Essays in behavioral economics

In this work we conduct an experimental analysis on different behavioral models of economic choice. In particular, we analyze the role of overconfidence in shaping the beliefs of economics agents about the future path of their consumption or investment. We discuss the relevance of this bias in expectation formation both from a static and from a dynamic point of view and we analyze the effect of possible interventions aimed to achieve some policy goals. The methodology we follow is both theoretical and empirical. In particular, we make large use of controlled economic field experiments in order to test the predictions of the theoretical models we propose. In the second part of the thesis we discuss the role of cognition and personality in affecting economic preferences and choices. In this way we make a bridge between established psychological research and novel findings in economics. Finally, we conduct a field study on the role of incentives on education. We design different incentive schemes and we test, on randomized groups of students, their effectiveness in improving academic performance.

An interdisciplinary analysis of obesity: theory and empirical evidence

The dissertation is structured in three parts. The first part compares US and EU agricultural policies since the end of WWII. There is not enough evidence for claiming that agricultural support has a negative impact on obesity trends. I discuss the possibility of an exchange in best practices to fight obesity. There are relevant economic, societal and legal differences between the US and the EU. However, partnerships against obesity are welcomed. The second part presents a socio-ecological model of the determinants of obesity. I employ an interdisciplinary model because it captures the simultaneous influence of several variables. Obesity is an interaction of pre-birth, primary and secondary socialization factors. To test the significance of each factor, I use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health. I compare the average body mass index across different populations. Differences in means are statistically significant. In the last part I use the National Survey of Children Health. I analyze the effect that family characteristics, built environment, cultural norms and individual factors have on the body mass index (BMI). I use Ordered Probit models and I calculate the marginal effects. I use State and ethnicity fixed effects to control for unobserved heterogeneity. I find that southern US States tend have on average a higher probability of being obese. On the ethnicity side, White Americans have a lower BMI respect to Black Americans, Hispanics and American Indians Native Islanders; being Asian is associated with a lower probability of being obese. In neighborhoods where trust level and safety perception are higher, children are less overweight and obese. Similar results are shown for higher level of parental income and education. Breastfeeding has a negative impact. Higher values of measures of behavioral disorders have a positive and significant impact on obesity, as predicted by the theory.

International Agricultural Trade under Regulatory Asymmetry: An Economic Analysis of SME Export Behavior

Over the last three decades, international agricultural trade has grown significantly. Technological advances in transportation logistics and storage have created opportunities to ship anything almost anywhere. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements have also opened new pathways to an increasingly global market place. Yet, international agricultural trade is often constrained by differences in regulatory regimes. The impact of “regulatory asymmetry” is particularly acute for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that lack resources and expertise to successfully operate in markets that have substantially different regulatory structures. As governments seek to encourage the development of SMEs, policy makers often confront the critical question of what ultimately motivates SME export behavior. Specifically, there is considerable interest in understanding how SMEs confront the challenges of regulatory asymmetry. Neoclassical models of the firm generally emphasize expected profit maximization under uncertainty, however these approaches do not adequately explain the entrepreneurial decision under regulatory asymmetry. Behavioral theories of the firm offer a far richer understanding of decision making by taking into account aspirations and adaptive performance in risky environments. This paper develops an analytical framework for decision making of a single agent. Considering risk, uncertainty and opportunity cost, the analysis focuses on the export behavior response of an SME in a situation of regulatory asymmetry. Drawing on the experience of fruit processor in Muzaffarpur, India, who must consider different regulatory environments when shipping fruit treated with sulfur dioxide, the study dissects the firm-level decision using @Risk, a Monte Carlo computational tool.

Social Welfare and Behavioral Public Policies

In this work I discuss several key aspects of welfare economics and policy analysis and I propose two original contributions to the growing field of behavioral public policymaking. After providing a historical perspective of welfare economics and an overview of policy analysis processes in the introductory chapter, in chapter 2 I discuss a debated issue of policymaking, the choice of the social welfare function. I contribute to this debate by proposing an original methodological contribution based on the analysis of the quantitative relationship among different social welfare functional forms commonly used by policy analysts. In chapter 3 I then discuss a behavioral policy to contrast indirect tax evasion based on the use of lotteries. I show that the predictions of my model based on non-expected utility are consistent with observed, and so far unexplained, empirical evidence of the policy success. Finally, in chapter 4 I investigate by mean of a laboratory experiment the effects of social influence on the individual likelihood to engage in altruistic punishment. I show that bystanders’ decision to engage in punishment is influenced by the punishment behavior of their peers and I suggest ways to enact behavioral policies that exploit this finding.

Deadlock analysis of asynchronous sequential processes

In this thesis we present ad study an object-oriented language, characterized by two different types of objects, passive and active objects, of which we define the operational syntax and semantics. For this language we also define the type system, that will be used for the type checking and for the extraction of behavioral types, which are an abstract description of the behavior of the methods, used in deadlock analysis. Programs can manifest deadlock due to the errors of the programmer. To statically identify possible unintended behaviors we studied and implemented a technique for the analysis of deadlock based on behavioral types.

Association Between Type D Personality and Prognosis in Patients with Cardiovascular Diseases: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Since 1995, the association of type D personality and mortality in patients with cardiovascular diseases has been increasingly investigated.

Outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: latent class analysis

An in-depth understanding of the different groups that make up the HIV-infected population should inform prevention and care. Using latent class analysis (LCA) we identified seven groups with similar socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics at enrolment in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: older gay men, younger gay men, older heterosexual men, injection drug users, single migrants, migrant women in partnerships and heterosexual men and women. Outcomes of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) were analyzed in 1,633 patients starting ART. Compared to older gay men, the probability of a virologic response to ART was reduced in single migrants, in older heterosexual men and in IDUs. Loss to follow-up was higher in single migrants and IDUs, and mortality was increased in older heterosexual men and IDUs. Socio-behavioral groups identified by LCA allow insights above what can be gleaned from traditional transmission groups, and may identify patients who could benefit from targeted interventions.

