Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

Explaining patterns of avian diversity and endemicity: climate and biomes of southern Africa over the last 140,000 years

Aim Test hypotheses that present biodiversity and endemic species richness are related to climatic stability and/or biome persistence.Location Africa south of 15° S. Methods Seventy eight HadCM3 general circulation model palaeoclimate experiments spanning the last 140,000 years, plus a pre-industrial experiment,were used to calculate measures of climatic variability for 0.5° grid cells. Models were fitted relating distributions of the nine biomes of South Africa,Lesotho and Swaziland to present climate. These models were used to simulate potential past biome distribution and extent for the 78 palaeoclimate experiments, and three measures of biome persistence. Climatic response surfaces were fitted for 690 bird species regularly breeding in the region and used to simulate present species richness for cells of the 0.5° grid. Species richness was evaluated for residents, mobile species (nomadic or partially/altitudinally migrant within the region), and intra-African migrants, and also separately for endemic/near-endemic (hereafter ‘endemic’) species as a whole and those associated with each biome. Our hypotheses were tested by analysing correlations between species richness and climatic variability or biome persistence. Results The magnitude of climatic variability showed clear spatial patterns. Marked changes in biome distributions and extents were projected, although limited areas of persistence were projected for some biomes. Overall species richness was not correlated with climatic variability, although richness of mobile species showed a weak negative correlation. Endemic species richness was significantly negatively correlated with climatic variability. Strongest correlations, however, were positive correlations between biome persistence and richness of endemics associated with individual biomes. Main conclusions Low climatic variability, and especially a degree of stability enabling biome persistence, is strongly correlated with species richness of birds endemic to southern Africa. This probably principally reflects reduced extinction risk for these species where the biome to which they are adapted persisted

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval.

On the origins and timescales of geoeffective IMF

Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) reference frame is the key element that controls the level of space-weather disturbance in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. We discuss the relation of this geoeffective IMF component to the IMF in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) frame and, using the almost continuous interplanetary data for 1996-2015 (inclusive), we show that large geomagnetic storms are always associated with strong southward, out-of-ecliptic field in the GSE frame: dipole tilt effects, that cause the difference between the southward field in the GSM and GSE frames, generally make only a minor contribution to these strongest storms. The time-of-day/time-of-year response patterns of geomagnetic indices and the optimum solar wind coupling function are both influenced by the timescale of the index response. We also study the occurrence spectrum of large out-of-ecliptic field and show that for one-hour averages it is, surprisingly, almost identical in ICMEs (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections), around CIRs/SIRs (Corotating and Stream Interaction Regions) and in the “quiet” solar wind (which is shown to be consistent with the effect of weak SIRs). However, differences emerge when the timescale over which the field remains southward is considered: for longer averaging timescales the spectrum is broader inside ICMEs, showing that these events generate longer intervals of strongly southward average IMF and consequently stronger geomagnetic storms. The behavior of out-of-ecliptic field with timescale is shown to be very similar to that of deviations from the predicted Parker spiral orientation, suggesting the two share common origins.

A new genus of Neotropical Chrysopini (Neuroptera: Chrysopidae)

Titanochrysa Sosa & Freitas is a new genus of Neotropical Chrysopini (Chrysopidae: Chrysopinae) recorded from Costa Rica, Venezuela and Brazil. Titanochrysa gen. nov. shares several external and genitalic characters with Ceraeochrysa Adams, 1982; Chrysopodes Navas, 1913; Cryptochrysa Freitas & Penny, 2000; Parachrysopiella Brooks & Barnard, 1990 and Ungla Navas 1914. It may be distinguished from those genera by its very long sternite 8+9, sternites 2-8 usually with microtholi, male genitalia with the dorsal surface of the arcessus striated, gonosaccus well-developed, bearing elongate gonosetae and microsetae, and a spoon-like gonapsis. Herein, Titanochrysa circumfusa (Burmeister, 1939) [= Chrysopodes circumfusa (Burmeister)] comb. nov. and Titanochrysa pseudovaricosa (Penny) [= Ceraeochrysa pseudovaricosa Penny, 1998] comb. nov. were identified; Titanochrysa ferreirai Sosa & Freitas sp. nov. and Titanochrysa trespuntensis Sosa & Freitas sp. nov. were described. The external morphology, and male and female genitalia of all these species are described. Titanochrysa circumfusa (Burmeister, 1939) comb. nov. is recorded for the first time from Venezuela.

Phenological Changes in the Southern Hemisphere

Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at large regional scales (with very few studies in the tropics or from Africa) and dramatic taxonomic biases. If accurate predictions regarding the general effects of climate change on the biology of organisms are to be made, data collection policies focussing on targeting data-deficient regions and taxa need to be financially and logistically supported. © 2013 Chambers et al.

Correlação entre imagens de tomografia computadorizada e cortes anatômicos do encéfalo de cães

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Neuroimagem de encéfalo de gatos domésticos: correlação entre tomografia computadorizada e cortes anatômicos

Pós-graduação em Cirurgia Veterinária - FCAV

Sistemas de controle em domínios estratificados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

City of Aiken Postcards - Accession 57 - M27 (39)

The City of Aiken Postcards collection consists of five unused and undated postcards depicting scenes from Aiken, SC including Hitchcock Woods, Polo at Aiken, The Race Tracks at Aiken, Thoroughbred Trials, and the residence of Mrs. W.R. Grace, Barnard Road.

