Models and applications for risk assessment and prediction of Asian soybean rust epidemics

Asian rust of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merril] is one of the most important fungal diseases of this crop worldwide. The recent introduction of Phakopsora pachyrhizi Syd. & P. Syd in the Americas represents a major threat to soybean production in the main growing regions, and significant losses have already been reported. P. pachyrhizi is extremely aggressive under favorable weather conditions, causing rapid plant defoliation. Epidemiological studies, under both controlled and natural environmental conditions, have been done for several decades with the aim of elucidating factors that affect the disease cycle as a basis for disease modeling. The recent spread of Asian soybean rust to major production regions in the world has promoted new development, testing and application of mathematical models to assess the risk and predict the disease. These efforts have included the integration of new data, epidemiological knowledge, statistical methods, and advances in computer simulation to develop models and systems with different spatial and temporal scales, objectives and audience. In this review, we present a comprehensive discussion on the models and systems that have been tested to predict and assess the risk of Asian soybean rust. Limitations, uncertainties and challenges for modelers are also discussed.

Effects of Socioeconomic Status and Sociodemographic Features on Cardiovascular Disease. Mortality and Morbidity in Finland

Despite declining trends in morbidity and mortality, cardiovascular diseases have a considerable impact on Finnish public health. A goal in Finnish health policy is to reduce inequalities in health and mortality among population groups. The aim of this study was to assess inequalities in cardiovascular diseases according to socioeconomic status (SES), language groups and other sociodemographic characteristics. The main data source was generated from events in 35-99 year-old men and women registered in the population-based FINMONICA and FINAMI myocardial infarction registers during the years ranging from 1988-2002. Information on population group characteristics was obtained from Statistics Finland. Additional data were derived from the FINMONICA and FINSTROKE stroke registers and the FINRISK Study. SES, measured by income level, was a major determinant of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) mortality. Among middle-aged men, the 28-day mortality rate of the lowest group of six income groups was 5.2 times and incidence 2.7 times as high when compared to the highest income group. Among women, the differences were even larger. Among the unmarried, the incidence of ACS was approximately 1.6 times as high and their prognosis was significantly worse than among married persons - both in men and women and independent of age. Higher age-standardized attack rates of ACS and stroke were found among Finnish-speaking compared to Swedish-speaking men in Turku and these differences could not be completely explained by SES. In these language groups, modest differences were found in traditional risk factor levels possibly explaining part of the found morbidity and mortality inequality. In conclusion, there are considerable differences in the morbidity and mortality of ACS and stroke between socioeconomic and sociodemographic groups, in Finland. Focusing measures to reduce the excess morbidity and mortality, in groups at high risk, could decrease the economic burden of cardiovascular diseases and thus be an important public health goal in Finland.

Percent body fat is a better predictor of cardiovascular risk factors than body mass index

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the predictive values of percent body fat (PBF) and body mass index (BMI) for cardiovascular risk factors, especially when PBF and BMI are conflicting. BMI was calculated by the standard formula and PBF was determined by bioelectrical impedance analysis. A total of 3859 ambulatory adult Han Chinese subjects (2173 males and 1686 females, age range: 18-85 years) without a history of cardiovascular diseases were recruited from February to September 2009. Based on BMI and PBF, they were classified into group 1 (normal BMI and PBF, N = 1961), group 2 (normal BMI, but abnormal PBF, N = 381), group 3 (abnormal BMI, but normal PBF, N = 681), and group 4 (abnormal BMI and PBF, N = 836). When age, gender, lifestyle, and family history of obesity were adjusted, PBF, but not BMI, was correlated with blood glucose and lipid levels. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for cardiovascular risk factors in groups 2 and 4 were 1.88 (1.45-2.45) and 2.06 (1.26-3.35) times those in group 1, respectively, but remained unchanged in group 3 (OR = 1.32, 95%CI = 0.92-1.89). Logistic regression models also demonstrated that PBF, rather than BMI, was independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors. In conclusion, PBF, and not BMI, is independently associated with cardiovascular risk factors, indicating that PBF is a better predictor.

