Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

The role of material characterisation in the crush modelling of thermoplastic composite structures

The predictive capability of high fidelity finite element modelling, to accurately capture damage and crush behaviour of composite structures, relies on the acquisition of accurate material properties, some of which have necessitated the development of novel approaches. This paper details the measurement of interlaminar and intralaminar fracture toughness, the non-linear shear behaviour of carbon fibre (AS4)/thermoplastic Polyetherketoneketone (PEKK) composite laminates and the utilisation of these properties for the accurate computational modelling of crush. Double-cantilever-beam (DCB), four-point end-notched flexure (4ENF) and Mixed-mode bending (MMB) test configurations were used to determine the initiation and propagation fracture toughness in mode I, mode II and mixed-mode loading, respectively. Compact Tension (CT) and Compact Compression (CC) test samples were employed to determine the intralaminar longitudinal tensile and compressive fracture toughness. V-notched rail shear tests were used to measure the highly non-linear shear behaviour, associated with thermoplastic composites, and fracture toughness. Corresponding numerical models of these tests were developed for verification and yielded good correlation with the experimental response. This also confirmed the accuracy of the measured values which were then employed as input material parameters for modelling the crush behaviour of a corrugated test specimen.

Investigation of material transfer in sliding friction-topography or surface chemistry?

To differentiate between the roles of surface topography and chemical composition on influencing friction and transfer in sliding contact, a series of tests were performed in situ in an SEM. The initial sliding during metal forming was investigated, using an aluminum tip representing the work material, put into sliding contact with a polished flat tool material. Both DLC-coated and uncoated tool steel was used. By varying the final polishing step of the tool material, different surface topographies were obtained. The study demonstrates the strong influence from nano topography of an unpolished DLC coated surface on both coefficient of friction and material transfer. The influence of tool surface chemistry is also discussed.

Multi-objective optimization of material model parameters of an adhesive layer by using SPEA2

The usage of multi material structures in industry, especially in the automotive industry are increasing. To overcome the difficulties in joining these structures, adhesives have several benefits over traditional joining methods. Therefore, accurate simulations of the entire process of fracture including the adhesive layer is crucial. In this paper, material parameters of a previously developed meso mechanical finite element (FE) model of a thin adhesive layer are optimized using the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA2). Objective functions are defined as the error between experimental data and simulation data. The experimental data is provided by previously performed experiments where an adhesive layer was loaded in monotonically increasing peel and shear. Two objective functions are dependent on 9 model parameters (decision variables) in total and are evaluated by running two FEsimulations, one is loading the adhesive layer in peel and the other in shear. The original study converted the two objective functions into one function that resulted in one optimal solution. In this study, however, a Pareto frontis obtained by employing the SPEA2 algorithm. Thus, more insight into the material model, objective functions, optimal solutions and decision space is acquired using the Pareto front. We compare the results and show good agreement with the experimental data.

Studio della produzione di componenti meccanici per la vettura Unibo Motorsport

Dal 2010 al 2012 ho fatto parte del team UniBo Motorsport, che partecipa alle competizioni di Formula SAE, una categoria di vetture monoposto a ruote scoperte con cilindrata fino a 610cm^3, interamente progettate e costruite da studenti universitari, valutati non solo per le prestazioni dinamiche della vettura ma anche su prove statiche legate agli aspetti progettuali, economici e gestionali. Nel team ho curato i servizi IT e le prove statiche "Presentation Event", una simulazione di business plan per una nuova impresa automotive legata al prototipo, e "Cost & Manufacturing Analysis Event", un'analisi dei costi e della produzione attraverso una distinta base di produzione della vettura. In particolare nel 2012 sono stato responsabile della distinta base, introducendo importanti strumenti ed ottimizzazioni per semplificare la redazione ed ottenere migliori risultati. Nel 2013 ho fornito consulenza ai membri del team che ora seguono il lavoro. A partire da questa esperienza ho deciso di sviluppare la tesi sul tema della gestione della distinta base di produzione, spiegando nel dettaglio i cambiamenti apportati, le motivazioni e i risultati ottenuti. Prendo inoltre in esame alcuni componenti meccanici della vettura, sia per esemplificare la redazione della distinta base, che per alcuni aspetti interessanti di questi componenti: le ruote foniche, per cui sono disponibili molti dettagli sulle fasi di produzione, i rocker delle sospensioni e la corona monoblocco, di cui è stata considerata la produzione da parte di fornitori asiatici oltre che locali con vari preventivi disponibili per il confronto dei diversi mercati.

