Bridging the gap between different statistical approaches: An integrated framework for modelling

This paper proposes a template for modelling complex datasets that integrates traditional statistical modelling approaches with more recent advances in statistics and modelling through an exploratory framework. Our approach builds on the well-known and long standing traditional idea of 'good practice in statistics' by establishing a comprehensive framework for modelling that focuses on exploration, prediction, interpretation and reliability assessment, a relatively new idea that allows individual assessment of predictions. The integrated framework we present comprises two stages. The first involves the use of exploratory methods to help visually understand the data and identify a parsimonious set of explanatory variables. The second encompasses a two step modelling process, where the use of non-parametric methods such as decision trees and generalized additive models are promoted to identify important variables and their modelling relationship with the response before a final predictive model is considered. We focus on fitting the predictive model using parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian approaches. This paper is motivated by a medical problem where interest focuses on developing a risk stratification system for morbidity of 1,710 cardiac patients given a suite of demographic, clinical and preoperative variables. Although the methods we use are applied specifically to this case study, these methods can be applied across any field, irrespective of the type of response.

A yield architecture framework to explain adaptation of pearl millet to environmental stress

Functional knowledge of the physiological basis of crop adaptation to stress is a prerequisite for exploiting specific adaptation to stress environments in breeding programs. This paper presents an analysis of yield components for pearl millet, to explain the specific adaptation of local landraces to stress environments in Rajasthan, India. Six genotypes, ranging from high-tillering traditional landraces to low-tillering open-pollinated modern cultivars, were grown in 20 experiments, covering a range of nonstress and drought stress patterns. In each experiment, yield components (particle number, grain number, 100 grain mass) were measured separately for main shoots, basal tillers, and nodal tillers. Under optimum conditions, landraces had a significantly lower grain yield than the cultivars, but no significant differences were observed at yield levels around 1 ton ha(-1). This genotype x environment interaction for grain yield was due to a difference in yield strategy, where landraces aimed at minimising the risk of a crop failure under stress conditions, and modem cultivars aimed at maximising yield potential under optimum conditions. A key aspect of the adaptation of landraces was the small size of the main shoot panicle, as it minimised (1) the loss of productive tillers during stem elongation; (2) the delay in anthesis if mid-season drought occurs; and (3) the reduction in panicle productivity of the basal tillers under stress. In addition, a low investment in structural panicle weight, relative to vegetative crop growth rate, promoted the production of nodal tillers, providing a mechanism to compensate for reduced basal tiller productivity if stress occurred around anthesis. A low maximum 100 grain mass also ensured individual grain mass was little affected by environmental conditions. The strategy of the high-tillering landraces carries a yield penalty under optimum conditions, but is expected to minimise the risk of a crop failure, particularly if mid-season drought stress occurs. The yield architecture of low-tillering varieties, by contrast, will be suited to end-of-season drought stress, provided anthesis is early. Application of the above adaptation mechanisms into a breeding program could enable the identification of plant types that match the prevalent stress patterns in the target environments. (C) 2003 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A practical framework for the generation and selection of strategic plans of action, The relevance of timeframe considerations and a systems thinking approach

The paper proposes a methodology especially focused on the generation of strategic plans of action, emphasizing the relevance of having a structured timeframe classification for the actions. The methodology explicitly recognizes the relevance of long-term goals as strategic drivers, which must insure that the complex system is capable to effectively respond to changes in the environment. In addition, the methodology employs engineering systems techniques in order to understand the inner working of the system and to build up alternative plans of action. Due to these different aspects, the proposed approach features higher flexibility compared to traditional methods. The validity and effectiveness of the methodology has been demonstrated by analyzing an airline company composed by 5 subsystems with the aim of defining a plan of action for the next 5 years, which can either: improve efficiency, redefine mission or increase revenues.

GUIsurfer: A Reverse Engineering Framework for User Interface Software

GUIsurfer: A Reverse Engineering Framework for User Interface Software

Prototyping Behavioural Specifications in the.NET framework

Over the last decade, software architecture emerged as a critical design step in Software Engineering. This encompassed a shift from traditional programming towards the deployment and assembly of independent components. The specification of the overall system structure, on the one hand, and of the interactions patterns between its components, on the other, became a major concern for the working developer. Although a number of formalisms to express behaviour and supply the indispensable calculational power to reason about designs, are available, the task of deriving architectural designs on top of popular component platforms has remained largely informal. This paper introduces a systematic approach to derive, from behavioural specifications written in Ccs, the corresponding architectural skeletons in the Microsoft .Net framework in the form of executable C] code. Such prototyping process is automated by means of a specific tool developed in Haskell

Performance management framework: the fit between PM framework adopted in Portuguese local government and the Otley’s framework

Purpose/objectives: This paper seeks to investigate whether performance management (PM) framework adopted in Portuguese local government (PLG) fit the Otley’s PM framework (1999). In particularly, the research questions are (1) whether PM framework adopted in PLG (SIADAP) fit the Otley´s framework, and (2) how local politicians (aldermen) see the operation of performance management systems (PMS) in PLG (focusing on the goal-setting process and incentive and reward structures). Theoretical positioning/contributions: With this paper we intend to contribute to literature on how the Otley’s PM framework can guide empirical research about the operation of PMS. In particular, the paper contributes to understand the fit between PMS implemented in PLG and the Otley´s PM framework. The analysis of this fit can be a good contribution to understand if PMS are used in PLG as a management tool or as a strategic response to external pressures (based on interviews conducted to aldermen). We believe that the Otley’s PM framework, as well as the extended PM framework presented by Ferreira and Otley (2009), can provide a useful research tool to understand the operation of PMS in PLG. Research method: The first research question is the central issue in this paper and is analyzed based on the main reforms introduced by Portuguese government on PM of public organizations (like municipalities). On the other hand, interviews conducted on three larger Portuguese municipalities (Oporto, Braga, and Matosinhos) show how aldermen see the operation of PMS in PLG, highlighting the goals setting process with targets associated and the existing of incentive and reward structures linked with performance. Findings: Generally we find that formal and regulated PM frameworks in PLG fit the main issues of the Otley’s PM framework. However, regarding the aldermen perceptions about PMS in practice we find a gap between theory and practice, especially regarding difficulties associated with the lack of a culture of goals and targets setting and the lack of incentive and reward structures linked with performance.

