Fault diagnosis by refining the parameter uncertainty space of nonlinear dynamic systems

This paper deals with fault detection and isolation problems for nonlinear dynamic systems. Both problems are stated as constraint satisfaction problems (CSP) and solved using consistency techniques. The main contribution is the isolation method based on consistency techniques and uncertainty space refining of interval parameters. The major advantage of this method is that the isolation speed is fast even taking into account uncertainty in parameters, measurements, and model errors. Interval calculations bring independence from the assumption of monotony considered by several approaches for fault isolation which are based on observers. An application to a well known alcoholic fermentation process model is presented

A hierarchical approach to model parameter optimization for developmental systems.

In the context of Systems Biology, computer simulations of gene regulatory networks provide a powerful tool to validate hypotheses and to explore possible system behaviors. Nevertheless, modeling a system poses some challenges of its own: especially the step of model calibration is often difficult due to insufficient data. For example when considering developmental systems, mostly qualitative data describing the developmental trajectory is available while common calibration techniques rely on high-resolution quantitative data. Focusing on the calibration of differential equation models for developmental systems, this study investigates different approaches to utilize the available data to overcome these difficulties. More specifically, the fact that developmental processes are hierarchically organized is exploited to increase convergence rates of the calibration process as well as to save computation time. Using a gene regulatory network model for stem cell homeostasis in Arabidopsis thaliana the performance of the different investigated approaches is evaluated, documenting considerable gains provided by the proposed hierarchical approach.

Slope processes in changing permafrost environments: a geomorphological and sedimentological approach

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada al Centro de Estudos Geograficos de la Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal, entre 2011 i 2012. En aquest grup he desenvolupat la meva recerca focalitzada en ambients polars en presència de permafrost, concretament centrada en l’extrem nord-occidental de la Península Antàrtica (Shetland del Sud) i a l’Alt Àrtic (Svalvard). Ambdós àrees han registrat un augment de temperatura molt significatiu les darreres dècades. La meva recerca ha contemplat l’anàlisi de registres sedimentaris (lacustres, eòlics, vessant) i la monitorització de processos geomorfològics actuals a fi efecte d’entendre la dinàmica ambiental present i passada (i.e. clima). Amb aquesta finalitat he realitzat tres campanyes de treball de camp a l’Antàrtida i dues a l’Àrtic. El posterior treball de laboratori i d’oficina està propiciant nombroses publicacions que donen fe dels èxits assolits. A més, cal enfatitzar altres activitats desenvolupades durant la BP-A: coneixement de com organitzar i gestionar una campanya antàrtica, docència universitària, participació en comitès, associacions i tribunals de tesis doctorals, organització i participació en nombroses conferències, treball de camp en noves àrees d’estudi, referee per revistes internacionals, etc. Tanmateix, la concessió del projecte de recerca HOLOANTAR, del qual en sóc l’Investigador Responsable, ha estat l’èxit més important d’aquesta estada. Aquest projecte m’està conferint la capacitat de gestionar i integrar la recerca de 16 investigadors de diferents nacionalitats des d’una perspectiva multidisciplinar. Tothora, cal remarcar que no s’ha assolit un dels èxits que pretenia el meu projecte de BP-A: la transferència del bagatge i coneixement adquirit al sistema de recerca català. Malgrat haver presentat la meva candidatura per un contracte BP-B per tal que aquest background après a l’estranger revertís a Catalunya, el procés de selecció emprat en la convocatòria ho ha impedit i m’obliga a continuar la meva recerca a l’estranger.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

S-system parameter estimation for noisy metabolic profiles using newton-flow analysis.

Biochemical systems are commonly modelled by systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). A particular class of such models called S-systems have recently gained popularity in biochemical system modelling. The parameters of an S-system are usually estimated from time-course profiles. However, finding these estimates is a difficult computational problem. Moreover, although several methods have been recently proposed to solve this problem for ideal profiles, relatively little progress has been reported for noisy profiles. We describe a special feature of a Newton-flow optimisation problem associated with S-system parameter estimation. This enables us to significantly reduce the search space, and also lends itself to parameter estimation for noisy data. We illustrate the applicability of our method by applying it to noisy time-course data synthetically produced from previously published 4- and 30-dimensional S-systems. In addition, we propose an extension of our method that allows the detection of network topologies for small S-systems. We introduce a new method for estimating S-system parameters from time-course profiles. We show that the performance of this method compares favorably with competing methods for ideal profiles, and that it also allows the determination of parameters for noisy profiles.

