The hazard potential of the western segment of the Makran subduction zone, northern Arabian Sea

Evaluating the hazard potential of the Makran subduction zone requires understanding the previous records of the large earthquakes and tsunamis. We address this problem by searching for earthquake and tectonic proxies along the Makran Coast and linking those observations with the available constraints on historical seismicity and the tell-tale characteristics of sea floor morphology. The earthquake of Mw 8.1 of 1945 and the consequent tsunami that originated on the eastern part of the Makran are the only historically known hazardous events in this region. The seismic status of the western part of the subduction zone outside the rupture area of the 1945 earthquake remains an enigma. The near-shore shallow stratigraphy of the central part of Makran near Chabahar shows evidence of seismically induced liquefaction that we attribute to the distant effects of the 1945 earthquake. The coastal sites further westward around Jask are remarkable for the absence of liquefaction features, at least at the shallow level. Although a negative evidence, this possibly implies that the western part of Makran Coast region may not have been impacted by near-field large earthquakes in the recent past-a fact also supported by the analysis of historical data. On the other hand, the elevated marine terraces on the western Makran and their uplift rates are indicative of comparable degree of long-term tectonic activity, at least around Chabahar. The offshore data suggest occurrences of recently active submarine slumps on the eastern part of the Makran, reflective of shaking events, owing to the great 1945 earthquake. The ocean floor morphologic features on the western segment, on the contrary, are much subdued and the prograding delta lobes on the shelf edge also remain intact. The coast on the western Makran, in general, shows indications of progradation and uplift. The various lines of evidence thus suggest that although the western segment is potentially seismogenic, large earthquakes have not occurred there in the recent past, at least during the last 600 years. The recurrence period of earthquakes may range up to 1,000 years or more, an assessment based on the age of the youngest dated coastal ridge. The long elapsed time points to the fact that the western segment may have accumulated sufficient slip to produce a major earthquake.

Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system’s Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

Genome sequencing unveils a novel sea enterotoxin-carrying PVL phage in staphylococcus aureus ST772 from India

Staphylococcus aureus is a major human pathogen, first recognized as a leading cause of hospital-acquired infections. Community-associated S. aureus (CA-SA) pose a greater threat due to increase in severity of infection and disease among children and healthy adults. CA-SA strains in India are genetically diverse, among which is the sequence type (ST) 772, which has now spread to Australia, Europe and Japan. Towards understanding the genetic characteristics of ST772, we obtained draft genome sequences of five relevant clinical isolates and studied the properties of their PVL-carrying prophages, whose presence is a defining hallmark of CA-SA. We show that this is a novel prophage, which carries the structural genes of the hlb-carrying prophage and includes the sea enterotoxin. This architecture probably emerged early within the ST772 lineage, at least in India. The sea gene, unique to ST772 PVL, despite having promoter sequence characteristics typical of low expression, appears to be highly expressed during early phase of growth in laboratory conditions. We speculate that this might be a consequence of its novel sequence context. The crippled nature of the hlb-converting prophage in ST772. suggests that widespread mobility of the sea enterotoxin might be a selective force behind its `transfer' to the PVL prophage. Wild type ST772 strains induced strong proliferative responses as well as high cytotoxic activity against neutrophils, likely mediated by superantigen SEA and the PVL toxin respectively. Both proliferation and cytotoxicity were markedly reduced in a cured ST772 strain indicating the impact of the phage on virulence. The presence of SEA alongside he genes for the immune system-modulating PVL toxin may contribute to the success and virulence of ST772.

Sea-level changes and its impact on coastal archaeological monuments: seven pagodas of Mahabalipuram, a case study

The name `Seven Pagodas' has served as a nickname for the south Indian port of Mahabalipuram since the early European explorers used it as landmark for navigation as they could see summits of seven temples from the sea. There are many theories concerning the name Seven Pagodas. The present study has compared coastline and adjacent seven monuments illustrated in a 17th century Portolan Chart (maritime map) with recent remote sensing data. This analysis throws new light on the name ``Seven Pagodas'' for the city. This study has used DEM of the site to simulate the coastline which is similar to the one depicted in the old portolan chart. Through this, the then sea level and corresponding flooding extent according to topography of the area and their effect on monuments could be analyzed. Most importantly this work has in the process identified possibly the seven monuments that constituted the name Seven Pagodas and this provides an alternative explanation to one of the mysteries of history. This work has demonstrated unique method of studying coastal archaeological sites. As large numbers of heritage sites around the world are on coastlines, this methodology has potential to be very useful for coastal heritage preservation and management.

