Spatio-temporal characteristics of Agulhas leakage: a model inter-comparison study

Investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage, the volume transport of water from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic Ocean, is highly relevant due to its potential contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as well as the global circulation of heat and salt and hence global climate. Quantifying Agulhas leakage is challenging due to the non-linear nature of this process; current observations are insufficient to estimate its variability and ocean models all have biases in this region, even at high resolution . An Eulerian threshold integration method is developed to examine the mechanisms of Agulhas leakage variability in six ocean model simulations of varying resolution. This intercomparison, based on the circulation and thermo- haline structure at the Good Hope line, a transect to the south west of the southern tip of Africa, is used to identify features that are robust regardless of the model used and takes into account the thermohaline biases of each model. When determined by a passive tracer method, 60 % of the magnitude of Agulhas leakage is captured and more than 80 % of its temporal fluctuations, suggesting that the method is appropriate for investigating the variability of Agulhas leakage. In all simulations but one, the major driver of variability is associated with mesoscale features passing through the section. High resolution (<1/10 deg.) hindcast models agree on the temporal (2–4 cycles per year) and spatial (300–500 km) scales of these features corresponding to observed Agulhas Rings. Coarser resolution models (<1/4 deg.) reproduce similar time scale of variability of Agulhas leakage in spite of their difficulties in representing the Agulhas rings properties. A coarser resolution climate model (2 deg.) does not resolve the spatio-temporal mechanism of variability of Agulhas leakage. Hence it is expected to underestimate the contribution of Agulhas Current System to climate variability.

Spatio-temporal Variability of Atmospheric Ozone over Indian Subcontinent and its Relation to Meteorological Parameters

Ozone present in the atmosphere not only absorbs the biologically harmful ultraviolet radiation but also is an important ingredient of the climate system. The radiative absorption properties of ozone make it a determining factor in the structure of the atmosphere. Ozone in the troposphere has many negative impacts on humans and other living beings. Another significant aspect is the absorption of outgoing infrared radiation by ozone thus acting as a greenhouse gas. The variability of ozone in the atmosphere involves many interconnections with the incoming and outgoing radiation, temperature circulation etc. Hence ozone forms an important part of chemistry-climate as well as radiative transfer models. This aspect also makes the quantification of ozone more important. The discovery of Antarctic ozone hole and the role of anthropogenic activities in causing it made it possible to plan and implement necessary preventive measures. Continuous monitoring of ozone is also necessary to identify the effect of these preventive steps. The reactions involving the formation and destruction of ozone are influenced significantly by the temperature fluctuations of the atmosphere. On the other hand the variations in ozone can change the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Indian subcontinent is a region having large weather and climate variability which is evident from the large interannual variability of monsoon system over the region. Nearly half of Indian region comprises the tropical region. Most of ozone is formed in the tropical region and transported to higher latitudes. The formation and transport of ozone can be influenced by changes in solar radiation and various atmospheric circulation features. Besides industrial activities and vehicular traffic is more due to its large population. This may give rise to an increase in the production of tropospheric ozone which is greenhouse gas. Hence it becomes necessary to monitor the atmospheric ozone over this region. This study probes into the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of ozone over Indian subcontinent and discusses the contributing atmospheric parameters.

