Dispersal Modeling of Fish Early Life Stages: Sensitivity with Application to Atlantic Cod in the Western Gulf of Maine

As an initial step in establishing mechanistic relationships between environmental variability and recruitment in Atlantic cod Gadhus morhua along the coast of the western Gulf of Maine, we assessed transport success of larvae from major spawning grounds to nursery areas with particle tracking using the unstructured grid model FVCOM (finite volume coastal ocean model). In coastal areas, dispersal of early planktonic life stages of fish and invertebrate species is highly dependent on the regional dynamics and its variability, which has to be captured by our models. With state-of-the-art forcing for the year 1995, we evaluate the sensitivity of particle dispersal to the timing and location of spawning, the spatial and temporal resolution of the model, and the vertical mixing scheme. A 3 d frequency for the release of particles is necessary to capture the effect of the circulation variability into an averaged dispersal pattern of the spawning season. The analysis of sensitivity to model setup showed that a higher resolution mesh, tidal forcing, and current variability do not change the general pattern of connectivity, but do tend to increase within-site retention. Our results indicate strong downstream connectivity among spawning grounds and higher chances for successful transport from spawning areas closer to the coast. The model run for January egg release indicates 1 to 19 % within-spawning ground retention of initial particles, which may be sufficient to sustain local populations. A systematic sensitivity analysis still needs to be conducted to determine the minimum mesh and forcing resolution that adequately resolves the complex dynamics of the western Gulf of Maine. Other sources of variability, i.e. large-scale upstream forcing and the biological environment, also need to be considered in future studies of the interannual variability in transport and survival of the early life stages of cod.

Physical and chemical oceanography in the Arctic Ocean

Data from sections across the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean occupied by the German Research Vessel Polarstern in 1987 and by the Swedish icebreaker Oden in 1991 are used to derive information on the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean halocline and on the sources of the deep waters of the Nansen, Amundsen and Makarov basins. Salinity, d18O and mass balances allow separation of the river-runoff and the sea-ice meltwater fractions contained in the Arctic halocline. This provides the basis for tracking the river-runoff signal from the shelf seas across the central Arctic Ocean to Fram Strait. The halocline has to be divided into at least three lateral regimes: the southern Nansen Basin with net sea-ice melting, the northern Nansen Basin and Amundsen Basin with net sea-ice formation and increasing river-runoff fractions, and the Canadian Basin with minimum sea-ice meltwater and maximum river-runoff fractions and water of Pacific origin. In the Canadian Basin, silicate is used as a tracer to identify Pacific water entering through Bering Strait and an attempt is made to quantify its influence on the halocline waters of the Canadian Basin. For this purpose literature data from the CESAR and LOREX ice camps are used. Based on mass balances and depending on the value of precipitation over the area of the Arctic Ocean the average mean residence time of the river-runoff fraction contained in the Arctic Ocean halocline is determined to be about 14 or 11 years. Water column inventories of river-runoff and sea-ice meltwater are calculated for a section just north of Fram Strait and implications for the ice export rate through Fram Strait are discussed. Salinity, tritium, 3He and the d18O ratio of halocline waters sampled during the 1987 Polarstern cruise to the Nansen Basin are used to estimate the mean residence time of the river-runoff component in the halocline and on the shelves of the Arctic Ocean. These estimates are done by comparing ages of the halocline waters based on a combination of tracers yielding different time information: the tritium 'vintage' age which records the time that has passed since the river-runoff entered the shelf and the tritium/3He age which reflects the time since the shelf waters left the shelf. The difference between the ages determined by these two methods is about 3 to 6 years. Correction for the initial tritium/3He age of the shelf waters (about 0.5 to 1.5 years) yields a mean residence time of the river-runoff on the shelves of about 3.5 ± 2 years. Comparison of the 18O/16O ratios of shelf water, Atlantic water and the deep waters of the Arctic Ocean indicate that the sources of the deep and bottom waters of the Eurasian Basin are located in the Barents and Kara seas.