Inversion and assimilation methods with applications in geophysical remote sensing

Stratospheric ozone can be measured accurately using a limb scatter remote sensing technique at the UV-visible spectral region of solar light. The advantages of this technique includes a good vertical resolution and a good daytime coverage of the measurements. In addition to ozone, UV-visible limb scatter measurements contain information about NO2, NO3, OClO, BrO and aerosols. There are currently several satellite instruments continuously scanning the atmosphere and measuring the UVvisible region of the spectrum, e.g., the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS) launched on the Odin satellite in February 2001, and the Scanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) launched on Envisat in March 2002. Envisat also carries the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) instrument, which also measures limb-scattered sunlight under bright limb occultation conditions. These conditions occur during daytime occultation measurements. The global coverage of the satellite measurements is far better than any other ozone measurement technique, but still the measurements are sparse in the spatial domain. Measurements are also repeated relatively rarely over a certain area, and the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere changes dynamically. Assimilation methods are therefore needed in order to combine the information of the measurements with the atmospheric model. In recent years, the focus of assimilation algorithm research has turned towards filtering methods. The traditional Extended Kalman filter (EKF) method takes into account not only the uncertainty of the measurements, but also the uncertainty of the evolution model of the system. However, the computational cost of full blown EKF increases rapidly as the number of the model parameters increases. Therefore the EKF method cannot be applied directly to the stratospheric ozone assimilation problem. The work in this thesis is devoted to the development of inversion methods for satellite instruments and the development of assimilation methods used with atmospheric models.

Phase voltage control and filtering in a converter-fed single-phase customer-end system of the LVDC distribution network

In recent years, the network vulnerability to natural hazards has been noticed. Moreover, operating on the limits of the network transmission capabilities have resulted in major outages during the past decade. One of the reasons for operating on these limits is that the network has become outdated. Therefore, new technical solutions are studied that could provide more reliable and more energy efficient power distributionand also a better profitability for the network owner. It is the development and price of power electronics that have made the DC distribution an attractive alternative again. In this doctoral thesis, one type of a low-voltage DC distribution system is investigated. Morespecifically, it is studied which current technological solutions, used at the customer-end, could provide better power quality for the customer when compared with the current system. To study the effect of a DC network on the customer-end power quality, a bipolar DC network model is derived. The model can also be used to identify the supply parameters when the V/kW ratio is approximately known. Although the model provides knowledge of the average behavior, it is shown that the instantaneous DC voltage ripple should be limited. The guidelines to choose an appropriate capacitance value for the capacitor located at the input DC terminals of the customer-end are given. Also the structure of the customer-end is considered. A comparison between the most common solutions is made based on their cost, energy efficiency, and reliability. In the comparison, special attention is paid to the passive filtering solutions since the filter is considered a crucial element when the lifetime expenses are determined. It is found out that the filter topology most commonly used today, namely the LC filter, does not provide economical advantage over the hybrid filter structure. Finally, some of the typical control system solutions are introduced and their shortcomings are presented. As a solution to the customer-end voltage regulation problem, an observer-based control scheme is proposed. It is shown how different control system structures affect the performance. The performance meeting the requirements is achieved by using only one output measurement, when operating in a rigid network. Similar performance can be achieved in a weak grid by DC voltage measurement. An additional improvement can be achieved when an adaptive gain scheduling-based control is introduced. As a conclusion, the final power quality is determined by a sum of various factors, and the thesis provides the guidelines for designing the system that improves the power quality experienced by the customer.

Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Active inverter output filtering methods

