine con uno studio degli Stati Uniti durante le due crisi principali: scoppio della bolla dot-com (1998-1999) e la crisi dei mutui sub-prime (2008-2009). In particolare, si considerano gli effetti dell'innovazione finanziaria sul canale dei prestiti utilizzando la serie dei prestiti aggiustata per la cartolarizzazione al fine di verificare se il sistema bancario americano è stimolato a ricercare fonti più economiche di finanziamento come la cartolarizzazione, in caso di politica monetaria restrittiva (Altunbas et al., 2009). L'analisi si basa sull'aggregato monetario M1 ed M2. Utilizzando modelli VECM, esaminiamo una relazione di lungo periodo tra le variabili in livello e valutiamo gli effetti dell’offerta di moneta analizzando quanto la politica monetaria influisce sulle deviazioni di breve periodo dalla relazione di lungo periodo. I risultati mostrano che la cartolarizzazione influenza l'impatto dei prestiti su M1 ed M2. Ciò implica che l'offerta di moneta è endogena confermando l'approccio strutturalista ed evidenziando che gli agenti economici sono motivati ad aumentare la cartolarizzazione per una preventiva copertura contro shock di politica monetaria. Il capitolo 4 indaga il rapporto tra spesa pro capite sanitaria, PIL pro capite, indice di vecchiaia ed aspettativa di vita in Italia nel periodo 1990-2013, utilizzando i modelli VAR bayesiani e dati annuali estratti dalla banca dati OCSE ed Eurostat. Le funzioni di risposta d'impulso e la scomposizione della varianza evidenziano una relazione positiva: dal PIL pro capite alla spesa pro capite sanitaria, dalla speranza di vita alla spesa sanitaria, e dall'indice di invecchiamento alla spesa pro capite sanitaria. L'impatto dell'invecchiamento sulla spesa sanitaria è più significativo rispetto alle altre variabili. Nel complesso, i nostri risultati suggeriscono che le disabilità strettamente connesse all'invecchiamento possono essere il driver principale della spesa sanitaria nel breve-medio periodo. Una buona gestione della sanità contribuisce a migliorare il benessere del paziente, senza aumentare la spesa sanitaria totale. Tuttavia, le politiche che migliorano lo stato di salute delle persone anziane potrebbe essere necessarie per una più bassa domanda pro capite dei servizi sanitari e sociali.

Apoio como dispositivo: conexões, invenções e provocações à produção coletiva do cuidado e da gestão no município de São Bernardo do Campo

