Burned Area Mapping in the North American Boreal Forest Using Terra-MODIS LTDR (2001–2011): A Comparison with the MCD45A1, MCD64A1 and BA GEOLAND-2 Products

An algorithm based on a Bayesian network classifier was adapted to produce 10-day burned area (BA) maps from the Long Term Data Record Version 3 (LTDR) at a spatial resolution of 0.05° (~5 km) for the North American boreal region from 2001 to 2011. The modified algorithm used the Brightness Temperature channel from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) band 31 T31 (11.03 μm) instead of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) band T3 (3.75 μm). The accuracy of the BA-LTDR, the Collection 5.1 MODIS Burned Area (MCD45A1), the MODIS Collection 5.1 Direct Broadcast Monthly Burned Area (MCD64A1) and the Burned Area GEOLAND-2 (BA GEOLAND-2) products was assessed using reference data from the Alaska Fire Service (AFS) and the Canadian Forest Service National Fire Database (CFSNFD). The linear regression analysis of the burned area percentages of the MCD64A1 product using 40 km × 40 km grids versus the reference data for the years from 2001 to 2011 showed an agreement of R2 = 0.84 and a slope = 0.76, while the BA-LTDR showed an agreement of R2 = 0.75 and a slope = 0.69. These results represent an improvement over the MCD45A1 product, which showed an agreement of R2 = 0.67 and a slope = 0.42. The MCD64A1, BA-LTDR and MCD45A1 products underestimated the total burned area in the study region, whereas the BA GEOLAND-2 product overestimated it by approximately five-fold, with an agreement of R2 = 0.05. Despite MCD64A1 showing the best overall results, the BA-LTDR product proved to be an alternative for mapping burned areas in the North American boreal forest region compared with the other global BA products, even those with higher spatial/spectral resolution

Modelagem de emoções utilizando redes bayesianas

As emoções são consideradas a regra central de nossas vidas, tendo grande impacto na tomada de decisões, ações, memória, atenção, etc. Sendo assim, existe grande interesse em simulá-las em ambientes computacionais, possibilitando que situações do cotidiano humano possam ser estudadas em ambientes controlados. Embora existam modelos teóricos para o funcionamento de emoções, estes por si só são insuficientes para uma simulação precisa em meios computacionais. Tendo como base um destes modelos, o modelo OCC, essa dissertação propõe a simulação de emoções em ambientes mutiagentes através da criação de uma rede Bayesiana capaz de traduzir estímulos gerados neste ambiente em emoções. A utilização de redes Bayesianas combinadas à estrutura do modelo OCC busca a adição de imprevisibilidade ao modelo, além de fornecê-lo uma estrutura computacional. A aplicação do modelo proposto a um sistema multiagentes proporciona o estudo da influência das emoções sobre as ações e comportamento dos agentes, possibilitando um estudo de comparação entre os resultados obtidos ao se realizar uma simulação multiagentes clássica e uma simulação multiagentes contendo emoções. De forma a validar e avaliar seu funcionamento, é apresentado o estudo da aplicação da rede Bayesiana de emoções sobre um modelo multiagentes exemplo, observando as variações que as emoções provocam sobre o comportamento dos agentes.

'Explicit Learning: an Effort towards Human Scheduling Algorithms'