Frequency converters are widely used in the industry to enable better controllability and efficiency of variable speed AC motor drives. Despite these advantages, certain challenges concerning the inverter and motor interfacing have been present for decades. As insulated gate bipolar transistors entered the market, the inverter output voltage transition rate significantly increased compared with their predecessors. Inverters operate based on pulse width modulation of the output voltage, and the steep voltage edge fed by the inverter produces a motor terminal overvoltage. The overvoltage causes extra stress to the motor insulation, which may lead to a prematuremotor failure. The overvoltage is not generated by the inverter alone, but also by the sum effect of the motor cable length and the impedance mismatch between the cable and the motor. Many solutions have been shown to limit the overvoltage, and the mainstream products focus on passive filters. This doctoral thesis studies an alternative methodology for motor overvoltage reduction. The focus is on minimization of the passive filter dimensions, physical and electrical, or better yet, on operation without any filter. This is achieved by additional inverter control and modulation. The studied methods are implemented on different inverter topologies, varying in nominal voltage and current.For two-level inverters, the studied method is termed active du/dt. It consists of a small output LC filter, which is controlled by an independent modulator. The overvoltage is limited by a reduced voltage transition rate. For multilevel inverters, an overvoltage mitigation method operating without a passive filter, called edge modulation, is implemented. The method uses the capability of the inverter to produce two switching operations in the same direction to cancel the oscillating voltages of opposite phases. For parallel inverters, two methods are studied. They are both intended for two-level inverters, but the first uses individual motor cables from each inverter while the other topology applies output inductors. The overvoltage is reduced by interleaving the switching operations to produce a similar oscillation accumulation as with the edge modulation. The implementation of these methods is discussed in detail, and the necessary modifications to the control system of the inverter are presented. Each method is experimentally verified by operating industrial frequency converters with the modified control. All the methods are found feasible, and they provide sufficient overvoltage protection. The limitations and challenges brought about by the methods are discussed.

Multidata inverse problems and Bayesian solution methods in astronomy

Statistical analyses of measurements that can be described by statistical models are of essence in astronomy and in scientific inquiry in general. The sensitivity of such analyses, modelling approaches, and the consequent predictions, is sometimes highly dependent on the exact techniques applied, and improvements therein can result in significantly better understanding of the observed system of interest. Particularly, optimising the sensitivity of statistical techniques in detecting the faint signatures of low-mass planets orbiting the nearby stars is, together with improvements in instrumentation, essential in estimating the properties of the population of such planets, and in the race to detect Earth-analogs, i.e. planets that could support liquid water and, perhaps, life on their surfaces. We review the developments in Bayesian statistical techniques applicable to detections planets orbiting nearby stars and astronomical data analysis problems in general. We also discuss these techniques and demonstrate their usefulness by using various examples and detailed descriptions of the respective mathematics involved. We demonstrate the practical aspects of Bayesian statistical techniques by describing several algorithms and numerical techniques, as well as theoretical constructions, in the estimation of model parameters and in hypothesis testing. We also apply these algorithms to Doppler measurements of nearby stars to show how they can be used in practice to obtain as much information from the noisy data as possible. Bayesian statistical techniques are powerful tools in analysing and interpreting noisy data and should be preferred in practice whenever computational limitations are not too restrictive.

On Bayesian predictive modeling : with applications on the analysis of chromatography data in forensic investigations

Med prediktion avses att man skattar det framtida värdet på en observerbar storhet. Kännetecknande för det bayesianska paradigmet är att osäkerhet gällande okända storheter uttrycks i form av sannolikheter. En bayesiansk prediktiv modell är således en sannolikhetsfördelning över de möjliga värden som en observerbar, men ännu inte observerad storhet kan anta. I de artiklar som ingår i avhandlingen utvecklas metoder, vilka bl.a. tillämpas i analys av kromatografiska data i brottsutredningar. Med undantag för den första artikeln, bygger samtliga metoder på bayesiansk prediktiv modellering. I artiklarna betraktas i huvudsak tre olika typer av problem relaterade till kromatografiska data: kvantifiering, parvis matchning och klustring. I den första artikeln utvecklas en icke-parametrisk modell för mätfel av kromatografiska analyser av alkoholhalt i blodet. I den andra artikeln utvecklas en prediktiv inferensmetod för jämförelse av två stickprov. Metoden tillämpas i den tredje artik eln för jämförelse av oljeprover i syfte att kunna identifiera den förorenande källan i samband med oljeutsläpp. I den fjärde artikeln härleds en prediktiv modell för klustring av data av blandad diskret och kontinuerlig typ, vilken bl.a. tillämpas i klassificering av amfetaminprover med avseende på produktionsomgångar.