Predictability and chaotic nature of daily streamflow

The predictability of a chaotic series is limited to a few future time steps due to its sensitivity to initial conditions and the exponential divergence of the trajectories. Over the years, streamflow has been considered as a stochastic system in many approaches. In this study, the chaotic nature of daily streamflow is investigated using autocorrelation function, Fourier spectrum, correlation dimension method (Grassberger-Procaccia algorithm) and false nearest neighbor method. Embedding dimensions of 6-7 obtained indicates the possible presence of low-dimensional chaotic behavior. The predictability of the system is estimated by calculating the system's Lyapunov exponent. A positive maximum Lyapunov exponent of 0.167 indicates that the system is chaotic and unstable with a maximum predictability of only 6 days. These results give a positive indication towards considering streamflow as a low dimensional chaotic system than as a stochastic system.

On the epochal variation of intensity of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea

During recent years, an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones (TCs) is observed over the Arabian Sea. This study suggests that this increase is due to epochal variability in the intensity of TCs and is associated with epochal variability in the storm-ambient vertical wind shear and tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP). There is a significant increase (0.53kJcm(-2)year(-1)) of TCHP during recent years. The warmer upper ocean helps TCs to sustain or increase their intensity by an uninterrupted supply of sensible and latent heat fluxes from the ocean surface to the atmosphere.

Hydrographical characteristics and oxygen isotopic signatures of water in a coastal environment (Mangalore) along the southeastern Arabian Sea

Coastal marine environments are important links between the continents and the open ocean. The coast off Mangalore forms part of the upwelling zone along the southeastern Arabian Sea. The temperature, salinity, density, dissolved oxygen and stable oxygen isotope ratio (delta O-18) of surface waters as well as those of bottom waters off coastal Mangalore were studied every month from October 2010 to May 2011. The coastal waters were stratified in October and November due to precipitation and runoff. The region was characterised by upwelled bottom waters in October, whereas the region exhibited a temperature inversion in November. The surface and bottom waters presented almost uniform properties from December until April. The coastal waters were observed to be most dense in January and May. Comparatively cold and poorly oxygenated bottom waters during the May sampling indicated the onset of upwelling along the region. delta O-18 of the coastal waters successfully documented the observed variations in the hydrographical characteristics of the Mangalore coast during the monthly sampling period. We also noted that the monthly variability in the properties of the coastal waters of Mangalore was related to the hydrographical characteristics of the adjacent open ocean inferred from satellite-derived surface winds, sea surface height anomaly data and sea surface temperatures.

Impact of diurnal forcing on intraseasonal sea surface temperature oscillations in the Bay of Bengal

The diurnal cycle is an important mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in tropical oceans, influencing air-sea interaction and climate variability. Upper ocean mixing mechanisms are significant at diurnal time scales controlling the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of SST. Sensitivity experiments using an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) for the summer monsoon of the year 2007 show that incorporation of diurnal cycle in the model atmospheric forcings improves the SST simulation at both intraseasonal and shorter time scales in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). The increase in SST-ISV amplitudes with diurnal forcing is approximate to 0.05 degrees C in the southern bay while it is approximate to 0.02 degrees C in the northern bay. Increased intraseasonal warming with diurnal forcing results from the increase in mixed layer heat gain from insolation, due to shoaling of the daytime mixed layer. Amplified intraseasonal cooling is dominantly controlled by the strengthening of subsurface processes owing to the nocturnal deepening of mixed layer. In the southern bay, intraseasonal variability is mainly determined by the diurnal cycle in insolation, while in the northern bay, diurnal cycle in insolation and winds have comparable contributions. Temperature inversions (TI) develop in the northern bay in the absence of diurnal variability in wind stress. In the northern bay, SST-ISV amplification is not as large as that in the southern bay due to the weaker diurnal variability of mixed layer depth (MLD) limited by salinity stratification. Diurnal variability of model MLD is not sufficient to create large modifications in mixed layer heat budget and SST-ISV in the northern bay.

