First-and second-best allocations under economic and environmental uncertainty

This paper uses a micro-founded DSGE model to compare second-best optimal environmental policy and the resulting allocation to first-best allocation. The focus is on the source and size of uncertainty, and how this affects optimal choices and the inferiority of second best vis-à-vis first best.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Self-Fulfilling Price Cycles

This paper presents a model of a self-fulfilling price cycle in an asset market. Price oscillates deterministically even though the underlying environment is stationary. The mechanism that we uncover is driven by endogenous variation in the investment horizons of the different market participants, informed and uninformed. On even days, the price is high; on odd days it is low. On even days, informed traders are willing to jettison their good assets, knowing that they can buy them back the next day, when the price is low. The anticipated drop in price more than offsets any potential loss in dividend. Because of these asset sales, the informed build up their cash holdings. Understanding that the market is flooded with good assets, the uninformed traders are willing to pay a high price. But their investment horizon is longer than that of the informed traders: their intention is to hold the assets they purchase, not to resell. On odd days, the price is low because the uninformed recognise that the informed are using their cash holdings to cherry-pick good assets from the market. Now the uninformed, like the informed, are investing short-term. Rather than buy-and-hold as they do with assets purchased on even days, on odd days the uninformed are buying to sell. Notice that, at the root of the model, there lies a credit constraint. Although the informed are flush with cash on odd days, they are not deep pockets. On each cherry that they pick out of the market, they earn a high return: buying cheap, selling dear. However they don't have enough cash to strip the market of cherries and thereby bid the price up.

Competing for Attention: Is the Showiest also the Best?

We introduce attention games. Alternatives ranked by quality (producers, politicians, sexual partners...) desire to be chosen and compete for the imperfect attention of a chooser by investing in their own salience. We prove that if alternatives can control the attention they get, then ”the showiest is the best”: the equilibrium ordering of salience (weakly) reproduces the quality ranking and the best alternative is the one that gets picked most often. This result also holds under more general conditions. However, if those conditions fail, then even the worst alternative can be picked most often.

Palafrugell: un viatge pel seu clima

Treball de recerca realitzat per dos alumnes d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí­fic del Jovent l'any 2009. El treball pretén reconstruir part de la història climàtica de Palafrugell, tractar els fenòmens meteorològics més rellevants de les darreres dècades i mostrar què és realment el canvi climàtic i com podria afectar en el futur a Palafrugell. A partir de dades meteorològiques recollides en llibres, quaderns, fulls d'observatoris meteorològics, així com també a través d'entrevistes realitzades a experts en el tema, i amb anàlisis comparatius de diferents èpoques climàtiques, es mostra l'extensa història climàtica que amaga Palafrugell, els diferents períodes climàtics, i els efectes de l'escalfament global i les seves conseqüències. Els autors intenten d'aquesta manera no tan sols donar a conèixer el clima del municipi, sinó també, transmetre una definició que s'ajusti millor al significat de canvi climàtic.

Los sistemas participativos en las políticas de gestión de RSU: ejemplos de best-practices y el caso español

En el presente estudio se analizan los sistemas de gestión de RSU de Alemania, Noruega y California, considerados best-practices, desde la perspectiva de la creación de las políticas que los han hecho posibles. De este análisis se destacan como elementos importantes el liderazgo institucional, los acuerdos con la industria y el debate social. Posteriormente se analiza el caso de España y de Cataluña, comparándolo con los casos destacados y los elementos seleccionados. En este análisis se sigue la evolución de su legislación, planes y programas y se consideran los elementos que definen el panorama actual. Finalmente, siguiendo las recomendaciones de diversos autores y la voluntad del actual programa catalán, se plantea un sistema participativo para la elaboración de estas políticas.

Best practice in the management of mild-to-moderately active ulcerative colitis and achieving maintenance of remission using mesalazine.

Optimizing treatment goals in ulcerative colitis requires recognizing the needs of patients. It is increasingly recognized that adapting treatment strategies aligned with patient needs can improve patient compliance and consequently minimize relapse rates. Tailoring of treatment strategies can improve not only patient quality of life, and decrease the number harmed by adverse events from more potent drugs, but can also save valuable healthcare costs by avoiding high-cost treatment interventions associated with acute ulcerative colitis. This review will consider several elements of mesalazine management from the patient perspective based on a range of clinical and patient-focused evidence. By highlighting patient preferences in disease management it is envisaged that this review will aid physicians to optimize treatment decisions with the different mesalazine preparations available.

A sure house studies on the dynastic promise to David in the books of Samuel

The dissertation studies the texts mentioning or alluding to the dynastic promise to David in the books of Samuel; in the concluding further perspectives it also overviews the occurrences of the promise in the books of Kings; in the appendix, it comments on the "Law of the King" in Deut 17,14-20, the last verse of which may contain an allusion to the Davidic promise. The study engages with recent discussion on the history of the text of 2 Sam 7. In a detailed textual commentary, it treats with all the differences between the main textual witnesses of the chapter, and apart from the evaluation of the individual variants, it attempts to answer the question whether the differences are due exclusively to the process of transmission, or they are of literary character. Special attention is paid to the value of 1 Chr 17 for the reconstruction of the oldest text of 2 Sam 7; the author hopes that the conclusions of this part of the dissertation may prove to be of some importance for a more general study of the reception of Samuel in Chronicles. The subsequent literary analysis of 2 Sam 7 and the other passages referring to the dynastic promise to David leads to two alternative datings of Nathan's oracle and consequently two alternative redactional hypotheses trying to give account of the emergence of the examined passages. In the concluding perspectives, the function of the promise in Samuel is compared with the occurrences of the motif in Kings; this comparison leads to tentative conclusions concerning the development of the relation of the two books.

Best Practice Guidance on Joint Working between the HSC and the Pharmaceutical Industry and other relevant organisations (PDF 260KB)

HSS (GEN) 1) 1/95 update. It is intended to replace the guidance previously provided by former HSSBs and Trusts to assist employers and staff in maintaining strict ethical standards in the conduct of HSC business, in this instance, with the pharmaceutical industry

A Policy to Make Best Use of Resources in Plastic Surgery and Related Specialties (PDF 178 KB)

The purpose of this policy is to introduce a transparent approach to making best use of resources in plastic surgery and related specialties. It was finalised after a formal Public Consultation that included distribution of the Consultation Document to a range of organisations and individuals, meetings with Board representatives as requested and press releases in local and regional media outlets. All responses to the Consultation were considered carefully in developing this final policy. åÊ åÊ

Best Practice Guidance for Supplementary Prescribing by Nurses Within the HPSS in Northern Ireland (PDF 270 KB)

Provides clear information on the practical implementation of supplementary prescribing.

Care At Its Best

Care At Its Best