Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques

The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Combining digital elevation model analysis and run-out modeling to characterize hazard posed by a potentially unstable rock slope at Turtle Mountain, Alberta, Canada

Turtle Mountain in Alberta, Canada has become an important field laboratory for testing different techniques related to the characterization and monitoring of large slope mass movements as the stability of large portions of the eastern face of the mountain is still questionable. In order to better quantify the volumes potentially unstable and the most probable failure mechanisms and potential consequences, structural analysis and runout modeling were preformed. The structural features of the eastern face were investigated using a high resolution digital elevation model (HRDEM). According to displacement datasets and structural observations, potential failure mechanisms affecting different portions of the mountain have been assessed. The volumes of the different potentially unstable blocks have been calculated using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) method. Based on the volume estimation, two and three dimensional dynamic runout analyses have been performed. Calibration of this analysis is based on the experience from the adjacent Frank Slide and other similar rock avalanches. The results will be used to improve the contingency plans within the hazard area.

High precision U/Pb zircon dating of the Chalten Plutonic Complex (Cerro Fitz Roy, Patagonia) and its relationship to arc migration in the southernmost Andes

We report new high-precision U/Pb ages and geochemical data from the Chalten Plutonic Complex to better understand the link between magmatism and tectonics in Southern Patagonia. This small intrusion located in the back-arc region east of the Patagonian Batholith provides important insights on the role of arc migration and subduction erosion. The Chalten Plutonic Complex consists of a suite of calc-alkaline gabbroic to granitic rocks, which were emplaced over 530 kyr between 16.90 +/- 0.05 Ma and 16.37 +/- 0.02 Ma. A synthesis of age and geochemical data from other intrusions in Patagonia reveals (a) striking similarities between the Chalten Plutonic Complex and the Neogene intrusions of the batholith and differences to other back-arc intrusions such as Torres del Paine (b) a distinct E-W trend of calc-alkaline magmatic activity between 20 and 17 Ma. We propose that this trend reflects the eastward migration of the magmatic arc, and the consistent age pattern between the subduction segments north and south of the Chile triple junction suggests a causal relation with a period of fast subduction of the Farallon-Nazca plate during the Early Miocene. Previously proposed flat slab models are not consistent with the present location and morphology of the Southern Patagonian Batholith. We advocate, alternatively, that migration of the magmatic arc is caused by subduction erosion due to the increasing subduction velocities during the Early Miocene.

Chemical and isotopic equilibrium between CO2 and CH4 in fumarolic gas discharges: Generation of CH4 in arc magmatic-hydrothermal systems

The chemical and isotopic composition of fumarolic gases emitted from Nisyros Volcano, Greece, and of a single gas sample from Vesuvio, Italy, was investigated in order to determine the origin of methane (CH,) within two subduction-related magmatic-hydrothermal environments. Apparent temperatures derived from carbon isotope partitioning between CH4 and CO2 of around 340degreesC for Nisyros and 470degreesC for Vesuvio correlate well with aquifer temperatures as measured directly and/or inferred from compositional data using the H2O-H-2-CO2-CO-CH4 geothermometer. Thermodynamic modeling reveals chemical equilibrium between CH4, CO2 and H2O implying that carbon isotope partitioning between CO2 and CH, in both systems is controlled by aquifer temperature. N-2/(3) He and CH4/(3) He ratios of Nisyros fumarolic gases are unusually low for subduction zone gases and correspond to those of midoceanic ridge environments. Accordingly, CH4 may have been primarily generated through the reduction of CO, by H, in the absence of any organic matter following a Fischer-Tropsch-type reaction. However, primary occurrence of minor amounts of thermogenic CH4 and subsequent re-equilibration with co-existing CO2 cannot be ruled out entirely- CO2/He-3 ratios and delta(13)C(CO2) values imply that the evolved CO2 either derives from a metasomatized mantle or is a mixture between two components, one outgassing from an unaltered mantle and the other released by thermal breakdown of marine carbonates. The latter may contain traces of organic matter possibly decomposing to CH4 during thermometamorphism. Copyright (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd.

Injury pattern of the Flash-Ball, a less-lethal weapon used for law enforcement: report of two cases and review of the literature.

Less-lethal weapons are used in law enforcement to neutralize combative individuals and to disperse riot crowds. Local police recently used such an impact weapon, the Flash-Ball, in two different situations. This gun fires large rubber bullets with kinetic energies around 200 J. Although it is designed to avoid skin penetration, impacts at such energies may still create major trauma with associated severe injuries to internal organs. This is a report of 2 patients shot with the Flash-Ball who required medical attention. One could be discharged quickly, but the other required hospitalization for heart and lung contusion. Both patients required advanced investigations including computed tomography (CT) scan. The medical literature on injuries induced by less-lethal impact weapons is reviewed. Impacts from the Flash-Ball can cause significant injury to internal organs, even without penetration. Investigations as for other high-energy blunt traumas are called for in these cases.

Jumping Jack Flash.

A 38-year-old woman presented with blurred vision and "jumping" of the right eye for 7 months. Magnetic resonance imaging of the head was normal. Intermittent intorsion of the right eye was noted on examination, consistent with superior oblique myokymia. She was initially treated with carbamazepine but stopped after becoming light-headed. The diagnosis and treatment of superior oblique myokymia are discussed.

A case for hornblende dominated fractionation of arc magmas: the Chelan Complex (Washington Cascades)

Amphibole fractionation in the deep roots of subduction-related magmatic arcs is a fundamental process for the generation of the continental crust. Field relations and geochemical data of exposed lower crustal igneous rocks can be used to better constrain these processes. The Chelan Complex in the western U. S. forms the lowest level of a 40-km thick exposed crustal section of the North Cascades and is composed of olivine websterite, pyroxenite, hornblendite, and dominantly by hornblende gabbro and tonalite. Magmatic breccias, comb layers and intrusive contacts suggest that the Chelan Complex was build by igneous processes. Phase equilibria, textural observations and mineral chemistry yield emplacement pressures of similar to 1.0 GPa followed by isobaric cooling to 700 degrees C. The widespread occurrence of idiomorphic hornblende and interstitial plagioclase together with the lack of Eu anomalies in bulk rock compositions indicate that the differentiation is largely dominated by amphibole. Major and trace element modeling constrained by field observations and bulk chemistry demonstrate that peraluminous tonalite could be derived by removing successively 3% of olivine websterite, 12% of pyroxene hornblendite, 33% of pyroxene hornblendite, 19% of gabbros, 15% of diorite and 2% tonalite. Peraluminous tonalite with high Sr/Y that are worldwide associated with active margin settings can be derived from a parental basaltic melt by crystal fractionation at high pressure provided that amphibole dominates the fractionation process. Crustal assimilation during fractionation is thus not required to generate peraluminous tonalite.