Power semiconductor nonlinearities in active du/dt output filtering

This doctoral thesis introduces an improved control principle for active du/dt output filtering in variable-speed AC drives, together with performance comparisons with previous filtering methods. The effects of power semiconductor nonlinearities on the output filtering performance are investigated. The nonlinearities include the timing deviation and the voltage pulse waveform distortion in the variable-speed AC drive output bridge. Active du/dt output filtering (ADUDT) is a method to mitigate motor overvoltages in variable-speed AC drives with long motor cables. It is a quite recent addition to the du/dt reduction methods available. This thesis improves on the existing control method for the filter, and concentrates on the lowvoltage (below 1 kV AC) two-level voltage-source inverter implementation of the method. The ADUDT uses narrow voltage pulses having a duration in the order of a microsecond from an IGBT (insulated gate bipolar transistor) inverter to control the output voltage of a tuned LC filter circuit. The filter output voltage has thus increased slope transition times at the rising and falling edges, with an opportunity of no overshoot. The effect of the longer slope transition times is a reduction in the du/dt of the voltage fed to the motor cable. Lower du/dt values result in a reduction in the overvoltage effects on the motor terminals. Compared with traditional output filtering methods to accomplish this task, the active du/dt filtering provides lower inductance values and a smaller physical size of the filter itself. The filter circuit weight can also be reduced. However, the power semiconductor nonlinearities skew the filter control pulse pattern, resulting in control deviation. This deviation introduces unwanted overshoot and resonance in the filter. The controlmethod proposed in this thesis is able to directly compensate for the dead time-induced zero-current clamping (ZCC) effect in the pulse pattern. It gives more flexibility to the pattern structure, which could help in the timing deviation compensation design. Previous studies have shown that when a motor load current flows in the filter circuit and the inverter, the phase leg blanking times distort the voltage pulse sequence fed to the filter input. These blanking times are caused by excessively large dead time values between the IGBT control pulses. Moreover, the various switching timing distortions, present in realworld electronics when operating with a microsecond timescale, bring additional skew to the control. Left uncompensated, this results in distortion of the filter input voltage and a filter self-induced overvoltage in the form of an overshoot. This overshoot adds to the voltage appearing at the motor terminals, thus increasing the transient voltage amplitude at the motor. This doctoral thesis investigates the magnitude of such timing deviation effects. If the motor load current is left uncompensated in the control, the filter output voltage can overshoot up to double the input voltage amplitude. IGBT nonlinearities were observed to cause a smaller overshoot, in the order of 30%. This thesis introduces an improved ADUDT control method that is able to compensate for phase leg blanking times, giving flexibility to the pulse pattern structure and dead times. The control method is still sensitive to timing deviations, and their effect is investigated. A simple approach of using a fixed delay compensation value was tried in the test setup measurements. The ADUDT method with the new control algorithm was found to work in an actual motor drive application. Judging by the simulation results, with the delay compensation, the method should ultimately enable an output voltage performance and a du/dt reduction that are free from residual overshoot effects. The proposed control algorithm is not strictly required for successful ADUDT operation: It is possible to precalculate the pulse patterns by iteration and then for instance store them into a look-up table inside the control electronics. Rather, the newly developed control method is a mathematical tool for solving the ADUDT control pulses. It does not contain the timing deviation compensation (from the logic-level command to the phase leg output voltage), and as such is not able to remove the timing deviation effects that cause error and overshoot in the filter. When the timing deviation compensation has to be tuned-in in the control pattern, the precalculated iteration method could prove simpler and equally good (or even better) compared with the mathematical solution with a separate timing compensation module. One of the key findings in this thesis is the conclusion that the correctness of the pulse pattern structure, in the sense of ZCC and predicted pulse timings, cannot be separated from the timing deviations. The usefulness of the correctly calculated pattern is reduced by the voltage edge timing errors. The doctoral thesis provides an introductory background chapter on variable-speed AC drives and the problem of motor overvoltages and takes a look at traditional solutions for overvoltage mitigation. Previous results related to the active du/dt filtering are discussed. The basic operation principle and design of the filter have been studied previously. The effect of load current in the filter and the basic idea of compensation have been presented in the past. However, there was no direct way of including the dead time in the control (except for solving the pulse pattern manually by iteration), and the magnitude of nonlinearity effects had not been investigated. The enhanced control principle with the dead time handling capability and a case study of the test setup timing deviations are the main contributions of this doctoral thesis. The simulation and experimental setup results show that the proposed control method can be used in an actual drive. Loss measurements and a comparison of active du/dt output filtering with traditional output filtering methods are also presented in the work. Two different ADUDT filter designs are included, with ferrite core and air core inductors. Other filters included in the tests were a passive du/dtfilter and a passive sine filter. The loss measurements incorporated a silicon carbide diode-equipped IGBT module, and the results show lower losses with these new device technologies. The new control principle was measured in a 43 A load current motor drive system and was able to bring the filter output peak voltage from 980 V (the previous control principle) down to 680 V in a 540 V average DC link voltage variable-speed drive. A 200 m motor cable was used, and the filter losses for the active du/dt methods were 111W–126 W versus 184 W for the passive du/dt. In terms of inverter and filter losses, the active du/dt filtering method had a 1.82-fold increase in losses compared with an all-passive traditional du/dt output filter. The filter mass with the active du/dt method was 17% (2.4 kg, air-core inductors) compared with 14 kg of the passive du/dt method filter. Silicon carbide freewheeling diodes were found to reduce the inverter losses in the active du/dt filtering by 18% compared with the same IGBT module with silicon diodes. For a 200 m cable length, the average peak voltage at the motor terminals was 1050 V with no filter, 960 V for the all-passive du/dt filter, and 700 V for the active du/dt filtering applying the new control principle.