USE AND CONSEQUENCES OF PARTICIPATORY GIS IN A MEXICAN MUNICIPALITY: APPLYING A MULTILEVEL FRAMEWORK

This paper seeks to understand the use and the consequences of Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) in a Mexican local community. A multilevel framework was applied, mainly influenced by two theoretical lenses – structurationist view and social shaping of technology – structured in three dimensions – context, process and content – according to contextualist logic. The results of our study have brought two main contributions. The first is the refinement of the theoretical framework in order to better investigate the implementation and use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) artifacts by local communities for social and environmental purposes. The second contribution is the extension of existing IS (Information Systems) literature on participatory practices through identification of important conditions for helping the mobilization of ICT as a tool for empowering local communities.

Ensuring dynamic strategic fit of firms that compete globally in alliances and networks: proposing the Global SNA - Strategic Network Analysis - framework

In order to sustain their competitive advantage in the current increasingly globalized and turbulent context, more and more firms are competing globally in alliances and networks that oblige them to adopt new managerial paradigms and tools. However, their strategic analyses rarely take into account the strategic implications of these alliances and networks, considering their global relational characteristics, admittedly because of a lack of adequate tools to do so. This paper contributes to research that seeks to fill this gap by proposing the Global Strategic Network Analysis - SNA - framework. Its purpose is to help firms that compete globally in alliances and networks to carry out their strategic assessments and decision-making with a view to ensuring dynamic strategic fit from both a global and relational perspective.

Reflexões para um framework da informação de custos do setor público brasileiro

O presente artigo sumariza uma proposta de framework da informação de custos para o setor público no Brasil. A proposta emergiu de contribuições promovidas pelo governo central no Brasil na realização de duas equipes de trabalho, a primeira pela comissão interministerial em 2005, e a segunda coordenada pelo Ministério da Fazenda em 2008/09. Essas contribuições foram validadas em relação às críticas veiculadas no meio acadêmico quanto às estruturas conceituais da contabilidade financeira (framework) emitidas pelo International Accounting Standards Board e Financial Accounting Standards Board, e em relação à literatura internacional de implantação de sistemas de custos no setor público. A adoção de um sistema de custos é exigida para as entidades públicas no Brasil desde 1964; entretanto, somente agora é objeto de um trabalho conduzido pelo Ministério da Fazenda para o governo federal, cujos primeiros resultados serão divulgados neste ano. O acórdão emitido pelo Tribunal de Contas da União em 2004, determinando que a legislação seja observada, tende a ampliar tal adoção. Contudo, a adoção não é suficiente, é necessária a utilização, que é função da relevância percebida da informação de custos. Sugere-se que a difusão da adoção e uso de sistemas de custos no setor público brasileiro seja feita através de uma implantação gradual, flexível, mediante a adoção do regime de competência, e baseada num framework único e comum às diversas entidades.

Capacidades dinâmicas e rituais de interação entre alta e média gerência: proposta de um framework

O presente artigo foi desenvolvido considerando situações de incerteza ambiental, em que a ordem do dia ou questão estratégica (strategic issue) é a inovação dos recursos, ou seja, transformação, renovação ou desenvolvimento de uma nova capacidade funcional (ordinária). Com o objetivo de compreender como as capacidades dinâmicas desempenham esse papel na inovação dos ativos organizacionais em tais contextos ambientais, propõe-se aqui uma perspectiva alternativa de análise a partir de uma vertente microssociológica, a qual recorre aos elementos constitutivos de rituais de interação segundo Collins (2004). Essa perspectiva oferece possibilidades de investigação da influência das conversações estratégicas, que ocorrem em meio a práticas ritualísticas de interação entre alta e média gerência, sobre o potencial de inovação das capacidades organizacionais. Para compreensão da articulação teórica realizada no trabalho, apresenta-se um framework de análise que agrega a incerteza no nível macro com variáveis comportamentais e organizacionais no nível micro, enquanto elementos mais salientes dos rituais de interação. Visando estudos futuros e melhor compreensão do framework do trabalho, são apresentadas proposições acerca das relações do modelo após o detalhamento da estrutura analítica.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

Scenario Planning and Evaluation of Pricing Strategies in the Portuguese Bulk LPG Market

Portugal has the largest LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) share of primary energy demand in the EU (about 5%). Due to the increasing international cost of LPG in the last years and the high price sensitivity of the consumers the preference for substitute energy sources in new and existing consumers has been increasing. To select the kind of energy, some consumer estimate and compare the total costs while others follow agents (equipment sellers) recommendations. It takes time to build agents perception about the most advantageous source of energy, which is seen as an important resource that drives client resource accumulation and retention. Marketing strategies have to take into consideration some market dynamic effects derived from the accumulation and depletion of these resources. A simple system dynamics model was built, combined with Economic Value Added framework, to evaluate some pricing strategies under different scenarios of LPG international cost.