Spatio-temporal coverage optimization of sensor networks

Les réseaux de capteurs sont formés d’un ensemble de dispositifs capables de prendre individuellement des mesures d’un environnement particulier et d’échanger de l’information afin d’obtenir une représentation de haut niveau sur les activités en cours dans la zone d’intérêt. Une telle détection distribuée, avec de nombreux appareils situés à proximité des phénomènes d’intérêt, est pertinente dans des domaines tels que la surveillance, l’agriculture, l’observation environnementale, la surveillance industrielle, etc. Nous proposons dans cette thèse plusieurs approches pour effectuer l’optimisation des opérations spatio-temporelles de ces dispositifs, en déterminant où les placer dans l’environnement et comment les contrôler au fil du temps afin de détecter les cibles mobiles d’intérêt. La première nouveauté consiste en un modèle de détection réaliste représentant la couverture d’un réseau de capteurs dans son environnement. Nous proposons pour cela un modèle 3D probabiliste de la capacité de détection d’un capteur sur ses abords. Ce modèle inègre également de l’information sur l’environnement grâce à l’évaluation de la visibilité selon le champ de vision. À partir de ce modèle de détection, l’optimisation spatiale est effectuée par la recherche du meilleur emplacement et l’orientation de chaque capteur du réseau. Pour ce faire, nous proposons un nouvel algorithme basé sur la descente du gradient qui a été favorablement comparée avec d’autres méthodes génériques d’optimisation «boites noires» sous l’aspect de la couverture du terrain, tout en étant plus efficace en terme de calculs. Une fois que les capteurs placés dans l’environnement, l’optimisation temporelle consiste à bien couvrir un groupe de cibles mobiles dans l’environnement. D’abord, on effectue la prédiction de la position future des cibles mobiles détectées par les capteurs. La prédiction se fait soit à l’aide de l’historique des autres cibles qui ont traversé le même environnement (prédiction à long terme), ou seulement en utilisant les déplacements précédents de la même cible (prédiction à court terme). Nous proposons de nouveaux algorithmes dans chaque catégorie qui performent mieux ou produits des résultats comparables par rapport aux méthodes existantes. Une fois que les futurs emplacements de cibles sont prédits, les paramètres des capteurs sont optimisés afin que les cibles soient correctement couvertes pendant un certain temps, selon les prédictions. À cet effet, nous proposons une méthode heuristique pour faire un contrôle de capteurs, qui se base sur les prévisions probabilistes de trajectoire des cibles et également sur la couverture probabiliste des capteurs des cibles. Et pour terminer, les méthodes d’optimisation spatiales et temporelles proposées ont été intégrées et appliquées avec succès, ce qui démontre une approche complète et efficace pour l’optimisation spatio-temporelle des réseaux de capteurs.

Spatio-temporal filtering properties of a dendritic cable with active spines: a modeling study in the spike-diffuse-spike framework

The spike-diffuse-spike (SDS) model describes a passive dendritic tree with active dendritic spines. Spine-head dynamics is modeled with a simple integrate-and-fire process, whilst communication between spines is mediated by the cable equation. In this paper we develop a computational framework that allows the study of multiple spiking events in a network of such spines embedded on a simple one-dimensional cable. In the first instance this system is shown to support saltatory waves with the same qualitative features as those observed in a model with Hodgkin-Huxley kinetics in the spine-head. Moreover, there is excellent agreement with the analytically calculated speed for a solitary saltatory pulse. Upon driving the system with time varying external input we find that the distribution of spines can play a crucial role in determining spatio-temporal filtering properties. In particular, the SDS model in response to periodic pulse train shows a positive correlation between spine density and low-pass temporal filtering that is consistent with the experimental results of Rose and Fortune [1999, Mechanisms for generating temporal filters in the electrosensory system. The Journal of Experimental Biology 202, 1281-1289]. Further, we demonstrate the robustness of observed wave properties to natural sources of noise that arise both in the cable and the spine-head, and highlight the possibility of purely noise induced waves and coherent oscillations.

Spatio-temporal patterns of herbage availability and livestock movements: A cross-border analysis in the Chinese-Mongolian Altay

Due to increasing population and the recent implementation of policies to intensify the use of land and water resources, the transhumant pastoral systems in the Chinese-Mongolian Altay-Dzungarian region are rapidly changing, leading to modifications of herd size, herd composition and spatial distribution of livestock grazing. This may have major consequences for the supply and quality of rangeland biomass. Despite similar topographic settings, the socio-political framework for Chinese and Mongolian pastoralists differs significantly, leading to differences in rangeland utilization. To substantiate these claims, the long-distance transhumance routes, frequency of pasture changes, daily grazing itineraries and size of pastures were recorded by means of GPS tracking of cattle and goats on 1,535 (China) and 1,396 (Mongolia) observation days. The status quo of the main seasonal pastures was captured by measuring the herbage offer and its nutritive value in 869 sampling spots. In the Altay-Dzungarian region, small ruminant herds covered up to 412 km (Mongolia) and grazed on up to nine pastures per year (China). In Mongolia, the herds’ average duration of stay at an individual pasture was longer than in China, particularly in spring and autumn. Herbage allowance at the onset of a grazing period (kg dry matter per sheep unit and day) ranged from 34/17 to 91/95 (China/Mongolia). Comparing crude protein and phosphorous concentrations of herbage, in China, the highest concentrations were measured for spring and summer pastures, whereas in Mongolia, the highest concentrations were determined for autumn and winter pastures. Based on our data, we conclude that regulation of animal numbers and access to pastures seemingly maintained pasture productivity in China, especially at high altitudes. However, this policy may prohibit flexible adaptation to sudden environmental constraints. In contrast, high stocking densities and grazing of pastures before flowering of herbaceous plants negatively affected rangeland productivity in Mongolia, especially for spring and summer pastures.

