The equity premium puzzle: um estudo de viés de seleção dos ativos

As empresas de capital aberto, listadas em bolsa de valores, são naturalmente aquelas que vieram apresentando retornos superiores perante às demais empresas do seu setor. Assim, será que o viés de seleção desses ativos in uencia sigini cativamente no resultado do Equity Premium Puzzle, primordialmente lançado por Mehra and Prescott (1985)? É essa pergunta que este trabalho investiga e conclui que, sim, de fato pode haver uma in uência desse viés em explicar o Puzzle . Para isso, iremos gerar uma economia cujos ativos, por hipótese, sejam preci cados de acordo com o fator estocástico de desconto (SDF) baseado em consumo, ou seja, os modelos conhecidos como CCAPM (Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model). Assim, essa economia será gerada via simulação de Monte Carlo, de forma que iremos construir um índice benchmark dessa economia, nos quais participariam apenas os ativos que foram historicamente mais rentáveis. Adota-se tal metodologia em paralelo à forma como os reais benchmarks são construidos (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Ibovespa), em que neles participam, basicamente, as empresas de capital aberta mais negociadas em Bolsa de Valores, que são, comumente, as empresas historicamente mais rentáveis da economia. Em sequência, iremos realizar a estimação via GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) de um dos parâmetros de interesse de uma economia CCAPM: o coe ciente de aversão relativa ao risco (CRRA). Finalmente, os resultados obtidos são comparados e analisados quanto ao viés de estimação.

Puzzle Pirata

Ilustração componente do jogo “Musikinésia (http://www.loa.sead.ufscar.br/musikinesia.php)” desenvolvido pela equipe do Laboratório de Objetos de Aprendizagem da Universidade Federal de São Carlos (LOA/UFSCar).

Conservation puzzle: Endangered hyacinth macaw depends on its nest predator for reproduction

In the Pantanal wetlands of Central Brazil, the endangered hyacinth macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus), the largest psitacid in the world, makes its nest almost exclusively in natural hollows found in the manduvi tree (Sterculia apetala). The recruitment of manduvis greatly depends on the seed dispersal services provided by the toco toucan (Ramphastos toco), responsible for 83.3% of the seed dispersal. The toco toucan, however, is responsible for about 53% of the preyed eggs, resulting in a case of conflicting ecological pressures in which the reproduction of the hyacinth macaw is indirectly dependent on the seed dispersal services of its nest predator. The case illustrates the intricacies of biotic interactions in species-rich environments where species may be tied by indirect, subtle ecological links which conservationists should be aware of. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

COMMENT ON THE TAU DECAY PUZZLE

We analyse the current data on tau-lepton decays and show that they are consistent with the standard model.

Utilizing cross-domain SOAP Web services using client-side languages in an enterprise mashup platform

Service oriented architectures (SOA) based on Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) Web services have attracted the attention of enterprises mainly for business-to-business integration and to create composite applications that execute business processes. An existing problem is the lack of preoccupation with non technical users due to the fact that to create a composite application to fulfill users needs, it is necessary to be in contact with IT staff. To overcome this issue, enterprises can take advantage of web 2.0, 'introducing in the development stage some technologies like mashups and some concepts like user empowerment, collaborative work and collective intelligence. Some results [3] [13] have shown how web 2.0 concepts can help non technical users to produce relative complex business processes. However, traditional enterprise requirements goes beyond typical web 2.0 solutions in several aspects: (1) traditional enterprise systems are based on heterogeneous stack of technologies that are not directly exploitable from a web-based client (where SOAP web services play an important role); (2) web browsers set some cross-domain security constraints making difficult to integrate services from diverse domains. In this paper, a contribution to two web 2.0 research projects [14] [15] partially solves the problems described: provide a way to invoke cross-domain backend services (based on SOAP technologies) directly only using clientside languages, without a need for any adaptation layer. © 2010 ACM.

Systematics of spiny-backed treefrogs (Hylidae: Osteocephalus): An Amazonian puzzle

Spiny-backed tree frogs of the genus Osteocephalus are conspicuous components of the tropical wet forests of the Amazon and the Guiana Shield. Here, we revise the phylogenetic relationships of Osteocephalus and its sister group Tepuihyla, using up to 6134 bp of DNA sequences of nine mitochondrial and one nuclear gene for 338 specimens from eight countries and 218 localities, representing 89% of the 28 currently recognized nominal species. Our phylogenetic analyses reveal (i) the paraphyly of Osteocephalus with respect to Tepuihyla, (ii) the placement of 'Hyla' warreni as sister to Tepuihyla, (iii) the non-monophyly of several currently recognized species within Osteocephalus and (iv) the presence of low (<1%) and overlapping genetic distances among phenotypically well-characterized nominal species (e.g. O. taurinus and O. oophagus) for the 16S gene fragment used in amphibian DNA barcoding. We propose a new taxonomy, securing the monophyly of Osteocephalus and Tepuihyla by rearranging and redefining the content of both genera and also erect a new genus for the sister group of Osteocephalus. The colouration of newly metamorphosed individuals is proposed as a morphological synapomorphy for Osteocephalus. We recognize and define five monophyletic species groups within Osteocephalus, synonymize three species of Osteocephalus (O. germani, O. phasmatus and O. vilmae) and three species of Tepuihyla (T. celsae, T. galani and T. talbergae) and reallocate three species (Hyla helenae to Osteocephalus, O. exophthalmus to Tepuihyla and O. pearsoni to Dryaderces gen. n.). Furthermore, we flag nine putative new species (an increase to 138% of the current diversity). We conclude that species numbers are largely underestimated, with most hidden diversity centred on widespread and polymorphic nominal species. The evolutionary origin of breeding strategies within Osteocephalus is discussed in the light of this new phylogenetic hypothesis, and a novel type of amplexus (gular amplexus) is described. © 2013 The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters.