Submarine deposition of volcaniclastic material from the 1995-2005 eruptions of Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat

Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, has been erupting since 1995. During the current eruption, a large part of the material produced by the volcano has been transported into the sea, modifying the morphology of the submarine flanks of the volcano. We present a unique set of swath bathymetric data collected offshore from Montserrat in 1999, 2002 and 2005. From 1999 to 2002, pyroclastic flows associated with numerous dome collapses entered the sea to produce 100 Mm3 deposit. From 2002 to 2005, the 290 Mm3 submarine deposit is mainly from the 12–13 July 2003 collapse. These data allow us to estimate that, by May 2005, at least 482 Mm3 of material had been deposited on the sea floor since 1995. We compare on-land characteristics and volumes of dome collapse events with the submarine deposits and propose a new analysis of their emplacement on the submarine flanks of the volcano. The deposition mechanism shows a slope dependence, with the maximum thickness of deposit before the break in the slope, probably because of the type of the dense granular flow involved. We conclude that from 1995 to 2005 more than 75% of the erupted volume entered the sea.

Estimates of lost material stock of buildings and roads due to the great east Japan earthquake and tsunami

This article describes research conducted for the Japanese government in the wake of the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck eastern Japan on March 11, 2011. In this study, material stock analysis (MSA) is used to examine the losses of building and infrastructure materials after this disaster. Estimates of the magnitude of material stock that has lost its social function as a result of a disaster can indicate the quantities required for reconstruction, help garner a better understanding of the volumes of waste flows generated by that disaster, and also help in the course of policy deliberations in the recovery of disaster-stricken areas. Calculations of the lost building and road materials in the five prefectures most affected were undertaken. Analysis in this study is based on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) databases and statistics; it aims to (1) describe in spatial terms what construction materials were lost, (2) estimate the amount of infrastructure material needed to rehabilitate disaster areas, and (3) indicate the amount of lost material stock that should be taken into consideration during government policy deliberations. Our analysis concludes that the material stock losses of buildings and road infrastructure are 31.8 and 2.1 million tonnes, respectively. This research approach and the use of spatial MSA can be useful for urban planners and may also convey more appropriate information about disposal based on the work of municipalities in disaster-afflicted areas.

Effect of organic gate dielectric material properties on interfacial charging and discharging of pentacene MIM device

The effect of material properties of an environmentally friendly, optically transparent dielectric material, polyterpenol, on the carrier transients within the pentacene-based double-layer MTM device was investigated. Polyterpenol films were RF plasma polymerised under varied process conditions, with resultant films differing in surface chemistry and morphology. Independent of type of polyterpenol, time-resolved EFISHG study of IZO/polyterpenol/pentacene/Au structures showed similar transient behaviour with carriers injected into pentacene from Au electrode only, confirming polyterpenol to be a suitable blocking layer for visualisation of single-species carrier transportation during charging and discharging under different bias conditions. Polyterpenol fabricated under higher input power show better promise due to higher chemical and thermal stability, improved uniformity, and absence of defects.

Characterisation of head-hardened rail steel in terms of cyclic plasticity response and microstructure for improved material modelling

Stress- and strain-controlled tests of heat treated high-strength rail steel (Australian Standard AS1085.1) have been performed in order to improve the characterisation of the said material׳s ratcheting and fatigue wear behaviour. The hardness of the rail head material has also been studied and it has been found that hardness reduces considerably below four-millimetres from the rail top surface. Historically, researchers have used test coupons with circular cross-sections to conduct cyclic load tests. Such test coupons, typically five-millimetres in gauge diameter and ten‐millimetres in grip diameter, are usually taken from the rail head sample. When there is considerable variation of material properties over the cross-section it becomes likely that localised properties of the rail material will be missed. In another case from the literature, disks 47 mm in diameter for a twin-disk rolling contact test machine were obtained directly from the rail sample and used to validate ratcheting and rolling contact fatigue wear models. The question arises: How accurate are such tests, especially when large material property gradients exist? In this research paper, the effects of rail sampling location on the ratcheting behaviour of AS1085.1 rail steel were investigated using rectangular-shaped specimens obtained at four different depths to observe their respective cyclic plasticity behaviour. The microstructural features of the test coupons were also analysed, especially the pearlite inter-lamellar spacing which showed strong correlation with both hardness and cyclic plasticity behaviour of the material. This work ultimately provides new data and testing methodology to aid the selection of valid parameters for material constitutive models to better understand rail surface ratcheting and wear.