Analysis of heat-related phenomena and their interactions at different spatio-temporal scales

This thesis analyzes the impact of heat extremes in urban and rural environments, considering processes related to severely high temperatures and unusual dryness. The first part deals with the influence of large-scale heatwave events on the local-scale urban heat island (UHI) effect. The temperatures recorded over a 20-year summer period by meteorological stations in 37 European cities are examined to evaluate the variations of UHI during heatwaves with respect to non-heatwave days. A statistical analysis reveals a negligible impact of large-scale extreme temperatures on the local daytime urban climate, while a notable exacerbation of UHI effect at night. A comparison with the UrbClim model outputs confirms the UHI strengthening during heatwave episodes, with an intensity independent of the climate zone. The investigation of the relationship between large-scale temperature anomalies and UHI highlights a smooth and continuous dependence, but with a strong variability. The lack of a threshold behavior in this relationship suggests that large-scale temperature variability can affect the local-scale UHI even in different conditions than during extreme events. The second part examines the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought, being the first stage of the drought propagation process. A multi-year reanalysis dataset involving numerous drought events over the Iberian Peninsula is considered. The behavior of different non-parametric standardized drought indices in drought detection is evaluated. A statistical approach based on run theory is employed, analyzing the main characteristics of drought propagation. The propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought events is found to develop in about 1-2 months. The duration of agricultural drought appears shorter than that of meteorological drought, but the onset is delayed. The propagation probability increases with the severity of the originating meteorological drought. A new combined agricultural drought index is developed to be a useful tool for balancing the characteristics of other adopted indices.

El Nino and arboviral disease prediction

Recent El Nino events have stimulated interest in the development of modeling techniques to forecast extremes of climate and related health events. Previous studies have documented associations between specific climate variables (particularly temperature and rainfall) and outbreaks of arboviral disease. In some countries, such diseases are sensitive to Fl Nino. Here we describe a climate-based model for the prediction of Ross River virus epidemics in Australia. From a literature search and data on case notifications, we determined in which years there were epidemics of Ross River virus in southern Australia between 1928 and 1998. Predictor variables were monthly Southern Oscillation index values for the year of an epidemic or lagged by 1 year. We found that in southeastern states, epidemic years were well predicted by monthly Southern Oscillation index values in January and September in the previous year. The model forecasts that there is a high probability of epidemic Ross River virus in the southern states of Australia in 1999. We conclude that epidemics of arboviral disease can, at least in principle, be predicted on the basis of climate relationships.

Evaluation of liquid Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis products for control of Australian Aedes arbovirus vectors

Laboratory bioassay studies were conducted in southeast Queensland, Australia,: on the efficacy of Teknar (R), VectoBac (R) 12AS, and Cybate (R) (active ingredient: 1,200 international toxic units Bacillus thuringiensis var, israelensis [Bti]) against 3rd instars of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti. Ae. notoscriptus, Ae. vigilax, and Ae. camptorhynchus. Probit analyses were then used to determine LD,, (median lethal dose), LD95, and lethal dose ratios (LDR). Aedes aegypti and Ae. notoscriptus, both container-habitat species, tolerated the highest Bti concentrations compared with saltmarsh Ae. vigilax and Ae. camptorhynchus. For example, the LDR for Ae. vigilax versus Ae. notoscriptus exposed to Cybate was 0.14 (95% confidence limit [CL] 0.03-0.61). Similarly, the Cybate LDR for Ae. camptorhynchus versus Ae. notoscriptus was 0.22 (95% CL 0.07-0.70). Teknar produced similar results with an LDR of 0.21 (95% CL 0.04-1.10) for Aedes vigilax versus Aedes notoscriptus. Differences in product efficacy were found when tested against the 2 container-breeding species. Cybate was less effective than Teknar with LDRs of 1.55 (95% CL 0.65-3.67) and 1.87 (95% CL 0.68-5.15) for Aedes aegypti and Ae. notoscriptus, respectively. The significant differences in susceptibility between mosquito species and varying efficacy between products highlight the importance of evaluating concentration-response data prior to contracting with distributors of mosquito control products. This information is crucial to resistance management strategies.

