Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of geophysical data for the purpose of estimating the hydraulic properties of the unsaturated zone

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) has the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties of the vadose zone because of their strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for effective estimation of subsurface van-Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. An important and still unresolved issue, however, is how to best integrate GPR data into a stochastic inversion in order to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties, thus improving hydrological predictions. Recognizing the importance of this issue, the aim of the research presented in this thesis was to first introduce a fully Bayesian inversion called Markov-chain-Monte-carlo (MCMC) strategy to perform the stochastic inversion of steady-state GPR data to estimate the VGM parameters and their uncertainties. Within this study, the choice of the prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data was also investigated. Analysis of both synthetic and field data collected at the Eggborough (UK) site indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when these data are combined with a realistic, informative prior. A subsequent study explore in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically to what extent time-lapse ZOP GPR data, collected during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arrenaes field site (Denmark), can help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties using the MCMC inversion strategy. The findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions. In turn, this significantly improves knowledge of the hydraulic properties, which are required to predict hydraulic behaviour. Finally, another aspect that needed to be addressed involved the comparison of time-lapse GPR data collected under different infiltration conditions (i.e., natural loading and forced infiltration conditions) to estimate the VGM parameters using the MCMC inversion strategy. The results show that for the synthetic example, considering data collected during a forced infiltration test helps to better refine soil hydraulic properties compared to data collected under natural infiltration conditions. When investigating data collected at the Arrenaes field site, further complications arised due to model error and showed the importance of also including a rigorous analysis of the propagation of model error with time and depth when considering time-lapse data. Although the efforts in this thesis were focused on GPR data, the corresponding findings are likely to have general applicability to other types of geophysical data and field environments. Moreover, the obtained results allow to have confidence for future developments in integration of geophysical data with stochastic inversions to improve the characterization of the unsaturated zone but also reveal important issues linked with stochastic inversions, namely model errors, that should definitely be addressed in future research.