Cardiovascular health risk profiling of Niagara Region grade 9 students : implications for elementary curriculum /

The purpose of this study was to determine if Ontario's health and physical education curriculum contributes sufficiently to ensure the health of our children and young adults. To determine the curriculum effect, the health risk profile of Niagara Region's grade 9 students was compared to Canada's adolescent population. All subjects completed a "Heart Health Lifestyle" survey and were measured for height, weight, percent body fat, blood pressure, and total cholesterol and performed the 20-metre shuttle run test as part of their physical and health education classes. The Niagara Region grade 9 population had a healthy risk profile. Aerobic power was inversely related, and cholesterol levels were positively associated to body mass index and percent body fat in the whole group analysis. These results indicate that physical education can offer unique and essential aspects allowing individuals a means to learn and control body movements and keep physically fit while providing protection against modern disease. Ontario's health and physical education curriculum does contribute to the health of our children and adolescents; however, there is a need to implement a stronger mandate for daily vigorous physical activity.

Cardiovascular disease in latin american patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a cross-sectional study and a systematic review

Objective. This study was performed to determine the prevalence of and associated risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Latin American (LA) patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods. First, a cross-sectional analytical study was conducted in 310 Colombian patients with SLE in whom CVD was assessed. Associated factors were examined by multivariate regression analyses. Second, a systematic review of the literature on CVD in SLE in LA was performed. Results. There were 133 (36.5%) Colombian SLE patients with CVD. Dyslipidemia, smoking, coffee consumption, and pleural effusion were positively associated with CVD. An independent effect of coffee consumption and cigarette on CVD was found regardless of gender and duration of disease. In the systematic review, 60 articles fulfilling the eligibility criteria were included. A wide range of CVD prevalence was found (4%–79.5%). Several studies reported ancestry, genetic factors, and polyautoimmunity as novel risk factors for such a condition.Conclusions. A high rate of CVD is observed in LA patients with SLE. Awareness of the observed risk factors should encourage preventive population strategies for CVD in patients with SLE aimed at facilitating the suppression of cigarette smoking and coffee consumption as well as at the tight control of dyslipidemia and other modifiable risk factors.

Omega-3 fatty acids, cardiovascular disease and stability of atherosclerotic plaques

Long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids are found in oily fish and in fish oils and similar preparations. Substantial evidence from epidemiological and case-control studies indicates that consumption of fish, oily fish and long-chain n-3 fatty acids reduces risk of cardiovascular mortality. Secondary prevention studies using long-chain n-3 fatty acids in patients post-myocardial infarction have shown a reduction in total and cardiovascular mortality with an especially potent effect on sudden death. Long-chain n-3 fatty acids have been shown to beneficially modify a range of cardiovascular risk factors, which may result in primary cardiovascular prevention. However, reduced non-fatal and fatal events and a reduction in sudden death probably involve other mechanisms. Reduced thrombosis following long-chain n-3 fatty acids may play a role. A decrease in arrhythmias is a favoured mechanism of action of long-chain n-3 fatty acids and is supported by cell culture and animal studies. However human trials using implantable cardiac defibrillators have produced inconsistent findings and a recent meta-analysis does not support this mechanism of action. An alternative mechanism of action may be stabilisation of atherosclerotic plaques by long-chain n-3 fatty acids. This is suggested by one published human study which showed that incorporation of long-chain n-3 fatty acids into plaques collected at carotid endarterectomy resulted in fewer macrophages in the plaque and a morphology indicative of increased stability. These findings are supported from observations in an animal model and suggest that the primary effect of long-chain n-3 fatty acids might be on macrophages within the plaque.

Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and Phytophthora kernoviae in the UK

We developed a stochastic simulation model incorporating most processes likely to be important in the spread of Phytophthora ramorum and similar diseases across the British landscape (covering Rhododendron ponticum in woodland and nurseries, and Vaccinium myrtillus in heathland). The simulation allows for movements of diseased plants within a realistically modelled trade network and long-distance natural dispersal. A series of simulation experiments were run with the model, representing an experiment varying the epidemic pressure and linkage between natural vegetation and horticultural trade, with or without disease spread in commercial trade, and with or without inspections-with-eradication, to give a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 factorial started at 10 arbitrary locations spread across England. Fifty replicate simulations were made at each set of parameter values. Individual epidemics varied dramatically in size due to stochastic effects throughout the model. Across a range of epidemic pressures, the size of the epidemic was 5-13 times larger when commercial movement of plants was included. A key unknown factor in the system is the area of susceptible habitat outside the nursery system. Inspections, with a probability of detection and efficiency of infected-plant removal of 80% and made at 90-day intervals, reduced the size of epidemics by about 60% across the three sectors with a density of 1% susceptible plants in broadleaf woodland and heathland. Reducing this density to 0.1% largely isolated the trade network, so that inspections reduced the final epidemic size by over 90%, and most epidemics ended without escape into nature. Even in this case, however, major wild epidemics developed in a few percent of cases. Provided the number of new introductions remains low, the current inspection policy will control most epidemics. However, as the rate of introduction increases, it can overwhelm any reasonable inspection regime, largely due to spread prior to detection. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supplementation with fruit and vegetable soups and beverages increases plasma carotenoid concentrations but does not alter markers of oxidative stress or cardiovascular risk factors

This study was aimed at determining whether an increase of 5 portions of fruits and vegetables in the form of soups and beverages has a beneficial effect on markers of oxidative stress and cardiovascular disease risk factors. The study was a single blind, randomized, controlled, crossover dietary intervention study. After a 2-wk run-in period with fish oil supplementation, which continued throughout the dietary intervention to increase oxidative stress, the volunteers consumed carotenoid-rich or control vegetable soups and beverages for 4 wk. After a 10-wk wash-out period, the volunteers repeated the above protocol, consuming the other intervention foods. Both test and control interventions significantly increased the % energy from carbohydrates and decreased dietary protein and vitamin B-12 intakes. Compared with the control treatment, consumption of the carotenoid-rich soups and beverages increased dietary carotenoids, vitamin C, alpha-tocopherol, potassium, and folate, and the plasma concentrations of alpha-carotene (362%), beta-carotene (250%) and lycopene (31%) (P < 0.01) and decreased the plasma homocysteine concentration by 8.8% (P < 0.01). The reduction in plasma homocysteine correlated weakly with the increase in dietary folate during the test intervention (r = -0.35, P = 0.04). The plasma antioxidant status and markers of oxidative stress were not affected by treatment. Consumption of fruit and vegetable soups and beverages makes a useful contribution to meeting dietary recommendations for fruit and vegetable consumption.

Dietary fat composition and cardiovascular disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), which includes coronary heart disease and stroke, remains the major killer in the EU, being responsible for 42% of total mortality. The amount and composition of dietary fat is arguably the most important dietary factor contributing to disease risk. A significant body of consistent evidence indicates that a decrease in dietary saturated fat:unsaturated (polyunsaturated + monounsaturated) ratio and an increased intake of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC n-3 PUFA) found in fish, is cardioprotective. Furthermore, although the evidence is currently less convincing, such a strategy is also likely to improve insulin sensitivity, the central metabolic defect in diabetes. Currently in the UK only 12% of men, 17% of women and 8% of children have an SFA intakes <10% of energy. The average intake of LC n-3 PUFA is <0.2 g/day, which is less than half the current conservative recommendation of a minimum of 0.45 g/day. Public health strategies to reverse these dietary fatty acid imbalances, aimed at educating and motivating the consumer and making affordable and acceptable food products with an ‘enhanced’ fatty acid profile more widely available, must remain a public health priority in the ‘fight’ against CVD.

Functional food, blood lipids and cardiovascular disease. Part 1: probiotics

For the past 20 years, the focuses of public health strategies for reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been aimed at lowering cholesterol levels. However recent findings have highlighted not only cholesterol but also triacylglycerol as a lipid risk factor for CVD. Dietary strategies which are able to reduce these circulating lipid levels, but which are able to offer long-term efficacy comparable with effective drug treatments, are currently being sought. One dietary strategy that has been proposed to benefit the lipid profile involves the supplementation of the diet with probiotics (Part 1), prebiotics and synbiotics (Part 2), which are mechanisms to improve the health of the host by supplementation and/or fortification of certain health promoting gut bacteria. Probiotics in the form of fermented milk products have been shown to have cholesterol-lowering properties, whereas non-digestible fermentable prebiotics have been shown to reduce triacylglycerol levels in animal studies. However in humans studies, there have been inconsistent findings with respect to changes in lipid levels with both prebiotics and probiotics although on the whole there have been favourable outcomes.