Effect of matrix cracking and material uncertainty on composite plates

A laminated composite plate model based on first order shear deformation theory is implemented using the finite element method.Matrix cracks are introduced into the finite element model by considering changes in the A, B and D matrices of composites. The effects of different boundary conditions, laminate types and ply angles on the behavior of composite plates with matrix cracks are studied.Finally, the effect of material property uncertainty, which is important for composite material on the composite plate, is investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. Probabilistic estimates of damage detection reliability in composite plates are made for static and dynamic measurements. It is found that the effect of uncertainty must be considered for accurate damage detection in composite structures. The estimates of variance obtained for observable system properties due to uncertainty can be used for developing more robust damage detection algorithms. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wear of metals-influence of some primary material properties

Specific wear rates of a range of metals and alloys upon dry sliding are compiled together to discern the influence of material properties on wear. No systematic influence of bulk hardness was found. Following our previous work on the influence of power dissipative capacity of metals on wear, we explore the influence of thermal diffusivity on wear of these metals.

Material uncertainty effect on vibration control of smart composite plate using polynomial chaos expansion

Polynomial Chaos Expansion with Latin Hypercube sampling is used to study the effect of material uncertainty on vibration control of a smart composite plate with piezoelectric sensors/actuators. Composite material properties and piezoelectric coefficients are considered as independent and normally distributed random variables. Numerical results show substantial variation in structural dynamic response due to material uncertainty of active vibration control system. This change in response due to material uncertainty can be compensated by actively tuning the feedback control system. Numerical results also show variation in dispersion of dynamic characteristics and control parameters with respect to ply angle and stacking sequence.

Material properties and tribological performance of rf-PECVD deposited DLC coatings

Diamond-like carbon (DLC) coatings were deposited on to silicon, glass and metal substrates, using an rf-plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition (rf-PECVD) process. The resultant film properties were evaluated in respect of material and interfacial property control, based on bias voltage variation and the introduction of inert (He and Ar) and reactive (N2) diluting gases in a CH4 plasma. The analysis techniques used to assess the material properties of the films included AFM, EELS, RBS/ERDA, spectroscopic, electrical, stress, microhardness, and adhesion. These were correlated to the tribological performance of the coatings using wear measurements. The most important observation is that He dilution (>90%) promotes enhanced adhesion with respect to all substrate material studies. Coatings typically exhibit a microhardness of the order of 10-20 GPa in films 0.1of fricton <0.1 and surface RMS roughness as low as 2Å. The results are discussed with respect to surface pre-treatment, ion surface bombardment, interfacial reactivity and changes in plasma gas breakdown processes. | Diamond-like carbon (DLC) coatings were deposited on to silicon, glass and metal substrates, using an rf-plasma enhanced chemical vapour deposition (rf-PECVD) process. The resultant film properties were evaluated in respect of material and interfacial property control, based on bias voltage variation and the introduction of inert (He and Ar) and reactive (N2) diluting gases in a CH4 plasma. The analysis techniques used to assess the material properties of the films included AFM, EELS, RBS/ERDA, spectroscopic, electrical, stress, microhardness, and adhesion. These were correlated to the tribological performance of the coatings using wear measurements. The most important observation is that He dilution (>90%) promotes enhanced adhesion with respect to all substrate materials studied. Coatings typically exhibit a microhardness of the order of 10-20 GPa in films 0.1 < d < 2 μm thick, with associated electrical resistivity in the range 108 < ρ < 1012 Ω·cm, coefficient of friction <0.1 and surface RMS roughness as low as 2 A. The results are discussed with respect to surface pre-treatment, ion surface bombardment, interfacial reactivity and changes in plasma gas breakdown processes.

Torsional impact response of a penny-shaped interface crack in bonded materials with a graded material interlayer

In this paper, the dynamic response of a penny-shaped interface crack in bonded dissimilar homogeneous half-spaces is studied. It is assumed that the two materials are bonded together with such a inhomogeneous interlayer that makes the elastic modulus in the direction perpendicular to the crack surface is continuous throughout the space. The crack surfaces art assumed to be subjected to torsional impact loading. Laplace and Hankel integral transforms are applied combining with a dislocation density,function to reduce the mixed boundary value problem into a singular integral equation with a generalized Cauchy kernel in Laplace domain. By solving the singular integral equation numerically, and using a numerical Laplace inversion technique, the dynamic stress intensity factors art obtained. The influences of material properties and interlayer thickness on the dynamic stress intensity factor are investigated.