Phylogeny of shrews (Soricidae) : taxonomic and biogeographic implications

Résumé Les Soricidae sont l'une des plus grandes familles de mammifères avec plus de 300 espèces décrites. Elle a été récemment divisée en trois sous-familles, les Soricidae, qui sont distribuées dans la région Holarctique, les Crocidurinae en Afrique et en Eurasie, et les Myosoricinae en Afrique. La diversité spécifique de cette famille a conduit à des interprétations taxonomiques multiples, qui sont à l'origine de polémiques entre spécialistes, et même les premiers résultats moléculaires ont été fortement contradictoires. Le but de cette thèse est donc d'appliquer des meilleures techniques sur des échantillons mieux ciblés, afin de résoudre les contradictions taxonomiques et comprendre l'histoire de cette famille. Par le biais de marqueurs génétiques mitochondriaux et nucléaires, j'ai étudié: (i) Les relations taxonomiques à différent niveaux hiérarchiques au sein des Soricidae, c'est-à dire, entre les sous-familles, tribus, et genres, ainsi qu'au sein de deux complexes d'espèces largement distribués, et d'une espèce européenne, le but étant d'établir la congruence entre les données génétiques et les interprétations morphologiques classiques. (ii) Les relations biogéographiques, soit l'origine potentielle des différentes sous-familles, tribus, et genres, le nombre d'échanges intercontinentaux, ainsi que la structure phylogéographique à un niveau (péri)-spécifique, afin d'établir l'histoire de la diversification de cette famille. Les analyses combinées d'ADN mitochondrial et nucléaire ont montré un rapport clair entre les taxa à un niveau taxonomique élevé, mettant en évidence les rapports entre les sous-familles, les tribus, et les genres. Bien que Myosorex constitue un groupe monophylétique distinct, sa définition en tant que sous-famille séparée ne peut pas être reconnue. Ainsi, nous proposons d'attribuer un niveau de tribu pour ce clade (inclus dans les Crocidurinae). Nous avons également montré l'inclusion du genre Anourosorex dans les Soricinae et non en position basale dans les Soricidae. Au sein des Crocidurinae, Suncus s'est révélé être paraphylétique, et le genre Diplomesodon devrait être considéré d'un point de vue génétique comme invalide, puisque il se trouve au sein du clade du genre Crocidura. À un niveau taxonomique plus bas, nous avons montré la monophylie de deux complexes d'espèces largement distribués, le groupe de C. suaveolens et de C. olivieri. Néanmoins à l'intérieur de ceux-ci, des différences majeures avec la classification morphologique se sont révélées. Par exemples, C. sibirica n'est pas une espèce valide, les analyses de phylogénie moléculaire ne montrant pas de variations génétiques entre celle-ci et un échantillon de la localité type de C. suaveolens. D'un point de vue biogéographique, les fluctuations climatiques et les activités tectoniques des 20 derniers millions d'années ont fortement influencé la diversité actuelle des Soricidae. À un niveau taxonomique élevé, l'apparition de connexions de terre temporaires entre le Vieux et le Nouveau Monde au Miocène moyen ont mené à plusieurs colonisations indépendantes de l'Amérique par les Soricinae. Celles-ci ónt conduit à une diversification d'une tribu (Notiosoricini), ainsi que de genres (par ex: Cryptotis, Blarina) et d'un sous-genre (Otisorex) endémique au Néarctique. Dans le Vieux Monde, les barrières entre l'Afrique et Eurasie étaient plus perméables, menant à plusieurs échanges bidirectionnels de Crocidurinae. La diversification des clades principaux s'est produite au Miocène, certains clades étant endémiques d'Afrique ou d'Eurasie, tandis que d'autres se sont diversifiés à travers le Vieux Monde. À un niveau spécifique ou péri-spécifique, la fluctuation climatique du Pliocène et les glaciations du Pléistocène ont fortement divisé les populations dans tout le Paléarctique, menant à des entités génétiques distinctes. En Europe, les populations du groupe de C. suaveolens ont été divisées en une lignée Sud-Ouest et une Sud-Est, alors qu'au Proche-Orient et au Moyen-Orient, la diversité de clades est plus importante. En conclusion, mes études ont révélé que du Miocène à nos jours, la diversification des Soricidae a été provoquée par la colonisation de nouveaux habitats (dispersion), ainsi que par l'isolement des populations par diverses barrières (vicariance). Abstract The Soricidae is one of the largest mammalian families with more than 300 species described. It has been recently divided into three subfamilies, the Soricinae, which are distributed in the Holartic region, the Crocidurinae in Africa and Eurasia, and the Myosoricinae in Africa. The specific diversity of this family have led to multiple systematic interpretations and controversies between authors. Fortunately, today, cytotaxonomic, allozymic and molecular studies have permitted to clarify some uncertainties. Nevertheless, the Soricidae remains still poorly known. In this thesis, we aim at understanding with the use of mitochondrial and nuclear markers: (i) the taxonomic relationships at different hierarchical levels within Soricidae, i.e., between the subfamilies, tribes, and genera, as well as within two largely distributed species complexes, and within a European species, the goal being to establish congruence between the genetic data and traditional morphological interpretations; (ii) the biogeographic relationships, especially the potential origin of the different subfamilies, tribes, and genera, the number of transcontinental exchanges, as well as the phylogeographic structure at a (peri)-specific level, in order to establish the history of the genetic diversification of this family. The combined analyses of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA highlight for the first time a clear relationship between taxa at a high taxonomical level, permitting to distinguish the relationships between subfamilies, tribes, and genera. Although Myosorex formed a distinct monophyletic group, its definition as a distinct sub-family cannot be advocated. Thus, we propose to attribute a tribe level for this Glade (included within the Crocidurinae). Additionally, this combination of genes pleads in favour of the inclusion of the genus Anourosorex within the Soricinae and not in a basal position within the Soricidae. Within the Crocidurinae, Suncus appeared to be paraphyletic, and Diplomesodon should be considered from a genetic point of view as invalid, and is presently considered as Crocidura. At a lower taxonomic level, we showed the monophyly of two widely distributed species complexes, the C. suaveolens group and the C. olivieri group. Nevertheless within those, we showed major differences compared to morphological classification. For examples, C. sibirica revealed to not be a valid species, the molecular phylogenetic analyses failed to evidence genetical variations between it and samples of the type locality of C. suaveolens. In a biogeographic point of view, the climatic fluctuations and the tectonic plate activities of the last 20 Myr have strongly influenced the actual diversity of the family. At a high taxonomic level, the successive land bridge connections between the Old and the New World, which occurred during the Middle Miocene, have led to several independent colonisations of America by Soricinae, and a subsequent diversification of endemic Nearctic's tribe (Notiosoricini), genera (e.g. Cryptotis, Blaring) and sub-genus (Otisorex) within the Soricinae. Within the Old World, the barriers between Africa and Eurasia were more permeable, leading to several bidirectional exchanges within the Crocidurinae. The diversification of major clades occurred through the Miocene, some clades being endemic to Africa or Eurasia, whereas others diversified through the Old World. At a species level or a peri-specific level, the Pliocene climatic fluctuation and the Pleistocene glaciations have strongly divided the populations throughout the Palaearctic, leading to well defined genetic entities. In Europe, populations of the C. suaveolens group were split in a classical south-western and south-eastern lineage. In contrast, the Near East and the Middle East reveal many differentiated clades. In conclusion, our studies revealed that, from the Miocene to present, the diversification and speciation events within the Soricidae were caused by natural colonisation of new habitats (dispersion) and isolation of populations by various barriers (vicariance).

