Changes in frost frequency and desert vegetation assemblages in Grand Canyon, Arizona

The effect of decreasing frost frequency on desert vegetation was documented in Grand Canyon by replication of historical photographs. Although views by numerous photographers of Grand Canyon have been examined, 400 Robert Brewster Stanton and Franklin A. Nims views taken in the winter of 1889-1890 provide the best information on recent plant distribution. In Grand Canyon, where grazing is limited by the rugged topography, vegetation dynamics are controlled by climate and by demographic processes such as seed productivity, recruitment, longevity and mortality. The replicated photographs show distribution and abundance of several species were limited by severe frost before 1889. Two of these, brittlebush (Encelia farinosa) and barrel cactus (Ferocactus cylindraceus), have clearly expanded their ranges up-canyon and have increased their densities at sites where they were present in 1890. In 1890, brittlebush was present in warm microhabitats that provided refugia from frost damage. Views showing desert vegetation in 1923 indicate that Encelia expanded rapidly to near its current distribution between 1890 and 1923, whereas the expansion of Ferocactus occurred more slowly. The higher frequency of frost was probably related to an anomalous increase in winter storms between 1878 (and possibly 1862) and 1891 in the southwestern United States.

Climatic effects on flood frequency: an example from southern Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): After 1960, the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, an ephemeral stream normally dominated by summer floods, experienced an apparent increased frequency of flooding coincident with an increased percentage of annual floods occurring in fall and winter. This shift reflects large-scale and low-frequency changes in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in part associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. ... Questions are raised about the validity of standard methods of flood-frequency analysis to estimate regulatory and designed floods.

Reconstructing 20th century flood patterns in Havasu Creek, Arizona, using historical and dendrochronologic data [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Havasu Creek is the second largest tributary of the Colorado River in Grant Canyon. Perennial streamflow in the creek seldom exceeds 2 cubic meters per second, but it supports an important riparian habitat as well as unique travertine pools and waterfalls that attract over 20,000 tourists annually. Havasu Canyon is also home to over 400 members of the Havasu Tribe. Despite a long history of habitation and recreation in Havasu Canyon, streamflow records for Havasu Creek are extremely limited, making flood prediction difficult.

Monte Carlo simulation of streamflow of the Salt River, Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Evaluations of the impact of climate change (such as a greenhouse effect) upon water resources should represent both the expected change and the uncertainty in that expectation. Since water resources such as streamflow and reservoir levels depend on a variety of factors, each of which is subject to significant uncertainty, it is desirable to formulate methods of representing that uncertainty in the forcing factors and from this determine the uncertainty in the response variables of interest. We report here progress in the representation of the uncertainty in climate upon the uncertainty in the estimated hydrologic response.

Analytical intercomparison results from the 1990 Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission open-ocean baseline survey for trace metals: Atlantic Ocean

“Dissolved” (< 0.4 μm filtered) and “total dissolvable” (unfiltered) trace element samples were collected using “clean” sampling techniques from four vertical profiles in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on the first IOC Trace Metals Baseline expedition. The analytical results obtained by 9 participating laboratories for Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, and Se on samples from station 4 in the northeast Atlantic have been evaluated with respect to accuracy and precision (intercomparability). The data variability among the reporting laboratories was expressed as 2 × SD for a given element and depth, and was comparable to the 95% confidence interval reported for the NASS seawater reference standards (representing analytical variability only). The discrepancies between reporting laboratories appear to be due to inaccuracies in standardization (analytical calibration), blank correction, and/or extraction efficiency corrections.Several of the sampling bottles used at this station were not adequately pre-cleaned (anomalous Pb results). The sample filtration process did not appear to have been a source of contamination for either dissolved or particulate trace elements. The trace metal profiles agree in general with previously reported profiles from the Atlantic Ocean. We conclude that the sampling and analytical methods we have employed for this effort, while still in need of improvement, are sufficient for obtaining accurate concentration data on most trace metals in the major water masses of the oceans, and to enable some evaluation of the biogeochemical cycling of the metals.

Christian education in China : a study made by an educational commission representing the mission boards and societies conducting work in China.

http://www.archive.org/details/christianeducati008935mbp