A transformação nos modos de organizar e produzir atenção em saúde exige a invenção de dispositivos com potência para proporcionar espaços coletivos de análise acerca da produção da gestão e do cuidado. O apoio é tecido por múltiplas relações, interesses, projetos e agenciamentos. Fabricado no encontro, é um intercessor que pode favorecer reflexões sobre a micropolítica do trabalho, sobre os encontros entre trabalhadores e usuários, entre trabalhadores e entre trabalhadores e gestão, agenciando possibilidades de análise do cotidiano e interferências sobre os modos de cuidar e de gerir. As interrogações sobre o cuidado podem abrir zonas de visibilidade aos processos de trabalho, discursos, práticas e relações de poder. A pesquisa procurou analisar o processo de fabricação do apoio na rede de atenção à saúde no município de São Bernardo do Campo e seus efeitos. O município organizou nove núcleos territoriais em saúde, cada qual com um grupo de até cinco apoiadores constituído por trabalhadores com formações variadas. Ademais, conta com uma dupla de facilitadores de educação permanente, ligados à gestão nos diferentes departamentos da Secretaria de Saúde e orientadores de educação permanente que tem a função de dar suporte aos apoiadores e facilitar os processos de educação permanente nos territórios. No desenho de São Bernardo, o apoio é uma ferramenta estratégica para a construção do cuidado em rede e para a análise das práticas de saúde. Há uma forte aposta da gestão na criação de espaços coletivos e dispositivos de conexão entre os departamentos, serviços, gestores e trabalhadores na intenção de suscitar transversalidade e combater a estrutura vertical de sua organização. O município vive uma intensa criação de dispositivos mobilizadores de encontros, propostos para a construção de redes e de gestão compartilhada do cuidado. Por meio de andanças com os apoiadores em variados territórios, conversas, afecções, registros em diário de campo, narrativas e documentos, tecemos uma cartografia: composição de cenários, de perspectivas e de analisadores, sentidos abertos, múltiplos e conectáveis. A abordagem cartográfica acompanha processos, persegue rastros e traçados, se movimenta entre linhas, sustenta problemáticas; nela, somos pesquisadores in-mundos, nos infectamos, nos misturamos, sempre implicados e em produção com os mundos pesquisados. Mesmo sendo uma aposta de governo, tensionamentos e conflitos acontecem no cotidiano, relacionados a diferentes prioridades, agendas, quebra de acordos, interrupção de projetos. As produções do apoio vêm fomentando conexões entre os serviços, contribuindo com o matriciamento de saúde mental e de outras especialidades na atenção básica e entre os trabalhadores da atenção especializada, fortalecendo redes, estimulando análises coletivas sobre o cuidado, criando estratégias e ferramentas, transformações em fluxos e na regulação. O apoio não é função somente do apoiador, pode ser agenciado por variados atores. Por fim, a auto-análise, quando acontece, potencializa o apoio como dispositivo, provisório, ativador de processos e de protagonismo coletivo.

Life Experiences of People Affected by Crohn’s Disease and Their Support Networks Scoping Review

This scoping review identifies and describes relevant studies related to the evidence published on life experiences and perceived social support of people affected by Crohn’s disease. Twenty-three studies were definitely selected and analyzed for the topics explored. The overall findings show patients’ needs and perceptions. There is a lack of evidence about patients’ perceived needs as well as the understanding of social support that has contributed to improve their life experiences with that chronic illness. Lack of energy, loss of body control, body image damaged due to different treatments and surgeries, symptoms related to fear of disease, feeling burdened loss related to independence, and so on are some of the concerns with having to live with those affected by the Crohn. To underline those experiences through this scoping review provides valuable data for health care teams, especially for the nursing profession, considered by those affected as one of the main roles along the whole pathological process. This review provides the basis for developing broader research on the relatively underexplored topics and consequently improves specific programs that could address patients’ needs.

Connecting the Nation : classrooms, libraries, and health care organizations in the Information age : update 1995 /

Mode of access: Internet.

Air quality data from the national air sampling networks and contributing state and local networks, 1964-1965.

Mode of access: Internet.

The Establishment of Marine Protected Area Networks in China

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Logistical aspects of large telemedicine networks. 2: Measurement of network activity

We carried out a retrospective review of the videoconference activity records in a university-run hospital telemedicine studio. Usage records describing videoconferencing activity in the telemedicine studio were compared with the billing records provided by the telecommunications company. During a seven-month period there were 211 entries in the studio log: 108 calls made from the studio and 103 calls made from a far-end location. We found that 103 calls from a total of 195 calls reported by the telecommunications company were recorded in the usage log. The remaining 92 calls were not recorded, probably for one of several reasons, including: failed calls-a large number of unrecorded calls (57%) lasted for less than 2 min (median 1.6 min); origin of videoconference calls-calls may have been recorded incorrectly in the usage diary (i.e. as being initiated from the far end, when actually initiated from the studio); and human error. Our study showed that manual recording of videoconference activity may not accurately reflect the actual activity taking place. Those responsible for recording and analysing videoconference activity, particularly in large telemedicine networks, should do so with care.