Sediment penetration depths of epi- and infaunal ostracods from Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

Many (palaeo-)environmental parameters can be deduced from ecological and chemical analyses of ostracods. However, the specific ecology of each taxon has a great impact on its reaction to changing environmental conditions. As a consequence, each taxon records these changes differently. The mean penetration depth (MPD) and relative individual abundances have been documented along sediment depth profiles for the dominant sub-littoral to profundal species of ostracods in western Lake Geneva, Switzerland, and this data can be used to estimate their preferential habitat in terms of sediment depths. Isocypris beauchampi, Limnocytherina sanctipatricii, Cypria ophtalmica forma lacustris at 13-m water depths, Limnocythere inopinata, and a winter generation of Herpetocypris reptans have the shallowest habitat preferences at the study sites (MPDs of 0.45, 0.48, 0.49, 0.60, and 0.81 cm, respectively). These results suggest that these populations may be regarded as being preferentially epifaunal forms. Populations of Cytherissa lacustris (MPDs of 0.61, 0.73, and 0.82 cm at 13-, 33-, and 70-m water depths, respectively), Cypria ophtalmica forma lacustris at 70 m (MPD = 0.96 cm), Fabaeformiscandona caudata (MPD = 0.99 cm), and a summer generation of Herpetocypris reptans (MPD = 1.03 cm) were identified as being infaunal. Candona neglecta is the species that was found the deepest in the sediment of Lake Geneva, with MPDs of 0.65, 1.22, and 1.30 cm at 13-, 33-, and 70-m water depths, respectively. Information on the sediment texture and oxygen concentrations inferred from the analyses of sediment pore water suggest that the oxygen content of the sediment pore water is not the only dominant parameter controlling the differences in ostracod sediment penetration depths observed among the different sites, but that they might also be influenced by the sediment 'softness,' which itself depends on grain size, water content, and the abundance of organic matter in sediment.

Estimation of the viscoelastic properties of vessel walls using a computational model and Doppler ultrasound

Human arteries affected by atherosclerosis are characterized by altered wall viscoelastic properties. The possibility of noninvasively assessing arterial viscoelasticity in vivo would significantly contribute to the early diagnosis and prevention of this disease. This paper presents a noniterative technique to estimate the viscoelastic parameters of a vascular wall Zener model. The approach requires the simultaneous measurement of flow variations and wall displacements, which can be provided by suitable ultrasound Doppler instruments. Viscoelastic parameters are estimated by fitting the theoretical constitutive equations to the experimental measurements using an ARMA parameter approach. The accuracy and sensitivity of the proposed method are tested using reference data generated by numerical simulations of arterial pulsation in which the physiological conditions and the viscoelastic parameters of the model can be suitably varied. The estimated values quantitatively agree with the reference values, showing that the only parameter affected by changing the physiological conditions is viscosity, whose relative error was about 27% even when a poor signal-to-noise ratio is simulated. Finally, the feasibility of the method is illustrated through three measurements made at different flow regimes on a cylindrical vessel phantom, yielding a parameter mean estimation error of 25%.

Multiuser detection in a dynamic environment — Part II: Joint user identification and parameter estimation

The problem of jointly estimating the number, the identities, and the data of active users in a time-varying multiuser environment was examined in a companion paper (IEEE Trans. Information Theory, vol. 53, no. 9, September 2007), at whose core was the use of the theory of finite random sets on countable spaces. Here we extend that theory to encompass the more general problem of estimating unknown continuous parameters of the active-user signals. This problem is solved here by applying the theory of random finite sets constructed on hybrid spaces. We doso deriving Bayesian recursions that describe the evolution withtime of a posteriori densities of the unknown parameters and data.Unlike in the above cited paper, wherein one could evaluate theexact multiuser set posterior density, here the continuous-parameter Bayesian recursions do not admit closed-form expressions. To circumvent this difficulty, we develop numerical approximationsfor the receivers that are based on Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC)methods (“particle filtering”). Simulation results, referring to acode-divisin multiple-access (CDMA) system, are presented toillustrate the theory.

Social bases of changing income distributions

On the backdrop of very little sociological concern with rising income inequality, this paper examines how key changes in sociodemographic behaviour may help shed additional light on changes in household income distribution and especially on long-term income dynamics and inter-generational mobility. The paper argues that the joint effect of rising marital homogamy in terms of human capital and labour supply contributes generally to widen the income gap between households. Only uner very restrictive conditions, namely when the labour supply of low educated women grows dis-proportionally fast, will women's earnings contribute to more equality. Finally, the paper suggests that women's rising employment commitments contribute positively to equalizing the opportunity structure both via the income effect and if quality care is available, also via more homogenous cultural and cognitive stimulation of children. Mother's work does not generally have adverse effects for children's development.

Haemodynamic consequences of changing potassium concentrations in haemodialysis fluids.