Abstract Scheduling problems are generally NP-hard combinatorial problems, and a lot of research has been done to solve these problems heuristically. However, most of the previous approaches are problem-specific and research into the development of a general scheduling algorithm is still in its infancy. Mimicking the natural evolutionary process of the survival of the fittest, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) have attracted much attention in solving difficult scheduling problems in recent years. Some obstacles exist when using GAs: there is no canonical mechanism to deal with constraints, which are commonly met in most real-world scheduling problems, and small changes to a solution are difficult. To overcome both difficulties, indirect approaches have been presented (in [1] and [2]) for nurse scheduling and driver scheduling, where GAs are used by mapping the solution space, and separate decoding routines then build solutions to the original problem. In our previous indirect GAs, learning is implicit and is restricted to the efficient adjustment of weights for a set of rules that are used to construct schedules. The major limitation of those approaches is that they learn in a non-human way: like most existing construction algorithms, once the best weight combination is found, the rules used in the construction process are fixed at each iteration. However, normally a long sequence of moves is needed to construct a schedule and using fixed rules at each move is thus unreasonable and not coherent with human learning processes. When a human scheduler is working, he normally builds a schedule step by step following a set of rules. After much practice, the scheduler gradually masters the knowledge of which solution parts go well with others. He can identify good parts and is aware of the solution quality even if the scheduling process is not completed yet, thus having the ability to finish a schedule by using flexible, rather than fixed, rules. In this research we intend to design more human-like scheduling algorithms, by using ideas derived from Bayesian Optimization Algorithms (BOA) and Learning Classifier Systems (LCS) to implement explicit learning from past solutions. BOA can be applied to learn to identify good partial solutions and to complete them by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions [3]. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph with each node corresponding to one variable, and each variable corresponding to individual rule by which a schedule will be constructed step by step. The conditional probabilities are computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each node is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until values for all nodes have been generated. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the Bayesian network is updated again using the current set of good rule strings. The algorithm thereby tries to explicitly identify and mix promising building blocks. It should be noted that for most scheduling problems the structure of the network model is known and all the variables are fully observed. In this case, the goal of learning is to find the rule values that maximize the likelihood of the training data. Thus learning can amount to 'counting' in the case of multinomial distributions. In the LCS approach, each rule has its strength showing its current usefulness in the system, and this strength is constantly assessed [4]. To implement sophisticated learning based on previous solutions, an improved LCS-based algorithm is designed, which consists of the following three steps. The initialization step is to assign each rule at each stage a constant initial strength. Then rules are selected by using the Roulette Wheel strategy. The next step is to reinforce the strengths of the rules used in the previous solution, keeping the strength of unused rules unchanged. The selection step is to select fitter rules for the next generation. It is envisaged that the LCS part of the algorithm will be used as a hill climber to the BOA algorithm. This is exciting and ambitious research, which might provide the stepping-stone for a new class of scheduling algorithms. Data sets from nurse scheduling and mall problems will be used as test-beds. It is envisaged that once the concept has been proven successful, it will be implemented into general scheduling algorithms. It is also hoped that this research will give some preliminary answers about how to include human-like learning into scheduling algorithms and may therefore be of interest to researchers and practitioners in areas of scheduling and evolutionary computation. References 1. Aickelin, U. and Dowsland, K. (2003) 'Indirect Genetic Algorithm for a Nurse Scheduling Problem', Computer & Operational Research (in print). 2. Li, J. and Kwan, R.S.K. (2003), 'Fuzzy Genetic Algorithm for Driver Scheduling', European Journal of Operational Research 147(2): 334-344. 3. Pelikan, M., Goldberg, D. and Cantu-Paz, E. (1999) 'BOA: The Bayesian Optimization Algorithm', IlliGAL Report No 99003, University of Illinois. 4. Wilson, S. (1994) 'ZCS: A Zeroth-level Classifier System', Evolutionary Computation 2(1), pp 1-18.

An Estimation of Distribution Algorithm for Nurse Scheduling

Schedules can be built in a similar way to a human scheduler by using a set of rules that involve domain knowledge. This paper presents an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) for the nurse scheduling problem, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for the assignment of each nurse. Unlike previous work that used Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. we identify and mix building blocks directly. The EDA is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

A study of computational methods to analyze gene expression data

The recent advent of new technologies has led to huge amounts of genomic data. With these data come new opportunities to understand biological cellular processes underlying hidden regulation mechanisms and to identify disease related biomarkers for informative diagnostics. However, extracting biological insights from the immense amounts of genomic data is a challenging task. Therefore, effective and efficient computational techniques are needed to analyze and interpret genomic data. In this thesis, novel computational methods are proposed to address such challenges: a Bayesian mixture model, an extended Bayesian mixture model, and an Eigen-brain approach. The Bayesian mixture framework involves integration of the Bayesian network and the Gaussian mixture model. Based on the proposed framework and its conjunction with K-means clustering and principal component analysis (PCA), biological insights are derived such as context specific/dependent relationships and nested structures within microarray where biological replicates are encapsulated. The Bayesian mixture framework is then extended to explore posterior distributions of network space by incorporating a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) model. The extended Bayesian mixture model summarizes the sampled network structures by extracting biologically meaningful features. Finally, an Eigen-brain approach is proposed to analyze in situ hybridization data for the identification of the cell-type specific genes, which can be useful for informative blood diagnostics. Computational results with region-based clustering reveals the critical evidence for the consistency with brain anatomical structure.