Using a Bayesian method to assign individuals to karyotypic taxa in shrew hybrid zones.

Individuals sampled in hybrid zones are usually analysed according to their sampling locality, morphology, behaviour or karyotype. But the increasing availability of genetic information more and more favours its use for individual sorting purposes and numerous assignment methods based on the genetic composition of individuals have been developed. The shrews of the Sorex araneus group offer good opportunities to test the genetic assignment on individuals identified by their karyotype. Here we explored the potential and efficiency of a Bayesian assignment method combined or not with a reference dataset to study admixture and individual assignment in the difficult context of two hybrid zones between karyotypic species of the Sorex araneus group. As a whole, we assigned more than 80% of the individuals to their respective karyotypic categories (i.e. 'pure' species or hybrids). This assignment level is comparable to what was obtained for the same species away from hybrid zones. Additionally, we showed that the assignment result for several individuals was strongly affected by the inclusion or not of a reference dataset. This highlights the importance of such comparisons when analysing hybrid zones. Finally, differences between the admixture levels detected in both hybrid zones support the hypothesis of an impact of chromosomal rearrangements on gene flow.

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part II) : Bayesian parameter estimation for experimental count data.

Part I of this series of articles focused on the construction of graphical probabilistic inference procedures, at various levels of detail, for assessing the evidential value of gunshot residue (GSR) particle evidence. The proposed models - in the form of Bayesian networks - address the issues of background presence of GSR particles, analytical performance (i.e., the efficiency of evidence searching and analysis procedures) and contamination. The use and practical implementation of Bayesian networks for case pre-assessment is also discussed. This paper, Part II, concentrates on Bayesian parameter estimation. This topic complements Part I in that it offers means for producing estimates useable for the numerical specification of the proposed probabilistic graphical models. Bayesian estimation procedures are given a primary focus of attention because they allow the scientist to combine (his/her) prior knowledge about the problem of interest with newly acquired experimental data. The present paper also considers further topics such as the sensitivity of the likelihood ratio due to uncertainty in parameters and the study of likelihood ratio values obtained for members of particular populations (e.g., individuals with or without exposure to GSR).

Molecular phylogeny and evolution of Sorex shrews (Soricidae: insectivora) inferred from mitochondrial DNA sequence data.

Shrews of the genus Sorex are characterized by a Holarctic distribution, and relationships among extant taxa have never been fully resolved. Phylogenies have been proposed based on morphological, karyological, and biochemical comparisons, but these analyses often produced controversial and contradictory results. Phylogenetic analyses of partial mitochondrial cytochrome b gene sequences (1011 bp) were used to examine the relationships among 27 Sorex species. The molecular data suggest that Sorex comprises two major monophyletic lineages, one restricted mostly to the New World and one with a primarily Palearctic distribution. Furthermore, several sister-species relationships are revealed by the analysis. Based on the split between the Soricinae and Crocidurinae subfamilies, we used a 95% confidence interval for both the calibration of a molecular clock and the subsequent calculation of major diversification events within the genus Sorex. Our analysis does not support an unambiguous acceleration of the molecular clock in shrews, the estimated rate being similar to other estimates of mammalian mitochondrial clocks. In addition, the data presented here indicate that estimates from the fossil record greatly underestimate divergence dates among Sorex taxa.

An evaluation of new parsimony-based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim  Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location  World-wide.Methods  Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results  Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions  By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.

Bayesian networks for evaluating forensic DNA profiling evidence: a review and guide to literature

Almost 30 years ago, Bayesian networks (BNs) were developed in the field of artificial intelligence as a framework that should assist researchers and practitioners in applying the theory of probability to inference problems of more substantive size and, thus, to more realistic and practical problems. Since the late 1980s, Bayesian networks have also attracted researchers in forensic science and this tendency has considerably intensified throughout the last decade. This review article provides an overview of the scientific literature that describes research on Bayesian networks as a tool that can be used to study, develop and implement probabilistic procedures for evaluating the probative value of particular items of scientific evidence in forensic science. Primary attention is drawn here to evaluative issues that pertain to forensic DNA profiling evidence because this is one of the main categories of evidence whose assessment has been studied through Bayesian networks. The scope of topics is large and includes almost any aspect that relates to forensic DNA profiling. Typical examples are inference of source (or, 'criminal identification'), relatedness testing, database searching and special trace evidence evaluation (such as mixed DNA stains or stains with low quantities of DNA). The perspective of the review presented here is not exclusively restricted to DNA evidence, but also includes relevant references and discussion on both, the concept of Bayesian networks as well as its general usage in legal sciences as one among several different graphical approaches to evidence evaluation.