Why are health care interventions delivered over the internet? A systematic review of the published literature

Background: As Internet use grows, health interventions are increasingly being delivered online. Pioneering researchers are using the networking potential of the Internet, and several of them have evaluated these interventions. Objective: The objective was to review the reasons why health interventions have been delivered on the Internet and to reflect on the work of the pioneers in this field in order to inform future research. Methods: We conducted a qualitative systematic review of peer-reviewed evaluations of health interventions delivered to a known client/patient group using networked features of the Internet. Papers were reviewed for the reasons given for using the Internet, and these reasons were categorized. Results: We included studies evaluating 28 interventions plus 9 interventions that were evaluated in pilot studies. The interventions were aimed at a range of health conditions. Reasons for Internet delivery included low cost and resource implications due to the nature of the technology; reducing cost and increasing convenience for users; reduction of health service costs; overcoming isolation of users; the need for timely information; stigma reduction; and increased user and supplier control of the intervention. A small number of studies gave the existence of Internet interventions as the only reason for undertaking an evaluation of this mode of delivery. Conclusions: One must remain alert for the unintended effects of Internet delivery of health interventions due to the potential for reinforcing the problems that the intervention was designed to help. Internet delivery overcomes isolation of time, mobility, and geography, but it may not be a substitute for face-to-face contact. Future evaluations need to incorporate the evaluation of cost, not only to the health service but also to users and their social networks. When researchers report the outcomes of Internet-delivered health care interventions, it is important that they clearly state why they chose to use the Internet, preferably backing up their decision with theoretical models and exploratory work. Evaluation of the effectiveness of a health care intervention delivered by the Internet needs to include comparison with more traditional modes of delivery to answer the following question: What are the added benefits or disadvantages of Internet use that are particular to this mode of delivery? © Griffiths, Frances, Lindenmeyer, Antje, Powell, John, Thorogood, Margaret.

Reform of the New Zealand Health System:problematization, mobilization and change

This paper will seek to explicate the changes in the New Zealand health sector informed by the concepts of problematization, inscription and the construction of networks (Callon, 1986; Latour, 1987, 1993). This will involve applying a framework of interpretation based on the concepts of Latour's sociology of translation. Material on problematization and inscription will be incorporated into the paper in order to provide an explanatory frame of reference which will enable us to make sense of the processes of change in the New Zealand health sector. The sociology of translation will be used to explain the processes which underlie the changes and will be used to capture effects, such as changes in policy and structure, producing new networks within which 'allies' could be enrolled in support of the health reforms.

Building cliques and alliances as practices to 'make things happen' in complex networks

The Roma population has become a policy issue highly debated in the European Union (EU). The EU acknowledges that this ethnic minority faces extreme poverty and complex social and economic problems. 52% of the Roma population live in extreme poverty, 75% in poverty (Soros Foundation, 2007, p. 8), with a life expectancy at birth of about ten years less than the majority population. As a result, Romania has received a great deal of policy attention and EU funding, being eligible for 19.7 billion Euros from the EU for 2007-2013. Yet progress is slow; it is debated whether Romania's government and companies were capable to use these funds (EurActiv.ro, 2012). Analysing three case studies, this research looks at policy implementation in relation to the role of Roma networks in different geographical regions of Romania. It gives insights about how to get things done in complex settings and it explains responses to the Roma problem as a „wicked‟ policy issue. This longitudinal research was conducted between 2008 and 2011, comprising 86 semi-structured interviews, 15 observations, and documentary sources and using a purposive sample focused on institutions responsible for implementing social policies for Roma: Public Health Departments, School Inspectorates, City Halls, Prefectures, and NGOs. Respondents included: governmental workers, academics, Roma school mediators, Roma health mediators, Roma experts, Roma Councillors, NGOs workers, and Roma service users. By triangulating the data collected with various methods and applied to various categories of respondents, a comprehensive and precise representation of Roma network practices was created. The provisions of the 2001 „Governmental Strategy to Improve the Situation of the Roma Population‟ facilitated forming a Roma network by introducing special jobs in local and central administration. In different counties, resources, people, their skills, and practices varied. As opposed to the communist period, a new Roma elite emerged: social entrepreneurs set the pace of change by creating either closed cliques or open alliances and by using more or less transparent practices. This research deploys the concept of social/institutional entrepreneurs to analyse how key actors influence clique and alliance formation and functioning. Significantly, by contrasting three case studies, it shows that both closed cliques and open alliances help to achieve public policy network objectives, but that closed cliques can also lead to failure to improve the health and education of Roma people in a certain region.