Isolation of arboviruses from mosquitoes (Diptera : Culicidae) collected from the Gulf Plains region of northwest Queensland, Australia

As part of investigations into Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus and related flaviviruses in northern Australia, 153,529 mosquitoes were collected and processed for virus isolation from the Gulf Plains region of northwest Queensland. Collections front within 30 km of each of the townships of Croydon, Normanton and Karumba yielded 3,087 (2.0%), 66,009 (43.0%), and 84,433 (55.0%) mosquitoes, respectively, from which 16 viruses were isolated. Four isolates of Murray Valley encephalitis (MVE), two of Kunjin (KUN), three of Ross River (1111), and one of Sindbis (SIN) viruses were obtained from Culex sitiens subgroup mosquitoes. Molecular identification of the mosquito species composition of these virus positive pools revealed that most isolates were from pools containing mainly Culex annulirostris Skuse and low numbers of Cidex palpalis (Taylor). Only three pools, one each of MVE, KUN, and RR, were from mosquitoes identified exclusively as Cx. annulirostris. Other viruses isolated include one Edge Hill Virus from Ochlerotatus normanensis (Taylor), an isolate of SIN from Anopheles meraukensis Venhuis, two isolates of RR from Anopheles amictus Edwards, and single isolates of RR from Anopheles bancroftii Giles and Aedes lineatopennis (Ludlow). The isolate of RR from Ae. lineatopennis was the first reported from this species. The public health implications of these isolations in the Gulf Plains region are discussed briefly.

Development and evaluation of a species diagnostic polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment-length polymorphism procedure for cryptic members of the Culex sitiens (Diptera : Culicidae) subgroup in Australia and the southwest Pacific

Members of the Culex sitiens subgroup are important vectors of arboviruses, including Japanese encephalitis virus, Murray Valley encephalitis virus and Ross River virus. Of the eight described species, Cx. annulirostris Skuse, Cx. sitiens Wiedemann, and Cx. palpalis Taylor appear to be the most abundant and widespread throughout northern Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). Recent investigations using allozymes have shown this subgroup to contain cryptic species that possess overlapping adult morphology. We report the development of a polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment-length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) procedure that reliably separates these three species. This procedure utilizes the sequence variation in the ribosomal DNA ITS1 and demonstrates species-specific PCR-RFLP profiles from both colony and field collected material. Assessment of the consistency of this procedure was undertaken on mosquitoes sampled from a wide geographic area including Australia, PNG, and the Solomon Islands. Overlapping adult morphology was observed for Cx. annulirostris and Cx. palpalis in both northern Queensland and PNG and for all three species at one site in northwest Queensland.

Flavivirus isolations from mosquitoes collected from western Cape York Peninsula, Australia, 1999-2000

After the 1st appearance of Japanese encephalitis virus (JE) on mainland Australia in 1998, a study was undertaken to investigate whether JE had become established in enzootic transmission cycles on western Cape York Peninsula. Adult mosquitoes were collected during the late wet season from Kowanyama and Pormpuraaw in April 1999, and Pormpuraaw and Barr's Yard in April 2000. Despite processing 269,270 mosquitoes for virus isolation, no isolates of JE were obtained. However, other flaviviruses comprising Murray Valley encephalitis virus, Kunjin virus, Alfuy virus, and Kokobera virus (KOK) were isolated. Isolates of the alphaviruses Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus (BF), and Sindbis virus (SIN) also were obtained. The majority (88%) of isolates were from members of the Culex sitiens subgroup. Single isolates of KOK, BF and SIN were obtained from Ochlerotatus vigilax, Oc. normanensis, and Anopheles bancroftii, respectively. The isolations of flaviviruses during the late wet season indicate that conditions were suitable for flavivirus activity in the area. No evidence was found to suggest that JE has become established in enzootic transmission cycles on western Cape York, although study sites and field trips were limited.