Bayesian methodology for genetics of complex diseases

Genetic research of complex diseases is a challenging, but exciting, area of research. The early development of the research was limited, however, until the completion of the Human Genome and HapMap projects, along with the reduction in the cost of genotyping, which paves the way for understanding the genetic composition of complex diseases. In this thesis, we focus on the statistical methods for two aspects of genetic research: phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology and methods for identifying potentially associated Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) and SNP-SNP interactions. With regard to phenotype definition for diseases with complex etiology, we firstly investigated the effects of different statistical phenotyping approaches on the subsequent analysis. In light of the findings, and the difficulties in validating the estimated phenotype, we proposed two different methods for reconciling phenotypes of different models using Bayesian model averaging as a coherent mechanism for accounting for model uncertainty. In the second part of the thesis, the focus is turned to the methods for identifying associated SNPs and SNP interactions. We review the use of Bayesian logistic regression with variable selection for SNP identification and extended the model for detecting the interaction effects for population based case-control studies. In this part of study, we also develop a machine learning algorithm to cope with the large scale data analysis, namely modified Logic Regression with Genetic Program (MLR-GEP), which is then compared with the Bayesian model, Random Forests and other variants of logic regression.

The benefits of not managing change and not communicating : towards a complex systems view of communication in evolving organisations

The relationship between change in organisations and communication about change in organisations can be analysed as a particular case of a general debate in social theory about the extent to which reality is socially constructed. Social constructivists emphasise the role of language in the construction of social realities, enacted through controlling the message agenda; material determinists assert that economic and social structural factors are more constitutive of reality as seen in strategies emphasising structural and resource interventions. Here we define a third view of language and materiality - one that leads to the potential for a reflexive, experimental approach to change based on the view that organisations are complex evolving systems.

Schooling and refugees : engaging with the complex trajectories of globalisation

This paper examines the complexities associated with educating a mobile and politically marginalised population, refugee students, in the state of Queensland, Australia. Historically, schools have been national institutions concerned with social reproduction and citizenship formation with a focus on spatially fixed populations. While education authorities in much of the developed world now acknowledge the need to prepare students for a more interconnected world of work and opportunity, they have largely failed to provide systemic support for one category of children on the move - refugees. We begin this paper with a discussion of forced migration and its links with ‘globalisation’. We then present our research findings about the educational challenges confronting individual refugee youth and schools in Queensland. This is followed with a summary of good practice in refugee education. The paper concludes with a discussion of how nation-states might play a more active role in facilitating transitions to citizenship for refugee youth.

Generalized binomial Tau-leap method for biochemical kinetics incorporating both delay and intrinsic noise

The delay stochastic simulation algorithm (DSSA) by Barrio et al. [Plos Comput. Biol.2, 117–E (2006)] was developed to simulate delayed processes in cell biology in the presence of intrinsic noise, that is, when there are small-to-moderate numbers of certain key molecules present in a chemical reaction system. These delayed processes can faithfully represent complex interactions and mechanisms that imply a number of spatiotemporal processes often not explicitly modeled such as transcription and translation, basic in the modeling of cell signaling pathways. However, for systems with widely varying reaction rate constants or large numbers of molecules, the simulation time steps of both the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) and the DSSA can become very small causing considerable computational overheads. In order to overcome the limit of small step sizes, various τ-leap strategies have been suggested for improving computational performance of the SSA. In this paper, we present a binomial τ- DSSA method that extends the τ-leap idea to the delay setting and avoids drawing insufficient numbers of reactions, a common shortcoming of existing binomial τ-leap methods that becomes evident when dealing with complex chemical interactions. The resulting inaccuracies are most evident in the delayed case, even when considering reaction products as potential reactants within the same time step in which they are produced. Moreover, we extend the framework to account for multicellular systems with different degrees of intercellular communication. We apply these ideas to two important genetic regulatory models, namely, the hes1 gene, implicated as a molecular clock, and a Her1/Her 7 model for coupled oscillating cells.

Stochastic simulation of chemical reactions in spatially complex media

Discrete stochastic simulations, via techniques such as the Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) are a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of chemical kinetics when there are low numbers of certain molecular species. However, an important constraint is the assumption of well-mixedness and homogeneity. In this paper, we show how to use Monte Carlo simulations to estimate an anomalous diffusion parameter that encapsulates the crowdedness of the spatial environment. We then use this parameter to replace the rate constants of bimolecular reactions by a time-dependent power law to produce an SSA valid in cases where anomalous diffusion occurs or the system is not well-mixed (ASSA). Simulations then show that ASSA can successfully predict the temporal dynamics of chemical kinetics in a spatially constrained environment.

Exchange design patterns for electronic intermediairies

Intermediaries have introduced electronic services with varying success. One of the problems an intermediary faces is deciding what kind of exchange service it should offer to its customers and suppliers. For example, should it only provide a catalogue or should it also enable customers to order products? Developing the right exchange design is a complex undertaking because of the many design options on the one hand and the interests of multiple actors to be considered on the other. This is far more difficult than simple prescriptions like ‘creating a win-win situation’ suggest. We address this problem by developing design patterns for the exchanges between customers, intermediary, and suppliers related to role, linkage, transparency, and ovelty choices. For developing these design patterns, we studied four distinct electronic intermediaries and dentified exchange design choices that require trade-offs relating to the interests of customers, intermediary, and suppliers. The exchange design patterns contribute to the development of design theory for electronic intermediaries by filling a gap between basic business models and detailed business process designs.