Parametric Studies on Saltwater Intrusion into Coastal Aquifers for Anticipate Sea Level Rise

Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers is a global issue, exacerbated by increasing demands for freshwater in coastal regions. This study investigates into the parametric analysis on saltwater intrusion in a conceptual, coastal, unconfined aquifer considering wide range of freshwater draft and anticipated sea level rise. The saltwater intrusion under various circumstances is simulated through parametric studies using MODFLOW, MT3DMS and SEAWAT. The MODFLOW is used to simulate the groundwater flow system under changing hydro-dynamics in coastal aquifer. To simulate solute transport MT3DMS and SEAWAT is used. The saltwater intrusion process has direct bearing on hydraulic conductivity and inversely related to porosity. It may also be noted that increase in recharge rate considered in the study does not have much influence on saltwater intrusion. Effect of freshwater draft at locations beyond half of the width of the aquifer considered has marginal effect and hence can be considered as safe zone for freshwater withdrawals. Due to the climate change effect, the anticipated rise in sea level of 0.88 m over a century is considered in the investigation. This causes increase in salinity intrusion by about 25%. The combined effect of sea level rise and freshwater draft (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The time finite element as a robust general scheme for solving nonlinear dynamic equations including chaotic systems

Schemes that can be proven to be unconditionally stable in the linear context can yield unstable solutions when used to solve nonlinear dynamical problems. Hence, the formulation of numerical strategies for nonlinear dynamical problems can be particularly challenging. In this work, we show that time finite element methods because of their inherent energy momentum conserving property (in the case of linear and nonlinear elastodynamics), provide a robust time-stepping method for nonlinear dynamic equations (including chaotic systems). We also show that most of the existing schemes that are known to be robust for parabolic or hyperbolic problems can be derived within the time finite element framework; thus, the time finite element provides a unification of time-stepping schemes used in diverse disciplines. We demonstrate the robust performance of the time finite element method on several challenging examples from the literature where the solution behavior is known to be chaotic. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The time finite element as a robust general scheme for solving nonlinear dynamic equations including chaotic systems

Schemes that can be proven to be unconditionally stable in the linear context can yield unstable solutions when used to solve nonlinear dynamical problems. Hence, the formulation of numerical strategies for nonlinear dynamical problems can be particularly challenging. In this work, we show that time finite element methods because of their inherent energy momentum conserving property (in the case of linear and nonlinear elastodynamics), provide a robust time-stepping method for nonlinear dynamic equations (including chaotic systems). We also show that most of the existing schemes that are known to be robust for parabolic or hyperbolic problems can be derived within the time finite element framework; thus, the time finite element provides a unification of time-stepping schemes used in diverse disciplines. We demonstrate the robust performance of the time finite element method on several challenging examples from the literature where the solution behavior is known to be chaotic. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chaotic dynamic analysis of viscoelastic plates

The dynamic buckling of viscoelastic plates with large deflection is investigated in this paper by using chaotic and fractal theory. The material behavior is given in terms of the Boltzmann superposition principle. in order to obtain accurate computation results, the nonlinear integro-differential dynamic equation is changed into an autonomic four-dimensional dynamical system. The numerical time integrations of equations are performed by using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. And the Lyapunov exponent spectrum, the fractal dimension of strange attractors and the time evolution of deflection are obtained. The influence of geometry nonlinearity and viscoelastic parameter on the dynamic buckling of viscoelastic plates is discussed.

Experimental investigation on the chaotic phenomena in the wake of a natural thermal convection flow

Chaotic phenomena in the wake of thermal convection flow fields above a heating flat plate were investigated experimentally. A newly developed electron beam fluorescence technique (EBF) was used to simultaneously measure density fluctuation at 7 points in a cross section above the plate. Correlation dimensions, intermittence coefficients, Fourier spectrum have been obtained for different Grashof numbers. Spatial distribution of correlation dimensions are presented. The experimental result shows that there is a certain relationship between the density fluctuation and the Gr number. And time-spacial characteristic of chaos evolution is also given.

An overview of air-sea interface process studies

Recent progress in the study of air-sea interface processes for momentum, heat, moisture and mass transfer are reviewed in the present article. Except for turbulent structure, we have analysed the other physical mechanisms occurring in the wave boundary layer, such as the roles of the sea surface state, droplets and bubbles due to wave breaking, which at least partly account for the existing discrepancies between theory and observations. The experiments, both over the ocean and in the laboratory, are described briefly. In conclusion, a few perspective trends in this area are suggested for further investigation.