A flexible bio-inspired hierarchical model for analyzing musical timbre

A flexible and multipurpose bio-inspired hierarchical model for analyzing musical timbre is presented in this paper. Inspired by findings in the fields of neuroscience, computational neuroscience, and psychoacoustics, not only does the model extract spectral and temporal characteristics of a signal, but it also analyzes amplitude modulations on different timescales. It uses a cochlear filter bank to resolve the spectral components of a sound, lateral inhibition to enhance spectral resolution, and a modulation filter bank to extract the global temporal envelope and roughness of the sound from amplitude modulations. The model was evaluated in three applications. First, it was used to simulate subjective data from two roughness experiments. Second, it was used for musical instrument classification using the k-NN algorithm and a Bayesian network. Third, it was applied to find the features that characterize sounds whose timbres were labeled in an audiovisual experiment. The successful application of the proposed model in these diverse tasks revealed its potential in capturing timbral information.

An Estimation of Distribution Algorithm for Nurse Scheduling

Schedules can be built in a similar way to a human scheduler by using a set of rules that involve domain knowledge. This paper presents an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) for the nurse scheduling problem, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for the assignment of each nurse. Unlike previous work that used Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. we identify and mix building blocks directly. The EDA is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

'Explicit Learning: an Effort towards Human Scheduling Algorithms'

Abstract Scheduling problems are generally NP-hard combinatorial problems, and a lot of research has been done to solve these problems heuristically. However, most of the previous approaches are problem-specific and research into the development of a general scheduling algorithm is still in its infancy. Mimicking the natural evolutionary process of the survival of the fittest, Genetic Algorithms (GAs) have attracted much attention in solving difficult scheduling problems in recent years. Some obstacles exist when using GAs: there is no canonical mechanism to deal with constraints, which are commonly met in most real-world scheduling problems, and small changes to a solution are difficult. To overcome both difficulties, indirect approaches have been presented (in [1] and [2]) for nurse scheduling and driver scheduling, where GAs are used by mapping the solution space, and separate decoding routines then build solutions to the original problem. In our previous indirect GAs, learning is implicit and is restricted to the efficient adjustment of weights for a set of rules that are used to construct schedules. The major limitation of those approaches is that they learn in a non-human way: like most existing construction algorithms, once the best weight combination is found, the rules used in the construction process are fixed at each iteration. However, normally a long sequence of moves is needed to construct a schedule and using fixed rules at each move is thus unreasonable and not coherent with human learning processes. When a human scheduler is working, he normally builds a schedule step by step following a set of rules. After much practice, the scheduler gradually masters the knowledge of which solution parts go well with others. He can identify good parts and is aware of the solution quality even if the scheduling process is not completed yet, thus having the ability to finish a schedule by using flexible, rather than fixed, rules. In this research we intend to design more human-like scheduling algorithms, by using ideas derived from Bayesian Optimization Algorithms (BOA) and Learning Classifier Systems (LCS) to implement explicit learning from past solutions. BOA can be applied to learn to identify good partial solutions and to complete them by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions [3]. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph with each node corresponding to one variable, and each variable corresponding to individual rule by which a schedule will be constructed step by step. The conditional probabilities are computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each node is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until values for all nodes have been generated. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the Bayesian network is updated again using the current set of good rule strings. The algorithm thereby tries to explicitly identify and mix promising building blocks. It should be noted that for most scheduling problems the structure of the network model is known and all the variables are fully observed. In this case, the goal of learning is to find the rule values that maximize the likelihood of the training data. Thus learning can amount to 'counting' in the case of multinomial distributions. In the LCS approach, each rule has its strength showing its current usefulness in the system, and this strength is constantly assessed [4]. To implement sophisticated learning based on previous solutions, an improved LCS-based algorithm is designed, which consists of the following three steps. The initialization step is to assign each rule at each stage a constant initial strength. Then rules are selected by using the Roulette Wheel strategy. The next step is to reinforce the strengths of the rules used in the previous solution, keeping the strength of unused rules unchanged. The selection step is to select fitter rules for the next generation. It is envisaged that the LCS part of the algorithm will be used as a hill climber to the BOA algorithm. This is exciting and ambitious research, which might provide the stepping-stone for a new class of scheduling algorithms. Data sets from nurse scheduling and mall problems will be used as test-beds. It is envisaged that once the concept has been proven successful, it will be implemented into general scheduling algorithms. It is also hoped that this research will give some preliminary answers about how to include human-like learning into scheduling algorithms and may therefore be of interest to researchers and practitioners in areas of scheduling and evolutionary computation. References 1. Aickelin, U. and Dowsland, K. (2003) 'Indirect Genetic Algorithm for a Nurse Scheduling Problem', Computer & Operational Research (in print). 2. Li, J. and Kwan, R.S.K. (2003), 'Fuzzy Genetic Algorithm for Driver Scheduling', European Journal of Operational Research 147(2): 334-344. 3. Pelikan, M., Goldberg, D. and Cantu-Paz, E. (1999) 'BOA: The Bayesian Optimization Algorithm', IlliGAL Report No 99003, University of Illinois. 4. Wilson, S. (1994) 'ZCS: A Zeroth-level Classifier System', Evolutionary Computation 2(1), pp 1-18.