Substantial advantage of a combined Bayesian and genotyping approach in testosterone doping tests.

Testosterone abuse is conventionally assessed by the urinary testosterone/epitestosterone (T/E) ratio, levels above 4.0 being considered suspicious. A deletion polymorphism in the gene coding for UGT2B17 is strongly associated with reduced testosterone glucuronide (TG) levels in urine. Many of the individuals devoid of the gene would not reach a T/E ratio of 4.0 after testosterone intake. Future test programs will most likely shift from population based- to individual-based T/E cut-off ratios using Bayesian inference. A longitudinal analysis is dependent on an individual's true negative baseline T/E ratio. The aim was to investigate whether it is possible to increase the sensitivity and specificity of the T/E test by addition of UGT2B17 genotype information in a Bayesian framework. A single intramuscular dose of 500mg testosterone enanthate was given to 55 healthy male volunteers with either two, one or no allele (ins/ins, ins/del or del/del) of the UGT2B17 gene. Urinary excretion of TG and the T/E ratio was measured during 15 days. The Bayesian analysis was conducted to calculate the individual T/E cut-off ratio. When adding the genotype information, the program returned lower individual cut-off ratios in all del/del subjects increasing the sensitivity of the test considerably. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to discriminate between a true negative baseline T/E value and a false negative one without knowledge of the UGT2B17 genotype. UGT2B17 genotype information is crucial, both to decide which initial cut-off ratio to use for an individual, and for increasing the sensitivity of the Bayesian analysis.

Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.

Estimating Bayesian decision problems with heterogeneous priors

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise andpreferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decisionmaking. In this paper we propose a new channel through which we can empirically identify expertise and preference parameters by using variation in decisionsover heterogeneous priors. Relative to existing estimation approaches, our \Prior-Based Identification" extends the possible environments which can be estimated,and also substantially improves the accuracy and precision of estimates in thoseenvironments which can be estimated using existing methods.

Further insights on the French WISC-IV factor structure through Bayesian structural equation modeling

The interpretation of the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-Fourth Edition (WISC-IV) is based on a 4-factor model, which is only partially compatible with the mainstream Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) model of intelligence measurement. The structure of cognitive batteries is frequently analyzed via exploratory factor analysis and/or confirmatory factor analysis. With classical confirmatory factor analysis, almost all crossloadings between latent variables and measures are fixed to zero in order to allow the model to be identified. However, inappropriate zero cross-loadings can contribute to poor model fit, distorted factors, and biased factor correlations; most important, they do not necessarily faithfully reflect theory. To deal with these methodological and theoretical limitations, we used a new statistical approach, Bayesian structural equation modeling (BSEM), among a sample of 249 French-speaking Swiss children (8-12 years). With BSEM, zero-fixed cross-loadings between latent variables and measures are replaced by approximate zeros, based on informative, small-variance priors. Results indicated that a direct hierarchical CHC-based model with 5 factors plus a general intelligence factor better represented the structure of the WISC-IV than did the 4-factor structure and the higher order models. Because a direct hierarchical CHC model was more adequate, it was concluded that the general factor should be considered as a breadth rather than a superordinate factor. Because it was possible for us to estimate the influence of each of the latent variables on the 15 subtest scores, BSEM allowed improvement of the understanding of the structure of intelligence tests and the clinical interpretation of the subtest scores.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Phylogeny of wasps of the genus Mischocyttarus de Saussure (Hymenoptera, Vespidae, Polistinae)

A phylogenetic analysis is presented of subgenera and species-groups of Mischocyttarus de Saussure, the largest genus of social wasps. The analysis is based on 62 morphological and nest architecture characters, coded for 71 terminals representing much of the taxonomic diversity within the genus, plus three outgroup terminals representing other polistine tribes. The main conclusions about phylogenetic relationships within the genus are based on parsimony analysis under implied weights. Monophyly of Mischocyttarus is confirmed as well as that of most of the previously recognized subgenera: Mischocyttarus s. str., Clypeopolybia, Monogynoecus, Scytokeraia, Phi, Kappa, Megacanthopus and Omega sensu Richards (1978). Haplometrobius as conceived by Richards (1978) is not a monophyletic taxon, but some of its species-groups are monophyletic. The groups of M.artifex and M.cerberus are raised to subgenus level, and a new concept of Haplometrobius restricts it to the group of M.iheringi (the type species of this subgenus) in the sense of this work. The concept of subgenus Omega is widened to include the species-groups of M.surinamensis and M.prominulus. Besides the new subgeneric classification presented, limits and diagnoses of all species-groups of the subgenera Phi and Haplometrobius sensu Richards (1978) are discussed, and a new key for all subgenera and species-groups of Mischocyttarus is also presented.