Using complex network metrics to predict the persistence of metapopulations with asymmetric connectivity patterns

Almost all metapopulation modelling assumes that connectivity between patches is only a function of distance, and is therefore symmetric. However, connectivity will not depend only on the distance between the patches, as some paths are easy to traverse, while others are difficult. When colonising organisms interact with the heterogeneous landscape between patches, connectivity patterns will invariably be asymmetric. There have been few attempts to theoretically assess the effects of asymmetric connectivity patterns on the dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we use the framework of complex networks to investigate whether metapopulation dynamics can be determined by directly analysing the asymmetric connectivity patterns that link the patches. Our analyses focus on “patch occupancy” metapopulation models, which only consider whether a patch is occupied or not. We propose three easily calculated network metrics: the “asymmetry” and “average path strength” of the connectivity pattern, and the “centrality” of each patch. Together, these metrics can be used to predict the length of time a metapopulation is expected to persist, and the relative contribution of each patch to a metapopulation’s viability. Our results clearly demonstrate the negative effect that asymmetry has on metapopulation persistence. Complex network analyses represent a useful new tool for understanding the dynamics of species existing in fragmented landscapes, particularly those existing in large metapopulations.

Using participatory action research in a community-based initiative addressing complex mental health needs

Objective: This paper describes the first phase of a larger project that utilizes participatory action research to examine complex mental health needs across an extensive group of stakeholders in the community. Method: Within an objective qualitative analysis of focus group discussions the social ecological model is utilized to explore how integrative activities can be informed, planned and implemented across multiple elements and levels of a system. Seventy-one primary care workers, managers, policy-makers, consumers and carers from across the southern metropolitan and Gippsland regions of Victoria, Australia took part in seven focus groups. All groups responded to an identical set of focusing questions. Results: Participants produced an explanatory model describing the service system, as it relates to people with complex needs, across the levels of social ecological analysis. Qualitative themes analysis identified four priority areas to be addressed in order to improve the system's capacity for working with complexity. These included: (i) system fragmentation; (ii) integrative case management practices; (iii) community attitudes; and (iv) money and resources. Conclusions: The emergent themes provide clues as to how complexity is constructed and interpreted across the system of involved agencies and interest groups. The implications these findings have for the development and evaluation of this community capacity-building project were examined from the perspective of constructing interventions that address both top-down and bottom-up processes.

Boundary weaving : the social structure and processes of organizational boundaries

Boundaries are an important field of study because they mediate almost every aspect of organizational life. They are becoming increasingly more important as organizations change more frequently and yet, despite the endemic use of the boundary metaphor in common organizational parlance, they are poorly understood. Organizational boundaries are under-theorized and researchers in related fields often simply assume their existence, without defining them. The literature on organizational boundaries is fragmented with no unifying theoretical basis. As a result, when it is recognized that an organizational boundary is "dysfunctional". there is little recourse to models on which to base remediating action. This research sets out to develop just such a theoretical model and is guided by the general question: "What is the nature of organizational boundaries?" It is argued that organizational boundaries can be conceptualised through elements of both social structure and of social process. Elements of structure include objects, coupling, properties and identity. Social processes include objectification, identification, interaction and emergence. All of these elements are integrated by a core category, or basic social process, called boundary weaving. An organizational boundary is a complex system of objects and emergent properties that are woven together by people as they interact together, objectifying the world around them, identifying with these objects and creating couplings of varying strength and polarity as well as their own fragmented identity. Organizational boundaries are characterised by the multiplicity of interconnections, a particular domain of objects, varying levels of embodiment and patterns of interaction. The theory developed in this research emerged from an exploratory, qualitative research design employing grounded theory methodology. The field data was collected from the training headquarters of the New Zealand Army using semi-structured interviews and follow up observations. The unit of analysis is an organizational boundary. Only one research context was used because of the richness and multiplicity of organizational boundaries that were present. The model arose, grounded in the data collected, through a process of theoretical memoing and constant comparative analysis. Academic literature was used as a source of data to aid theory development and the saturation of some central categories. The final theory is classified as middle range, being substantive rather than formal, and is generalizable across medium to large organizations in low-context societies. The main limitation of the research arose from the breadth of the research with multiple lines of inquiry spanning several academic disciplines, with some relevant areas such as the role of identity and complexity being addressed at a necessarily high level. The organizational boundary theory developed by this research replaces the typology approaches, typical of previous theory on organizational boundaries and reconceptualises the nature of groups in organizations as well as the role of "boundary spanners". It also has implications for any theory that relies on the concept of boundaries, such as general systems theory. The main contribution of this research is the development of a holistic model of organizational boundaries including an explanation of the multiplicity of boundaries . no organization has a single definable boundary. A significant aspect of this contribution is the integration of aspects of complexity theory and identity theory to explain the emergence of higher-order properties of organizational boundaries and of organizational identity. The core category of "boundary weaving". is a powerful new metaphor that significantly reconceptualises the way organizational boundaries may be understood in organizations. It invokes secondary metaphors such as the weaving of an organization's "boundary fabric". and provides managers with other metaphorical perspectives, such as the management of boundary friction, boundary tension, boundary permeability and boundary stability. Opportunities for future research reside in formalising and testing the theory as well as developing analytical tools that would enable managers in organizations to apply the theory in practice.