Personalized nutrition for the prevention of cardiovascular disease: a future perspective

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is responsible for significant morbidity and mortality in the Western and developing world. This multifactorial disease is influenced by many environmental and genetic factors. At present, public health advice involves prescribed population-based recommendations, which have been largely unsuccessful in reducing CVD risk. This is, in part, due to individual variability in response to dietary manipulations, that arises from nutrient-gene interactions (defined by the term 'nutrigenetics'). The shift towards personalized nutritional advice is a very attractive proposition, where, in principle, an individual can be given dietary advice specifically tailored to their genotype. However, the evidence-base for the impact of interactions between nutrients and fixed genetic variants on biomarkers of CVD risk is still very limited. This paper reviews the evidence for interactions between dietary fat and two common polymorphisms in the apolipoprotein E and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma genes. Although an increased understanding of how these and other genes influence response to nutrients should facilitate the progression of personalized nutrition, the ethical issues surrounding its routine use need careful consideration.

Impact of apoE genotype on oxidative stress, inflammation and disease risk

Although in developing countries an apolipoprotein E4 (apoE4) genotype may offer an evolutionary advantage, as it has been shown to offer protection against certain infectious disease, in Westernised societies it is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, and represents a significant risk factor for cardiovascular disease, late-onset Alzheimer's disease and other chronic disorders. ApoE is an important modulator of many stages of lipoprotein metabolism and traditionally the increased risk was attributed to higher lipid levels in E4 carriers. However, more recent evidence demonstrates the multifunctional nature of the apoE protein and the fact that the impact of genotype on disease risk may be in large part due to an impact on oxidative status or the immunomodulatory/anti-inflammatory properties of apoE. An increasing number of studies in cell lines, targeted replacement rodents and human volunteers indicate higher oxidative stress and a more pro-inflammatory state associated with the F,4 allele. The impact of genotype on the antioxidant and immunomodulatory/anti-inflammatory properties of apoE is the focus of the current review. Furthermore, current information on the impact of environment (diet, exercise, smoking status, alcohol) on apoE genotype-phenotype associations are discussed with a view to identifying particular lifestyle strategies that could be adapted to counteract the 'at-risk' E4 genotype.

Functional food, blood lipids and cardiovascular disease. Part 2: prebiotics and synbiotics

For the past 20 years, the focuses of public health strategies for reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been aimed at lowering cholesterol levels. However, recent findings have highlighted not only cholesterol but also triacylglycerol as a lipid risk factor for CVD. Dietary strategies which are able to reduce these Circulating lipid levels, but which are able to offer longterm efficacy comparable with effective drug treatments, are currently being sought. One dietary strategy that has been proposed to benefit the lipid profile involves the supplementation of the diet with probiotics (Part 1) prebiotics and synbiotics (Part 2), which are mechanisms to improve the health of the host by supplementation and/or fortification of certain health promoting gut bacteria. Probiotics in the form of fermented milk products have been shown to have cholesterol-lowering properties, whereas non-digestible fermentable prebiotics have been shown to reduce triacylglycerol levels in animal studies, However, in human studies, there have been inconsistent findings with respect to changes in lipid levels with both prebiotics and probiotics although on the whole there have been favourable outcomes.

Chronic disease risk associated with different dietary saturated fatty acids

This chapter compares the risks of chronic disease, and cardiovascular disease in particular, associated with consumption of different saturated fatty acids. Emphasis is placed on the effects of stearic acid as this has potential to replace trans fatty acids in certain manufactured food products. The chapter first reviews the effects of individual saturated fatty acids on blood lipids, including cholesterol, as these are commonly used as markers of disease risk. It then looks directly at evidence in relation to health outcomes. Finally, recent evidence specifically on the effect of stearic acid relative to other fatty acids, including trans fatty acids, is summarised.