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Relations Among Stress, Depressive Symptoms, Leisure Satisfaction, and Endothelial Function in Caregivers

Stress and depressive symptoms have been associated with impaired endothelial function as measured by brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD), possibly through repeated and heightened activation of the sympathetic nervous system. Behavioral correlates of depression, such as satisfaction with leisure activities (i.e., leisure satisfaction), may also be associated with endothelial function via their association with depressive symptoms. This study examined the longitudinal associations between stress, depressive symptoms, leisure satisfaction, and endothelial function as measured by FMD.

Behavioral Assessment of Core ADHD Symptoms Using the QbTest

Objective: Hyperactivity, one of the core symptoms of ADHD, has been mostly neglected in neuropsychological assessment of childhood ADHD. The neuropsychological Quantified behavior Test (QbTest) separately assesses all three core symptoms of ADHD on a behavioral level. Factor structure of the QbTest and its concurrent and discriminant validity are presented. Method: An exploratory factor analysis (n = 828 children) was performed. In a second sample (n = 102 children) a Multi-Trait-Multi-Method (MTMM) approach was used for validity analyses. Results: A three factorial model explained 76 % of the total variance, with the resulting QbTest factors significantly influenced by age and gender. The MTMM approach yielded promising results for discriminant, yet inconsistent findings for concurrent validity between the QbTest and another attention test as well as for Conners' Parent and Teacher Rating Scales. Conclusion: Results indicate that the QbTest may be helpful for the behavioral assessment of childhood ADHD, yet further studies on its psychometric quality and clinical utility are needed. (J. of Att. Dis. 2012; XX(X) 1-XX).

Sex Differences in Semantic Processing: Event-Related Brain Potentials Distinguish between Lower and Higher Order Semantic Analysis during Word Reading

Behavioral studies suggest that women and men differ in the strategic elaboration of verbally encoded information especially in the absence of external task demand. However, measuring such covert processing requires other than behavioral data. The present study used event-related potentials to compare sexes in lower and higher order semantic processing during the passive reading of semantically related and unrelated word pairs. Women and men showed the same early context effect in the P1-N1 transition period. This finding indicates that the initial lexical-semantic access is similar in men and women. In contrast, sexes differed in higher order semantic processing. Women showed an earlier and longer lasting context effect in the N400 accompanied by larger signal strength in temporal networks similarly recruited by men and women. The results suggest that women spontaneously conduct a deeper semantic analysis. This leads to faster processing of related words in the active neural networks as reflected in a shorter stability of the N400 map in women. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that there is a selective sex difference in the controlled semantic analysis during passive word reading that is not reflected in different functional organization but in the depth of processing.

Dimensions of impulsive behavior in adolescents: laboratory behavioral assessments

Impulsivity is a multifaceted construct that defines a range of maladaptive behavioral styles. The present research aimed to identify different dimensions of impulsive behavior in adolescents from a battery of laboratory behavioral assessments. In one analysis, correlations were examined between two self report and seven laboratory behavioral measures of impulsivity. The correlation between the two self report measures was high compared to correlations between the self report and laboratory behavioral measures. In a second analysis, a principal components analysis was performed with just the laboratory behavioral measures. Three behavioral dimensions were identified -- "impulsive decision-making", "impulsive inattention", and "impulsive disinhibition". These dimensions were further evaluated using the same sample with a confirmatory factor analysis, which did support the hypothesis that these are significant and independent dimensions of impulsivity. This research indicates there are at least three separate subtypes of impulsive behavior when using laboratory behavioral assessments with adolescent participants.

Gait analysis in normal and spinal contused mice using the TreadScan system

Advances in spinal cord injury (SCI) research are dependent on quality animal models, which in turn rely on sensitive outcome measures able to detect functional differences in animals following injury. To date, most measurements of dysfunction following SCI rely either on the subjective rating of observers or the slow throughput of manual gait assessment. The present study compares the gait of normal and contusion-injured mice using the TreadScan system. TreadScan utilizes a transparent treadmill belt and a high-speed camera to capture the footprints of animals and automatically analyze gait characteristics. Adult female C57Bl/6 mice were introduced to the treadmill prior to receiving either a standardized mild, moderate, or sham contusion spinal cord injury. TreadScan gait analyses were performed weekly for 10 weeks and compared with scores on the Basso Mouse Scale (BMS). Results indicate that this software successfully differentiates sham animals from injured animals on a number of gait characteristics, including hindlimb swing time, stride length, toe spread, and track width. Differences were found between mild and moderate contusion injuries, indicating a high degree of sensitivity within the system. Rear track width, a measure of the animal's hindlimb base of support, correlated strongly both with spared white matter percentage and with terminal BMS. TreadScan allows for an objective and rapid behavioral assessment of locomotor function following mild-moderate contusive SCI, where the majority of mice still exhibit hindlimb weight support and plantar paw placement during stepping.

Taking an Object-Centric View on Dynamic Information with Object Flow Analysis

A large body of research analyzes the runtime execution of a system to extract abstract behavioral views. Those approaches primarily analyze control flow by tracing method execution events or they analyze object graphs of heap snapshots. However, they do not capture how objects are passed through the system at runtime. We refer to the exchange of objects as the object flow, and we claim that object flow is necessary to analyze if we are to understand the runtime of an object-oriented application. We propose and detail Object Flow Analysis, a novel dynamic analysis technique that takes this new information into account. To evaluate its usefulness, we present a visual approach that allows a developer to study classes and components in terms of how they exchange objects at runtime. We illustrate our approach on three case studies.