Metabolism of diglycine and triglycine by non-filtering kidneys

We have studied the metabolism of diglycine and triglycine in the isolated non-filtering rat kidney. Kidneys from adult male Wistar Kyoto rats weighing 250-350 g were perfused with Krebs-Henseleit solution containing either 1 mM diglycine or triglycine. The analysis of the peptide residues and their components was performed using an amino acid microanalyzer utilizing ion exchange chromatography. Diglycine was degraded to a final concentration of 0.09 mM after 120 min (91%); this degradation occurred predominantly during the first hour, with a 56% reduction of the initial concentration. The metabolism of triglycine occurred similarly, with a final concentration of 0.18 mM (82%); during the first hour there was a 67% reduction of the initial concentration of the tripeptide. Both peptides produced glycine in increasing concentrations, but there was a slightly lower recovery of glycine, suggesting its utilization by the kidney as fuel. The hydrolysis of triglycine also produced diglycine, which was also hydrolyzed to glycine. The results of the present study show the existence of functional endothelial or contraluminal membrane peptidases which may be important during parenteral nutrition.

Clinical assessment of the effect of digital filtering on the detection of ventricular late potentials

Ventricular late potentials are low-amplitude signals originating from damaged myocardium and detected on the body surface by ECG filtering and averaging. Digital filters present in commercial equipment may interfere with the ability of arrhythmia stratification. We compared 40-Hz BiSpec (BI) and classical 40- to 250-Hz band-pass Butterworth bidirectional (BD) filters in terms of impact on time domain variables and diagnostic properties. In a transverse retrospective age-adjusted case-control study, 221 subjects with sinus rhythm without bundle branch block were divided into three groups after signal-averaged ECG acquisition: GI (N = 40), clinically normal controls, GII (N = 158), subjects with coronary heart disease without sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT), and GIII (N = 23), subjects with heart disease and documented SMVT. Conventional variables analyzed from vector magnitude data after averaging to 0.3 µV final noise were obtained by application of each filter to the averaged signal, and evaluated in pairs by numerical comparison and by diagnostic agreement assessment, using conventional and optimized thresholds of normality. Significant differences were found between BI and BD variables in all groups, with diagnostic results showing significant disagreement between both filters [kappa value of 0.61 (P<0.05) for GII and 0.31 for GIII (P = NS)]. Sensitivity for SMVT was lower with BI than with BD (65.2 vs 91.3%, respectively, P<0.05). Filters provided significantly different numerical and diagnostic results and the BI filter showed only limited clinical application to risk stratification of ventricular arrhythmia.