An Estimation of Distribution Algorithm for Nurse Scheduling

Schedules can be built in a similar way to a human scheduler by using a set of rules that involve domain knowledge. This paper presents an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) for the nurse scheduling problem, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for the assignment of each nurse. Unlike previous work that used Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. we identify and mix building blocks directly. The EDA is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

BOA for nurse scheduling

Our research has shown that schedules can be built mimicking a human scheduler by using a set of rules that involve domain knowledge. This chapter presents a Bayesian Optimization Algorithm (BOA)for the nurse scheduling problem that chooses such suitable scheduling rules from a set for each nurse’s assignment. Based on the idea of using probabilistic models, the BOA builds a Bayesian network for the set of promising solutions and samples these networks to generate new candidate solutions. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed algorithm may be suitable for other scheduling problems.

Enhanced supply chain tracking based on the EPC network: A Bayesian approach

Supply chain tracking information is one of the main levers for achieving operational efficiency. RFID technology and the EPC Network can deliver serial-level product information that was never before available. However, these technologies still fail to meet the managers' visibility requirements in full, since they provide information about product location at specific time instances only. This paper proposes a model that uses the data provided by the EPC Network to deliver enhanced tracking information to the final user. Following a Bayesian approach, the model produces realistic ongoing estimates about the current and future location of products across a supply network, taking into account the characteristics of the product behavior and the configuration of the data collection points. These estimates can then be used to optimize operational decisions that depend on product availability at different locations. The enhancement of tracking information quality is highlighted through an example. © 2009 IFAC.

An in silico approach for screening flavonoids as P-glycoprotein inhibitors based on a Bayesian-regularized neural network

P-glycoprotein (P-gp), an ATP-binding cassette (ABC) transporter, functions as a biological barrier by extruding cytotoxic agents out of cells, resulting in an obstacle in chemotherapeutic treatment of cancer. In order to aid in the development of potential P-gp inhibitors, we constructed a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model of flavonoids as P-gp inhibitors based on Bayesian-regularized neural network (BRNN). A dataset of 57 flavonoids collected from a literature binding to the C-terminal nucleotide-binding domain of mouse P-gp was compiled. The predictive ability of the model was assessed using a test set that was independent of the training set, which showed a standard error of prediction of 0.146 +/- 0.006 (data scaled from 0 to 1). Meanwhile, two other mathematical tools, back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and partial least squares (PLS) were also attempted to build QSAR models. The BRNN provided slightly better results for the test set compared to BPNN, but the difference was not significant according to F-statistic at p = 0.05. The PLS failed to build a reliable model in the present study. Our study indicates that the BRNN-based in silico model has good potential in facilitating the prediction of P-gp flavonoid inhibitors and might be applied in further drug design.