Coverage overlapping problems in applications of IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

IEEE 802.15.4 standard is a relatively new standard designed for low power low data rate wireless sensor networks (WSN), which has a wide range of applications, e.g., environment monitoring, e-health, home and industry automation. In this paper, we investigate the problems of hidden devices in coverage overlapped IEEE 802.15.4 WSNs, which is likely to arise when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely and independently. We consider a typical scenario of two 802.15.4 WSNs with partial coverage overlapping and propose a Markov-chain based analytical model to reveal the performance degradation due to the hidden devices from the coverage overlapping. Impacts of the hidden devices and network sleeping modes on saturated throughput and energy consumption are modeled. The analytic model is verified by simulations, which can provide the insights to network design and planning when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely. © 2013 IEEE.

Managing wireless networks in the healthcare sector:emerging experiences of cultural impacts

The existing body of knowledge has generally supported that organizational culture plays a significant role in shaping group identity, work pattern, communication schemes, and interpersonal relations; all of these cultural elements are important organizational factors that shape workplaces and operational routines. In the context of emerging information technology, it has also been suggested that organizational culture could affect IT implementation and management. However, little is known about how emerging information technology shapes organizational culture, which in turn helps reshape the organization as a whole. The purpose of this paper is thus to build empirical understanding of how IT in general and emerging wireless networks in particular reshapes organizational culture. Case studies conducted in two hospitals situated in southwest U.S.A. illustrated that the implementation of wireless networks indeed helped shape and/or reshape organizational culture in the healthcare sector and in turn enhance healthcare organizations’ competitiveness in the marketplace. For IT managers and practitioners in healthcare institutions, effective strategy to plan and manage emerging ITs such as wireless networks will thus have long-term implications on cultivating organizational culture that could eventually reshape workplace and competitiveness.

Reflecting on time, timing and timeliness in public sector supply networks

Despite recent research on time (e.g. Hedaa & Törnroos, 2001), consideration of the time dimension in data collection, analysis and interpretation in research in supply networks is, to date, still limited. Drawing on a body of literature from organization studies, and empirical findings from a six-year action research programme and a related study of network learning, we reflect on time, timing and timeliness in interorganizational networks. The empirical setting is supply networks in the English health sector wherein we identify and elaborate various issues of time, within the case and in terms of research process. Our analysis is wide-ranging and multi-level, from the global (e.g. identifying the notion of life cycles) to the particular (e.g. different cycle times in supply, such as daily for deliveries and yearly for contracts). We discuss the ‘speeding up’ of inter-organizational ‘e’ time and tensions with other time demands. In closing the paper, we relate our conclusions to the future conduct of the research programme and supply research more generally, and to the practice of managing supply (in) networks.

Coverage overlapping problems in applications of IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

IEEE 802.15.4 standard is a relatively new standard designed for low power low data rate wireless sensor networks (WSN), which has a wide range of applications, e.g., environment monitoring, e-health, home and industry automation. In this paper, we investigate the problems of hidden devices in coverage overlapped IEEE 802.15.4 WSNs, which is likely to arise when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely and independently. We consider a typical scenario of two 802.15.4 WSNs with partial coverage overlapping and propose a Markov-chain based analytical model to reveal the performance degradation due to the hidden devices from the coverage overlapping. Impacts of the hidden devices and network sleeping modes on saturated throughput and energy consumption are modeled. The analytic model is verified by simulations, which can provide the insights to network design and planning when multiple 802.15.4 WSNs are deployed closely. © 2013 IEEE.