Initialization of Continuous Nonlinear Models Using Extended Kalman Filter

The two main objectives of Bayesian inference are to estimate parameters and states. In this thesis, we are interested in how this can be done in the framework of state-space models when there is a complete or partial lack of knowledge of the initial state of a continuous nonlinear dynamical system. In literature, similar problems have been referred to as diffuse initialization problems. This is achieved first by extending the previously developed diffuse initialization Kalman filtering techniques for discrete systems to continuous systems. The second objective is to estimate parameters using MCMC methods with a likelihood function obtained from the diffuse filtering. These methods are tried on the data collected from the 1995 Ebola outbreak in Kikwit, DRC in order to estimate the parameters of the system.

A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

Physicochemical and sensory changes in aged sugarcane spirit submitted to filtering with activated carbon filter

Sugarcane spirit is a drink considered as a national symbol of Brazil. It is produced by large producers and by about 30 thousand small and medium home-distilling producers dispersed throughout the country. The copper originating from the home-distillers can become a serious problem since at high concentrations in beverages it may cause serious human health problems. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the influence of the activated carbon used in commercial filters on the physicochemical and sensory characteristics of aged sugarcane spirit. Analyses of copper, dry extract, alcoholic degree, higher alcohols, volatile acids, aldehydes, esters, furfural, and methanol were performed. The sensory evaluation was performed by seven selected trained judges, who analyzed the yellow color, woody aroma and flavor, and intensity of alcoholic aroma and flavor of the cane spirit before and after the filtration process. The sensory tests were carried out using a 9 cm non-structured intensity scale. A reduction was observed in all compounds analyzed physicochemically, except for the esters, which increased after filtration. This increase is probably due to the esterification of the alcohols and acids present. According to the sensory results obtained, a reduction was observed in the intensity of the yellow color, aroma, and wood flavor characteristics, the major characteristics of the aging process.

Variational Ensemble Kalman Filtering in Hydrology

The current thesis manuscript studies the suitability of a recent data assimilation method, the Variational Ensemble Kalman Filter (VEnKF), to real-life fluid dynamic problems in hydrology. VEnKF combines a variational formulation of the data assimilation problem based on minimizing an energy functional with an Ensemble Kalman filter approximation to the Hessian matrix that also serves as an approximation to the inverse of the error covariance matrix. One of the significant features of VEnKF is the very frequent re-sampling of the ensemble: resampling is done at every observation step. This unusual feature is further exacerbated by observation interpolation that is seen beneficial for numerical stability. In this case the ensemble is resampled every time step of the numerical model. VEnKF is implemented in several configurations to data from a real laboratory-scale dam break problem modelled with the shallow water equations. It is also tried in a two-layer Quasi- Geostrophic atmospheric flow problem. In both cases VEnKF proves to be an efficient and accurate data assimilation method that renders the analysis more realistic than the numerical model alone. It also proves to be robust against filter instability by its adaptive nature.

Rigid body dynamics and Kalman filtering

X-ray computed log tomography has always been applied for qualitative reconstructions. In most cases, a series of consecutive slices of the timber are scanned to estimate the 3D image reconstruction of the entire log. However, the unexpected movement of the timber under study influences the quality of image reconstruction since the position and orientation of some scanned slices can be incorrectly estimated. In addition, the reconstruction time remains a significant challenge for practical applications. The present study investigates the possibility to employ modern physics engines for the problem of estimating the position of a moving rigid body and its scanned slices which are subject to X-ray computed tomography. The current work includes implementations of the extended Kalman filter and an algebraic reconstruction method for fan-bean computer tomography. In addition, modern techniques such as NVidia PhysX and CUDA are used in current study. As the result, it is numerically shown that it is possible to apply the extended Kalman filter together with a real-time physics engine, known as PhysX, in order to determine the position of a moving object. It is shown that the position of the rigid body can be determined based only on reconstructions of its slices. However, the simulation of the body movement sometimes is subject to an error during Kalman filter employment as PhysX is not always able to continue simulating the movement properly because of incorrect state estimation.