The complex urban freight puzzle

This issue of the FAL Bulletin shows why urban logistics is a relevant topic in the discussion of urbanization and provides arguments why the last-mile should be included in policies on sustainable mobility in the region. It also delivers insights and arguments how a modern perception of the cargo bike and its inclusion in sustainable logistics policy can deliver towards more sustainable urban logistics development.

The puzzle assembled: Ediacaran guide fossil Cloudina reveals an old proto-Gondwana seaway

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gastrotricha: A Marine Sister for a Freshwater Puzzle

Background: Within an evolutionary framework of Gastrotricha Marinellina flagellata and Redudasys fornerise bear special interest, as they are the only Macrodasyida that inhabit freshwater ecosystems. Notwithstanding, these rare animals are poorly known; found only once (Austria and Brazil), they are currently systematised as incertae sedis. Here we report on the rediscovery of Redudasys fornerise, provide an account on morphological novelties and present a hypothesis on its phylogenetic relationship based on molecular data. Methodology/Principal Findings: Specimens were surveyed using DIC microscopy and SEM, and used to obtain the 18 S rRNA gene sequence; molecular data was analyzed cladistically in conjunction with data from 42 additional species belonging to the near complete Macrodasyida taxonomic spectrum. Morphological analysis, while providing new information on taxonomically relevant traits (adhesive tubes, protonephridia and sensorial bristles), failed to detect elements of the male system, thus stressing the parthenogenetic nature of the Brazilian species. Phylogenetic analysis, carried out with ML, MP and Bayesian approaches, yielded topologies with strong nodal support and highly congruent with each other. Among the supported groups is the previously undocumented clade showing the alliance between Redudasys fornerise and Dactylopodola agadasys; other strongly sustained clades include the densely sampled families Thaumastodermatidae and Turbanellidae and most genera. Conclusions/Significance: A reconsideration of the morphological traits of Dactylopodola agadasys in light of the new information on Redudasys fornerise makes the alliance between these two taxa very likely. As a result, we create Anandrodasys gen. nov. to contain members of the previously described D. agadasys and erect Redudasyidae fam. nov. to reflect this novel relationship between Anandrodasys and Redudasys. From an ecological perspective, the derived position of Redudasys, which is deeply nested within the Macrodasyida clade, unequivocally demonstrates that invasion of freshwater by gastrotrichs has taken place at least twice, in contrast with the single event hypothesis recently put forward.

Client VoIP su Windows Mobile

Quando si parla di VoIP ci si riferisce ad un insieme di protocolli di comunicazione, tecnologie e metodi di trasmissione che permettono di effettuare conversazioni telefoniche attraverso reti a commutazione di pacchetto basata su IP, come Internet. Si tratta di una tecnologia che ha subito un forte crescita sia in ambito lavorativo che in ambito privato, questo fenomeno è in maggior parte dovuto al successo di applicazioni commerciali come Skype. Anche i dispositivi mobili hanno avuto un grande sviluppo e diffusione, sono passati da essere semplici telefoni cellulari a dispositivi in grado di fornire all’utente funzionalità avanzate come ad esempio navigazione internet, posta elettronica, riproduzione video, possibilità di installare applicazioni aggiuntive. Inoltre anche le reti dati sono migliorate in maniera considerevole negli ultimi anni, offrendo agli utenti una larghezza di banda sempre maggiore anche in mobilità. Tutti questi fattori hanno portato ad una crescente richiesta di applicazioni per dispositivi mobili in grado di sfruttare il VoIP. Per questi motivi si è deciso di progettare e sviluppare un applicazione VoIP per Windows Mobile, che offra tutte le funzioni necessarie ad un uso completo del VoIP e con un’interfaccia utente sia di facile utilizzo, per permettere anche agli utenti meno esperti di poter utilizzare la tecnologia VoIP

Design, development and first evaluation of a client/server system for managing and querying linguistic corpora

This thesis is concerned with the role played by software tools in the analysis and dissemination of linguistic corpora and their contribution to a more widespread adoption of corpora in different fields. Chapter 1 contains an overview of some of the most relevant corpus analysis tools available today, presenting their most interesting features and some of their drawbacks. Chapter 2 begins with an explanation of the reasons why none of the available tools appear to satisfy the requirements of the user community and then continues with technical overview of the current status of the new system developed as part of this work. This presentation is followed by highlights of features that make the system appealing to users and corpus builders (i.e. scholars willing to make their corpora available to the public). The chapter concludes with an indication of future directions for the projects and information on the current availability of the software. Chapter 3 describes the design of an experiment devised to evaluate the usability of the new system in comparison to another corpus tool. Usage of the tool was tested in the context of a documentation task performed on a real assignment during a translation class in a master's degree course. In chapter 4 the findings of the experiment are presented on two levels of analysis: firstly a discussion on how participants interacted with and evaluated the two corpus tools in terms of interface and interaction design, usability and perceived ease of use. Then an analysis follows of how users interacted with corpora to complete the task and what kind of queries they submitted. Finally, some general conclusions are drawn and areas for future work are outlined.

Sistema client-server per la gestione di dati georeferenziati raccolti via crowdsourcing

Questa tesi descrive un sistema Client Server che ricava dagli smartphone, tramite modello crowdsourcing e crowdsensing, posizioni che successivamente verranno georeferenziate sulla mappa con lo scopo di favorire l'accessibilità urbana.