Host-Specificity of Myxoma Virus: Pathogenesis of South American and North American Strains of Myxoma Virus in Two North American Lagomorph Species

The pathogenesis of South American and North American myxoma viruses was examined in two species of North American lagomorphs, Sylvilagus nuttallii (mountain cottontail) and Sylvilagus audubonii (desert cottontail) both of which have been shown to have the potential to transmit the South American type of myxoma virus. Following infection with the South American strain (Lausanne, Lu), S. nuttallii developed both a local lesion and secondary lesions on the skin. They did not develop the classical myxomatosis seen in European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). The infection at the inoculation site did not resolve during the 20-day time course of the trial and contained transmissible virus titres at all times. In contrast, S. audubonii infected with Lu had very few signs of disseminated infection and partially controlled virus replication at the inoculation site. The prototype Californian strain of myxoma virus (MSW) was able to replicate at the inoculation site of both species but did not induce clinical signs of a disseminated infection. In S. audubonii, there was a rapid response to MSW characterized by a massive T lymphocyte infiltration of the inoculation site by day 5. MSW did not reach transmissible titres at the inoculation site in either species. This might explain why the Californian myxoma virus has not expanded its host-range in North America.

Mobbning i skolan. : Vad är det och hur kan det förebyggas?

Mobbning är ett stort problem på skolorna runt om i världen och även i Sverige. För elever är det en grundläggande rättighet att kunna känna sig trygga i skolan och inte bli utsatta för övergrepp eller förnedrande behandling. Detta är en litteraturstudie som sammanställer forskning kring mobbning, olika åtgärdsprogram samt vilka effekter olika åtgärdsprogram haft. Med mobbning menas att en eller flera individer tillfogar någon annan skada, antingen fysiskt eller psykiskt, vid upprepade tillfällen. Olika åtgärdsprogram har utvecklats som ett sätt att förebygga samt stoppa mobbning. Gemensamt för dessa är skapa ett bra skolklimat där eleverna visar respekt för varandra och utvecklar goda relationer. Olika studier har gjorts för att visa på effekterna av åtgärdsprogram och fått varierande resultat, men gemensamt är att det behövs insatser för att förebygga och stoppa mobbning och det måste finnas en kontinuitet i detta arbete. De vuxna på skolan bär ansvaret att på ett effektivt och bra sätt arbeta för att mobbning inte skall uppstå samt att tidigt stoppa mobbning som uppstår.

Diversity Promotes Temporal Stability across Levels of Ecosystem Organization in Experimental Grasslands

The diversity–stability hypothesis states that current losses of biodiversity can impair the ability of an ecosystem to dampen the effect of environmental perturbations on its functioning. Using data from a long-term and comprehensive biodiversity experiment, we quantified the temporal stability of 42 variables characterizing twelve ecological functions in managed grassland plots varying in plant species richness. We demonstrate that diversity increases stability i) across trophic levels (producer, consumer), ii) at both the system (community, ecosystem) and the component levels (population, functional group, phylogenetic clade), and iii) primarily for aboveground rather than belowground processes. Temporal synchronization across studied variables was mostly unaffected with increasing species richness. This study provides the strongest empirical support so far that diversity promotes stability across different ecological functions and levels of ecosystem organization in grasslands

Soil Chemical Response to Experimental Acidification Treatments

One of the conclusions reached during the Congressionally mandated National Acid Precipitation Program (NAPAP) was that, compared to ozone and other stress factors, the direct effects of acidic deposition on forest health and productivity were likely to be relatively minor. However, the report also concluded “the possibility of long-term (several decades) adverse effects on some soils appears realistic” (Barnard et al. 1990). Possible mechanisms for these long-term effects include: (1) accelerated leaching of base cations from soils and foliage, (2) increased mobilization of aluminum (Al) and other metals such as manganese (Mn), (3) inhibition of soil biological processes, including organic matter decomposition, and (4) increased bioavailability of nitrogen (N).

A comparison of the strength of biodiversity effects across multiple functions

In order to predict which ecosystem functions are most at risk from biodiversity loss, meta-analyses have generalised results from biodiversity experiments over different sites and ecosystem types. In contrast, comparing the strength of biodiversity effects across a large number of ecosystem processes measured in a single experiment permits more direct comparisons. Here, we present an analysis of 418 separate measures of 38 ecosystem processes. Overall, 45 % of processes were significantly affected by plant species richness, suggesting that, while diversity affects a large number of processes not all respond to biodiversity. We therefore compared the strength of plant diversity effects between different categories of ecosystem processes, grouping processes according to the year of measurement, their biogeochemical cycle, trophic level and compartment (above- or belowground) and according to whether they were measures of biodiversity or other ecosystem processes, biotic or abiotic and static or dynamic. Overall, and for several individual processes, we found that biodiversity effects became stronger over time. Measures of the carbon cycle were also affected more strongly by plant species richness than were the measures associated with the nitrogen cycle. Further, we found greater plant species richness effects on measures of biodiversity than on other processes. The differential effects of plant diversity on the various types of ecosystem processes indicate that future research and political effort should shift from a general debate about whether biodiversity loss impairs ecosystem functions to focussing on the specific functions of interest and ways to preserve them individually or in combination.