BACKGROUND: A rapid decrease of serum potassium concentrations during haemodialysis produces a significant increase in blood pressure parameters at the end of the session, even if effects on intra-dialysis pressure are not seen. Paradoxically, in animal models potassium is a vasodilator and decreases myocardial contractility. The purpose of this trial is to study the precise haemodynamic consequences induced by acute changes in potassium concentration during haemodialysis. METHODS: In 24 patients, 288 dialysis sessions, using a randomised single blind crossover design, we compared six dialysate sequences with different potassium profiles. The dialysis sessions were divided into 3 tertiles, casually modulating potassium concentration in the dialysate between the value normally used K and the two cut-off points K+1 and K-1 mmol/l. Haemodynamics were evaluated in a non-invasive manner using a finger beat-to-beat monitor. RESULTS: Comparing K-1 and K+1, differences were found within the tertiles regarding systolic (+5.3, +6.6, +2.3 mmHg, p < 0.05, < 0.05, ns) and mean blood pressure (+4.3, +6.4, -0.5 mmHg, p < 0.01, < 0.01, ns), as well as peripheral resistance (+212, +253, -4 dyne.sec.cm-5, p < 0.05, < 0.05, ns). The stroke volume showed a non-statistically-significant inverse trend (-3.1, -5.2, -0.2 ml). 18 hypotension episodes were recorded during the course of the study. 72% with K-1, 11% with K and 17% with K+1 (p < 0.01 for comparison K-1 vs. K and K-1 vs. K+1). CONCLUSIONS: A rapid decrease in the concentration of serum potassium during the initial stage of the dialysis-obtained by reducing the concentration of potassium in the dialysate-translated into a decrease of systolic and mean blood pressure mediated by a decrease in peripheral resistance. The risk of intra-dialysis hypotension inversely correlates to the potassium concentration in the dialysate. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01224314.

Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times.

In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level. We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.

ILS-ESP An efficient, simple, and parameter-free algorithm for solving the permutation flow-shop problem

From a managerial point of view, the more effcient, simple, and parameter-free (ESP) an algorithm is, the more likely it will be used in practice for solving real-life problems. Following this principle, an ESP algorithm for solving the Permutation Flowshop Sequencing Problem (PFSP) is proposed in this article. Using an Iterated Local Search (ILS) framework, the so-called ILS-ESP algorithm is able to compete in performance with other well-known ILS-based approaches, which are considered among the most effcient algorithms for the PFSP. However, while other similar approaches still employ several parameters that can affect their performance if not properly chosen, our algorithm does not require any particular fine-tuning process since it uses basic "common sense" rules for the local search, perturbation, and acceptance criterion stages of the ILS metaheuristic. Our approach defines a new operator for the ILS perturbation process, a new acceptance criterion based on extremely simple and transparent rules, and a biased randomization process of the initial solution to randomly generate different alternative initial solutions of similar quality -which is attained by applying a biased randomization to a classical PFSP heuristic. This diversification of the initial solution aims at avoiding poorly designed starting points and, thus, allows the methodology to take advantage of current trends in parallel and distributed computing. A set of extensive tests, based on literature benchmarks, has been carried out in order to validate our algorithm and compare it against other approaches. These tests show that our parameter-free algorithm is able to compete with state-of-the-art metaheuristics for the PFSP. Also, the experiments show that, when using parallel computing, it is possible to improve the top ILS-based metaheuristic by just incorporating to it our biased randomization process with a high-quality pseudo-random number generator.

Interhuman transmission as a potential key parameter for geographical variation in the prevalence of Pneumocystis jirovecii dihydropteroate synthase mutations.

BACKGROUND: Pneumocystis jirovecii dihydropteroate synthase (DHPS) mutations are associated with failure of prophylaxis with sulfa drugs. This retrospective study sought to better understand the geographical variation in the prevalence of these mutations. METHODS: DHPS polymorphisms in 394 clinical specimens from immunosuppressed patients who received a diagnosis of P. jirovecii pneumonia and who were hospitalized in 3 European cities were examined using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) single-strand conformation polymorphism. Demographic and clinical characteristics were obtained from patients' medical charts. RESULTS: Of the 394 patients, 79 (20%) were infected with a P. jirovecii strain harboring one or both of the previously reported DHPS mutations. The prevalence of DHPS mutations was significantly higher in Lyon than in Switzerland (33.0% vs 7.5%; P < .001). The proportion of patients with no evidence of sulfa exposure who harbored a mutant P. jirovecii DHPS genotype was significantly higher in Lyon than in Switzerland (29.7% vs 3.0%; P < .001). During the study period in Lyon, in contrast to the Swiss hospitals, measures to prevent dissemination of P. jirovecii from patients with P. jirovecii pneumonia were generally not implemented, and most patients received suboptimal prophylaxis, the failure of which was strictly associated with mutated P. jirovecii. Thus, nosocomial interhuman transmission of mutated strains directly or indirectly from other individuals in whom selection of mutants occurred may explain the high proportion of mutations without sulfa exposure in Lyon. CONCLUSIONS: Interhuman transmission of P. jirovecii, rather than selection pressure by sulfa prophylaxis, may play a predominant role in the geographical variation in the prevalence in the P. jirovecii DHPS mutations.