Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Relações internacionais: o comércio exterior do Brasil e Rio Grande do Norte no período de 1999 a 2008

The period post-war promoted several changes in relations economic, political and social world. Since then, a new division international of labor has delineated, with the great growth of Asian countries. In the field of international relations, the world still appears to transition is not completed because the old institutions were not replaced by new ones and the power of the United States as a major capitalist country remains unshaken, even with the emergence and strengthening of new economic global blocs. With globalization, Brazil emerges with more intensity in the face of new issues global, although its share in transactions trade global hasn‟t changed accordingly. In this sense, the objective of this dissertation is to examine, in a descriptive and critical the development of international relations and trade of Brazil and Rio Grande do Norte with the main blocs in the world from 1999 to 2008. As a secondary objective: to identify the assumptions theoretical that underpinned the decisions governments of the FHC and Lula, in particular, the interference of these terms in international relations and foreign trade. Adopted as the procedure methodological the literature review of the subject, as well as collection and processing of the data of foreign trade. During the Cardoso government has undergone the substantial growth in imports, as part of the economic policy of anti-inflationary, generating large deficits trade. From the first to the second term, with the inflection of exchange rate policy the country has resumed surpluses trade. The choice of government of the autonomy participation increased the relative share of the traditional blocks in total foreign trade and reduced the share of MERCOSUL. In the Lula government, there is the maintenance of some elements of the economic policy of the previous government and the partial shift in the conduct of foreign policy, with the option of autonomy through diversification, raising its stake on the blocks and other emerging countries in total foreign trade Brazilian and reducing the contribution of the traditional blocks such as NAFTA and the European Union. A trend observed in the previous government and deepened in the Lula government was the growth in commodity exports and the decline of manufactured products, confirming the model of conservative insertion of Brazilian exports. The Rio Grande do Norte followed the trend Brazilian in the growth of foreign trade, including in participating conservative, given that the products exported by the state are basically coming from horticulture irrigated and agribusiness. However, in the aspect of destination export, the state followed trajectory distinct from that in the Lula government, with the deepening of trade relations with traditional blocks, especially with the European Union and NAFTA

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2004: 2005 trends

Includes bibliography

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2005-2006

Includes bibliography

Comercio, inversión y fragmentación del mercado global: ¿está quedando atrás América Latina?

Incluye Bibliografía

DR-CAFTA: aspectos relevantes seleccionados del Tratado y reformas legales que deben realizar a su entrada en vigor los países de Centroamérica y la República Dominicana

Incluye Bibliografía

Estimating the effects of United States food safety and agricultural health standards on agro-food exports from Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Andean exchange-rate regimes, 1994-2003: a brief for stable but flexible" regimes"

Includes bibliography

Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2014: Regional integration and value chains in a challenging external environment

The 2014 edition of Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy: Regional integration and value chains amid challenging external conditions has four chapters. Chapter I examines the main features of the international context and their repercussions for world and regional trade. Chapter II looks at Latin American and Caribbean participation in global value chains and confirms that the region, with the exception of Mexico and Central America, has only limited linkages with the three major regional value chains of Asia, Europe and North America. This chapter also looks at how participation in value chains may contribute to more inclusive structural change, by analysing three core microeconomic aspects. Chapter III identifies various spheres in which regional integration and cooperation can help strengthen production integration between the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. The fourth chapter explores the intra- and extraregional trade relations of the countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and considers how to strengthen production integration in the subregion by taking advantage of linkages beyond trade and building on commercial and production complementarities among the members. The chapter also reviews the differences between the countries in terms of income, population and production and export structure, in a context of marked macroeconomic vulnerability.

The CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA): an assessment of issues relating to market access, safeguards and implications for regional integration

The recent collapse of the Doha round once again underscores the tenuous nature of international trade negotiations. Likewise, the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the CARIFORUM grouping and the European Union (EU) has generated a great deal of discussion and debate over the past several months. What has clearly emerged is the existence of two diametrically opposed views on the impact and usefulness of the agreement. One view has it that the EPA is a major breakthrough in trade relations that will greatly benefit the region. On the other hand, some see it as being detrimental to the region and perhaps a total capitulation to the EU on the part of the CARIFORUM. They assert that it is part of a global EU strategy to impose World Trade Organization (WTO) policies on developing nations and get around the Doha obstacles. Both sides in this debate attempt to back up their views with reference to the text of the agreement. The objective of this review is to shed some light on the issues driving this debate particularly in the areas of market access, the impact on tariff revenues, and the implications for regional integration. This review also attempts to clarify and distill some of the main contentious issues regarding the EPA and to inform further discussion regarding an implementation plan. The approach is based on detailed study of the EPA text and its annexes plus extensive interviews with some of the main negotiators on the CARIFORUM side. Interviews were conducted both in person and via the Internet as many of the regional negotiators live or work outside of the region. The reviewer also attended presentations and discussions with some of the leading regional critics of the agreement.

The People’s Republic of China and Latin America: the impact of Chinese economic growth on Latin American exports

The role of the People’s Republic of China in the world economy has grown substantially in recent decades, turning it into a strategic foreign trading partner for much of Latin America. Bilateral trade between the region and China totalled US$ 120 billion in 2009. This study analyses the income elasticity of the region’s exports to the country. The findings show that, assuming real gross domestic product (gdp) growth in China of about 7% a year, the value of Latin American exports to China (at 2005 prices) can be expected to increase by an average of about 10% a year between 2014 and 2019. In a more conservative scenario of 4.5% average annual growth in the Chinese economy over the period, exports would rise by about 7% a year.

Um passado persistente: o sistema de aviamento na extração madeireira da Ilha do Mututi, Município de Breves/PA

Através de pesquisa empírica junto ao conceito chave Organização e a categoria Sistema de Aviamento, somados a outros conceitos que perpassaram as suas analises neste estudo (poder reciprocidade, jogos), esta dissertação analisa a substituição do contexto extrativista da borracha pelo da extração e beneficiamento de madeira na área de um antigo seringal localizado na Ilha do Mututi, Município de Breves/PA. Com o intuito de experimentar e comprovar a abrangência dos resultados encontrados na Ilha, assim como, para garantir o distanciamento necessário à pesquisa social, a analise foi estendida a outras localidades às quais apresentavam semelhanças históricas em suas formações sociais e econômicas. Neste sentido, buscou-se aferir no âmbito das relações comerciais entre patrões e fregueses, substituições, permanências ou transformações, nesta segunda, da forma de organização anterior. Assim como, os fatores que contribuiram para o surgimento e manutenção desses eventos e as atuais consequências sociais e econômicas resultantes deste novo ou reelaborado modelo de organização na vida dos seus membros.

A institucionalização da agricultura familiar no mercosul

The Mercosul project, signed in 1991, represents the union of a political project, characterized by a democratic agreement among its members, with an economical project characterized by the trade liberalization among its regional members and among these with the global economy. So, it was constituted, with the aim to expand the national trades by the integration, to increase the economic development process with social justice. However, the Mercosul follows the historical trajectory of Latin America integration, characterized by models that aimed the economical development from the strengthening of the industry. According to that, the Mercosul politics are priority for economic issues, focused in the industrialization and trade relations, giving less priority to the social demands. In opposition to such ideas, in 2004 was created the Especialized Meeting about Family Farm (Reunião Especializada sobre Agricultura Familiar - REAF) in the Mercosul, that aim to strengthen the public policies of the sector, to promote the commercialization of the family farm products in the region. So, the family farm, a sector historically marginalized from the integration projects, it is institutionalized in the Mercosul. In that way, the aim of this research is to discuss the reasons that leaded to the family farm institutionalization, and also to analyze the advances and problems of the Especialized Meeting about Family Farm

Mudança política no Paraguai e as relações com o Brasil: o caso da renegociação do Tratado de Itaipu

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Constrangimentos domésticos à política externa comercial dos Estados Unidos no governo Clinton (1993-2001)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)